Societal Trends Facing Law Enforcement
By C. Sidney Heal, M.P.A., M.S.
11/9/2015
American law enforcement agencies reflect the
people they serve. All of the nearly 18,000 state
and local agencies continually adapt to the
Mr. Heal retired as a
values and priorities of the local community.
commander with the
However, they are not immune to larger
Los Angeles,
societal trends. As the new millennium unfolds, California, Sheriff’s
a natural tendency exists to get caught up in the Department and is a
momentary excitement without an awareness of member of the World
changes taking place.
Futures Society and
Police Futurists
Some of these shifts are of such magnitude that
International.
they meet the definition of a megatrend, one of
such importance that it always leads to a change in behavior. Law enforcement must stand ready
to recognize emerging trends and either adapt or become irrelevant. While a case could be made
to highlight many, at least five are becoming irrefutable.
1) Blurring of War and Crime
Years before the September 11 terrorist attacks, American communities had begun to recognize
their local law enforcement agency as the first line of defense against acts of terrorism. Local
police have responded first to nearly every major incident, including the 1995 Oklahoma City
bombing, the 2002 Beltway sniper attacks, and the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Even when
incidents, such as the 2009 shootings at Fort Hood, Texas, took place on military installations,
the responders have included a blend of federal and local law enforcement. Likewise, the
preventative measures focused on identifying and interdicting terrorists and predicting targets
routinely involve the combined efforts—information sharing, fusion centers, joint operations,
terrorism task forces, and regional intelligence centers—of local and federal policing authorities.
U.S. military forces increasingly have become involved in peacekeeping, peacemaking, and
peace enforcement efforts that mimic law enforcement operations. They have recognized and
used the knowledge, skills, and abilities of reservists who also serve as police officers. The
practical knowledge of these dual-role subject matter experts gained from criminal
investigations, gang suppression, crowd and riot control, narcotics enforcement, and nonlethal
options has enabled capabilities and understanding not otherwise available in the armed forces.
Clearly, the line between roles and functions assigned exclusively to law enforcement or the
military has become increasingly blurred. This certainly holds true regarding concerns, like
smuggling, illegal immigration, international drug cartels, and other violent transnational
criminal organizations. The trend takes on greater significance with reports of terrorists’
relationships with drug trafficking organizations and the accompanying spillover violence
associated with their activities.[1] Likewise, criminal cartels now use hardware and weapons,
such as armored vehicles, submarines, armed helicopters, and
rocket launchers.[2]
Today, in their respective environments, law enforcement SWAT
teams are considered on par with military special forces.[3] As a
result local law enforcement agencies have acquired military surplus equipment and weapons,
while nonlethal options now make up part of the armed forces’ arsenal. Accordingly, defense
contractors view the law enforcement community as a new market, and both disciplines actively
recruit from one another.
2) Cashless Society
Although predictions of a cashless society have existed for as long as credit cards, it now appears
likely in the foreseeable future. Surveys reveal that compared with other types of payment, cash
used at points of sale accounts for less than one-quarter of all transactions. Without a need for
cash, average consumers have less than $80 on their person and below $160 in their homes or
cars.[4] This makes people less-lucrative targets for street robberies than in the past. Even
businesses historically targeted for burglaries, such as gas stations, liquor stores, and small
grocery stores, have less cash available today.
Moreover, because cash is a key element for illegal activity, purchases of drugs, stolen goods,
and other types of contraband will continue to become problematic for offenders. Cash
transactions are anonymous, but those involving electronic transfers are not. In the latter case
there are no “off the record” purchases, placing both sellers and buyers at risk.
Of course, this also deters kidnapping for ransom, extortion, terrorist activity, and the operation
of black markets. Similarly, when political corruption is less private, it is commensurately more
risky. With the increased difficulty in hiding income, cheating on taxes becomes more difficult.
Some crimes, like counterfeiting, could become obsolete. Many jails and prisons already forbid
inmates from possessing cash and instead provide them with accounts to deter robberies and
extortion from other inmates. As the need for cash lessens, armored cars and ATMs will grow
scarcer, along with the associated crimes.
