CHIPOTLE By Catherine Mangan, Eric Roth, Benjemin Gilsdorf, Daniela Dedvukaj, Jesse Montie, Angelina Pechota Executive Summary Chipotle is a company that has made a strong, positive impact on the fast food market. Because of the strategic planning that Chipotle has incorporated throughout the production process from going healthy and organic, the company has been and continues to be successful. The financial and popularity increase can be seen throughout the following data and figures from 2011-2013. History: Timeline of Chipotle 1993-First Chipotle opened at a former Dolly Madison ice cream location. 1995-Added second and third Chipotle locations. 1996-Opened five more Denver area restaurants. 1998-Chipotle brings on outside investors. 1999-First Chipotles opened outside of Colorado: Minneapolis, MN and Columbus, OH. 1999-Steve Ells learns about the way most pork is raised in the US. Decides to do things in a different way. 2000-Started serving naturally raised pork. As of 2010, 100% of Chipotle is naturally raised. 2002-Started serving naturally raised chicken. Chipotle now gets 100% of their chicken from farms that meet their high standards. 2004-Ahead of the curve, Chipotle starts using zero trans-fat frying oil. 2006-Chipotle goes public on New York Stock Exchange. 2007-Over 60% of Chipotle’s beef is naturally raised. They now serve 100% naturally raised beef in their restaurants. 2007-Chipotle stops using cheese or sour cream with rBGH. 2008-As of 2010, 40% of Chipotle’s black beans are certified organic and their local food initiative takes off. 2009-Steve Ells testifies before Congress to try to eliminate the use of antibiotics in ranching. Source: http://www.chipotle.com/en-us/chipotle_story/chipotle_story.aspx History-Letter from the CEO When I opened the first Chipotle in Denver, Colorado I certainly didn’t have any intention of opening more than just one restaurant. I just wanted to build a place where you could eat delicious food made of the finest ingredients quickly and affordably. As it turns out, it was an idea people could get behind. As Chipotle began to grow and expand, I learned quite a bit about the way most of the food in the US is produced and processed --- and what I learned was pretty grim. Pigs are raised in stark confinement, produce is grown on vast factory farms with little or no regard for the environment, and dairy cows are confined and injected with hormones that can make them ill in an effort to increase their milk production. But I also learned that there is a better way. I met ranchers and farmers dedicated to raising livestock and growing produce using responsible, respectful, and sustainable techniques. By partnering with these producers we have increased the amount of naturally raised meats and responsibly grown produce we purchase exponentially. We are proud of our accomplishments, but there is still a long way to go. "Food with Integrity" is our commitment to always look closer, dig deeper, and work harder to ensure that our actions are making things better, not worse. It’s our promise to run our business in a way that doesn’t exploit animals, people or the environment. It is the philosophy that guides every decision we make at Chipotle. Thanks for your support, and check back on our progress. We are excited about what the future holds. Steve Ells Source: http://www.chipotle.com/en-us/chipotle_story/steves_story/steves_story.aspx Balance Sheet in millions Balance Sheet Chipotle Date: Assets 2013 Current Assets Cash And Equivalents Accounts receivable Other Receivables Inventory Prepaid expenses Short-term investments Deferred Tax Assets, Current Total current assets Fixed (Long-Term) Assets Gross Property Plant And Equipment Accumulated Depreciation Total fixed assets Other Assets Goodwill Long-Term Investments Other Long-Term Assets Total Other Assets Total Assets 12/31/2013 2012 (in millions) 2011 323.2 24.0 3.7 13.0 34.2 255.0 13.2 666.3 322.60 16.80 9.60 11.10 27.40 150.30 8.90 546.70 401.2 8.4 8.9 21.4 55.0 6.2 501.1 1,490.6 (527.4) 963.2 1,311.60 (444.90) 866.70 1,122.1 (370.2) 751.9 