Positive Future

From Fantasy to Action

Gabriele Oettingen

New York University/University of

Hamburg

Positive Thinking is Positive:

Self-Help Literature

Norman Vincent Peale

The Power of Positive Thinking (1985-1994)

Napoleon Hill

Success of Positive Thinking (2005)

Mathias Matuschka

The Happy-End Universe (2004)

Annemarie Trixner (2003)

Be Happy, You will Succeed!

O

Overview

Expectation versus Fantasy

Mental Contrasting of Fantasy and

Reality

Intervention and Individual

Differences

Positive Thinking:

Expectations versus Fantasies

Expectations versus Fantasies

Expectations: Probability judgments

Fantasies: Free thoughts

Everyone knows the difference between imagining a thing and believing in its existence, between supposing a proposition and acquiescing in its truth.

James, 1890, p. 283

Positive Expectations

… reflect past success

… signal that acting is worthwhile and necessary

… predict more motivation

Positive Fantasies

… independent of past success

… fail to signal that action is worthwhile and necessary

… predict less motivation

Entering Professional Life

How probable do you think it is that you’ll find an adequate position in your field?

not at all probable very probable

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Work in a biochemical laboratory

After my graduation a member of the research group is leaving, the vacant position gets advertised, and I succeed to take over the position due to my achievements in the past and my ability to fit in.

Entering Professional Life as Predicted by

Expectation and Fantasy

.10

.0

-.10

-.20

-.30

-.40

-.50

.50

.40

.30

.20

.41

Number of

Job Offers

p < .001

p < .01

Expectation

Fantasy

-.39

.33

Amount of

Salary

p < . 05

Number of

Applications

-.04

-.29

-.40

p < .05

p < .01

Oettingen & Mayer (2002, Study 1). Journal of

Personality and Social Psychology, 83, 1198-1212.

Recovery from Hip

Replacement Surgery

How likely do you think it is, that 2 weeks after surgery you will be able to go for a brief walk using an assistive cane?

not at all likely

1 2 3 4 very likely

5

How likely do you think it is, that 2 weeks after surgery you will be walking on stairs up and down with the help of an assistive cane?

not at all likely


5

At the end of your hospital stay you want to buy a newspaper in the hospital shop ...

I am walking on the stair-ways downwards without help, and I walk easily and quickly to the newspaper stand.

How positive were these thoughts or images?

not at all positive

1 2 3 4 very positive

5

How negative were these thoughts or images?

not at all negative

1 2 3 4 very negative

5

At the end of your hospital stay you want

Negative Fantasy (Recovery ) to buy a newspaper in the hospital shop ...

I am trying to walk to the door first, using my cane. But how shall I open the door? Uh, and then walking until the elevator? How would I ever do it?

How positive were this thoughts or images?

not at all positive

1 2 3 4 very positive

5

How negative were this thoughts or images?

not at all negative very negative

1 2 3 4 5

Recovery from Hip Replacement Surgery as

Predicted by Expectation and Fantasy

.50

.40

.0

-.10

-.20

.30

.20

.10

-.30

-.40

-.50

.27

Hip Joint

Motion

p < .05

p < .001

-.43

.37

Walking on

Stairs

p < . 01

p < .01

-.36

.30

General

Recovery

p < .05

p < .05

-.31

Expectation

Fantasy

Oettingen & Mayer (2002, Study 4). Journal of

Personality and Social Psychology, 83, 1198-1212.

Academic/ vocational:

Health:

Supportive Evidence

Interpersonal relations:

Academic achievement

Professional achievement

Obesity

Chronic disease: Asthma,

Colitis, Cancer

Hip replacement surgery

Finding a romantic partner

Findings are Replicated Across

Different

Age groups

Domains

Cultures

Measures of Fantasy

Measures of Motivation & Success

Turning Fantasies into Goals:

Mentally Contrasting Fantasies with Reality

Mental Contrasting

Positive

Future

Mental

Contrasting

Negative

Reality

Expectations are Activated

Strong

Goal Setting

No

Goal Setting

Oettingen (2000). Social Cognition, 18, 101-129.

