Chap 4: Resources
and Environment
Learning Objectives
•
•
•
•
Resources vs Consumption
Zero Sum Game & Optimal Population
Resource measurement & limits
Present food situation – distribution not
production
• Possible long term solutions
– Local production
– New food sources
– Genetic alterations
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I. Resources and
Population
A. Carrying Capacity
vs Overpopulation
• Recent growth of
resource consumption
in AICs [Advance
Industrial Countries]
has dwarfed growth of
demand in LDCs
• The issue isn't bodies,
its consumption
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Zero Sum Game
• Define Zero Sum Game
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ZERO SUM GAME
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
• describes a situation in which one
participant's gain (or loss) is exactly
balanced by the losses (or gains) of the
other participant(s).
• total gains of the participants and subtract
the total losses then they will sum to zero.
• In layman's terms, in order for one person
to win, another must lose.
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ZERO SUM GAME
Is the world resource issue a zero sum
game?
• What I have you don’t have
• What I have you can’t have
• Hint Marx implied a Zero sum game, Bill
Gates and Milton Friedman don’t.
http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/photo/art/marx-11.jpg
http://www.jmusheneaux.com/GATES2%20/bill-gates-mugshot.jpg
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ZERO SUM GAME ???
Over Population/Consumption
• To play the "zero sum game"
you need to know when you
reach “zero” or full use,
– at that we can only guess
– this has been a moving target
due to technological
advancement
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ZERO SUM GAME ???
Over Population/Consumption
• Consider that Overpopulation
might be:
• an unwanted child
• as much as an unsupportable child
• Over consumption might be a
second automobile for someone
in a nursing home as much as a
Presidential candidate that
doesn’t know how many homes
he owns
• Basically we hope this isn’t a zero
sum game
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Optimum Population
• What is the Optimum Population for the
world, USA, WA State.
• Start by estimating the current population
for each
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Current Population
• World & USA see world clock
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
• WA State
• http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/53
000.html
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Optimum Population
• What is it? -- its all in the eyes of the
perceiver,
• Its the quagmire of sustainable
development
– Everyone is for this
– But no one can adequately describe it
– We can only assert the negative
• What it isn’t
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Optimum Population
• The Mayans thought their
population was optimal until it
collapsed
• What is sustainable energy
use? Should all fossil fuels be
banned? What about hydro
dams (called “bridge power” by Patick McCully,
2003)?
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Unfortunate
Conclusion
Bottom Line
• Everyone worries about the possibility of
the Zero Sum Game
• Everyone talks Sustainable Development
• No one knows what Optimum Population
or Consumption is
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II. Types of resources and
their limits (Define terms)
• Resource Definition: If its presumed
useable and finite (i.e. has a market/
“true price”), then its a resource
– star-shine, not a resource (today)
– air, not understood as a resource
– However Viewsheds are a resource
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Define Resource
Amount
• What is the difference between a
– Reserve
– Projected Reserve
– Resource
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Measuring and Defining
Resources
A. Reserves, Projected Reserves, (total)
Resources
Reserves – known &
available with current
technology & at current
prices (today)
Projected Reserves – based
on expected future prices &
technologies (tomorrow)
Resources – materials in the
Environment that may
someday be used (unknown
if ever)
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Example with Gold
• Reserves – current mines and gold
fields
• Projected Reserves – possible deeper
and more difficult to extract ores,
currently not profitable to mine
• Resources – includes things like sea
water which has gold, but may never
be economical to extract
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Gold Ore
Resource Type
Class exercise
• In the energy field give an example of a
reserve, projected reserve, and resource
• Define Human Resources – what are they
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B. Defining Resource by
Types
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C. Renewable resource and
maximum sustainable yield
An
Endless
Debate
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Recent
good
news -click
Bad
news -click
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Global Fisheries
Collapse Predicted
Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Co-Author
Science Article on Impacts of biodiversity
loss on ocean ecosystem services.
