Normal Distribution Z-scores put to use! Section 2.2 Reference Text: The Practice of Statistics, Fourth Edition. Starnes, Yates, Moore Today’s Objectives • The 68-95-99.7 Rule • State mean an standard deviation for The Standard Normal Distribution • Given a raw score from a normal distribution, find the standardized “z-score” • Use the Table of Standard Normal Probabilities to find the area under a given section of the Standard Normal curve. Standard Deviation • In statistics the standard deviation (SD) (represented by the Greek letter sigma, σ) measures the amount of variation or dispersion from the average. • A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean • A high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values. The 68-95-99.7 Rule • How many standard deviations do you think it would take for us to have the entire sample or population accounted for and just have a .03% uncertainty? • In other words, how many standard deviations away from the mean encompasses almost all objects in the study? 3 īŽ The 68-95-99.7 Rule Although there are many Normal curves, they all have properties in common. Definition: The 68-95-99.7 Rule (“The Empirical Rule”) •Approximately 68% of the observations fall within σ of µ. •Approximately 95% of the observations fall within 2σ of µ. •Approximately 99.7% of the observations fall within 3σ of µ. Normal Distributions In the Normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation σ: The 68-95-99.7 Rule • If I have data within 2 standard deviations, then I'm accounting for 95% of observations • Question: what percent is in the left tail? 2.5% 2.5% You Try! • The distribution of number of movies AP Statistic students watch in two weeks is close to normal. Suppose the distribution is exactly Normal with mean đ = 6.84 and standard deviation σ = 1.55 (this is non fiction data) • A) Sketch a normal density curve for this distribution of movies watched. Label the points that are one, two, and three SD away from the mean. • B) What percent of the movies is less that 3.74? Show your work! • C) What percent of scores are between 5.29 and 9.94? Show work! • Remember: Always put your answers back into context! Complete sentence! Example, p. 113 The distribution of Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS) vocabulary scores for 7th grade students in Gary, Indiana, is close to Normal. Suppose the distribution is N(6.84, 1.55). b) What percent of ITBS vocabulary scores are less than 3.74? c) What percent of the scores are between 5.29 and 9.94? Normal Distributions a) Sketch the Normal density curve for this distribution. Standardizing Observations • All normal distributions have fundamentally the same shape. • If we measure the x axis in units of size σ about a center of 0, then they are all exactly the same curve. • This is called the Standard Normal Curve – We abbreviate the normal dist. As đ(đ, đ) • To standardize observations, we change from x values (the raw observations) ī z values (the standardized observations) by the formula: zīŊ xīī īŗ The Standard Normal Distribution • Notice that the z-score formula always subtracts μ from each observation. – So the mean is always shifted to zero đĨ − đ • Also notice that the shifted values are divided by σ, the standard deviation. – So the units along the z-axis represent numbers of standard deviations đ • Thus the Standard Normal Distribution is always N(0,1). Example! • The heights of young women are: N(64.5, 2.5) • Use the formula to find the z-score of a woman 68 inches tall. 68 ī 64.5 zīŊ īŊ 1.4 2.5 • A woman’s standardized height is the number of standard deviations by which her height differs from the mean height of all young women. Break! - 5 Minutes Normal Distribution Calculations • What proportion of all young women are less than 68 inches tall? – Notice that this does not fall conveniently on one of the σ borders – We already found that 68 inches corresponds to a z-score of 1.4 • So what proportion of all standardized observations fall to the left of z = 1.4? • Since the area under the Standard Normal Curve is always 1, we can ask instead, what is the area under the curve and to the left of z=1.4 – For that, we need a table!! The Standard Normal Table • Find Table A of the handout – It is also in your textbook in the very back • Z-scores (to the nearest tenth) are in the left column – The other 10 columns round z to the nearest hundredth • Find z = 1.4 in the table and read the area – You should find area to the left = .9192 • So the proportion of observations less than z = 1.4 is about 91.92% – Now put the answer in context: “About 91.92% of all young women are 68 inches tall or less.” • The Standard Normal Table Because all Normal distributions are the same when we standardize, we can find areas under any Normal curve from a single table. The Standard Normal Table Table A is a table of areas under the standard Normal curve. The table entry for each value z is the area under the curve to the left of z. Suppose we want to find the proportion of observations from the standard Normal distribution that are less than 0.81. We can use Table A: Z .00 .01 .02 0.