Indulging

Positive

Future

Indulging

Expectations are not

Activated

Moderate

Goal

Setting


Dwelling

Negative

Reality

Dwelling

Expectations are not

Activated

Moderate

Goal

Setting


Typical Experiment

Independent Variables

•

Measure: Expectations

•

Manipulate: Goal-setting strategies

Dependent Variables

•

Goal commitment and achievement

Exemplary Experiment:

Interpersonal Concern

Interpersonal Concern improve relationship to partner get to know better someone I like get along with my mother

How likely do you think it is that the named problem will have a happy ending?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Aspects of Positive Future not being lonely anymore feelings of being loved feelings of being needed

Aspects of Negative Reality feelings of insecurity feelings of unattractiveness being too emotional

Inducing the Three

Self-Regulation Strategies of Goal-Setting


Write down on the line below the second positive aspect that you associated with your interpersonal concern having a happy ending.

feelings of being loved

Now really think about this aspect. Imagine the relevant events and experiences as vividly as possible! Let your mind go! Do not hesitate to give your fantasies free reign.

Positive Future




Write down on the line below the second negative aspect of reality that stands in the way of your interpersonal concern having a happy ending .

feelings of unattractiveness


Positive Future



Negative Reality




Write down on the line below the first positive aspect that you associated with your interpersonal concern having a happy ending.

not being lonely anymore


Positive Future






Positive Future




Write down on the line below the first negative aspect of reality that stands in the way of your interpersonal concern having a happy ending .

feelings of insecurity


Positive Future






Positive Future






Indulging

Write down on the line below the fourth positive aspect that you associated with your interpersonal concern having a happy ending.

being well-balanced


Positive Future



Indulging

Write down on the line below the third positive aspect that you associated with your interpersonal concern having a happy ending.

feelings of being needed


Positive Future



Positive Future



Indulging




Positive Future



Positive Future



Positive Future



Indulging




Positive Future



Positive Future



Positive Future



Positive Future



Dwelling

Write down on the line below the fourth negative aspect of reality that stands in the way of your interpersonal concern having a happy ending .

being too funky





Dwelling

Write down on the line below the third negative aspect of reality that stands in the way of your interpersonal concern having a happy ending .

being too emotional








Dwelling













Dwelling
















Reverse Contrasting














Positive Future










Positive Future













Positive Future






Positive Future



7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation


Feeling Energized

High

Expectation

Mental contrasting

Indulging in positive future

Dwelling on negative reality

Control group

Oettingen, Pak & Schnetter (2001,

Study 3). Journal of Personality and

Social Psychology, 80, 736-753.

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Low

Expectation


Immediacy of Action

High

Expectation




Control group

Oettingen, Pak & Schnetter (2001,



Exemplary Experiment:

Improving in Mathematics

How likely do you think it is that you will improve in mathematics?

very unlikely


5

Aspects of Positive Future passing final exams feelings of pride being qualified for the job

Aspects of Negative Reality being lazy being absent-minded distraction by other students

Mathematics


5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation




Oettingen, Pak, & Schnetter (2001,



Mathematics

Effort

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation




High

Expectation




1

2

3

4

5

6

Low

Expectation

Mathematics

Achievement (Course Grades)

High

Expectation







Academic/ vocational:

Health:

Interpersonal relations:

Supportive Evidence

Vocational training

Combining work and family life

Studying abroad

Learning a foreign language

Impression formation

Mathematics

Professional relations

Cigarette reduction

Problem solving

Social responsibility

Help seeking

Findings are Replicated Across

Cultures

Time Spans

Settings

Paradigms

Measures of Goal Commitment

Dealing with Negative Feedback:

Recall of Information on Relevant Shortcomings

Please look at this picture for a minute.

Then answer – without much thought – the following question.

1. Please estimate the characteristics of this woman by circling the appropriate number. warm fragile passive impatient dependent jealous cold strong active patient independent faithful

Please look at this picture for a minute.

Then answer – without much thought – the following question.

4. What will this person do in the next five minutes? Please jot down what came to your mind when you were looking at the picture.

N e g

Negative Feedback in challenging situations you are tense.

when interacting with other people you are reserved.

in stressful situations you react impulsively.

Cued-recall

1. in interpersonal interactions you are …

2.

towards others you behave ...

3.

in challenging situations you are ... tense

4.

when interacting with other people you are ... reserved

5.

in stressful situations you react … impulsively

6.

others think you are a … person.

Recall of Negative Feedback

3 -

2 -

1 -

0 -

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation




Pak & Oettingen (2007).


Sustaining a Sense of Competence

Regarding your

Social Competence your test result was

18 points

(0 = lowest to 60 = highest)

Your test result as compared to the female population (age from 20 to 35 years) is at a very low level. Persons with comparable results usually have conflictual and disharmonious interpersonal relationships .