21.9 313.9 43.9 379.7 21.90 190.90 42.60 255.40 21.9 128.2 22.0 172.1 2,009.2 1,668.80 1,425.1 Balance Sheet Continued Liabilities and Owner's Equity Current Liabilities Accounts payable Accrued Expenses Current taxes payable Unearned revenue Current portion of Long-Term Debt/Capital Lease Current portion of Capital Lease Obligations Total current liabilities Long-Term Liabilities Capital Leases Deferred income tax Other Non-Current Liabilities Total long-term liabilities Total Common Equity Common Stock Additional Paid In Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Comprehensive Income and Other Total owner's equity Total Liabilities and Owner's Equity Common Financial Ratios 59.0 108.7 31.5 199.2 58.70 105.40 22.70 186.80 46.4 88.7 4.2 18.0 0.1 0.1 157.5 55.4 216.3 271.7 48.90 186.90 235.80 3.5 64.1 155.7 223.3 0.4 919.8 1,276.9 (660.4) 1.6 1,538.3 0.30 816.60 949.50 (521.50) 1.30 1,246.20 0.3 676.7 671.5 (304.4) 0.2 1,044.3 2,009.2 1,668.80 1,425.1 {42} {42} 2013 2012 2011 Debt Ratio (Total Liabilities / Total Assets) Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) Working Capital (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) Assets-to-Equity Ratio (Total Assets / Owner's Equity) 0.23 3.34 467 1.31 0.25 2.93 360 1.34 0.27 3.18 344 1.36 Acid test or Quick Ratio (Cash + Accounts Rec/Current Liabilities) 1.74 1.82 2.60 Debt-to-Equity Ratio (Total Liabilities / Owner's Equity) 0.31 0.34 0.36 Balance Sheet Continued The larger the current ratio, the more liquid the firm and the current ratio should be at least greater than one and preferably close to two. Chipotle has been higher than two for the past three years meaning it would be easier for the firm to repay its short-term liabilities with the cash raised from the sale of its short-term assets. Chipotle's Quick Ratio has been considerably high compared to the industry average which is .63. The stronger the balance sheet for Chipotle with them having a higher number. Quick Ratio measures proportion of their cash and short-term investments to their current liabilities. This ratio displays the ability to pay current liabilities with their cash and short-term investments to Chipotle's current liabilities. Working Capital has increased over the past three years giving them more longterm financing available to fund the firm's operating cycle after they have funded their long-term strategic investment in fixed assets. Another strong number for this company is their Debt-to-Equity Ratio. Industry average sits at .74 with Chipotle not getting any higher than a .36 in the past three years. This number indicates how much a company owes of total Debt for one dollar of stockholder's equity. The lower the number, the stronger the balance sheet for Chipotle. Source: http://csimarket.com/stocks/CMG-Financial-Strength-Comparisons.html Income Statement in millions Income Statement Chipotle For the Years Ending [Dec 31, 2013, Dec 31, 2012 and Dec 31, 2011] Revenue Sales revenue Total Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit 2013 2012 2011 3,214.6 2,731.2 2,269.5 3,214.6 2,731.2 2,269.5 2,012.4 1,704.3 1,429.1 1,202.2 1,026.9 840.4 263.6 96.1 303.0 230.3 84.1 251.6 189.8 74.9 219.3 662.7 539.5 566.0 460.9 484.0 356.4 1.8 1.8 (0.9) - 1.8 541.3 1.8 462.7 (0.9) 355.5 Expenses Selling General & Admin Expenses, Total Depreciation & Amortization, Total Other Operating Expenses Total Expenses Operating Income Interest expense Interest And Investment Income NET INTEREST EXPENSE EBT, EXCLUDING UNUSUAL ITEMS Gain *Loss) On Sale of Assets EBT, INCLUDING UNUSUAL ITEMS Income Tax Expense Earnings From Continuing Operations NET INCOME TO COMMON INCLUDING EXTRA ITEMS NET INCOME TO COMMON EXCLUDING EXTRA ITEMS (6.8) (5.0) 457.7 349.7 207.0 327.4 179.7 278.0 134.8 214.9 327.4 327.4 278.0 278.0 214.9 214.9 {4 2 } Net Income (5.8) 534.5 [4 2 ] 327.4 278.0 [4 2 ] 214.9 Income Statement Continued Chipotle's financials overall are growing. Revenue is increasing due to approximately 518 additional stores being opened in the past three years, which means additional expenses as well