A cashless society does not necessarily equate to a crimeless society, although criminals have to
operate more carefully. For example, deposits and withdrawals of $10,000 or more have
mandatory reporting requirements, hindering illegal drug operations. Further, the estimated $20
billion in drug earnings annually crossing the United States/Mexico border makes wire transfers
risky.[5] Even when divided into $100 bills, moving that much money requires 200,000,000
notes, or 22 semitruck-loads of cash weighing more than 220 tons.[6] Drug dealers know this is
impractical and that they must do it by other means, such as money laundering. Similarly,
because prepaid credit cards—less likely to be detected—provide the ability to move large sums
of money anonymously across borders, they provide a “work around,” with couriers carrying
drugs in one direction and “currency” in the other.
3) Transmutation of Culture
A society’s culture is a composite of shared values and beliefs at a given time and place. It is
influenced heavily by members’ religion, politics, customs, language, beliefs, and behavior.
Historically, geography predominantly has defined the extent of a particular culture. But, in
cyberspace, everyone is connected.
If Facebook were a country, it would have the third-largest population in the world, with only
China and India larger.[7] An estimated one-third of recently married couples in the United
States met through online dating, a multibillion dollar industry.[8] People conduct more than 3.5
billion Google searches each day.[9] About 2.6 billion persons send approximately 205 billion email messages daily.[10] Around only since 1992, text messages have become a mainstay of
social interaction with the advent of smart phones and tablets. Each day on average, young
Americans send and receive about 88 texts per person.[11]
Culture seldom changes rapidly; when it does, it usually results from some catastrophe, such as
an invasion, pandemic plague, or environmental change. Not so here. Cyberspace has had an
unprecedented effect on contemporary culture in both speed and scope. Proximity to one another
now is irrelevant, and even traditional obstacles, like language barriers, are mitigated.
This has resulted in a migration of crime, with fraud, identity theft, child pornography, tradesecret theft, industrial espionage, money laundering, credit card theft, and many other offenses
morphing to exploit this new domain. Further compounding the problem, the victims are in the
local community, but the offenders are not—many times not even in the country, which
challenges conventional methods of investigation and
prosecution.
Extremists on cultural fringes with radical ideologies now can
draw support and inspiration from like-minded persons regardless
of physical location. Moral and financial support from conspiracy theorists who propagate their
own perspectives encourage and even enable otherwise unfeasible actions. The greatest terrorist
threats no longer will come from nationalistic terrorists, but, rather, extremists in small cells and
lone actors with a grudge who are nearly impossible to identify and interdict before they take
action.[12] Disturbing side effects include small groups of extremists with access to chemical or
biological warfare agents and leaderless radical movements with members who draw support and
inspiration from the group but act autonomously.
4) The Internet of Everything
Often identified as the “Internet of Things,” it involves the ubiquitous interconnectivity among
gadgets and machines of all types. Using identifiers, detectors, and sensors, every connected item
can provide information as to its individual state, time, and location. Whether a device is hot or
cold, moving or stopped, rising or falling, or fast or slow; when an event occurred, how long it
lasted, where it happened, or how it is oriented; and myriad other factors constitute real-time
actionable information. Everything can be identified, filtered, compared, tracked, combined,
stored, analyzed, and incorporated into algorithms in limitless ways.
Daily, people interact wirelessly with more than 1,000 electronic devices, such as thermostats,
vehicles, door openers, televisions, computers, security systems, telephones, cash registers,
robotic floor sweepers, and many other devices. Estimates predict that in less than a decade,
more than 30 billion devices will be wirelessly connected with one another, increasing to as
many as 100 trillion in the future.[13]
This will have an enormous impact on law enforcement when drivers cannot operate vehicles
while impaired, exceed speed limits, or violate rights-of-way. Stolen property self-reports and
self-locates, and behavior recognition software identifies suspicious conduct and provides alerts
to prevent accidents, assaults, thefts, and terrorist attacks. Technologies, such as facial
recognition, digital cameras, and biometric sensors, collaborate to identify and track child
molesters, parolees, fugitives, and terrorists while also physically banning them from entering
prohibited areas. Dangerous chemicals, explosives, and contraband can be detected instantly, and
the violator, smuggler, or terrorist automatically can be “tagged” to provide an electronic trail to
aid in detection and prevent escape. Abandoned vehicles, packages, and potential bombs
immediately can be found, and countermeasures automatically can be implemented to limit
damage and loss of life.