Your result comprises points achieved on the items below, measuring your social competence .

persuasive power communication cooperation openness self confidence problem solving

Your result:

0: very bad

10: very good

3

2

3

4

3

3

How would you estimate your social competence?

very low very high

How would you estimate your interpersonal intelligence?

Please list a number from 0 to 100

1 -

Subjective Competence

Change After Negative Feedback

0 -




-1 -

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation



Optimistic Attributions

Optimistic Attributions after Negative Feedback

What is the major cause of your performance in the test?

the unusual context

Please rate the cause along the following dimensions.

The cause is … something about me 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 permanent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 something about other people or events transient something about many or all situations

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 something about this particular situation

Dickhäuser & Stiensmeier-Pelster, 2000, adjusted from Peterson et al., 1982

Optimistic Attributions after Negative Feedback

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation




Procedural Transfer:

Performance on RAVEN Test

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

Procedural Transfer

Number of Solved Raven Items

High

Expectation




Coping with Chronic Stress:

Improving Communication with Patients’ Relatives

How confident are you, that you can improve your relationship with patients’ relatives?

not at all confident very confident

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Aspects of Positive Future contentment affection evenness of temper

Aspects of Impeding Reality lack of time too many patients impatience

Coping with Chronic Stress

Effort to Improve Communication

3

2

5

4

7

6

1

0

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation




Oettingen, Mayer, Schmidt,

& Brinkmann (2007, Study 2).

Coping with Chronic Stress

Remedial Action to Improve Communication

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation






Coping with Acute Stress:

Giving a Talk in Front of an

Evaluative Audience

a g v i i n l a

T

G m o n e

P f o l

How well would you like to do in your talk?

sufficient excellent

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

p x

E n o

G g a l a

T v i i n

How confident is it that you achieve your desired level of performance as indicated in question # 1?

very unlikely very likely

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

v i i n a g

T l a k

G

Aspects of Positive Future good for my self esteem overcoming my shyness good exercise

v i i n a g

T l a k

G

Aspects of Impeding Reality not being prepared to be dressed unsuitable that stupid camera

G

Coping with an Acute Stressor

Performance

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation



Oettingen, Mayer, Sevincer, Pak, &

Hagenah (2007, Study 1).

l a

T a v i i n g

G


Self-Evaluation

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation





G



7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation





Mediating Processes of Mental

Contrasting: Feeling Energized

Energization as a Mediator:

Performance

Feeling Energized

.50

*** .34

*

Sobel-Test: z = 2.05

*

.24

Expectation .42

** Performance

* p < .05, ** p < .01 , *** p < .01



Energization as a Mediator: Self-

Evaluation

Feeling Energized

.50

*** .38

***

.50

***

Expectation .69

*** Self-

Evaluation

Sobel-Test: z = 2.84

**

* p < .05, ** p < .01 , *** p < .01


Hagenah (2007, Studie 1).


Contrasting :

Systolic Blood Pressure Change

Time Table (Mental Contrasting)

Start of the Experiment

Measure of

SBP

1. Aspect 2. Aspect 3. Aspect 4. Aspect

Positive

Future



Negative

Reality



Positive

Future



Negative

Reality



Measure of

SBP

Time Table (Indulging)

Start of the Experiment

1. Aspect 2. Aspect 3. Aspect 4. Aspect

Positive

Future



Positive

Future



Positive

Future



Positive

Future



S

4

-2

2

0

-4

-6

-8

Low

Expectation

BSP Change (in mmHG)

High

Expectation





7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

BSP Change as a Mediator:

Goal Commitment

High

Expectation



Mediation by BSP Change:

Sobel-Test: z = 1.76 (p < .10)




Contrasting : If-Then Plans

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Low

Expectation

Number of If-Then Plans

High

Expectation



Control group



6

5

4

3

2

7

Number of If-Then Plans as a Mediator:

Goal Commitment




Control group

Mediation by If-Then Plans:

Sobel-Test: z = 1.73 (p < .10)

1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation



Mental Contrasting of Negative

Future with Positive Reality and Prevention Goals:

Smoking Cessation

How likely do you think it is that you will reduce your cigarette consumption or that you will stop smoking?

not at all likely very likely

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Aspects of Negative Future cancer bad model for children lifelong addiction

Aspects of Positive Reality healthy lungs pretty skin physical endurance

Mental Contrasting of

Negative Fantasy

Negative Future



Positive Reality



Negative Future






Indulging in Negative Fantasy

Negative Future



Negative Future



Negative Future



Negative Future



Dwelling on Positive Reality













Smoking Cessation

Immediacy of Action

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation


Indulging in negative future

Dwelling on positive reality

Oettingen, Mayer & Thorpe (2007).