as increased tax expense. Their average restaurant sales were $2.169 million as of December 31, 2013, increasing from $2.113 million as of December 31, 2012. Last year Sales increased at a rate of 17% but Expenses increased by the same amount of 17% meaning a break even occurred, no profit. The year before Sales increased by approximately 20% with expenses only increasing 17%. There are no significant changes in Gross Profit, Operating Profit, or Income Tax Expense and they do not pay dividends. Retained earnings are steady with an average increase of 40.6% over the past three years. Source: http://csimarket.com/stocks/CMG-Financial-StrengthComparisons.html Managerial Balance Sheet 2011: Investment Capital = 456.2 - 90.2 + 752.0 = 1118.00 Capital Employed = 381.1 + 1044.2 = 1425.3 WCR = 44.9 - 135.1 = -90.2 Net Fixed Assets = 752.0 2012: Investment Capital = 472.9 - 90.3 + 866.7 = 1249.3 Capital Employed = 422.7 + 1245.9 = 1668.6 WCR = 73.8 - 164.1 = -90.3 Net Fixed Assets = 866.7 2013: Investment Capital: 578.2 - 79.6 + 963.2 = 1461.8 Capital Employed: 471.0 + 1538.3 = 2009.3 WCR: 88.1 - 167.7 = -79.6 Net Fixed Assets: 963.2 Managerial Balance Sheet Chipotle’s Managerial Balance Sheet for 2011-2013 December 31, 2011 Invested Capital Cash Working capital requirement (WCR) Net fixed assets December 31, 2012 December 31, 2013 401.2 -79.6 963.2 322.6 -90.3 866.7 323.2 -90.2 752.0 Total invested capital 1461.8 1249.3 1118.0 Capital employed Short-term debt Long-term financing Long-term debt Owners’ equity 381.1 1044.2 0.1 1044.2 422.7 1245.9 -1245.9 471.0 1538.3 -1538.3 Total capital employed 1425.3 1668.6 2009.3 How has the Working Capital Requirement changed? Can you see the trend? Even as the cash flow increases, the amount of money required to run the business also increases, which means Chipotle isn't really managing to pull ahead with their current systems. Liquidity Importance Assessing liquid assets are valuable for determining a firm’s overall cash value. This monetary assessment can be used for preventative measures during times of low cash on hand, and for the development of future endeavors. It is essential that a firm covers the WCR for the benefit of its shareholders and attractiveness in investment. Hawawini, G., & Viallet, C. (2011). Finance for executives: managing for value creation. (4th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning. Liquidity: Net Investments in the Operating Cycle and Financing (figures in millions) 2011 2012 2013 Working Capital Requirement (WCR) 79.6 90.3 90.2 The Financing of the Operating Cycle Net Long-term Financing = Long term financing + Owner Equity - Net Fixed Assets [.1 + 1044.2 - 963.2] [0 + 1245.9 - 866.7] [0 + 1538.3 - 752.0] 81.1 379.2 786.3 Net Short-term Financing = Short term debt - Cash [381.1 - 401.2] [422.7 - 322.6] [471.0 - 323.2] -20.1 100.1 147.8 Net Long-term Financing / WCR (in percentage) [81.1 / 79.6] [379.2 / 90.3] [786.3 / 90.2] 101.9% 419.9% 871.7% Net Short-term Financing / WCR (in percentage) [-20.1 / 79.6] [100.1 / 90.3] [147.8 / 90.2] -25.2% 110.9% 163.9% Liquidity: Ratio Conclusions In 2011, The Liquidity of Chipotle could only cover 76.7% of the Working Capital Requirement. The company’s Net long-term financing options were at 101.9%, but Net short-term financing options were in negative numbers, at -25.2% However, the company has seen dramatic growth in liquidity in 2012 and 2013, as the distance has grown substantially between net short-term and long-term financing. From 2012 to 2013, long-term financing increased by $292.4M, and net fixed assets decreased, causing the WCR to decrease by .10M As of 2013, Chipotle’s Net Long-term financing can cover nearly nine times the WCR, with Net-Short term financing covering 163.9%. This possibly suggests a positive position in regard to liquidity, with the long-term financing almost entirely made up of owner equity. A buyer may like to see more consistent trending for a safer investment. Liquidity Continued 2011 2012 WCR as Percentage of Sales 2013 WCR / Sales (in percentage) [79.6 / 2269.5] 3.5% Industry