Economics 122a Fall 2010 Agenda for this week: 1. The classical macro model (Chap 3) 2. How economists measure output/income (Chap 2) 1 Some announcements • Final exam is being debated in the Registrar’s Office. Mistake somewhere. • Course is limited to those on course list on web page. • Sections will begin next week Wednesday 4:50-4:50 and 5:00-5:50 Thursday 4:50-4:50 and 5:00-5:50 Thursday 7:00-7:50 and 8:00-8:50 (TENTATIVE) 2 Now Playing: The Biggest Hit in Economics: The Gross Domestic Product 3 Starring Irving Fisher (Yale) 4 Starring Simon Kuznets (Harvard) 5 Starring Steve Landefeld (Bureau of Economic Analysis) 6 7 Survey of Current Business, August 2010 Inflation as measured by the price of gross domestic purchases* Note: This is a new concept, not in the textbooks. It reflects the prices of domestic purchases rather than domestic product. 8 9 Major concepts in national economic accounts 1. GDP measures final output of goods and services. 2. Two ways of measuring GDP lead to identical results: • Production = income 3. Savings = investment is an accounting identity. • We will also see that it is an equilibrium condition. • Note the advanced version of this includes government and foreign sector. 4. GDP v. GNP: differs by ownership of factors 5. Constant v. current prices: correct for changing prices 6. Value added: Total sales less purchases of intermediate goods - Note that income-side GDP adds up value addeds 7. Net exports = exports – imports 8. Net v. gross investment: • Net investment = gross investment minus deprecation 10 How to measure output growth? Now take the following numerical example. • Suppose good 1 is computers and good 2 is shoes. period 1 Real output q1 q2 Prices p1 p2 Ratio: period 2 to period 2 period 1 1 1 100 1 100 1 1 1 0.010 1.00 0.010 1.00 How would we measure total output and prices? 11 The growth picture for index numbers: the real numbers! Output (109 2005 $) Sector 1958 Computers Non computers 2008 Rate per year Growth Factor 0.00002 157.03200 31.8% 8,049,116.8 2,578 13,155 3.3% 5.1 Source: Bureau of Economics Analysis 12 Growth of sector Some answers • We want to construct a measure of real output, Q = f(q1,…, qn ;p1,…, pn) • How do we aggregate the qi to get total real, GDP(Q)? – Old fashioned fixed weights: Calculate output using the prices of a given year, and then add up different sectors. – New fangled chain weights: Use new “superlative” techniques 13 Old fashioned price and output indexes Laspeyres (1871): weights with prices of base year Lt = ∑ wi,base year (Δq/q)i,t Paasche (1874): use current (latest) prices as weights Πt = ∑ wi,t (Δq/q)i,t 14 Start with Laspeyres and Paasche period 1 Real output q1 q2 Prices p1 p2 Nominal output = ∑piqi Quantity indexes Laspeyres (early p) Paasche (late p) 15 Ratio: period 2 to period 2 period 1 1 1 100 1 100 1 1 1 0.010 1.00 0.010 1.00 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.000 1.010 101.000 2.000 50.50 1.98 HUGE difference! What to do? Solution Brilliant idea: Ask how utility of output differs across different bundles. Let U(q1, q2) be the utility function. Assume have {qt} = {qt1, qt2}. Then growth is: g({qt}/{qt-1}) = U(qt)/U(qt-1). For example, assume “Cobb-Douglas” utility function, Q = U = (q1)λ (q2) 1- λ Also, define the (logarithmic) growth rate of xt as g(xt) = ln(xt/xt-1). Then Qt / Qt-1 =[(qt1)λ (qt2) 1- λ]/[(qt-11)λ (qt-12) 1- λ] g(Qt) = ln(Qt/Qt-1) = λ ln(qt1/qt-11) + (1-λ) ln(qt2/qt-12) g(Qt) = λ g(qt1) + (1-λ) g(qt2) The class of 2nd order approximations is called “superlative.” This is a superlative index called the Törnqvist index. 16 period 1 Real output q1 q2 Prices p1 p2 Ratio: period 2 to period 2 period 1 1 1 100 1 100 1 1 1 0.010 1.00 0.010 1.00 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.00 10.00 10.00 2.000 1.010 101.000 2.000 50.50 1.98 Nominal output = ∑piqi Utility = (q1*q2)^.5 Quantity indexes Laspeyres (early p) Paasche (late p) 17 What do we find? 1. L > Util > P [that is, Laspeyres overstates growth and Paasche understates relative to true. Currently used “superlative” indexes Fisher* Ideal (1922): geometric mean of L and P: Ft = (Lt × Πt )½ Törnqvist (1936): average geometric growth rate: (ΔQ/Q)t = ∑ si,T (Δq/q)i,t, where si,T =average nominal share of industry in 2 periods (*Irving Fisher (YC 1888), America’s greatest macroeconomist) 18 period 1 Real output q1 q2 Prices p1 p2 Nominal output = ∑piqi Utility = (q1*q2)^.5 1 1 Ratio: period 2 to period 2 period 1 100 1 100 1 1 1 0.010 1.00 0.010 1.00 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.00 10.00 10.00 Quantity indexes 19 Fisher (geo mean of L and P) 1.421 14.213 10.00 Törnqvist (wt. average growth rate) 1.000 10.000 10.00 Now we construct new indexes as above: Fisher and Törnqvist Superlatives (here Fisher and Törnqvist) are exactly correct. Usually very close to true. Calculation of output for our example Fisher: Growth = (L x P)^.5 = (1.98 x 50.50)^.5 = 10.0 Tornqvist: = exp[ ln(100/1)*0.5+ln(1/1)*0.5 ] = exp[4.60517 *0.5+0*0.5 ] = exp[2.302585 ] = 10.0 For this, remember that the logarithmic growth of X from 1 to 2 is g = ln(X2/X1). So the index of output is exp(g). 20 Current approaches • Most national accounts used Laspeyres until recently – Why Laspeyres? Primarily because the data requirements are less stringent. • CPI uses Laspeyres index. • US moved to Fisher for national accounts in 1995 • BLS has constructed “chained CPI” using Törnqvist since 2002 • China still uses Laspeyres in its GDP. – Who knows whether Chinese data are accurate??? 21 Who cares about GDP and CPI measurement? Some examples where makes a big difference • Social security for grandma • Taxes for you • Estimated rate of productivity growth for budget – and, therefore, Congress’s spending inclinations • Comparisons of military “power” – Overestimates of Soviet GDP in 1980s led Reagan administration to large increase in military budget – People are now worrying about Chinese power because it is now “number 2” • Projections of emissions in global warming models 22