PAF 101
Module 3, Lecture 1
A problem well stated is a
problem half solved.
Charles F. Kettering
Class Agenda
• Announcements
• Overview
3/23)
of Module 3 Paper (due
Dale Carnegie Fireside Chat
• Featuring
Ray
Google Alerts
https://www.google.com/alerts
Use Google Alerts to stay informed
about your societal problem.
What should I do with my graded
module?
• KEEP
IT
• You can use the same policies/players
in later modules
• ALSO, if you wish to be a TA next
semester, you MUST keep your
modules.
What should I do with the
Maxwell Manual for 101?
• KEEP IT
• If you plan to be a Policy Studies major
• If you want to be a TA
• If you are a winner
•
Sell it if you are a loser
Competition Points
Winners
Losers
As of 2/26/2016
Group #
Points
2
15
8
15
14
15
18
15
15
14
12
12
6
11
7
11
9
11
4
10
11
10
16
9
5
8
10
8
1
8
17
8
3
7
13
7
Basic Diagram
Players
A
Societal
Problems
Chapter 5
Module 5
B
C
Module 4
Public
Policy
Chapter 6
Choosing Specific Societal Problem
• Must
be a measurable societal condition
• Must
be at a local area (not federal, not
state)
• Try
to connect it to your community service
or previous experience or contact
•A
policy you don’t like is not a societal
problem
OVERVIEW OF 5.1-5.3
• Take
out your printout and turn to
Exercise 5.1 to follow along as I give
an overview of 5.1-5.3
Problem Solving Framework
1.
Describe the Societal Problem (Ex. 5.1)
2.
Research Your Societal Problem (Ex. 5.2)
3.
Evidence of the Problem (Ex. 5.3)
4.
Causes of the Problem (Ex. 5.4)
5.
Current Public Policy (Ex. 5.5)
6.
Role of Interest Groups (Ex. 5.6)
7.
Identify a Policy & Policy Tool Alternatives (Ex. 6.3)
8.
Select Policy Tool Alternatives on Basis of Effectiveness and Feasibility
(Ex. 6.3)
Module 4: Examines Effectiveness
Module 5: Examines Political Feasibility
Spine of the Module Three Paper
• 5.1a
Define the societal problem
• 5.3
Evidence (Worth 30 points)
• A trend line graph (Minimum of 3 data points, 1
must be real)
• A quote from a player, stakeholder, or expert
you interviewed
• A quote from a published, printed, or electronic
source
•
6.3 Policy to deal with the problem
Finding a Variable-The First Key
• You
must have data to measure your
societal problem.
• Don’t confuse it with policies.
• Here are some examples. State the
societal problem.
Onondaga Community Indicators:
Crime
Onondaga County Violent Crime, 2005-09
120
Offenses per 10,000 people
100
80
60
43
42
40
38
37
2006
2007
2008
2009
40
20
0
2005
Year
Source: *NYS Division of Criminal Justice Services Crime in New York State: 2009
FBI Crime in the US Reports 2005-09
Onondaga Community Indicators:
Economy
Onondaga County
Economic Development Expenditures, 2000-09
Money Spent (in millions of dollars)
$25
$21
$20
$16
$16
2003
2006
$15
$10
$6
$5
$2000
Year
Source: New York State Office of the Comptroller
2009
Onondaga Community Indicators:
People
Onondaga Community Indicators:
Environment
Recycling Rates, Onondaga County, 2005-09
100%
90%
Recycling Rate
80%
70%
66%
66%
65%
66%
64%
2005
2006
2007
Year
2008
2009
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Onondaga County Resource Recovery Agency, Recycling Reports: 2005-09
Onondaga Community Indicators:
Child Abuse
Child Abuse and Mistreatment, 2000-08
25%
20%
20%
19%
20%
18%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2000
2005
2007
2008
Source: New York State Office of Children and Family Services - National Child Abuse and
Neglect Data System (NCANDS).
*Graph not to scale
Onondaga Community Indicators:
Health
Common Trend Line Graph Mistakes
•
DON’T include gridlines
•
DON’T include a legend
•
DO label the title and both axes
•
DO include a source
•
DO bold the title
•
Put numbers on data points
•
Start at zero on Y-axis
•
If using an Education policy, use academic years (ex.
2008-2009, 2009-2010)
Trend Line Homework
• Create
a trend line graph from the information given
on the next slide
•
http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/paf101/Module_3.html
• Due
Monday, 3/7.
• Use
video on PAF 101 website under Module 3 tab to
help you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXgWhIaeyWs
Microsoft for Macs
• Microsoft
Office is FREE for all SU
students
• Be a winner and download Microsoft
Office
• Click here for Microsoft!
Avoid Mod. 3 Paper Confusion
CONFUSION OVER:
• Effects of the Problem (5.1b)
• Evidence of the Problem (5.3)
• Causes of the Problem (5.4)
• Effectiveness vs. Feasibility (6.3c)
EVIDENCE VS. CAUSES
• Good
example of a cause: “Students are
dropping out because the high school
curriculum sucks.”
• Bad
example of a cause: “The graduation
rate in the academic year of 2011 to 2012
was 45%.”
Why is this a bad example of a cause?
Where does it belong in Ch. 5 exercises?
EVIDENCE vs. CAUSES Cont.
• EVIDENCE:
Confirms the existence and the extent of
the societal problem
• When presenting evidence include at least one of the
following:
• Statistics showing change over time and/or
comparing different localities/groups
• Expert opinions
• Examples/Case Studies
• CAUSES: The reasons for the societal problem
(DO NOT confuse causes with effects)
A Word About Causes
• We
•
use the term all the time
But, causes can never be proven, EVER
• Correlation
• E.g.
does not mean causation but hints at it.
the high school graduation rate is low because
school funding is too low
Why Cause Is Used Instead of
Correlation!
The reason people and politicians and
journalists confuse causes with
correlation is because they are (fill in
the blank).
Spurious Correlations
Other Examples of Spurious
Correlations
• Spurious
correlations
•Use Experts and Players
•Use the Web Research Link
•Use published material
For Next Class
• Work
on Player and Expert Contacts
• Continue work on 5.1-5.3
• Changing seats next class