Standard = 11% [90.3 / 2731.2] 3.3% [90.2 / 3214.6] 2.8% Industry Standard = 11% Industry Standard = 11% *Industry Standard based on 2008 projections from Haw aw ini, G., & Viallet, C. (2011). Finance for executives:managing for value creation. (4th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning. Cost of Good Sold / Inventories (Turnover Rate) [1429.1 / 8.9] [1704.3 / 11.1] [2012.4 / 13.0] 160.6 times 153.5 times 154.8 times Accounts Receivable / Average Daily Sales *365 days in a year [8.4 / (2269.5 / 365)] [16.8 / (2731.2 / 365)] [24 / (3214.6 / 365)] 1.3 days 2.2 days 2.7 days Accounts Payable / Average Daily Purchases *365 days in a year [46.4 / (1429.1 + 1.8/365)]* [58.7 / (1704.3 + 2.2 / 365)] [59.0 / (2012.4 + 1.9 / 365)] 11.8 days 12.5 days 10.7 days * The 1.8 figure comes from the 2011 inventory minus the 2010 inventory (8.9 - 7.1). Liquidity Continued WCR as a Percentage of Sales Based on the figures shown, Chipotle is investing much less in its operating cycles than the industry standard, and the WCR is continually taking less of the percentage of sales. This is indicative of efficient use of working capital. Efficiency in the Management of Inventories Chipotle has a high inventory turnover rate, which is a necessity due to the nature of their business. Chipotle specializes in serving organic, naturally sustainable foods, so a high turn over rate would be required in order to keep a fresh product. Source: https://www.chipotle.com/en-us/fwi/fwi.aspx Liquidity Continued Efficiency in the Management of Accounts Receivable By taking the figure for Accounts Receivable and dividing it by the Average Daily Sales, we can figure out the efficiency of Accounts receivable. Chipotle happens to be efficient as their product is relatively inexpensive, but their rate has dropped in efficiency over the past three years. This could be attributed to the increase in number of locations and the prevalent use of credit cards. Efficiency in the Management of Accounts Payable Chipotle has seen increased efficiency in the amount of time it takes to pay their bills from 2012 – 2013. It is suggested that the average collection period should not exceed 15 days. Source: http://johanhburger.com/financial-analysis/ Managerial Influence on Working Capital Requirement (WCR) Inventory turnover=Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)/ending inventories 2011= $1,429.1 / 8.9 = 160.57 2012= $ 1,704.3 / 11.1 = 153.54 2013= $ 2,012.4 / 13.0 = 154.80 The higher the inventory turnover, the lower the firm’s investment in inventories and the higher the efficiency with which the firm manages its inventories. Managerial Influence on Working Capital Requirement (WCR) Cont’d Average collection period = Ending Accounts receivable / Average daily sales. 2011 = 8.4 / 6.22 = 1.35 2012 = 16.8 / 7.48 = 2.25 2013 = 24.0 / 8.81 = 2.72 Average Avg. Daily sales = (2,269.5 / 365) = 6.22 Avg. Daily sales = (2,731.2 / 365) = 7.48 Avg. Daily sales = (3,214.6 / 365) = 8.81 collection period is the number of days’ worth of sales that have not yet been collected at the date of the balance sheet. Managerial Influence on Working Capital Requirement (WCR) Cont’d Average payment period = Ending accounts payable / average daily purchases 2011 = 46.4 / 3.92 = 11.84 Avg. Daily purchases = (1,429.1 / 365) 2012 = 58.7 / 4.67 = 12.57 Avg. Daily purchases = (1,704.3 / 365) 2013 = 59 / 5.51 = 10.71 Avg. Daily purchases = (2,012.4 / 365) The average payment period is the number of days’ worth of purchases that have not yet been paid at the date of the balance sheet. Cash Flow Statements: Net Operating Cash Flow Operations Net Earnings Depreciation and Ammortization Deferred Taxes Other Funds Change in Working Capital Requirement (WCR) Net Operating Cash Flow 2013 2012 2011 327.4 96.1 2.1 32.6 70.6 278.0 84.1 -18.1 -2.3 78.2 215.0 74.9 11.3 11.8 98.1 528.7 420.0 411.1 Chipotle shows that it can create a large amount of Operating Cash Flow and it is currently trending upward. This is an indicator that the store operations are capable of generating income. In 2012, Chipotle