If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Or the use of the scientific method and
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming
“There’s really no need anymore to spread
guilt and fear about the environment. The
solution side is to try and figure out how to
do things better; not to have campaigns
against everything in the world, but rather to
have campaigns in which you are shifting
things from the way you did before into
doing things in a new way that still provides
the goods and services we need but to do so
at less cost to the environment.”
Patrick Moore (former President of Greenpeace
Is the planet getting warmer?
Yes
Mars's southern polar ice cap, seen here in true color, has shrunk
in recent years due to planetary warming—similar to what's
happening on Earth. According to one scientist's controversial
take, the simultaneous rise in temperatures on Earth and Mars
indicates a natural—and not a human—cause for global warming.
But the vast majority of experts maintain that humans are
responsible for Earth's climate changes and that the Mars
phenomenon is mere coincidence.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Photograph courtesy NASA
So is Mars and Triton. Is the reason the same or is it coincidental?
Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL
"At least since 1989, Triton has been undergoing a period of
global warming. Percentage-wise, it's a very large increase,"
said Elliot, professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary
Sciences and director of the Wallace Astrophysical Observatory.
The 5 percent increase on the absolute temperature scale from
about minus-392 degrees Fahrenheit to about minus-389
degrees Fahrenheit would be like the Earth experiencing a
jump of about 22 degrees Fahrenheit.
This work is supported in part by NASA, the
National Science Foundation and the
http://science.nasa.gov/current/event/mit.htm
National Geographic Society
http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143data_trunc_sys.shtml
Earth is not Mars, then again Earth is not Venus. Mars has a
much thinner atmosphere and no water to speak of. Venus is
too close to the sun to possess liquid water, and the Venetian
atmosphere is almost entirely CO2 and clouds of sulfuric acid,
its water having long ago boiled away.
The climates of these planets are then driven by entirely
different mechanisms and comparisons must be very limited and
made carefully drawing no conclusions.
The moon Triton is between 30% and 40% water and too far
from the sun for very much to be liquid. Earth is only 0.023%
water, most of which is liquid water.
Even accounting for common influences such as tilt, wobble,
and the energy of the sun the weather patterns and climates of
these solar bodies cannot be compared and each must be
evaluated separately.
In twenty years the ice pack in the
Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2
million sq. km. The Antarctic ice
pack has increased by 1.2 million
sq. km. This does not factor in the
depth of ice pack. Still, it seems
likely the planet is generating more
ice than the planet is losing. The
Northern Hemisphere warming,
the Southern Hemisphere cooling.
Global Warming?
Facts are stubborn
things, and whatever
may be our wishes, our
inclinations, or the
dictates of our
passions, they cannot
alter the state of the
facts and the evidence.
John Adams
http://brneurosci.org/co2.html
It is all about the Infrared Absorbtion of Green House Gases. Most of the available artwork on
the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis title and scale. This cartoon at least
has a titled y-axis though Absorption is normally listed as arbitrary units and Transmittance as %.
So does this really tell me anything about the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming ? This
cartoon isolates each gas so does not show the effects of mixing and interaction. It does not show
the effects of altitude, latitude, and longitude or that CO2 is the only evenly distributed gas. Path
length is also not indicated, or that absorbtion is not linearly additive for individual absorbers.
Can we correct some of the previous
issues?
400 ppm = .004%
By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures
0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm
11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X
At left is the Near IR spectra of CO2 and
shows Transmittance for more than 30 times
the average ppmv currently in the atmosphere.
This however is only for a 10 cm path.
Figure below shows the % Transmittance if
you could pack all the CO2 contained in a
volume 10 km tall and traveled through at a 45◦
angle. But again no interactions between CO2
and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or
aerosols. Still this is instructive.
10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km
1.4e5 X path
Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from
zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero %
Transmittance.
