IMPROVEMENT IN INDONESIA GDP
ESTIMATION BY PRODUCTION APPROACH
Workshop on National Accounts for Asian Member Countries
of The Organization of Islamic Conference
1-2 December 2008
Ankara, Turkey
Presented by Wiwiek Arumwaty
Director of Statistics Analysis and Development.
Statistics Indonesia
1
A brief about Indonesian GDP
 Approaching:
– Production side (Industrial sectors)
– Expenditure side
 Periods:
– Annually
– Quarterly (Calendar year)
 Locations:
– National level
– Regional level (Provincials and Municipality)
30 provincials, 450 municipalities
2
 Base Year:
– 1960, 1973, 1983, 1993 and 2000
 Classification:
– Production side (9 sectors, 58 sub-sectors, about 200
commodities and commodity groups)
– Expenditure side (6 components)
 Source of data:
– Primary data
– Secondary data (Administration data provided by various of
institution)
 Basic data produced:
- Output minus Intermediate Input = Value Added
- Current and Constant estimation
- Data derivation: nominal value, economic structure, economic
growth, deflator (price changes), and per-capita
3
The Chronology
 Since 1962 the (BPS-Statistics Indonesia) institutionalized
compiling the National Income Statistics of Indonesia
annually, supervised by United Nations
 In 1962 the first publication of Indonesian “National
income” data released which covering the period of 19581962 classified by industrial origin at current and
constant 1960 prices.
 In 1966 BPS produced comprehensive publication
presenting data instead of GDP, GNP also on net
domestic product (NDP), by using constant 1960 prices.
(classified into 11 production sectors)
4
 In 1967 BPS published the second publication covering
the period of 1960-1964 in the same format and system of
presentation as the first ones. Instead of presenting by
national language (bahasa Indonesia) the publication also
presents a brief description in English.
 in 1970 entitled “National Income” of Indonesia covering
period 1960-1968 more elaborating the gross domestic
product (GDP) categorized by industrial origin as well as
expenditure, both at current and constant 1960 prices.
 In 1973, the latest national income publication which using
constant 1960 prices was the third publication covering the
years 1968-1973.
5
 In 1980, a new series of Indonesian GDP was estimated
by using 1973 as the base year. Both industrial sectors
as well as expenditure were classified to its components
accordingly (9 production sectors and 6 components
expenditure)
 The publication entitled main tables of National Income
of Indonesia 1973-1979. The series described concepts
and definitions of macro economic aggregate, analyzed
the structural changes and sectoral growth.
 The format of this series of “national income” statistics
continued to be published by BPS until the period of
1979-1983.
6
 The implementation of Five-year Development Planning
Programs facilitate BPS to adjust and change benchmark
year estimate from constant prices 1973 to be 1983.
 In 1984, BPS published the series of Indonesia National
Income, with the 1983 as a new benchmark year. The
series of that statistics covering the years of 1983-1993
 Following the commitment on every 10 years as base
year cycle, 1993 has been chosen as a new base year
for the series of national income statistics covering
periods 1988-1995.
 From 1997 to 1999 was the Indonesian economic crisis
era. The performance of macro economic condition in
that period was so worth which also reflected on national
accounts data as well as GDP
7
 In 2001, after the economic crisis era a new series of
GDP was estimated by using 2000 as the constant
prices. Various basic data and information on economic
statistics was collected to support the estimation of GDP
showing the economic recovery process.
 In the meantime quarterly GDP data become an
importance information. In line with compilation on annual
GDP, quarterly base also estimated to present the
economic phenomenon periodically and consistently .
 The latest publication of GDP uses 2000 as new base
year available covering data series 2000-2007, while
quarterly GDP release data until Q III-2008.
8
About GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Products)
 Since 1970’s there has been a growing interest to study
on regional economic in Indonesia. In August 1970 BPS
and the Faculty of Economic University of Indonesia in
Jakarta took initiative to coordinate and establish the
professional societies organization which is called
Regional Income Research Group (RIRG).
 This situation stimulate BPS and its branch offices was
coordinating data collection, formulating the standard
methodology and carried out special surveys and studies
to support the estimation of Regional Product in every
Province in Indonesia
9
 For the first time in 1973 BPS published the Gross
Domestic Product of the Region (GRDP) of 17
Provinces in Indonesia covering data for 1969-1971.
This publication present GRDP of the provinces
classified by industrial origin (sectoral side) both at
current and constant 1969 prices.
 Periodically BPS also published the GRDP of all
provinces in Indonesia by industrial origin and by
expenditure category compiled from individual province
publication, followed by the GRDP of regencies
(provincial) and Municipalities (kabupaten/kota).
10
 Estimating GRDP at constant prices in every
province/municipality has also been adjusted to the
national benchmark year 1983, 1993 and then 2000.
This will facilitate the analysis and comparative study of
regional economy in Indonesia.
 The latest publication on the regional income in
Indonesia, 2000-2006, one year lag published after the
national GDP published.
 Nowadays, BPS branch offices in the province take an
important role in the development of regional economic
studies supported by Regional Development Plan of
Local Government and Universities in the region.