incurred cost in regard to deferred taxes. This is likely to allow for the depreciation of value in newly acquired assets, such as the purchase of land or buildings. Sources: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cmg/financials/cash-flow http://www.business.uconn.edu/users/smf/accounting%20for%20deferred%20taxes.doc Cash Flow Statements: Investment Activities Investing Activities Capital Expenditures Fixed Assets Other Assets Purchase/Proceeds of Investments Purchase of Investments Proceeds from investment securities Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities 2013 2012 2011 -199.9 0.0 -197.0 0.0 -151.2 0.0 -387.6 159.3 -213.4 55.0 -183.8 124.8 -428.3 -355.4 -210.2 Chipotle is incurring increased expenses in Investing Activities because they are expanding their operations. This is also reflected by the overall increases in Operating Cash Flow, due to more restaurants being opened, and Liquidity. By increasing the amount of investments and following the market trend, this could be an opportunity for the consumer to invest at a lower price and wait for Chipotle’s cost of expansion rate to plateau. Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cmg/financials/cash-flow Cash Flow Statements: Financing Activities Financing Activities Cash Dividends Paid Common/Differed Change in Stock Repurchase of Common Stock Sale of Common Stock Issuance/Reduction of Debt Long-Term Debt Other Funds Uses Sources Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities Exchange Rate Effect Net Cash and Cash Equivalents End of Year Cash and Cash Equivalencies 2013 2012 2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 -138.9 0.3 -217.1 0.5 -63.5 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 38.2 -0.1 73.2 0.0 38.7 0.0 -100.5 -143.5 -24.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 -78.7 -0.2 176.4 0.5 -157.62 353.0 Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cmg/financials/cash-flow Cash Flow Statements Continued Financing Activities Chipotle has not paid out any dividends from 2011-2013, indicating that it would not be wise to invest if one was looking for a quick return. Chipotle has continued a trend of repurchasing stock, likely because the company feels as though the stock is undervalued. This could be an indicator of an anticipated rise in stock value. End of Year Cash and Cash Equivalencies With the purchase of new investments and repurchase of common stock, the End of the Year Cash and Cash Equivalencies are not large numbers. The Operating Cost of Capital is currently struggling to keep up with expenses. Chipotle may have to consider slowing down their rate of expansion and pay dividends in order to keep investors interested. Dann, L. Y. (1980). Common stock repurchases: An analysis of returns to bondholders and stockholders. Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 113-138. Retrieved from http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/f423/jfe81_ld.pdf Cash Flow Statements: Free Cash Flow 2011 2012 Free Cash Flow (in millions) 2013 260.0 222.9 328.9 The Free Cash Flow (FCF) does not take into account the financing activities of a firm when measuring a firm’s cash flow. This is for the purpose of placing value solely on the operating and investing practices of the organization. Chipotle declined in Free Cash Flow in 2012, mainly because of the increase in investments and drastic decrease from the proceeds of investment securities. Sources: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cmg/financials/cash-flow Hawawini, G., & Viallet, C. (2011). Finance for executives: managing for value creation. (4th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning. Profitability, Risk and Growth Return on equity = Earnings after tax (EAT) / Owners Equity (OE) 2011 = 214.9 / 1044.2 = 20.58% 2012 = 278 / 1245.9 = 22.31% 327.5 / 1538.3 = 21.29% Profitability, Risk and Growth Cont’d Invested capital = cash + WCR + net fixed assets 2011 = 456 + -96 + 752 = 1112 2012 = 472.9 + -99 + 866.7 = 1240.6 2013 = 578.2 + -92.8 + 963.2 = 1448.6 Profitability, Risk