The relationship between Transmittance and
Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100)
= -log(.94) = .027
= -log(0.01) = 2
http://chemistry.beloit.edu/warming/pdf/IRConc.pdf
Approximately 50% Transmittance
Still only near IR, but a little more instructive. This is a graph from the author’s under-graduate
work in ’95-’96. This spectra is actually mislabeled. This is a spectra of the Absorbance of the
atmosphere saturated with water vapor at room temperature in the lab, and not just water . It is
taken using only a 1 cm path length. It would be interesting to do this experiment again being
very careful to use a model nitrogen/oxygen atmosphere saturated with water for a range of
temperatures with a 400, 800, and 1200 ppmv addition of CO2. Then interpolate over 1 km at
a 45◦ angle path. The fact that IR does not stay absorbed but is reradiated and reabsorbed many
times would averaged out over the life of the data acquisition which can be made from minutes
to hours.
December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere
http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd20jan98_1.htm
Eruption of Mt Chicon
Mexico 1982
Eruption of Mt Pinatubo
Mexico 1991
"Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above
show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years.
The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will
continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue."
Surface, Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe: Is there a difference when referring to
warming?
Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel
TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events
and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time
series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower
Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El
Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects.
http://www.ssmi.com/
Start
Time
Stop
Time
#
Global Trend
Years
Channel TLT
1979
2007-10
28
0.178 K/decade
Channel TMT
1979
2007-10
28
0.119 K/decade
Channel TTS
1987
2007-10
20
0.032 K/decade
Channel TLS
1979
2007-10
28
-0.322 K/decade
CO2 is responsible for 80% of stratospheric heating rate, 5%
of the tropospheric heating rate. There is a difference even if
you use only satellite data in the decadal temperature trends.
Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global
temperature is more problematic. See
http://www.surfacestations.org/ for more information.
1934
1998
2006
1921
1931
1999
1953
1990
1938
1939
10 hottest years
16
Surface Air Temperature trends from
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
15.5
Degrees Celsius
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Temperature Anomaly
1.24
1.24
1.15
1.13
1.08
0.94
0.9
0.88
0.85
0.84
15
14.5
14
13.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1917
1912
1893
1924
1883
1895
1903
1885
1884
1892
y = 0.005x + 3.917
Temperature Anomaly
13
-1.07
1880
1930
1980
2030
2080
-0.9
Year
-0.81
-0.76
-0.73 3 of the 5 hottest years occurred before 1940. 1998 was the
-0.69 most dramatic El Nino since the 80’s. dramatic increases in fossil
-0.66 fuel use started in the 50’s. Even so will the trend continue or
-0.65 will it turn down? In 2106 on this trend the temp will be about
-0.63 the same as 1974 + 0.5◦C. Is this trend anymore reliable than
-0.62 others? Is this really a cause for alarm?
10 coldest years
What is man’s contribution? Scaling is important.
Why does ice core proxy data show a steady
state of CO2 concentration and why is this a
more reliable determinant than direct chemical
titrimetric determinations of CO2?
Who are Maurice Strong and Paul Ehrlich, and
what is their role in this?
It is important to parse the language used and
the questions asked.
The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)
U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000)
(1)
(all concentrations
expressed in ppb)
Natural
additions
Man-made
additions
Total (ppb)
Concentration
Percent of
Total
288,000
68,520
11,880
368,400
99.438%
Methane (CH4)
848
577
320
1,745
0.471%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
285
12
15
312
0.084%
25
0
2
27
0.007%
289,158
69,109
12,217
370,484
100.00%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Misc. gases ( CFC's, etc.)
Total
Pre-industrial
baseline
Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "Greenhouse
Effect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED)
Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted
for heat retention characteristics
% of All
Greenhouse Gases
% Natural
% Man-made
95.000%
94.999%
0.001%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
3.618%
3.502%
0.117%
Methane (CH4)
0.360%
0.294%
0.066%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
0.950%
0.903%
0.047%
Misc. gases ( CFC's, etc.)