November 06, 2006
A recent Science publication warns that the world
will
run out
seafood
if steep declines
in
world
willofrun
outbyof2048
seafood
by 2048
marine species continue at current rates, based on a
four-year study of catch data and the effects of fisheries
collapses. The co-authors of the paper, written by an
international group of ecologists and economists,
include Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Carl Folke,
Stephen Palumbi, and Enric Sala.
http://www.pewoceanscience.org/press/press-article.php?ID=58
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Global Fisheries
Collapse Predicted
Details
The recent paper, published in the journal Science (Worm et al. 2006), predicts the global collapse (defined as
fish catches dropping below 10 percent of historic catches) of all currently fished taxa by 2048. The prediction is
based on a meta-analysis of published data in which the authors examined the effects of declining species
diversity on marine ecosystem services. Results suggest that the loss of biodiversity in coastal ecosystems has
led to the impairment of critical ecosystem services, such as the filtering services provided by suspension feeders
and submerged vegetation that contribute to the maintenance of high water quality. The authors also used the
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s global catch database for the period from 1950 to 2003 to
examine relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 64 large marine ecosystems (greater than
150,000 square-km).
This analysis revealed that 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed by 2003 and ecosystems with the
fewest species suffered the greatest rates of collapse. The authors note that large marine ecosystems with higher
species diversity also recovered more quickly following periods of overexploitation, perhaps due to the improved
abilities of fishers to switch among species, thus giving overexploited species the opportunity to recover. Finally,
the authors examined relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 44 marine reserves and four
large-scale fisheries closures. On average, these regions had species richness 23 percent greater than nonprotected areas. Tourism revenue, measured as the number of dive trips, also was increased in these areas,
suggesting that not only do diverse marine fisheries serve as major global food sources, but they also provide
opportunities for recreation.
The authors conclude that the loss of marine biodiversity is negatively impacting the marine ecosystem services
on which we depend. Yet they believe the trend is reversible and, therefore, urge the restoration of biodiversity
through careful management of fisheries, maintenance of pollution-free habitats, and creation of marine reserves.
Citation
Worm, B., E.B. Barbier, N. Beaumont, J.E. Duffy, C. Folke, B.S. Halpern, J.B.C. Jackson, H.K Lotze, F. Micheli, S.R. Palumbi, E. Sala,
K.A. Selkoe, J.J. Stachowicz, and R. Watson. 2006. Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314: 787-790.
Link to Abstract in Science Magazine
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He quoted an estimate from the World Bank that if all
fisheries around the world were better managed, they
wouldbe
beworth
worth
$50bn
a year
more
than
their
would
$50bn
a year
more
than
their
current
current
total contribution
of global
$274bn
to global
total
contribution
of $274bn to
GDP.
But theGDP
number of fisheries that are subject to a sustainable
management programme are still a minority, and global
fish stocks are falling fast. According to the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, at least a
third are now overexploited, depleted or recovering
from depletion, and this figure is rising.
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Examples
• Will Cod fishing ever return to
Newfoundland?
• Should irrigation agriculture be banned
over the Ogallala Aquifer in the US?
• Should American students buy cheap
Chinese furniture made from SE Asian
wood?
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Newfoundland Cod
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fishing methods and the fishery collapse
In 1951 factory fishing began with new super-trawlers such as the 'Fairtry'; 280 feet
long and 2,600 gross tons.[3]
The cod catch peaked in 1968 at 810,000 tons, approximately three times more than
the maximum yearly catch achieved before the super-trawlers. Approximately 8
million tons of cod were caught between 1647 and 1750, a period encompassing 25
to 40 cod generations. The factory trawlers took the same amount in 15 years.[5]
The industry collapsed entirely in the early 1990s owing to overfishing and
debatably, greed, lack of foresight and poor local administration.[6] By 1993 six cod
populations had collapsed, forcing a belated moratorium on fishing.[5] Spawning
biomass had decreased by at least 75% in all stocks, by 90% in three of the six
stocks, and by 99% in the case of 'northern' cod, previously the largest cod fishery in
the world.[5]
After a 10 year moratorium on fishing the cod had still not returned.[7] It is likely that
the local ecosystem has changed, one example being that greater numbers of
capelin, which used to provide food for the cod, now eat the juvenile cod.[citation needed]
The waters now appear to be dominated by crab and shrimp rather than fish.[7]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_fishing_in_Newfoundland
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Newfoundland
Timeline
• 1500s – Basque fishermen arrive
• 1951 – Factory Fishing Begins
• 1968 – Peak catch 810,000 tons
– Comparison 1647-1750 8 mil. Tons caught, factory trawlers
caught same amount in 15 yrs
• 1977 Canada Extends boundary out 200 miles – then proceeds
to decimate what’s left
• 1978 Collapse already noticable
• 1988 call for cutting quotas by 50% instead compromise at 10%
• 1992 – fish stocks down to 1% of 1960s levels, fishing halted
• 1993 – six cod populations had collapsed including northern
cod the largest cod fishery in the world
• 1996 – fishery closed – too little, too Food
late
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Source: http://www.emagazine.com/archive/507
Are Tuna Next?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5o8lwwanuc
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More on Tuna
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5mMI8t7vV0&feature=related
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Is there hope
– mixed
evidence
from
Newfoundland
http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=4ikRWTyE2xo
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III. Food resources -- Let's
Consider the Situation
A. Main Point: Today the problem is not
production it is distribution -- What
does this mean?