and Growth Cont’d Return on invested capital before tax (ROICbt) = EBIT / invested capital 2011 = 356.4 / 1112 = 32.1 % 2012 = 460.9 / 1240.6 = 37.2 % 2013 = 539.5 / 1448.6 = 37.2 % Other Measures of Profitability Share price as of March 31, 2014=495.50 Earnings per share, using the March data above equals10.53 Chipotle’s debt to equity ratio=30% SSGR=0.21 million for 2013 Present Value Given current stock pricing (495.50) and expected dividends an investment of $500,000 in this company with a 3% cost of capital and sale of stock at the end of 5 years would be recommended. Reason investment would be recommended: In 2010=90.18 dollars per share In 2014=495.50 dollars per share Financial Cost Ratio Financial cost ratio = Earnings before tax (EBT) / EBIT 2011 = 355.5 / 356.4 = .997 ~1 2012 = 462.7 / 460.9 = 1.004 ~ 1 2013 = 541.3 / 539.5 = 1.003 ~ 1 EBIT/interest Times – interest – earned ratio = EBIT / interest expense 2011 = 356.4 / -.9 = -396 2012 = 460.9 / 1.8 = 256.05 2013 = 539.5 / 1.8 = 299.72 Financial Structure Ratio Financial structure ratio = invested capital / owners equity 2011 = 1112 / 1044 = 1.07 2012 = 1240.6 / 1245.9 = .9957 2013 = 1448.6 / 1538.3 = .9416 Financial Leverage Multiplier Financial leverage multiplier = financial cost ratio x financial structure ratio 2011 = .997 x 1.07 = 1.07 2012 = 1.004 x .9957 = .99 2013 = 1.003 x .9416 = .94 ROE How does your firm’s ROE compare to industry average? 2011 = 20.58% 2012 = 22.31 % 2013 = 21.29 % Industry average ~ 12% and McDonald’s ROE for 2013 = 31.5% Using expected dividends and current market price of common stock to calculate payback, is this a good investment? Chipotle does not pay dividends, N/A. Calculate the internal rate of return for this investment of $500,000. With the same 5 year investment with a 3% cost of capital, what is the profitability index for the $500,000 proposed project? Firm considering raising $15,000,000 for a project Is this viable? -Would take on large debt, does not generate large amount of revenue and net income (would take 5+ years to pay back for this investment). What would the project be for? What is the risk involved? These questions need to be asked. 1,000 par-value bonds, 10 year maturity, and a coupon of $80 per yr. what would the market value of securities be? -Market value =469.90 If the firm could borrow at 3% above current govt. bond rates, what would be the cost of debt? -Cost of debt= 8%+3%=11% Continued At a marginal tax rate of 40%, what is after-tax cost of debt? (=cost of debt x(1-tax rate)) -11% x (1-.40)= 6.6% If the cost of debt is 3% and the cost of equity is 8%; the $15,000,000 project is funded with $10M in equity and $5M in long-term debt, what is the WACC? -3% x (1-.11) x 33%) + (8% x 67%) = 6.3% rounded up Capital Structure Using the principles outlined in Chapter 11, does the firm you are analyzing have a suitable capital structure? - The financial leverage multiplier is low, so that means Chipotle is a pretty strong company and does not need to rely so much on creditors to finance. Chipotle also has many tangible assets which means if need be, creditors are more likely to extend credit to the company if financial distress were to occur. Chipotle is a stable and growing company. A lot of judgment is needed when analyzing capital structure because there is not one specific formula/ratio that tells everything. The goal is to maximize value and share price. Continued If you were the CFO of the firm you are analyzing, would you recommend changes to the capital structure? -The company does not have much debt in its current structure. If the company can take on more debt in the future, it could possibly grow faster and provide more money for shareholders. That could be something to look into as the company continues to strengthen. In Conclusion… In conclusion, with the trending financial increase in the company as seen on the balance and managerial balance sheets, cash flow statements and throughout the formulas that have been displayed, we find that Chipotle is a successful company that would be a good investment.