UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
Expanded Climate Risk Management Technical Assistance Support Project
PROJECT DOCUMENT
Project Brief
The Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) provides technical services to UNDP on
disaster risk reduction and recovery. A major element of these services centres on the provision of
support to increase capacity development to manage climate-related risks. In October 2007, UNDP
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) and Bureau for Development Policy/Environment and
Energy Group (EEG) developed the Planning Framework for Partnership between BCPR and EEG (hereafter
called the Planning Framework) to strengthen collaboration between EEG’s climate change adaptation and
BCPR’s disaster risk reduction efforts (attachment 2). Based on this Planning Framework, BCPR and EEG are
collaborating through the following two initiatives: 1) climate risk management project titled, “Climate Risk
Management Technical Assistance Support Project (CRM Project)”, led by BCPR with EEG inputs; and 2)
climate-proofing project titled, “Integrating Climate Change Risks into Development Planning and
Programming (ICCPP)”, led by EEG with BCPR inputs. Recently BCPR and BDP/EEG developed a
partnership agreement “Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change
Adaptation in Africa” (attachment 3).
The goal of the joint work planning framework is reduced climate and climate change-related risks in
selected high-risk countries. This goal will be achieved through an integrated UNDP approach that
addresses both the short- and long-term impacts of climate variability and change to prevent disasters
and promote development. As a starting point, the joint work planning framework includes a small
set of country-level demonstrations – initially one per region – linked into regional processes and
supported globally: Indonesia, Armenia, Ecuador and Mozambique. After the successful launch of
these initial list of countries, DRT is now proposing to expand the CRM to 22 countries, 6 in Asia
(Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Mongolia) , 11 in Africa (Rwanda, Tanzania,
Kenya, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal and Zambia)
and 5 in Latin America (Dominican Republic, Peru, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Honduras) . At a later
stage, DRT will add 5 SIDS countries to the CRM. The project will undertake multi stakeholder
climate risk assessments in each country, resulting in the identification of risk management priorities
in each case. These are expected to become a basis for further developing or enhancing climate risk
management projects supported by UNDP and other partners. The combined results will advance the
practice of climate and disaster risk management globally, including in approximately 30 countries
identified in the BCPR – BDP/EEG joint plan.
Page 1 of 28
SIGNATURE PAGE
Country: Global
UNDAF Outcome(s)/Indicator(s):
Expected Outcome(s)/Indicator (s):
Solutions generated for disaster risk management and
conflict prevention through common analysis and inclusive
dialogue among government, relevant civil society actors
and other partners (i.e. UN, other international
organisations, bilateral partners)
Expected Output(s)/Indicator(s):
Climate-related risks and risk management priorities
identified to inform country climate risk management and
climate change adaptation program development
Executing Agency:
Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
(IRI)
International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Responsible parties:
UNDP/BCPR, ADPC, IRI, IISD
Programme Period: 2009 - 2011
Programme Component:________
Project Title: Expanded Climate Risk Management
Technical Assistance Support Project
Project Code: _________________
Total budget:
3,897,948
Allocated resources:
____________

Government
____________

Regular /Trac 1.1.3/III USD 600,00
__
Unfunded budget:
3,297,948_
Project Duration: 24 months
The project is technically approved by BPAC but
only USD 600,000 is allocated for 2009
Agreed by ADPC: _____________________________________________________________
Agreed by IRI: _____________________________________________________________
Agreed by IISD: _____________________________________________________________
Agreed by UNDP:_____________________________________________________________
Page 2 of 28
Background:
Throughout human history, climate has played a major role in shaping society. Increasingly human
activity has begun to rapidly alter the earth’s climate. Variability within the climate system generates
extreme events such as floods, droughts and cyclones. Changes in regional climatic averages due to
global warming will be accompanied by changes in the frequency and intensity of these extreme events.
Already a leading contributor to disasters, climatic hazards may well lead to even higher levels of losses
in the future.
Across large swaths of the developing world, exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards leads
to frequent disasters. Losses associated with these disasters in some areas are on a sufficient scale to
undermine development. Disasters are evidence of societal vulnerability to hazards. In hazard-prone,
inhabited areas, disasters and losses are inevitable unless societal exposure and/or vulnerability are
reduced. Managing climate-related risks, therefore, is a key enabler of development. Identifying and
reducing risks associated with climate-related hazards – including drought, floods, cyclones, sea-level
rise and extreme temperatures – can help to protect people, livelihoods and assets, thereby promoting the
achievement of development goals.
UNDP is the UN's global development network, with offices in 166 countries. UNDP's network links
and coordinates global and national efforts to reach the Millennium Development Goals agreed to by
world leaders, including the overarching goal of cutting poverty in half by 2015.
In pursuit of these goals, two of UNDP’s focus areas include helping countries build and share solutions
to challenges related to: 1) Crisis Prevention and Recovery, and 2) Energy and Environment. Work in
these areas is overseen by UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) and the Bureau
for Development Policy’s Energy and Environment Group (BDP/EEG). BCPR assists countries to
develop capacity to better manage disaster risks. BDP/EEG assists countries to develop capacity to adapt
to climate change.