Translational Research

Interventions

Development

Mental States

Interventions:

Success in Everyday Life

3

2

1

4

5

Interventions:

Mental Contrasting as Meta-Cognitive Strategy

7

6

Time

Management

Ease of

Deciding

Project

Completion

Project

Relinquishment

Indulging in positive fantasies




Interventions:

Enhancing Health Behaviors

Lifestyle Intervention by Self-Regulation of Action (LISA)

Intervention group: Information + MCII

(Mental contrasting/Implementation Intentions)

Control group: Information

Time Table

Intervention

Control group: Information

MCII-group: Information + MCII

Diary



1



2



3

1 week 1 month



4

2 months



5

4 months

Time after the intervention

My sport concern: exercycling in the evening

The very best : feeling balanced

Hindrance : tiredness, bad mood

Key: Overcome/Prevent/Seize Oportunity

If I come home at 7 pm situation (when and where) exercycle

, then I take my i-pod and behavior

My nutrition concern: eat today 2 portions of fruits and 3 portions of vegetables

The very best : well-being

Hindrance : no fruits and vegetable at home

Key: Overcome/Prevent/Seize Opportunity

If I leave for the office at 8 am , then I pick up fruits and situation (when and where) behavior vegetables on the way

Diary (LISA)

Ihr erster Tag zeit

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24-6 sweets low high alcohol smoking fat

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

6-12 am

__ __

Anzahl of smoked cigarettes

__ __

Anzahl of smoked cigarettes

6-12 pm

__ __

Anzahl gerauchte

Zigaretten

120

Enhancing Health Behavior

Exercise

Intervention

105

90

75

60

45

30

Intervention group

Control group

15

0

1 week 1 month

F(1,214) = 9.65, p



.01

2 months 4 months

Stadler, Oettingen, & Gollwitzer (2005).

1.0

Enhancing Health Behavior

Healthy Nutrition

Intervention

0.5

0

-0.5

Intervention group

Control group

-1.0

1 week 1 month 2 months

F(1,224) = 5.13, p



.05

4 months

Stadler, Oettingen, & Gollwitzer (2005).

Mental Contrasting as

Intervention:

Improving Self-Discipline and Self-Esteem

I

Time Table

Intervention

Control group: Description of a picture

MCII group : MCII (mentally and in writing)

       day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4 day 5 day 6 day 7 1 week later

MCII-Intervention

A todays pressing concern : clearing up my desk

The very best : relief

Hindrance : I‘m not in mood for it

If

I‘m not in mood for clearing my desk this evening , then I immediately

Situation Handlung start sorting my documents.

Self-Dicipline time management

(“I kept my appointments easily”) project completion

(“How many projects did you complete?”) feeling on top of things

(“How often did you feel in control?”) never very often

Self-Esteem

“I have high self-esteem”

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 not very true of me very true of me

Robins, Hendin, & Trzesniewski (2001).

I

43

41

39

37

35

Improving Self-Discipline

MCII group

Control group

M = 42.0

M = 36.4

M = 38.2

M = 37.2

Baseline After one week

Oettingen, Barry, Guttenberg,

& Gollwitzer (2007).

I

5

Improving Self-Esteem

M = 4.75

M = 4.45

MCII group

Control group

4.5

M = 4.25

M = 4.5

4

Baseline After one week

Oettingen, Barry, Guttenberg,

& Gollwitzer (2007).


Intervention:

Preparation for an Exam

P

Time Table

Intervention

Control group: Writing an essay

MCII group : MCII (mentally and in writing)

Distribution of the workbooks



Collection of the workbooks



May July October

225

200

175

150

125

Preparation for an Exam

Number of Test Questions Completed

MCII group Control group

Duckworth, Grant, Loew,

Oettingen, & Gollwitzer (2007).


Intervention:

Chronic Back Pain Patients

Physical Capacity of


50

45

40

35

30

25

20

0

Intervention

3 weeks later

3 months later

MCII group

Control group

Schramm, Oettingen,

Dahme & Klinger (2007).

140

130

120

110

100

Physical Capacity of


150

Intervention

MCII group

Control group

3 weeks later

3 months later Schramm, Oettingen,

Dahme & Klinger (2007).