– Asia and Latin America have seen recent
per capita gains
– Not so in Africa (where will the next wave
of immigrants come from?)
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Food Problems
World Deserts
• Note the Food Shortage Link to Deserts
• What might global warming do? Food Resources
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Example of Desert
Belts
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=TRMM_3B43M#
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Climate Zones & Deserts
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http://www.blueplanetbiomes.org/climate.htm
35
Deserts are
encroaching cities.
Photograph by Georg
Gerster. Sahara dunes
tower over Nouakchott,
capital of Mauritania,
like a big hungry
monster. Just 5,000
years ago the Sahara
was covered with
grasses and shrubs.
http://didyouknow.org/deserts/#
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http://www.greenfacts.org/en/desertification/figtableboxes/appendix-a.htm
36
Caloric Intake View
Does
this
look too
familiar
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B. Resulting
Problem: Maledistribution
CAUSES
1. TRANSPORT: Local transport unable
to respond to acute, sudden needs (but
*AIC’s air transport can, at greater cost)
– political unrest always a wildcard here,
consider the problems of Tsunami Aid in
Indonesia and Sri Lanka
*AIC = Advance Industrialized
Country
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Example
ZAIRE
Population 32,000,000
Area 2,345,457 sq km
(Four times larger than
Texas) Capital Kinshasa.
Large state taking up the
central part of Africa. Apart
from narrow strip to the
Atlantic Ocean
Diary of a cross-Africa Biker: On my way
to Uganda, not far from the Uganda border,
I could choose out of two (dirt) roads only
(a third option would lead me to a small
civil war in the north of Uganda, that is
no choice). A bad one and a very bad one.
Because the bad one was bad enough for
me I chose to take the shortcut from
Mambassa to Beni. The other main dirt
road of north Zaïre was actually the only
road, connecting the north from Zaïre to
the east of Zaïre. But because of the
raining season and the enormous
potholes, it was impossible for the old
Fiat and Mercedes trucks to pass. There
was no traffic possible for several weeks
already! The road I decided to conquer was
too small for the trucks and therefore not
so bad, I thought. http://www.euronet.nl/users/arold/bridge.html
http://hammer.prohosting.com/~penz/encycl/z1encyc.htm
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2. STORAGE and
MARKETING
Storage and Marketing major concerns -limits food availability
• Storage problems reflect a short time
horizon
– Large losses to Spoilage and Pests
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2. STORAGE and
MARKETING
Lack of Free Markets
• Lack of adequate communication,
transportation, & incentives leads to
hoarding
– true "free" market could largely overcome this
issue
• landlordism vs landless ("Monopoly", not
the game) -- low incentive to produce
surplus
• Poor Financial Markets -- money lenders that
are like parasites
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3. SITE CONSIDERATION
Variation in global FOOD
resource potential
• Americans as the "Opec" leader of
grain?
• Can't move the mountain, then move to
the mountain (immigration pull
factor???)
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Question
• Name other countries that are top 10 food
exporters
• Second try ranking them
• If you can’t think of 10 then give as many
as possible
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3. Variation in global
FOOD resource potential
• Americans as the "Opec" leader of
grain? – Note also Europe
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4. Additional Issues
• Civil Unrest -- even if food potential
high, not available
• Environmental Decline -- production
can decline
– REASONS
• lack of full knowledge -- leads to destructive
practices
• population pressures
• tragedy of the commons
• "bad science"
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4. Additional Issues
cont.
• Government Policy & Debt
– No discipline of the marketplace
– What did American banks do when offered
a “free lunch”?
– Punish the farmers, Bribe the industrial
workers (the shadow of Stalin and central
planning)
– Sound like the Washington Consensus?
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4. Additional Issues
cont. (Neo Classical?)