BCPR/DRT and BDP/EEG have developed a joint work planning framework to assist countries to
develop capacity to manage risks associated with climate variability and change (attachment 2). The goal
of the joint work planning framework is reduced climate and climate change-related risks in selected
high-risk countries. This goal will be achieved through an integrated UNDP approach that addresses
both the short- and long-term impacts of climate variability and change to prevent disasters and promote
development. The joint work planning framework includes a small set of country-level demonstrations –
initially one per region – linked into regional processes and supported globally. Two additional work
plan outcomes focus on mainstreaming climate risk management into UN country programming and
national development planning.
The work planning framework pools BCPR, BDP/EEG and UNDP country office human resources into a
combined staff of about 30 people working (in some cases full time) at the national, regional and global
levels. Financial resources for the program come from UNDP core funds and contributions from donors,
including to BCPR’s Thematic Trust Fund and to UNDP programs at the country level. BDP/EEG
manages climate change adaptation and other funding from the Global Environment Facility. Technical
resources are obtained through contracts and partnerships with regional and technical institutions.
Page 3 of 28
Based on the work planning framework between BCPR and BDP, a Climate Risk Management
Technical Assistance Support Project were approved by BPAC in 2008. The project was
implemented by UNOPS and executed by Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC). By this
new initiative, the project expands countries and the partners following the same terms of
reference. The project will be implemented by three non-governmental organizations (details are
specified in the management arrangements).
Situation Analysis:
Climate hazards such as cyclones, drought and flooding account for great majority of natural hazard
related disaster worldwide. Recently climatic change is increasingly being recognised as additional threat
to development. Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, UNDP’s Human Development Report on
combatting climate change and the December 2007 UN Framework Convention of Climate Change
conference of parties meeting in Bali have raised public consciousness and set an agenda for dealing with
climate related risk as a major part of global development.
Climate risk management is particularly crucial for promoting gender equality. In semi-arid areas,
drought poses particular hardships for women and girls who must walk increasing distances for water.
Climatically-triggered outbreaks of epidemic disease disproportionately affect children, posing a
particular burden on women as caregivers. Efforts to promote women’s education are undermined when
cyclones and flooding damage or destroy educational facilities. As women typically have fewer
employment opportunities than men, their livelihood options are typically more curtailed by losses
associated with these types of hazard events.
Consequently many countries are actively seeking to increase their efforts to manage climate related risks
through programmes backed by significant new influxes of financial resources. This increase in activity
and funding must be matched by rigorous scientific analysis of the specific nature of climate related risk
in each case and by efforts to build the required capacity to meet current and emerging challenges.
The current project will develop and apply a methodology that integrates risk over short and longer term
time scales to arrive at an assessment of risk associated both climate variability and change. The results
will feed into set of selected CO programmes as well as inform the practice of climate risk management
in general.
Strategy:
The joint work planning framework between BCPR and BDP/EEG envisions joint work in approximately
22 countries. The current project creates a context in which joint work of a high standard in the selected
countries can be rapidly up scaled into work in the remaining countries. This is accomplished in four
ways:
1. Each country analysis will involve active participation by staff from bureaus, the country office,
and partner organizations at the national, regional and global level.
2. In each country case, the project will engage regional and national organisations as a means of
drawing upon local expertise and knowledge and building capacity for similar work in high risk
regions.
Page 4 of 28
3. The project will produce a set of country reports that will inform the development or
enhancement of a comprehensive climate risk management program in each selected country.
4. The country reports will be integrated into a single global report. This report will be widely
disseminated, providing a vehicle for disseminating the methods and results broadly among
practitioners.
With growing awareness of disaster risks and climate change, many countries have had to consider what
package of institution responsibilities and policies is adequate to confront risks of multiple hazards across
multiple sectors. Many countries are only recently beginning to reconfigure government institutions and
policies to pursue preventive, as opposed to reactive, disaster reduction strategies. Responsibilities for
managing disaster or climate-related risks may be distributed across multiple agencies and departments
with inadequate clarity on mandates and unclear division of labor. Climate risk-related responsibilities in
particular may be fragmented, with climate change falling under the jurisdiction of environment
ministries while shorter-term variability is addressed by entities dealing with disaster risks and
disasters. Policies may be outdated. Available information and the necessary resources may not reach
at-risk communities. Stakeholder analysis and stakeholder-driven research into governance aspects of
disaster and climate risk management can diagnose these types of issues and lead to consensus on
solutions.
The intent of this project is not to launch yet another disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation
project in the selected countries. Rather the project seeks to better position countries to effectively use
available disaster reduction and climate change adaptation resources based on hard evidence concerning
the nature and level of climate related risks to their development plans. This will assist countries in
developing country capacity to capitalize on the flood of new climate-related resources coming on-line
from the Spanish MDG fund, Japan (attachment 3), the UNFCCC Adaptation fund, and other sources.
The defining feature of this project is that it engages the services of three cutting-edge institutional
technical partners, the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), the International Research Institute
for Climate and Society (IRI) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). The
basis for selection of these partners is explained in the section on management arrangements, below. All
three institutions are non-profit and already extensively engaged in climate risk management as part of
their core missions and have extensive networks of regional and national partners whom they can
engage. These partners will draw upon their networks and in-house expertise to implement a technical
terms of reference (attachment 1) in each country, working with the UNDP country offices and national
counterparts.
Page 5 of 28
Project Objective, intended Outputs and Activities:
The project aims to support UNDP’s work in assisting the development of increased capacity in the
selected countries to manage climate and disaster related risks.