Strengths of the MCII Intervention

Meta-cognitive strategies

Cost effective in teaching + application

Across domains

Across samples

Development

Measuring Spontaneous Use of


Please write down one of your named aspects. Think about this aspect and depict the respective events or experiences in your thoughts as intensively as possible.

Choose the aspect that first comes into your mind.

Frequency of the Spontaneous Use of


Mental Contrasting ( N = 55) was chosen more frequently than

Indulging ( N = 34),

Reverse Contrasting ( N = 30),

Dwelling ( N = 21),

χ²( 3 , N = 140 ) = 17.77

, p < .001

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

Spontaneous use of Mental Contrasting and

Goal Commitment ( Anticipated Dissappointment)

0.7


Reverse contrasting



0.1

Low

Expectation

High

Expectation

Oettingen & Mayer (2007, Study 1).

Contextual Influences

You Take A Tour

Through a Coal Mine...

…suddenly a deafening sound erupts around you… You find yourself standing in total darkness, enveloped in dust. …You realize you are trapped…

Two Conditions ( Contextual

Influences)

Priming: Ideal Course

Priming: Obstacle

Priming: Ideal Course

Your flashlight starts to flicker. You screw the cap on tighter and the flashlight stays lit .

Priming: Obstacle

Your flashlight starts to flicker. You screw the cap on tighter, but the flashlight goes out .

C

40

Contextual Influences of Mental

Contrasting



30

N = 26

N = 25

N = 18

20

N = 16

10

0

Priming: Obstacle Priming: Ideal Course

χ²(

1 , N = 85 ) = 3.74

, p < .09


Socialization:

School Children

Design

Children

Spontaneous mental contrasting

Self-assessment

Mothers

Assessment of the child

Children

A major goal I have in my courses is to perform really well.

In school I am focused on demonstrating my intellectual ability.

Mothers

A major goal my son/daughter has in his or her courses is to perform really well.

In school my son/daughter is focused on demonstrating his or her intellectual ability.

Grant & Dweck (2003).

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Socialization Influences:

Match in Goal Orientation

School Children:


No Mental Contrasting

2 3 4 5 6 orientation


Socialization Influences:

Match in Grades

6

5

4

3

2

1

1 2 3 4 5 6

School children‘s estimation of their own last year`s grades

School children:


No Mental Contrasting


Socialization and Mental

Contrasting: Students

S

Socialization Influences of

Mental Contrasting: Students

Mental Contrasting

Responsive

Parenting

* p < .05, ** p < .01

.35

* .32

*

.39

*

.45

** Achievement (GPA)

Grant, Oettingen, & Gollwitzer

(2005, Study 3).

Mental States and Mental

Contrasting: Alcohol

25

20

15

10

5

0

Alcohol and Mental Contrasting

Alcohol

Placebo

t (58) = 2.48, p < .05

Sevincer & Oettingen (2005).

Conclusion

Positive fantasies


Interventions

One needs serenity to accept the things one cannot change, courage to change the things one can change, and wisdom to know the difference.

Thank you to:

Christina Bardong

Heather Barry

Babette Brinkmann

Angela Duckworth

Heidi Grant

Katie Guttenberg

Meike Hagenah

Hanna Janetzke

Aylin Lenbet

Solvig Lorenz

Annette Losert

Doris Mayer

Hyeon-ju Pak

Karoline Schnetter

Christiane Schreiber

Timur Sevincer

Gertraud Stadler

The research was supported by:

Karl Heinz Ditze-

Stiftung

From Fantasy to Action

Gabriele Oettingen

New York University/University of

Hamburg

Positive Future

From Fantasy to Action

Positive Thinking:

Expectations versus Fantasies

Entering Professional Life

Turning Fantasies into Goals:

Mentally Contrasting Fantasies with Reality

Mental Contrasting

Indulging

Dwelling

Typical Experiment

Exemplary Experiment:

Interpersonal Concern

How likely do you think it is that you will improve in mathematics?

Time Table (Mental Contrasting)

Time Table (Indulging)

Translational Research

Interventions:

Success in Everyday Life

Interventions:

Enhancing Health Behaviors

Time Table

Mental Contrasting as

Intervention:

Improving Self-Discipline and Self-Esteem

Time Table

MCII-Intervention

Time Table

Mental Contrasting as

Intervention:

Chronic Back Pain Patients

Development

Measuring Spontaneous Use of

Mental Contrasting

Contextual Influences

Socialization:

School Children

Design

Socialization and Mental

Contrasting: Students

Mental States and Mental

Contrasting: Alcohol

Conclusion

From Fantasy to Action

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