Structure of Agriculture
• Big Farmer vs Small
Farmer debate
• Issue of a maximizer
versus a satisficer
• Scale economies not
available to small
farmers
• Cash crops not food
favored by big
landlords
Graph for a typical 3rd World Nation
– is there no free market
for food in third
world?
This demonstrates that larger farms produce a
greater percentage of food for the market, but
doesn’t address output per acre
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4. Additional Issues
cont.
• “Unfair” Agricultural Subsidies
– Can the third world compete with subsidized
first world farmers??? Recall France’s
position in surplus/export production.
– Example: The US has the highest priced
sugar in the world??? Why?
• Why can’t we buy
cheaper Mexican sugar,
our NAFTA partner?
• What does this do to
candy manufacturing jobs?
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D. Suggested
Solutions to Food
Resource Issue
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Suggestions
• Give at least two suggestions
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1. Increasing Local
Production (More Food Answer)
a) More (or More Intensive use of)
Cultivated area – make More “LAND”
•
•
•
•
limited scope
environmental issues (marginal lands)
high development costs
China has already topped-out (see next slide)
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Increase, Decrease and Stock of
Cultivated Land in China, 1988 1995
Basically China will be losing Agricultural
Land over the long run
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Details on China
Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994.
This chart demonstrates that China's
cultivated land (as in any
other country) is not just a given natural resource
stock, but the result of various simultaneous
processes of increase and decline.
In 1995, for instance, China lost some 798.1 thousand hectares of cultivated
land: most of it was converted to horticulture (red bar), used for reforestation
(blue bar), or was lost in disasters - mainly floods and draughts (yellow bar).
However, China's farmers also expanded the cultivated land by some 388.9
thousand hectares - mainly by reclamation of previously unused areas, but
also by conversion of areas, which were previously used for other purposes.
The net-change of these increases and declines, which amounted to some
409.1 thousand hectares, reduced the stock of cultivated land only slightly.
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Details on China
Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994.
Some general trends can be easily inferred from this chart:
(1) Approximately 70 to 75% of China's cultivated land"losses" are not what people usually imagine - a
permanent transformation of cropland into
infrastructure or urban areas. Most cultivated landlosses are conversions into other types of agricultural
use or losses due to disasters. Infrastructure, settlements and
industries account for only some 10 to 15% of the losses.
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Details on China
Source: State Land Administration, Statistical Information on the Land of China in 1995. Beijing, 1996. And equivalent reports for 1988 to 1994.
(2) There is a clear trend of growing decreases since
1990 - a year, when the decreases where actually smaller than the
increases of cultivated land. This trend is not matched by an equivalent
amount of reclamation, which results in a growing net-loss of cultivated
Land in China.
See also: Fisher, G. / Chen, Y. / Sun, L. (1989): The balance of cultivated
land in China during 1988-1995. International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Interim Report IR-98047 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/land/land_1.htm
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Another
Estimate
of Ag. Land
Loss
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Urban Agriculture?
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b) Attempts at Raising
productivity (Greater Efficiency)
• Technology: Green Revolution -- mixed
results – high on energy use
• Social change: Are we not maximizers?
Why are some not allowed to maximize
http://www.rferl.org/content/Father_Of_Green_Revolution_Dies_At_95/1822473.html
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Technological Fix – Green
Revolution
• INDIA's Green
Revolution
Foodgrains
production (in
million tonnes)
(Approximate percentage
share in total foodgrain
production is given in
brackets)
• Production Triples
in 45 years
– Wheat increases over 7
times.
Description
1950-51 quantity
1983-94
(percent of
total)
Rice
20.6 (40%)
59.2 (39%)
Wheat
6.4 (13%)
45.2 (30%)
Jowar
5.5 (11%)
11.9 ( 8%)
Bajra
2.6 ( 5%)
7.6 ( 5%)
Maize
1.7 ( 3%)
7.9 ( 5%)
Other cereals
6.1 (12%)
6.5 ( 4%)
Pulses
8.4 (17%)
12.6 (8%)
Total foodgrains
50.8 (100%)
151.5
(100%)
Source : Based on data given in Sixth and Seventh Plan documents
and Annual Economic Surveys. From Dogra, op.cit.
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2. Creating New Food
a) Cultivate the Oceans
What are the issues here?
b) "Designer Foods" -- High Protein Cereals
Can conventional technology help?
c) More efficient use of resources
Especially water
d) Will people eat the new foods?
question of
taste and preferences
price
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3. Genetic
Engineering
• Move into the unknown
• Better use of limited resources or
“Frankenfoods”???