Activities are divided into three phases. They focus on 22 high risk countries: [Six countries in Asia,
eleven in Africa, five in LAC with priority given to those in the BCPR-BDP/EEG framework].1
Output 1 – Initial consultations with UNDP staff
The BCPR-BDP/EEG joint work planning framework identifies staff engaged in climate risk
management-related work at the global, regional and country levels. Consultations with these staff by
the selected implementing institution will be used to:
 make initial contacts and establish working relationships
 set initial directions for work in each country
 identify key issues, stakeholders, documents and data sources
 review UNDP project formulation and funding procedures that will be used to support follow-up
work.
Output 2 – Country analyses and reports
Following initial consultations, work in each country will proceed in the following steps:
Output 2.1: Preparation of country work plan
A work plan for each country will identify key climate issues and opportunities for improving
development outcomes through strengthened climate risk management. Each workplan will include
an overview of what is known about the country’s climate and climate impacts related to disaster and
development outcomes with a particular emphasis on gender. The workplan will review previous
research and policy documents related to climate variability and change in the country and identify
initial options for improving climate related outcomes through improved decision-support in key
affected sectors. It will include an overview of key climate risk management institutions in the
country and surrounding region. Finally it will identify initial capacity constraints and opportunities
that affect how climate risk management might be strengthened in the country.
Each work plan will identify key documents that will be reviewed and data sources and contacts that
will be pursued, along with the steps and a timeline for producing country climate risk management
analysis reports. Each work plan will provide a stakeholder analysis identifying key institutions and
individuals that would need to be engaged in country-level work, based on their actual or potential
contributions to improved development outcomes through improved climate risk management. Both
national and regional level stakeholders should be included, the latter to contribute local expertise and
promote up scaling of country-level results. In each case, at least one stakeholder institution with a
special focus on gender and women must be included. Country work plans will be submitted to
UNDP for review and approval.
1
Should circumstances change, a different country may be substituted from the same region in one or more cases.
Page 6 of 28
Output 2.2: Inception workshop/consultancies
Work in each country will be initiated through an inception workshop and/or the issuance of
consultancies to national or regional implementing partners. The mix of workshops and
consultancies should be identified in the work plan and follow logically from the analysis. Workshop
participants and consultants must include representative numbers of women. The purposes of the
inception workshop and/or consultancies are to:
 present and refine the work plan
 initiate key consultations and locate or obtain key data and documents
 sensitize and engage key country-level and regional stakeholders, and
 Organize the country analyses.
Output 2.3: Climate risk and risk management analysis
The centrepiece deliverable for each country consists of a report documenting the realized and
potential but unrealized impacts of climate variability and change on development and priority areas
in which to strengthen climate risk management. These analyses will be generated working closely
with UNDP and UN country office staff and key national and regional stakeholders identified as
described above. Each will consist of an analysis of climate related risks and impacts as described in
TOR Annex I, and of climate risk management challenges and opportunities following an outline
provided in TOR Annex II. This process should involve a clear and objective framework for
identification, prioritization of climate sensitive sectors and the quantification of risks associated with
these sectors. The country reports will include implemental recommendations on which to base
follow-on UNDP-supported projects.
Output 2.4: Draft country report
Results of the country analyses will be presented in country reports including the elements outlined in
TOR annexes I and II. Country reports will be submitted to TAG for first round of reviews,
comments, and revisions and then to UNDP for review and comments. The reports are expected to
have medium-to-high production values and will be required to include a gender component.
Output 2.5: National consultation and prioritization of risk management opportunities
After being vetted by technical experts, the draft country report will be presented at a national
consultation workshop. The workshop will include all key stakeholders including sectors that are
particularly sensitive to climate variability and climate change. The workshop will identify priorities
for climate risk management actions across various sectors, as identified in the draft country report.
The findings presented in the draft country report will provide critical input to the ongoing and
upcoming climate risk management initiatives in each country.
Page 7 of 28
Output 2.6: Final country report
Following incorporation of UNDP comments, each country report will be finalized and submitted to
UNDP for approval. Once approved, 200 copies of each report will be printed and distributed to key
stakeholders as part of the TOR.
Output 3 – Final workshop and report
Output 3.1
Final workshop and report
Upon completion of the draft country analyses, the combined results will be presented and reviewed in a
final workshop in each region (Asia, Africa and LAC). Workshop participants will include 10-15 key
UNDP staff who will participate at UNDP expense, invited experts from other key partner agencies at
international and regional levels, and 2-4 key stakeholders from each participating country and
surrounding region that will be supported under the TOR. The workshop will include an in-depth review
of the methods used across the country cases, followed by presentation and discussion of the country
results. Result from the workshop will be used to finalize the country reports as well as to identify and
synthesize recommendations from experiences across the countries. A final report to which the country
reports will constitute the annexes will summarize the overall findings in each region.
Output 3.2
Dissemination strategy
The proposed climate risk management project aims to approach the analysis of climate risks in an
integrated way. The systematic analysis of risks then informs the identification and prioritization of risk
management actions. It is expected that during the process of implementation significant lessons will be
learned as to how this approach can be implemented in high-risk countries. A dissemination strategy will
be prepared to share these lessons as well as the methodological developments that will take place as part
of this project. Distribution of the final report (500 copies) will be a part of this strategy.