0.072%
0.025%
0.047%
100.00%
99.72
0.28%
Water vapor
Total
http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
"Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet
of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation
from the Earth, which is what carbon dioxide is
supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy]
is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80
percent, okay? ...: And how much is absorbed by
carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One
one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can
go outside and spit and have the same effect as
doubling carbon dioxide."
Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding
chairman of the University of Wisconsin Dept. of
Meteorology (now the Dept. of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Sciences)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Reid Bryson is an American atmospheric scientist, geologist and meteorologist. He was born in Michigan
in 1920. He completed a B.A. in geology at Denison University in 1941 and a Ph.D. in meteorology from
University of Chicago in 1948. In 1946 he joined the faculty of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and
in 1948 he became the first chairman of the Department of Meteorology. He became the first director of
the Institute for Environmental Studies in 1970. He has written more than 230 articles and five books,
including Climates of Hunger, which won the Banta Medal for Literary Achievement.
CO2 data from Vostock ice cores
There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden),
390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although
the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have
shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.
The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from
Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without
contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of
chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases.
Matching temperatures to the CO2 concentration is not much help here as it has been shown that
temperature increases precede CO2 increases by 800 to 1000 years .
Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about
0.28% of the greenhouse effect. Is this really enough to trigger an imminent disaster?
It is a capital mistake to theorize before
one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist
facts to suit theories instead of theories to
suit facts.
Sherlock Holmes
And sometimes, it seems, that even after
one has data that theories are favored.
For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we
were able to put a man on the moon
For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and
treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide
micro nutrients to end malnutrition
" There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed,
(the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures
-- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former
director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal
Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion
on global warming research (much could be spent smarter) and so far the only
solution offered is we must end the use of fossil fuels.
... no credible dissent from these conclusions. No alternatives
except to end the use of fossil fuels...
Climate Controls
If we treated global warming as a technical problem instead of
a moral outrage, we could cool the world.
Gregory Benford | November 1997
http://www.reason.com/news/show/30433.html
Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
http://www.oism.org/pproject/
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/Index.jsp
http://xtronics.com/reference/globalwarming.htm
The Chilling Stars by Henrik Svensgard and Nigel Calder
Unstoppable Global Warming S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery
Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment?
Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when
it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested
we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from
covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited.
Hypothesis: It's not the CO2 we generate, it is not even the
waste heat we generate, it is our inefficient use of energy.
Observations:
non reflective low albedo road surfaces
the urban heat island effect
internal combustion engine waste heat
air conditioner compressor exhaust
refrigerator heat exhaust
Sample albedos
Surface
Albedo
Fresh asphalt
0.04
Conifer forest
(Summer)
0.08
Worn asphalt
0.12
Bare soil
0.17
Green grass
0.25
Desert sand
0.40
New concrete
0.55
Fresh snow
0.80–0.90
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island_effect
Engine Efficiency
The efficiency of internal combustion engines is lower than
electric motor energy efficiency. Most, even when aided with
turbochargers, have a mechanical efficiency of about 20% to
37%. Internal combustion engines waste ~36% of the energy
in gasoline as heat lost to the cooling system, 38% through the
exhaust, and about 6%, to friction.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_combustion_engine#Engine_Efficiency
A summary of Benford’s paper
“Using a small telescope and makeshift gear, astronomers easily showed that we reflect 30
percent of incoming sunlight back into space - a number that our satellite system got earlier,
at a price tag of hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Geoengineering
add particulates – design experiments; stay within natural variability, i.e. volcanoes
grow plants - trees in areas of low interest, but need to watch water consumption
- oceanic phytoplankton – “Geritol Solution” +iron, grow, sequester
Reflectivity - a 0.5% change in albedo solves the problem.
Outer space parasol
Naval guns and reflective chaff
grow shade trees
more concrete and white roof tops
jet fuel
make clouds – coal burning ships at sea
I’m all for dumping a couple million dollars worth of iron
filings into the Arctic Ocean and see what happens. The
water is cold and holds a lot of CO2. The phytoplankton
will serve as a food source and will sequester CO2. If the
ice age starts we can stop quickly.
