Online Weather Tools and
Decision Making
Mark Schilling
Cambridge, Vermont
Today’s Presentation
CLAS - WX
Online at
www.claswx.com
Three Topics
• Online Weather Tools
• The Missing Weather Products
• Weather Decision Making
General Aviation Pilot’s
Guide to Preflight Weather
Planning, Weather SelfBriefings, and Weather
Decision Making
www.faa.safety.gov
PDF Document Link
Weather Requirement
Sec. 91.103 - Preflight action.
Each pilot in command shall, before
beginning a flight, become familiar with all
available information concerning that flight.
This information must include -(a) For a flight under IFR or a flight not in the
vicinity of an airport, weather reports and
forecasts, ………
How to Obtain a Good
Weather Briefing
www.faa.safety.gov
PDF Document Link
Online Weather Tools
•
•
•
•
Availability
Accuracy
Accountability
Accessibility
Availability
Hundred of sources (each with it’s
own web address)
Availability
Internet Services
• NWS
• NOAA
• DUATS
• Commercial Paid Services (AOPA)*
• Commercial Free Services (ads)
• Blastvalve Weather
Availability
PDA / Cell Services
• DUATS (free)
• Blastvalve (free)
• Commercial Paid Services (Pilot My-Cast)
• Commercial Free Services (ads)
Blastvalve Weather for your
PDA
Accuracy
Frequent updates allow for better
accuracy in changing conditions
Accuracy
• DUATS data source is exactly the same as
Flight Service briefing. Only the interpretation is
changed.
• Most other online services use the same
commercial sources.
• IMPORTANT! Except for DUATS, Make sure
pages are refreshed. Check the date and time.
Accountability
(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)
Direct User Access Terminal System
(DUATS). Get a printed version of the FSS
briefing package by obtaining a standard
briefing for your route on DUATS. … this
resource provides weather information in an
FAA-approved format and records the
transaction as an official weather briefing.
Accountability
(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)
You might want to print out selected portions
of the DUATS computer briefing for closer
study and easy reference when you speak to
a Flight Service briefer.
Accountability
• DUATS Flight Service reports are
documented with a unique number for
each briefing. (Jot it down)
• Printouts of other data is a good idea to
CYA
Accessibility
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli
ck.php?CityName=Waterbury&sta
te=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.5
584&textField2=-73.0374&e=0
Or….
Accessibility
www.claswx.com
A website of weather product links
for CLAS members
The Missing Weather
Products
Hint: They don’t come from Flight
Service
Analysis of Weather Systems
•
•
•
•
•
Synoptic Scale – big picture
Mesoscale – our local weather
Storm Scale - thunderstorms
Microscale – dust devils and thermals
Misoscale – inside storms (good luck!)
Synoptic Scale
Meteorology
A horizontal length scale of the order of 1000
kilometres (about 620 miles) or more . Most
high and low pressure areas seen on weather
maps are synoptic-scale systems.
PRODUCT: Weather Synopsis
Storm Scale Meteorology*
A scale of sizes of weather systems on the
order of individual thunderstorms.
PRODUCT: Radar
Microscale Meteorology *
Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; features
generally too small to be depicted on a weather map.
These include small and generally fleeting cloud
"puffs" and other small cloud features. Microscale
meteorology controls the most important mixing and
dilution processes in the atmosphere.
PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense
Storm Scale Meteorology*
A scale of sizes of weather systems on the
order of individual thunderstorms.
PRODUCT: Radar
Misoscale Meteorology
Paraglider Ewa Wisnerska was caught in a
thunderstorm while training for the
Paragliding World Championships near
Tamworth, Australia. As two storm cells
merged, an updraft sucked Wisnerska to
32,612 feet above sea level.
Mesoscale Meteorology
Weather systems smaller than synoptic scale
systems but larger than microscale and
storm-scale cumulus systems. Horizontal
dimensions generally range from around 5
kilometers to several hundred kilometers.
Examples of mesoscale weather systems are
sea breezes, squall lines, rising thermals or
acceleration through a narrow mountain pass.
PRODUCT: Forecasts???
PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather
phenomena are small, and often
quick to develop and change.
• Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours
and amended only with a substantial change in
overall conditions.
• Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only
twice daily.
• Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.
NEED: An operational weather
prediction system to serve users
needing frequently updated shortrange weather forecasts, including
those in the aviation community
and severe weather forecasting
community.
Rapid Update Cycle
High-frequency (hourly) short-range
weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in
support of aviation and other mesoscale
weather forecast users
http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/
RUC – Balloonists Wind
Forecast
www.ryancarlton.com
GOOD NEWS:
Highly Accurate – Updates
hourly - Selectable to multiple
local reporting stations
CT-11
MA-33
BAD NEWS:
Private enterprise with little or
no funding. Downtimes can
be extensive
Inspiration
• Penny Christy
• Andre Charpentier
PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather
phenomena are small, and often
quick to develop and change.
•Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours
and amended only with a substantial change in
overall conditions.
•Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only twice
daily.
•Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.