Page 8 of 28
Intended Outcome as stated in the Country/ Regional/ Global Programme Results and Resource Framework:
Outcome indicators as stated in the Country/ Regional/ Global Programme Results and Resources Framework, including baseline and
targets.
Applicable MYFF Service Line:
Partnership Strategy
Project title and ID (ATLAS Award ID):
Intended Outputs
Output 1: Initial consultation
with UNDP staff
Output Targets for
(years)
Overall workplan
Indicative Activities
Responsible parties
1.1 : Make initial contacts and
establish working relationships
(Inception meetings Geneva and
New York)
1.2 : Set initial directions for work
in each country
Selected Institutions/
UNDP BCPR and
EEG Global and
regional staff
1.3 : Identify key issues,
stakeholders, documents and data
sources
1.4 : Review UNDP project
formulation and funding procedures
that will be used to support followup work.
Page 9 of 28
Inputs
Travel and
consulting
services
Output 2 – Country analyses
and reports
2.1: Preparation of country work
plan
Workplans, draft and
final country reports
2.1.1 : Identify key documents and
data resources
2.1.2 : Stakeholder analysis
including gender
2.1.3 : Climate risk and impacts
overview including gender
2.1.4 : Review previous research
and policies
2.1.5 : Identify initial decision
support areas, identify stakeholders
institutions including in region
2.1.6 Identify initial capacity
constraints and opportunity
2.1.7: Submit work plans to UNDP
2.2: Inception
workshop/consultancies
2.2.1 : Present and refine work
plans in each country
2.2.2 : Initiate key consultations
(with key stakeholder,
national/local experts, country
offices)
2.2.3 : Engage key country and
regional stakeholders
2.2.4 : Organise country analysis
Page 10 of 28
Selected Institution
and UNDP/BCPR
and country offices
staff
Travel,
consulting
services and
printing and
distribution cost
of reports,
workshop in
each regions/
countries,
Meeting with
Key
Stakeholders
2.3: Climate risk and risk
management analysis
2.3.1 : Analyze country related risk
and impacts and identify priority
ares (e.g., sectors) to be targeted for
climate risk managment (see TOR
annex 1, attached)
2.3.2: Identify climate risk
management opportunities and
challenges (see TOR annex 1,
attached)
2.4.1: Prepare draft country reports
2.4: Draft country report
2.4.2 : Submit draft to TAG and
revise and then to UNDP for review
and comments
2.5:National consultation and
prioritization of risk management
opportunities
2.6: Final country report
2.5.1: Organize workshop at the
country level
2.6.1 : Finalize country reports
2.6.2: Print and distribute 200
copies to the key country and
regional stakeholders
Output 3 – Final workshop and
report in each region
3.1 : Final workshop and report in
each region
Workshop, draft and final
report
3.1.1 : Organise stakeholder
workshop (one per region)
3.1.2 : Prepare final report for
UNDP review
Page 11 of 28
Selected institution
and UNDP/BCPR
and country offices
staff
Workshop,
consulting
services, final
report printing
and distribution
cost
3.1.3 : Print and distribute 500
copies to key stakeholders
3.2 Dissemination strategy
3.2.1 : Develop a dissemination
strategy
Page 12 of 28
EXPECTED
OUTPUTS
and indicators
including annual
targets
Initial consultation
with UNDP staff
PLANNED ACTIVITIES
List all activities including M&E to be
undertaken during the year towards stated CP
outputs
TIMEFRAME
Q Q
1 2
Q
3
Q
4
Q1
Q2
RESPONSI
BLE
PARTY
Q3
1.1 : Make initial contacts and establish
working relationships (Inception meetings
Geneva and New York)
1.2 : Set initial directions for work in each
country
1.3 : identify key issues, stakeholders,
documents and data sources
1.4 : review UNDP project formulation
and funding procedures that will be used to
support follow-up work.
Source
of
Funds
ADPC/IISD/I
IRI, UNDPBCPR and
EEG global
and regional
staff
Page 13 of 28
PLANNED BUDGET
UNDP
Budget
Description
Travel
Consultant
services
Implementati
on fee
Amount
66,447
Country analyses and
reports:
2.1.1 : Identify key documents and data
resources
2.1.2 : Stakeholder analysis including gender
2.1.3 : Climate risk and impacts overview
including gender
2.1.4 : Review previous research and policies
2.1.5 : Identify initial decision support areas,
identify stakeholders institutions including in
region
2.1.6 Identify initial capacity constraints and
opportunity
2.1.7: Submit work plans to UNDP
ADPC/IISD/II
RI, UNDPBCPR and
country offices
staff
2.2.1 : Present and refine work plans in each
country
2.2.2 : Initiate key consultations
2.2.3 : Engage key country and regional
stakeholders
2.2.4 : Organise country analysis
2.3.1 : Analyze country related risk and
impacts and identify priority ares (e.g.,
sectors) to be targeted for climate risk
managment (see TOR annex 1, attached)
2.3.2: Identify climate risk management
opportunities and challenges (see TOR
annex 1, attached)
2.4.1: Prepare draft country reports
2.4.2 : Submit draft for UNDP review and
comments
2.5.1 : Finalize country reports
2.5.2: Print and distribute 200 copies to the
key stakeholders country
2.6.1 : Finalize country reports
2.6.2: Print and distribute 200 copies to
the key country and regional stakeholders
Page 14 of 28
UNDP
Travel
International
Consultants
Local
Consultants
Printing Cost
3,577,351
Final workshop and
report
3.1 : Organise stakeholder workshop (one per
region)
3.2 : Prepare final report for UNDP review
3.3 : Print and distribute 500 copies to key
stakeholders
ADPC/IISD/II
RI, UNDPBCPR and
EEG Global
and regional
staff
3.2.1 : Develop a dissemination strategy
TOTAL
UNDP
Workshop
Intl.