As people embrace the new technologies in other areas of their lives, so, too, will they interact
with their law enforcement agencies. The contemporary community-oriented policing models
will give way to “collaborative policing,” similar to the “hue and cry” methods of yesterday. In
this model, victims actively participate in functions traditionally reserved for sworn law
enforcement officers. These actions include filling out their own crime reports, conducting their
own criminal investigations, locating their stolen property, and, even, electronically identifying
and locating the assailant or thief.
5) Transfer of Identity
The widespread use of the Internet has resulted in an identity transference in which individuals
have voluntarily moved to cyberspace much of how they are known, recognized, and
remembered, as well as how they interact with one another. Everything, from banking
transactions and shopping to medical records and school assignments, now is done primarily
through the Web.
People’s personal spending preferences, from their choice of
airline seats to their most recent purchase and, even, their favorite
payment method, now routinely customize and simplify their
browsing and purchasing experiences. Social “visits” and competitive games have become blasé.
Increasingly, individuals vote, watch television and movies, send greeting cards, listen to music,
and read magazines and newspapers electronically, instead of by conventional methods and
appliances. They routinely work and socially interact with people they physically never have
met. So much of a person’s identity now is Internet based that an entire “reputation
management” industry is emerging, focused on protection against identity theft, defamation, and
invasion of privacy.
As protectors of the community, law enforcement agencies now face extraterritorial threats.
Objectionable behaviors—those unlawful or simply offensive—gradually will require police
intervention to prevent escalation. Departments’ current expectations to deal with quality-of-life
issues, as well as criminal behaviors, will extend to their cyber counterparts. Future law
enforcement agencies will handle everything, from nefarious cyberbullying and phishing scams
to criminal fraud and online predators.
Interestingly, this trend has historical precedent. Since the nation’s formative stages,
extraterritorial threats have been addressed by expanding the scope of existing law enforcement
organizations and adding agencies specifically focused on the new threat. Bandits hiding in the
wilderness of old eventually were tracked down and prosecuted as their sanctuaries gradually
were reduced and eventually removed. Aside from federal marshals, county sheriffs, and city
police, special authorities, such as school, park, housing authority, and airport police, have
arisen. Bounty hunters in the American frontier enjoyed freedom of movement and focused on a
single criminal or gang; today, cyber bounty hunters do not face restriction by either jurisdiction
or privacy concerns and receive compensation based solely on their success.
Ignoring a problem historically has resulted in people protecting themselves through some form
of vigilantism. The onset of such protectionism already occurs through public shaming for
ethical violations—even lawful ones—by circulating the disgraceful behavior via photos and
videos on social media sites.[14] More organized and sophisticated efforts have targeted online
pedophiles, thieves, and organizations engaged in unacceptable conduct. These have included
denial-of-service attacks, personal and financial information disclosures, sensitive corporate
document leakages, and even public death threats and demonstrations. “Do-it-yourself justice”
will fill any perceived gaps in efforts by legitimate law enforcement entities.
Implications for Law Enforcement
1) Blurring of war and crime: Is the current commotion regarding the
“militarization of law enforcement” a natural consequence of preparing for
terrorist targets, or might it have been avoided by recognizing and
addressing potential concerns from citizens preoccupied with police
practices from an earlier day and age?
2) Cashless society: Should agencies work with private enterprise to
develop collaborative systems for self-initiated and automated crime
reporting, criminal identification, and property- and people-location?
3) Transmutation of culture: Historically, crimes, such as piracy and
terrorism, have required multinational efforts for prevention and
eradication. Will a similar course of action be needed for identity theft,
child pornography, money laundering, and similar crimes?
4) The Internet of Everything: As vehicles become driverless, can law
enforcement ask for compulsory vehicle stops to prevent pursuits?
5) Transfer of identity: What will the law enforcement community need to
address crimes and conduct in cyberspace to prevent vigilantism or physical
spillover violence?