If we are going to meddle in such a
complicated open system...
Entia non sunt multiplicanda
praeter neccessitatem
(Keep it simple stupid)
Smarter Automobility
Pneumatic cars
BMW Steam turbine
uses waste heat.
Electric cars
Effective Electric Car?
Power cells find uses for fossil fuel - Brief Article
Science News, March 18, 2000 by C. Wu
A new fuel cell that runs on hydrocarbons such as natural gas, butane, and diesel could be an efficient,
practical way to generate power without pollution. Unlike typical fuel cells, which run on hydrogen, this new
device oxidizes fossil fuels to produce electricity. Hydrogen fuel cells produce only water as a by-product,
making them an attractive power source for electric cars. Storing volatile hydrogen onboard a vehicle raises
worries about safety, however.
Application of Direct Oxidation of Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels in
Solid Oxide Fuel Cells to Automotive Auxiliary Power Units
Gary M. Crosbie, Erica Perry Murray, and David R. Bauer, Research
Laboratory, Ford Motor Company
Hyuk Kim, Seungdoo Park, John M. Vohs, and Raymond J. Gorte,
University of Penn.
Combine with
News Feature
Nature 448, 746-748 (16 August 2007) |
doi:10.1038/448746a; Published online 15 August
2007
There is a Correction (8 November 2007) associated
with this document.
Materials chemistry: Space invaders
Abstract: Space exploration usually means leaving Earth's
orbit. But chemists are now burrowing inside solids to open
new vistas. Katharine Sanderson reports from the internal
frontier.
MOF’s capable of storing
methane in low pressure
tanks. Developed by Dr.
Omar Yaghi and
manufactured by BASF.
Perhaps a practical electric car
without large lithium ion
batteries?
Smarter Housing
Thicker R-36 E.P.S. Insulation
...only recommend 9" (R-36) thick
insulation...If you are not in the zero degree
areas instead of purchasing thicker
insulation ...put that money towards double
or triple paned windows and insulated
doors; as windows and doors are where
your cooled or heated air will escape.
High albedo, better insulation, walls, windows
Take the kitchen outside, don’t air condition
the oven.
E.P.S. - Expanded Bead Polystyrene Insulation
http://design.hgtv.com/kitchen/SpecialFeatures_detail.aspx?id=1
German Government Study Questions Value of Wind Power
Written By: Iain Murray and Myron Ebell Published In: Environment News Publication Date: June 1, 2005
To replace fossil fuels with wind, solar, biomass would
require a land mass equivalent to South America (22
million sq. km, China (10 million sq. km, and India
(3 million sq. km) combined.
Why did the German’s do it and why are we? Lucrative tax shelters and Governmental subsidies
On a smaller personal scale these solutions still make a great deal of sense, especially solar
when using the new plastic solar cells. But these options should be based on valued
incentives and goals. The current legislation using targeted incentives and voluntary goals
has reduced US greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/05/20050518-4.html
300-400 years of coal buys time to be even smarter. There is
more to the smart use of coal (DOE funded project) than
just energy; marketable chemicals and solid byproducts.
http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/gasification/
Uranium and thorium are already heating
the Earth’s crust whether we use the heat
or not. Eventually this finite resource will
be consumed. The recycling featured here
becomes expensive by the third step, but
will buy us time to find a cheap and
renewable energy source that does not
require wholesale changes to the
environment. The final waste that cannot
be recycled needs 500 years storage. Buys
us CO2 free energy in the process.
In the December 2005 edition of
Scientific American.
Smarter Use of Nuclear Waste
By William H. Hannum, Gerald E. Marsh
and George S. Stanford
http://www.nationalcenter.org/NuclearFastReactorsSA1205.pdf
We are not chickens. We can be smart about this and
not bankrupt the world in the process. We do have
time and the ability. We need to fix the things we can
and remove the politics from this issue.