Consultants
Printing and
publication
254,150
3,897,948
Page 15 of 28
Management Arrangements:
The project will be implemented and executed by ADPC, IISD and IRI. The project will
be implemented by ADPC in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Mongolia.
IISD will implement the project in Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. In Burkina
Faso, Niger, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal and Zambia the project will
be implemented by IRI. In the later stage, LAC region countries will be implemented by
both IRI and IISD based upon their capacity in the region/countries.
The NGO’s were selected through the UNDP CSO Capacity Assessment Tool following
the UNDP project formulation guidelines and procedures. The attached annex 4 is the
capacity assessment of the selected NGO. In addition to this, ADPC was selected in the
initial execution of the project through UNOPS and IRI was the second strongest
candidate in the selection process of the executing agency of the initial project.
The three institutions very well complement each other’s. ADPC has a strong experience
in dealing with Government institutions at national and provincial level; IISD has a
strong experience in dealing at community level, IRI has a very strong academic
background.
Throughout implementation of the project and during formulation of the work plan, the
selected three NGO’s needs to ensure maximum coordination with other concerned
government institutions and partners. The NGO’s should take the responsibility in
implementing projects and report periodically to BCPR/Disaster Risk Reduction and
Recovery Team (DRT).
Financial and narrative reports have to be submitted by the NGO’s for every quarter
during the project implementation in accordance with project cooperation agreement
signed by both parties (UNDP and the NGO).
Monitoring and Evaluation:
The selected firm or institution will provide products for review by technical steering
committee as described in attached TOR (attachment 1). Output targets are listed in the
results framework. In addition, the selected firm or institution will provide financial
reports once every 6 months to UNDP/BCPR and a final report after the completion of
the project as specified in the project cooperation agreement.
At the outset of the project a technical advisory group will be formed to guide the project
at every stage. The Technical Advisory Group (TAG) will bring to bear the knowledge
and expertise of UNDP and its key partner institutions such as the World Meteorological
Organizations. The TAG will periodically meet with the three service provider
institutions (ADPC, IISD and IRI), to establish certain basic requirements have to be met
by all three services providers, particularly related to a clear and objective framework for
identification, prioritization of climate sensitive sectors and the quantification of risks
associated with these sectors, review and evaluate progress, advise on methodological
16
aspects and ensure connectedness with ongoing and upcoming climate risk management
initiatives in the target countries. The TAG will also help ensure that the technical
quality of the work done by service provider institutions is of high quality.
17
Attachment 1 –Terms of Reference
For executing and implementing institutions (IRI, ADPC and IISD)
Terms of reference
Disaster prevention and sustainable development through climate risk management
The following terms of reference are for an institutional contract to support UNDP’s
work in assisting countries to develop increased capacity to manage climate-related risks.
They include background and a rationale, a methodology, descriptions of activities and
deliverables and a timetable.
Background and rationale
Throughout human history, climate has played a major role in shaping society.
Increasingly human activity has begun to rapidly alter the earth’s climate. Variability
within the climate system generates extreme events such as floods, droughts and
cyclones. Changes in regional climatic averages due to global warming will be
accompanied by changes in the frequency and intensity of these extreme events. Already
a leading contributor to disasters, climatic hazards may well lead to even higher levels of
losses in the future.
Across large swaths of the developing world, exposure and vulnerability to climaterelated hazards leads to frequent disasters. Losses associated with these disasters in some
areas are on a sufficient scale to undermine development. Disasters are evidence of
societal vulnerability to hazards. In hazard-prone, inhabited areas, disasters and losses
are inevitable unless societal exposure and/or vulnerability are reduced. Managing
climate-related risks, therefore, is a key enabler of development. Identifying and
reducing risks associated with climate-related hazards – including drought, floods,
cyclones, sea-level rise and extreme temperatures – can help to protect people,
livelihoods and assets, thereby promoting the achievement of development goals.
UNDP is the UN's global development network, with offices in 166 countries. UNDP's
network links and coordinates global and national efforts to reach the Millennium
Development Goals agreed to by world leaders, including the overarching goal of cutting
poverty in half by 2015.
In pursuit of these goals, two of UNDP’s focus areas include helping countries build and
share solutions to challenges related to: 1) Crisis Prevention and Recovery, and 2) Energy
and Environment. Work in these areas is overseen by UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis
Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) and the Bureau for Development Policy’s Energy and
Environment Group (BDP/EEG). BCPR assists countries to develop capacity to better
manage disaster risks. BDP/EEG assists countries to develop capacity to adapt to climate
change.
BCPR and BDP/EEG have developed a joint work planning framework to assist countries
to develop capacity to manage risks associated with climate variability and change. The
18
goal of the joint work planning framework is reduced climate and climate change-related
risks in selected high-risk countries. This goal will be achieved through an integrated
UNDP approach that addresses both the short- and long-term impacts of climate
variability and change to prevent natural disasters and promote development. The joint
work planning framework includes a small set of country-level demonstrations – initially
one per region – linked into regional processes and supported globally. Two additional
work plan outcomes focus on mainstreaming climate risk management into UN country
programming and national development planning.