NEED: Current wind reporting
information which covers all flight
levels above the surface, tracks
changes in speed and direction,
and is frequently updated.
Velocity Azimuth Display
A product of
WSR 88-D
Doppler Radar
Velocity Azimuth Display
A Doppler radar product which shows the radar
derived wind speeds at various heights. This radar
product shows the wind speeds from 2,000 to
55,000 feet above the ground. VAD and EVAD
(Extended VAD) are methods of guessing the large
scale two-dimensional winds from one-dimensional
radial velocity data.
2
10
14
99
0
15
0 -999.000
Alt
U
V
U_quality V_quality
15.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000
25.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000
35.0000 -4.42783 -2.86866 0.0117679 0.0100526
45.0000 -4.74168 -3.25964 0.00723661 0.00627844
55.0000 -4.97028 -3.56065 0.00523892 0.00461943
65.0000 -5.15894 -3.84263 0.00447775 0.00398398
75.0000 -5.33852 -4.13267 0.00435625 0.00387821
85.0000 -5.50235 -4.41604 0.00418550 0.00372856
95.0000 -5.66219 -4.66417 0.00409816 0.00365585
105.000 -5.82211 -4.86708 0.00393825 0.00352045
115.000 -5.96991 -5.01418 0.00377675 0.00338457
125.000 -6.07160 -5.12148 0.00368898 0.00331722
135.000 -6.08357 -5.22248 0.00375266 0.00339252
145.000 -6.04707 -5.29926 0.00405005 0.00367672
155.000 -6.05737 -5.33868 0.00404991 0.00368617
165.000 -6.08062 -5.35491 0.00421411 0.00384434
175.000 -6.05076 -5.37504 0.00451533 0.00412299
185.000 -6.03161 -5.37407 0.00456651 0.00417622
195.000 -6.01119 -5.36359 0.00461893 0.00423726
205.000 -5.96387 -5.36568 0.00459473 0.00422362
215.000 -5.93641 -5.34472 0.00462578 0.00426286
225.000 -5.91761 -5.30915 0.00473928 0.00438076
235.000 -5.86892 -5.30064 0.00477900 0.00442306
245.000 -5.83777 -5.28342 0.00494448 0.00457834
255.000 -5.82343 -5.25181 0.00514618 0.00477130
265.000 -5.77302 -5.24365 0.00522665 0.00484109
VAD Wind Profile
A radar plot of horizontal winds, derived from VAD
data, as a function of height above a Doppler Radar.
This display is useful for observing local changes in
vertical wind shear, such as backing of low-level
winds, increases in speed shear, and development
or evolution of nearby jet streams (including lowlevel jets).
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GOOD NEWS:
Fairly Accurate – Good reporting of
short-term changes. Refreshes every
10 minutes
BAD NEWS:
Connecticut and Massachusetts in
“Bermuda Triangle” of 3 closest
reporting stations – Clear, dry air
yields no readings
Accessibility
www.claswx.com
A website of weather product links
for CLAS members
Weather Decision
Making
Beth Miller’s Question
What is going on at these
balloon rallies?
Beth Miller’s Question
Incidents at balloon events
are increasing at an
alarming rate. Why?
Why are incidents increasing at
events? Beth thought she would
hear:
•
•
•
•
Pressure from event
Peer pressure
Fear of De-Invitation
Financial
Why are incidents increasing at
events? Beth listened and heard:
•
•
•
•
•
Pilot base getting older
Older means more confident
Less focused as age advances
Slower recovery from partying
Students in 50s. Can now afford the sport
Why are incidents increasing at
events? Beth listened and heard:
•
•
•
•
Congestion - Expressway vs. Local
The terrain has changed
Less experienced crew (pickup crew)
Wind Factor
Discussion
Why are we flying in
weather we would never
consider at home?
Microscale Meteorology *
Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less;
OR LACK THEREOF.
(Sucker Holes)
Microscale meteorology controls the most important
mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere.
PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense
Pilot Decision Making by
Cooler
Albuquerque 2008
“Normally, your first decision is your
best decision.”
- Beth Miller
When does the pilot say
NO?
When does the event
close the field?
Storm Scale Meteorology*
A scale of sizes of weather systems on the
order of individual thunderstorms.
PRODUCT: Radar
“But the weatherman said…”
Solberg 2007
Thunderstorms
(Storm Scale)
Outflow Boundaries
(Mesoscale)
Look to the sky – is it telling you
something?
When does the pilot say
NO?
When does the event
close the field?
Why are these
questions not mutually
exclusive??
Ballooning
vs. FASTCAR
Advance the cause of
Ballooning as a safe activity
vs.
Sanction and marketing of
one of North America’s
premier sports.
First, Do no harm
vs.
Balls to the Wall
FASTCAR
• It’s all about the money
• The only people you hurt are drivers
• The only property you damage is cars
None of these apply to
Ballooning!
“In order for this sport to survive,
we are going to rethink the
decisions we are making . We
don’t want to kill this beautiful
sport”
-Beth Miller
Earl MacPherson
1941-2008