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17.3 million farmers
grow altered crops
How many farmers plant GM worldwide?
A record 17.3 million farmers grew GM crops in 2012, up from 16.7 million farmers in
2011.
Worldwide, 170.3 million hectares were planted with GM crops in 28 countries – an 100fold increase since they were introduced in 1996. This is about the same size as the
territories of Spain, Germany, France and the UK combined.
http://www.europabio.org/how-many-farmers-plant-gm-worldwide
http://www.upi.com/inc/view.php?StoryID=20030115-035541-1751r
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China Rushes to Adopt
Genetically Modified Crops
NY TIMES - 10/7/00
By CRAIG S. SMITH
SHAHEXIN VILLAGE, China - Until Monsanto introduced a genetically altered cotton
plant here in the buckle on the Chinese Cotton Belt three years ago, farmers like Ma
Yuzhuo sprayed their fields with tons of organophosphate pesticides to kill bollworms,
grubs that feed on immature cotton bolls.
So toxic is the compound, which is similar to the basic ingredient of nerve gas, that
many people die from exposure to it each year, though the government will not disclose
the number of fatalities.
Bioengineered crops are not grown much in Western Europe and have raised safety concerns in the United States.
But China has embraced them, growing cotton and other crops faster than any other Asian nation.
Saving lives is one motivation. But saving its farm economy is the chief concern. China hopes that genetics can save
farmers like Mr. Ma from devastation by helping produce lower-cost high-quality products after it joins the World Trade
http://ipm.osu.edu/trans/10_071.htm
Organization.
https://isaaa.org/resources/publications/pocketk/5/default.asp
ISAAA.org: Documented Benefits of GM Crops
The global area planted to GM crops has consistently increased over the past
years. Substantial share of GM crops has been grown in developed countries. In the last
few years, however, there has been a consistent increase in the number of hectares being
planted to GM crops in the developing world. Fifty four percent (54%) of the total global GM
crop area is now being grown in developing countries. A significant increase in GM crop
area was reported in developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Experiences
Foodalso
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from these countries show that resource-poor farmers can
benefit from this
technology.
What me worry???
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Franken Food & Green
Revolution Sites
Genetic Engineering vs Franken Food
• ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU8XrioF4CE&feature=related
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKIzt54RnpM&NR=1
Africa’s Green Revolution
• http://www.clipsyndicate.com/video/playlist/7981/753171?cpt=8&title=beef_
magazine&wpid=0
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Radio Clip
Making News: WTO Says Europe Must Accept
Genetically Modified Crops
A new survey shows that Europeans are more worried
about genetically modified food than terrorism, but
yesterday the World Trade Organization reportedly ruled
against government bans on genetically engineered
imports. Justin Gillis, who writes on biotechnology for the
Washington Post, says Europe's concerns over
genetically modified crops range from safety to the
environment.
Aired Wednesday, February 8, 2006.
[GUEST LIST
& LINKS]
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What IF???
• What if our Petroleum supply was
suddenly cutoff? Then what would we
do?
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So how does an
individual make out?
http://www.havana-guide.com/lifeinhavana.html
The average Cuban salary is about 350-400 Peso
Nacional. One Peso Convertible CUC equals 0.9 USA
dollars or 24 Peso Nacional. Some people work for less
in shops or museums. There are dentists earning as little
as 10 dollars a month. A taxi driver can make more
money than a doctor.
Ending Thoughts
• Was Malthus correct or incorrect?
• Releasing the "untapped human
resources"
• "Let's Do It" [sic] a revolution -- my
place or yours
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Summary
1. Is it too little resource or too much
consumption
•
Too many mouths or too much consumption
2. Recall what a Zero Sum Game Is
3. Is there an Optimal Population?
4. Who defines Sustainable Development?
And what the heck is it?
5. What are resources and what are their
limits
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Summary
6. What is maximum sustainable yeild?
7. Food currently the main issue is
distribution, explain
8. Where are the food problem areas and
why?
9. What are the suggested solutions for
future food problems and how well might
they work?
10. What is your take on the Cuban
approach?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5o8lwwanuc
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/05/japan-wontcomply-with-bl_n_487448.html
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20020630/nfld_cod_annivers
ary020630/
http://ntv.ca/video/?p=15240