The work planning framework pools BCPR, BDP/EEG and UNDP country office human
resources into a combined staff of about 30 people working (in some cases full time) at
the national, regional and global levels. Financial resources for the program come from
UNDP core funds and contributions from donors, including to BCPR’s Thematic Trust
Fund and to UNDP programs at the country level. BDP/EEG manages climate change
adaptation and other funding from the Global Environment Facility. Technical resources
are obtained through contracts and partnerships with regional and technical institutions.
The current TOR is expected to contribute to three outcomes related to the goals and
objectives of the joint work planning framework:
1) Evidence-based climate risk management programs established or strengthened in
BCPR-BDP/EEG joint work planning framework demonstration countries. The TOR
includes inclusive, multi-stakeholder country-level analyses that can be used as a basis
for developing or strengthening UNDP-supported programs.
2) Increased climate-risk management capacity of key national and regional institutions.
The BCPR/BDP-EEG joint planning framework calls for engaging regional institutions in
up-scaling and transferring country-level work. Working with the appropriate country
and regional institutions will increase both the quality of the results – by drawing on
regional and local expertise – and build the capacity of key institutional actors.
3) Increased climate-risk management capacity within UNDP and UN country offices.
The TOR include working directly with BCPR, BDP/EEG and UN country office staff in
the identification of climate-related risks and risk management solutions. This will help
to institutionalize an integrated and coherent approach to climate-risk management within
UNDP and in country offices that will continue after the TOR have been met.
Methodology
The TOR describes work with selected global, regional and national stakeholders in a set
of high-risk countries to identify climate-related risks and high-priority risk management
solutions. In each country case, the institution implementing the TOR will:
1) Prepare an initial work plan including a desk review of relevant data and
documents that identifies key issues, opportunities and stakeholders
19
2) Organize an inception workshop at the country level and/or engages local
consultants
3) Collaborate with regional and national stakeholders to undertake an analysis of
climate-related risks, risk management priorities and climate-related development
opportunities
4) Produce, present and distribute a multi-stakeholder report
Combined results from all countries are presented in a final workshop and report. A
dissemination strategy will be developed to assess, document and share the lessons learnt
and disseminate the final report.
20
Activities
Activities are divided into three phases. They focus 22 countries as specified in the
project document.
1) Initial consultations with UNDP staff
The BCPR-BDP/EEG joint workplanning framework identifies staff engaged in climate
risk management-related work at the global, regional and country levels. Consultations
with these staff will be used to:
 make initial contacts and establish working relationships
 set initial directions for work in each country
 identify key issues, stakeholders, documents and data sources
 review UNDP project formulation and funding procedures that will be used to
support follow-up work.
2) Country analyses and reports
Following initial consultations, work in each country will proceed in the following steps,
summarized in the “methodology” section above and expanded here and in annexes I and
II below:
a. Preparation of country work plan
A work plan for each country will identify key climate issues and opportunities for
improving development outcomes through strengthened climate risk management.
Each workplan will include an overview of what is known about the country’s
climate and climate impacts related to disaster and development outcomes with a
particular emphasis on gender. The workplan will review previous research and
policy documents related to climate variability and change in the country and identify
initial options for improving climate related outcomes through improved decisionsupport in key affected sectors. It will include an overview of key climate risk
management institutions in the country and surrounding region. Finally it will
identify initial capacity constraints and opportunities that affect how climate risk
management might be strengthened in the country.
Each workplan will identify key documents that will be reviewed and data sources
and contacts that will be pursued, along with the steps and a timeline for producing
country climate risk management analysis reports. Each workplan will provide a
stakeholder analysis identifying key institutions and individuals that would need to be
engaged in country-level work, based on their actual or potential contributions to
improved development outcomes through improved climate risk management. Both
national and regional level stakeholders should be included, the latter to contribute
local expertise and promote upscaling of country-level results. In each case, at least
one stakeholder institution with a special focus on gender and women must be
included. Country workplans will be submitted to UNDP for review and approval.
21
b. Inception workshop/consultancies
Work in each country will be initiated through an inception workshop and/or the
issuance of consultancies to national or regional implementing partners. The mix of
workshops and consultancies should be identified in the workplan and follow
logically from the analysis. Workshop participants and consultants must include
representative numbers of women. The purposes of the inception workshop and/or
consultancies are to:
 present and refine the workplan
 initiate key consultations and locate or obtain key data and documents
 sensitize and engage key country-level and regional stakeholders, and
 Organize the country analyses.
c. Climate risk and risk management analysis
The centrepiece deliverable for each country consists of a report documenting the
realized and potential but unrealized impacts of climate variability and change on
development and priority areas in which to strengthen climate risk management.
These analyses will be generated working closely with UNDP and UN country office
staff and key national and regional stakeholders identified as described above. Each
will consist of an analysis of climate related risks and impacts as described in Annex
I, and of climate risk management challenges and opportunities following an outline
provided in Annex II.