Conclusion
While it is impossible to anticipate every new trend, some are evident—only the implications
remain unsettled. Clearly, law enforcement agencies must be ready as the future approaches.
Their roles, policies, and practices either will adapt or become irrelevant. Undoubtedly, society
will continue to change; to remain effective, law enforcement must prepare to face the new
challenges that result.
Mr. Heal can be contacted at h9692@verizon.net.
Endnotes
[1] U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations,
and Management, A Line in the Sand: Countering Crime, Violence and Terror at the Southwest
Border, 112th Cong., 2d sess., 2012, accessed June 25, 2015,
http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/11-15-12-Line-in-the-Sand.pdf.
[2] Robert J. Bunker, ed., Narcos Over the Border: Gangs, Cartels and Mercenaries (New York,
NY: Routledge, 2010).
[3] John B. Alexander, Convergence: Special Operations Forces and Civilian Law Enforcement,
JSOU Report 10-6 (MacDill Air Force Base, FL: U.S. Special Operations Command, Joint
Special Operations University Press, July 2010), accessed June 25, 2015,
http://publicintelligence.net/joint-special-operations-university-report-on-convergence-ofspecial-forces-and-civilian-law-enforcement/.
[4] David R. Warwick, “The Case Against Cash,” The Futurist 45, no. 4 (July/August 2011): 47.
[5] Twenty billion dollars is a conservative estimate and easily defendable. Sergio Ferragut,
Organized Crime, Illicit Drugs and Money Laundering: The United States and Mexico (London,
UK: Chatham House, November 2012), accessed June 25, 2015,
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/International%20Securi
ty/1112pp_ferragut.pdf.
[6] Each $100 bill is about .0043 inches thick, 2 ½ inches wide, 6 inches long, and about one
gram in weight. Two-hundred million stacked bills would be more than 13 ½ miles high, weigh
more than 220 tons, and occupy more than 89,000 cubic feet. A large semitrailer holds about
4,055 cubic feet.
[7] The latest estimate for Facebook subscribers is more than 980 million. The United States
would be a distant fourth with a population of about 314 million people. “Facebook Users in the
World,” Internet World Stats, last modified May 31, 2015, accessed June 20, 2015,
http://www.internetworldstats.com/facebook.htm.
[8] Recent estimates are at least $2.4 billion. Aziz Ansari, “Everything You Thought You Knew
About L-O-V-E Is Wrong,” Time, June 4, 2015, accessed June 30, 2015, http://time.com/azizansari-modern-romance/; and John T. Cacioppo, Stephanie Cacioppo, Gian C. Gonzaga,
Elizabeth L. Ogburn, and Tyler J. VanderWeele, “Marital Satisfaction and Breakups Differ
Across Online and Offline Meeting Venues,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
of the United States of America 110, no. 25 (June 18, 2013), accessed June 30, 2015,
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/25/10135.full.
[9] “Google Search Statistics,” Internet Live Stats, modified daily, accessed June 30, 2015,
http://www.internetlivestats.com/google-search-statistics/.
[10] “E-mail Statistics Report, 2015-2019,” The Radicati Group, Inc., accessed July 20, 2015,
http://www.radicati.com/?p=12964.
[11] Jeffrey Kluger, “We Never Talk Anymore: The Problem with Text Messaging,” Time,
August 16, 2012, accessed June 30, 2015, http://techland.time.com/2012/08/16/we-never-talkanymore-the-problem-with-text-messaging/.
[12] Michael P. Downing and Matt A. Mayer, “Preventing the Next ‘Lone Wolf’ Terrorist
Attack Requires Stronger Federal–State-Local Capabilities,” The Heritage Foundation, June 18,
2013, accessed June 30, 2015, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/06/preventing-thenext-lone-wolf-terrorist-attack-requires-stronger-federalstatelocal-capabilities.
[13] “More Than 30 Billion Devices Will Wirelessly Connect to the Internet of Everything in
2020,” ABI Research, May 9, 2013, accessed June 30, 2015,
https://www.abiresearch.com/press/more-than-30-billion-devices-will-wirelessly-conne/.
[14] As just one example, a Google search of “stolen valor website” lists more than 275,000 hits,
and “stolen valor” yields nearly 1.6 million.