11
Data improving process
 Various studies and special surveys related to economic
indicators conducted by BPS and other institutions, as well
as availability of up-to-date data from various sources
complemented the methodology improvement used to
estimate the Indonesian GDP in current and constant price
 Each sector/sub-sector/commodities has its own
approach/method used to estimate the output as well as
the value added. Basically most data on volume, price,
input structure, used to estimate the value added, but
some activities using the administration data (financial
report) such as: financial sectors (banks, insurance,
leasing, pawnshop, stock exchange etc.) including data on
government income and expenditures.
12
 The computation methodology for a particular variable
may change relating to the availability of data sources
 Improving not only on the quantity data but also quality
such as data on volume, price, input structure and other
information relating on GDP (ex: coverage of the
estimation, distribution process )
 As new data sources become available then old ones
are eliminated. When only partial data are available, any
such information and supplement data used to complete
the estimation.
 Before annual GDP data available, the quarterly GDP for
various commodities is estimated for the relevant quarter
to support the figure
13
 The years which I-O table was constructed (2005 is
the newest ones), value added in GDP will be
estimated base on it. I-O table only compiled once
every five years (1971, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995,
2000, and 2005)
 Revision of estimation data provided on each
publication categorized into its phase estimation:
preliminary, very preliminary & fixed figures
 Plausibility checks are conducted for estimates at both
production side as well as expenditure side, both for
national and regional data on GDP
14
“Gaps/Inconsistencies data”
• The total of GDP from production side (Y) > than the
total GDP from expenditure side (E)
 leads to discrepancy statistics
• GDP (National) > than Σ GRDP (both provinces and
municipalities) which estimated independently
 leads to political debate
• Previously estimation of Value added on GDP < Value
added in the I-O Table (except for the year 2005 and the
years after)
15
Aggregate data on GDP
2008
2005
Total GDP (billion rp)
Growth (%)
2.774.281
6,57
2006
3.339.480
6,13
2007
3.957.404
6,92
(sem 1)
2.352.990
6,85
Structure of
production(%)
- Agriculture
13,13
12,97
13,83
14,68
- Mining & Quarrying
11,14
10,97
11,14
11,37
- Manufacturing
27,41
27,54
27,01
27,20
- Others
48,32
48,52
48,02
46,75
16
2005
2006
2007
2008
(sem 1)
Structure of expenditure
(%)
- Private Consumption
64,36
62,66
63,46
61,48
8,11
8,63
8,33
7,74
- Investments
25,08
25,39
24,86
26,06
- Export
34,07
31,03
29,36
30,80
- Import
(29,92)
(25,62)
(25,33)
(28,87)
- 1,70
- 2,09
- 0,69
2,79
- Gov’t Consumption
- Statistical Disc
17
2006
Mid-year Population
(millions)
2007
222,2
225,1
GDP/capita
1.662,6
1.947,1
GNP/capita
1.591,6
1.870,9
18
Conclusions
 Under supervision of United Nations (UNSD and
ISWGNA), Indonesian GDP has been compiled since
1960 until now periodically
 In line with the production approach (sectoral side), GDP
from expenditure approach also developed due to have
the whole information on economic perfomance
 Several base years has been applied anticipating the
economic structural changes and its behavior
 Instead of annually figure the Indonesian GDP and
GRDP (provinces only) also estimated on quarterly basis
(since 2000)
19
 In supporting GDP on the National level, simultaneously
GRDP also estimated for the regional level (33 provinces
and 450 municipalities)
 Various studies and special surveys related to economic
statistics indicators have been done, as well as up-todate data availability from the sources,
 Reviewing and improving the methodology used on GDP
and GRDP both in current and constant price estimation
has been done regularly
 Neither annual GDP nor quarterly GDP publications do
not give a specification type of value added components.
Estimated every 5 years for the whole economy as well
as various of sectors separately.
20
 Table Input-Output data used to improved the quality of
Indonesian GDP since the balancing of Supply and
Demand could be controlled. I-O table showing the
Interrelationship of industries in an economy with respect
to the production and uses of their products.
 Starting in 2005 the value added derived from I-O table
has similar with the value added estimated in GDP
 It is to be noted, that not all of the SNA’93 concept
recommended might be used to improve the quality of
Indonesian GDP. In 2000 improving data was focused on
research and development products and Information
Technology products (soft ware and networking) which
included as part of the output of business sector.
21
Trends of Indonesia GDP and GDP per-capita
22
Indonesian GDP (current and constant 2000 prices), 1990-2007
4500
PDB ADHB
4000
3500
Triliun Rupiah
3000
2500
PDB ADHK
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
23
Indonesian Economic Structure. 2000-2007
100.0
90.0
80.0
% (persen)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan dan Perikanan
Industri Pengolahan
Bangunan
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
Jasa - jasa
2003
2004
Tahun
2005
Pertambangan dan Penggalian
Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih
Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran
Keuangan, Persewaan & Js. Persh.
2006
2007
24
Per-capita GDP (current, incl and excl Oil), 2000-2007
20
PDB Perkapita ADHB dengan Migas
18
PDB Perkapita ADHB Tanpa Migas
16
14
Juta Rupiah
12
10
8
6
4
2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
25
Per-capita GDP (constant 2000, incl and excl Oil). 2000-2007
10
PDB Perkapita ADHK dengan Migas
9
PDB Perkapita ADHK Tanpa Migas
8
7
Juta Rupiah
6
5
4
3
2
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
26
Provincial Poverty Distribution in 2007
000 person
27
Thank You for Your Attention….
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