The country reports will include implemental
recommendations on which to base follow-on UNDP-supported projects.
d. Draft country report
Results of the country analyses will be presented in country reports including the
elements outlined in annexes I and II. Country reports will be submitted to UNDP for
review and comment. The reports are expected to have medium-to-high production
values and will be required to include a gender component.
e. Final country report
Following incorporation of UNDP comments, each country report will be finalized
and submitted to UNDP for approval. Once approved, 200 copies of each report will
be printed and distributed to key stakeholders as part of the TOR.
3) Final workshop and report
Upon completion of the draft country analyses, the combined results will be presented
and reviewed in a final workshop in each region. Workshop participants will include 1015 key UNDP staff who will participate at UNDP expense and 2-4 key stakeholders from
each participating country and surrounding region that will be supported under the TOR.
The workshop will include an in-depth review of the methods used across the country
22
cases, followed by presentation and discussion of the country results. Result from the
workshop will be used to finalize the country reports as well as to identify and synthesize
recommendations from experiences across the countries. A final report to which the
country reports will constitute the annexes will summarize the overall findings. The final
report will also be of medium to high quality and a draft submitted to UNDP for review,
comments and approval. Once approved, 500 copies will be printed and distributed to key
stakeholders under the TOR.
23
Timeline of deliverables
Activity/Deliverable
Due date
Initial consultations with UNDP staff
Within three month
Country workplans
Within six months
Country inception workshops/consultancies
Within nine months
Draft country reports
Within 12 months
Final workshop
Within 18 months
Final country reports printed and distributed
Within 20 months
Final report printed and distributed
Within 24 months
24
TOR Annex I
Climate and its variability are a source of benefits and risks. Although human and natural
systems depend on climate, the exposure and vulnerability of socio-economic or
environmental systems to adverse climatic conditions creates risks of adverse outcomes.
The shelter sector and productive infrastructure are prone to damage during floods and
cyclones. Water supply, agriculture and livestock are often adversely affected by
drought. Hydro-power generation is sensitive to rainfall variability – prone to being
curtailed by insufficient rainfall or triggering flooding when reservoirs overfill.
Infectious disease epidemics, such as of malaria, may be triggered by rainfall and
temperature fluctuations.
In many countries, climate-related impacts in these sectors directly affect achievement of
development goals. Loss of shelter, infrastructure, and livelihoods due to climatic
hazards materially sets back key socio-economic indicators including mortality,
morbidity and economic status. Women may have to walk for hours each day to fetch
water during droughts. Negative, climate-related and anti-developmental outcomes
include asset losses and impoverishment, food insecurity and under-nutrition, disease and
water-related health and livelihood stresses. Managing risks of these outcomes is
necessary in order to realize positive outcomes and achieving development goals.
Natural disasters are increasingly frequent and disaster-related economic losses are rising
globally. Disasters are development failures; development in hazard-prone areas without
regard for hazard exposure and vulnerability increases losses. Losses in turn undermine
development. Breaking this cycle requires identifying and mitigating the factors that
cause disasters. This involves identifying the degree of societal exposure to hazards and
estimating the probable losses that would occur due to the vulnerabilities of exposed
assets to the hazards they are likely to face.
Risks are typically calculated over a specified period, such as the return period of a
hazard or hazards or the nominal lifetime of the exposed asset or assets. With climate
change, it is quite possible, even likely, that underlying assumptions concerning hazard
frequency and severity derived from historical experience may not be a reliable basis for
evaluating even relatively near-future risks. Factors such as rising temperatures, sealevel rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle, and changes in regional precipitation
averages and variability mean that conditions that were formerly rare and extreme could
rapidly become frequent. Medium term sectoral policies and planning for infrastructure,
water supply, energy and land use increasingly will have to take the possibility of local
climate changes into account.
In addition to climate, other variables such as population growth, urbanization, energy
use and technological change are also rapidly reconfiguring patterns of risk. One
climate-related wild card is the pathway of global energy transition – which is likely to,
and indeed must, involve a rapid move from fossil fuels to other energy sources. A rapid
transition to bio fuels, for example, would fundamentally alter the dynamics of world
food production and alter already stressed ecosystems. Thus, climatically and otherwise,
25
the current situation is one of rapidly increasing change, uncertainty and potentially
increasing risk.
Over the 20th century, disasters involving climatic hazards were seven times as frequent
as those involving geo-physical hazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
globally and accounted for nine times as many deaths. The economic losses from
climatically-triggered disasters were three times higher than those from disasters
triggered by geo-physical hazards and the number of people affected 55 times greater.
The frequency of climate-related disasters is rising. Climate change, along with other
socially-produced drivers of both development but also risk, has generated legitimate
concern about the possibility of catastrophes and societal disruption on – by recent
historical standards – unprecedented scales.
The fluidity of the situation complicates planning. Increasing uncertainty suggests that
planning and risk assessment should take into account available information from three
planning horizons:
1) Historical and current
Current patterns of risk based on historical patterns of climate-related disasters and losses
are well established. Examples include but are not limited to:
 east coasts of continents in the affected by tropical cyclones
 sub-tropical semi-arid areas prone to high rainfall variability and drought
 monsoon climates that experience heavy seasonal rainfall and flooding,
punctuated by episodic drought
 flood-prone river basins and coastal areas, especially river deltas.
More remains to be done to assess the implications of these risks and losses for the
achievement of development goals as a basis for targeting appropriate investments in
effective measures that will reduce the barriers they pose to development.
