Evaluating Theories of Crime
What is a “Theory?”
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A statement of set of statements about
the relationships between 2 or more
events
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In criminology?
A theory predicts what will happen, not
how the world should be
Types of Crime Theories
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From Edwin Sutherland
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Theories of “making and enforcing”
criminal law.
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How is law formed? Why are certain acts
illegal?
How are laws enforced and with whom?
Theories of “law breaking”
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Micro = Why is one person more crime prone
than others? (DV is “criminal behavior”)
Macro = Why is one group more crime prone
than others? (DV is “crime rate”)
How do you know a “good theory”
when you see one?

Akers’ 6 criteria for evaluating a theory
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Logical Consistency
Scope
Parsimony
Testability
Fit with Empirical Evidence
Usefulness of Policy Implications
Logical Consistency

Clearly Defined Concepts


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Concept = symbol/label that we apply to
an abstract image
Examples?
Concepts must fit in a logical manner

BAD LOGIC: All crime is caused by
imprisonment
SCOPE (not the mouthwash)
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DEPENDENT variable
How “general” is your explanation?
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Specific forms of crime/deviance?
All crime?
All crime, deviance, sin, and recklessness?
All else being equal, “Wider is Better”
Parsimony
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INDEPENDENT (predictor) variables
How complex is your explanation?

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Parsimony: Low self-control is single cause
of crime
Not: Crime caused by a combination of
poverty, inequality, average daily
temperature, intelligence, hair color,
weight, daily stress…
All else being equal, more parsimony is
better!
Testability


A valid theory can be falsified
Non-falsifiable theories?

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Tautological arguments (crime causes
crime)
Vague and open-ended statements (Freud)
Must be observe/measure concepts (little
green men)
Is the theory correct?
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Survive empirical scrutiny
Few theories are entirely correct or false
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To what degree is the theory supported?
Preponderance of evidence support?
Incorrect theories must be modified or
discarded
Policy Implication

All crime theories attempt to identify
the “causes” of crime.
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Can the causes be reversed?
Does the theory translate into practice?
Example: Marxist theory of crime
Flow Chart for Evaluation
NO = Useless,
stop here
Falsifiable?
Logical?
YES
Yes
Empirical
Evidence?
Evaluate the
Following:
•Scope
•Parsimony
•Policy Implications
NO: Modify/Discard
Empirical Principles I

Establishing Causation

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X (predictor) must precede Y (outcome)
X must be related to Y
The relationship between X and Y must not
be “spurious”
Ruling out Spuriousness
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Experiments
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“Random assignment”
Survey Research
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Cross-sectional vs. Longitudinal
Statistical Control
Self-report and Official Data