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 0.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 0.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 Normal Distributions Definition: P(z < 0.81) = .7910 What about area above a value? • Still using the N(64.5, 2.5) distribution, what proportion of young women have a height of 61.5 inches or taller? đĨ − đ 61.5 − 64.5 đ§= = = −1.2 đ 2.5 • From Table A, area to the left of -1.2 =.1151 – So area to the right = 1 - .1151 = .8849 • So about 88.49% of young women are 61.5” tall or taller. What about area between two values? • What proportion of young women are between 61.5” and 68” tall? The facts: • We already know 68” gives z = 1.4 and area to the left of .9192 • We also know 61.5” gives z = -1.2 and area to the left of .1151 • So just subtract the two, and find the proportion between 61.5” and 68”: .9192 - .1151 = .8041 • So about 80.41% of young women are between 61.5” and 68” tall – Remember to write your answer IN CONTEXT!!! Example, p. 117 • Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve Find the proportion of observations from the standard Normal distribution that are between -1.25 and 0.81. Normal Distributions Can you find the same proportion using a different approach? 1 - (0.1056+0.2090) = 1 – 0.3146 = 0.6854 Given a proportion, find the observation x (Working Backwards!) • SAT Verbal scores are N(505, 110). How high must you score to be in the top 10%? • If you are in the top 10%, there must be 90% below you (to the left). • Find .90 (or close to it) in the body of Table A. What is the z-score? – You should have found z = 1.28 • Now solve the z definition equation for x đĨ−đ đ đĨ − 505 1.28 = 110 đĨ = 1.28 ∗ 110 + 505 đĨ =645.8 đ§= • So you need a score of at least 646 to be in the top 10%. How to Solve Problems Involving Normal Distribution • State: Express the problem in terms of the observed variable x (list what x represents, mean? SD?) – (get your ducks in order to work with) • Plan: Draw a picture of the distribution and shade the area of interest under the curve. • Do: Preform the calculations – Standardize x to restate the problem in terms of standard normal variable z – Use Table A and the fact that the total area under the curve is 1 to find the required area under the standard normal curve • Conclude: Write your conclusion in context of the problem. • Lets look at TB pg 120 “Tiger on the Range” • Normal Distribution Calculations When Tiger Woods hits his driver, the distance the ball travels can be described by N(304, 8). What percent of Tiger’s drives travel between 305 and 325 yards? ī ī 305 - 304 īŊ 0.13 8 When x = 325, z = 325 - 304 īŊ 2.63 8 Normal Distributions ī ī When x = 305, z = Using Table A, we can find the area to the left of z=2.63 and the area to the left of z=0.13. 0.9957 – 0.5517 = 0.4440. About 44% of Tiger’s drives travel between 305 and 325 yards. Video explaination • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85G_P LBTX00 Today’s Objectives • The 68-95-99.7 Rule • State mean an standard deviation for The Standard Normal Distribution • Given a raw score from a normal distribution, find the standardized “z-score” • Use the Table of Standard Normal Probabilities to find the area under a given section of the Standard Normal curve. Test Results! • • • • • • Grade: Amount: Marginal % ……A......…….....5……….26% …….B…………...5……...26% 84% Passed …….C…………...6……...32% …….D…………...2……...11% …….F…..............1………..5% 16% Failed • Mean: 81% Max: 100% Min: 50% No Outliers Tracking AP Stats • 2014-2015 (WHS) • • • • • • Ch. 1 Test A5 B5 C6 D2 F1 Ch. 2 Test Ch. 3 Test 14/15 VS 15/16 AP Stats 14/15 15/16 14/15 15/16 14/15 15/16 14/15 15/16 14/15 15/16 Chapter 1 Test Chapter 2 Test Chapter 3 Test Chapter 4 Test Chapter 5 Test A -5 A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- B-5 B- B- B- B- B- B- B- B- C-6 C- C- C- C- C- C- C- C- D-2 D- D- D- D- D- D- D- D- F-1 F- F- F- F- F- F- F- F- Homework Worksheet 1-28 (Multiples of 3) EXTRA CREDIT: You MAY get ONLY 2 additional points added to your test grade for completing the entire assignment 1-28. However, regardless of your score, the maximum you may achieve is an 80%. Sooo, if you have a 79% and you do the extra credit…your test grade will max at 80%