Nevertheless, the most robust and reliable evidence base for risk management decisionmaking is the current situation, as understood through an analysis of historical patterns of
hazard occurrence, exposure, vulnerability and loss. Risk management decisions based
on these factors at a minimum address known and established risks. Furthermore, the
capacity to identify risks and address current risks provides a springboard for addressing
risks and potential losses in the future.
2) Observable trends and trajectories
Climate change, in combination with trends in other socio-economic factors, is
generating observable trajectories that will lead to foreseeable results. Such trends also
provide a reliable basis for planning. For example, declining snow packs and glacier
melt, when evaluated against constant or increasing water demand, can allow planners to
calculate how many years of water supply remain before demand exceeds supply.
Similarly, rising alpine lake levels due to increased glacial melt are measurably
increasing glacial lake outburst flood probabilities. Sea-level rise, caused by observable
26
melting of polar ice caps and thermal expansion of the oceans will inevitably flood lowlying coastal areas. Small island states and densely populated delta regions such as the
Nile and Ganges, inhabited by millions of people, are demonstrably at increased risk due
to rising sea levels. Recent studies also suggest that the intensity of tropical storms may
be increasing, consistent with the physical relationships between rising ocean
temperatures and the processes of tropical storm formation. Coastal cities, already at risk
from these hazards, would consequently become increasingly so.
Changes in climate and hazard frequency or severity are accompanied by other
observable trends. These include population growth, urbanization, economic growth (or
decline, for example, in the case of many African countries), and environmental
degradation. Many of these changes are occurring at the upper end of previously
predicted ranges. Current rates of environmental change, biodiversity loss and species
extinction are very likely to result in a substantially less diverse and resilient global
ecosystem within a matter of decades.
Thus, observable trends and rapidly changing trajectories of socio-economic and/or
environmental indicators provide an increasingly reliable basis for medium- and even
short-term planning and risk management decision-making. Analysis of these trends,
overlaid atop current conditions, provides evidence of near-term probable climate
impacts on development outcomes, with implications for development planning and
policies including the indicated risk management measures.
3) Long-term model-based predictions
More speculative but still useful are analytical inputs for risk identification obtained
through modelling and long-term prediction. These inputs rely on the parameterization
of the key forcings and processes affecting environmental and/or socio-economic change.
The complexity of the interactions between the relevant factors and the inherent
difficulties of prediction as one moves further into the future, may imbue long-term
scenarios of future conditions with an unacceptable degree of uncertainty for some
decision-makers and for some types of decisions. The experience with global warming
and climate change itself provides an illustration, however, of the value – and the limits –
of these types of predictions.
On the one hand, simulations of the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere decades ago raised the spectre of global climate change and directly led to a
concerted effort to better measure and model the relevant processes and results. On the
other, uncertainties in the models have provided grounds, justified or not, for inaction in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions or stepping up climate risk management efforts.
Increasing convergence, however, between predictions and observed trends has
strengthened confidence in both information sources. This example demonstrates that
predictions of future conditions, when combined with current conditions and observable
trends, can usefully inform development planning and risk management.
27
TOR Annex II
Preventing disasters and protecting development through climate risk management
requires a programmatic approach embedded in a context of institutional capacity
development and appropriate policies. Reinforcing the necessary ingredients, or putting
some or all of them in place, can be broken out into a series of analytical steps that
support formulation of a set of supporting institutional, policy and programmatic
responses:
1) Climate analysis – This step, described in more detail in Annex I, compiles what is
known about current climate in a particular location of interest. Characteristics of interest
include climate variability and trends, the degree of climate predictability over various
time scales, how the climate might change, and the level of certainty associated with
specific changes that could affect development.
2) Identification of climate-related risks and impacts – This step, described in more detail
in Annex I, establishes the actual and potential impacts of climate variability and change
currently (based on historical information), in the medium-term (based on the current
situation and observed trends) and over the longer term (based on projections and
predictions). It provides a basis for reducing and transferring the specific risks that most
threaten priority aspects of development.
3) Decision analysis and support – For specific decision contexts – from protecting and
improving women’s livelihood opportunities to stabilizing agricultural yields to planning
infrastructure, this step supports specific decision-makers to make specific decisions with
relevant scientific information about climate variability and change. This tailored
information allows specific risks to be managed and specific goals to be achieved.
Specific projects and programs to manage risks in pursuit of the achievement of these
goals can then be strengthened or put in place.
4) Institutions and policy research – With growing awareness of disaster risks and
climate change, many countries have had to consider what package of institution
responsibilities and policies is adequate to confront risks of multiple hazards across
multiple sectors. Many countries are only now beginning to reconfigure government
institutions and policies to pursue preventive, as opposed to reactive, disaster reduction
strategies. Responsibilities for managing disaster or climate change-related risks may be
distributed across multiple agencies and departments with inadequate clarity on mandates
and unclear division of labor. Available information and the necessary resources may not
reach at-risk communities. Stakeholder-driven research into governance aspects of
disaster and climate risk management can diagnose these types of issues and lead to
consensus on solutions.
5) Capacity development – Climate change and disasters pose difficult and new
challenges that no country is fully capable of handling. Assessment of the required
capacities – in light of assessed risks, development priorities, and desired institutional and
policy changes – provides a basis for capacity development to meet identified challenges.
28