Pseudo-states
1. Located at the margins of geostrategic regions
(“geopolitical blackholes”)
2. Usually associated with minority separatist nationalism
in periphery
2. Region often has a tradition of identity and separateness
3. Pseudo-state defined and set up after conflict – ceasefire lines
4. External benefactor – e.g. Russia for Abkhazia, TMR, S.Ossetia
5. Authoritarianism – close relations of state and crime
6. Transhipment point for smuggled goods
7. Identity and separatist goals grow over time
8. Presence of “matrioshka” identities in the pseudo-state
Examples – Abkhazia, Transniestria, Turkish Republic of N. Cyprus,
Chechnya, Adjaria, S. Ossetia, FARC region of Columbia, Serb
Republic of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo
A region of pseudo-states
Who hates?
The current line-up
Moldovan tragedy
Average monthly wage - $40
(Poland $380)
Drop in life expectancy since 1989
– 6 years
Median year’s wage 1999 - $220
(1991 $2000)
% attending vocational training 5%
(1989 90%)
Av.doctor’s salary - $15/mth (if paid)
Av. teacher’s salary - $50/mth (if paid)
Trans-Dniester Moldovan Republic
One of many pseudo-states in post-Soviet space
Population – 725000; Moldova – 4.5 million
Declared independence – Spring 1992
War June 1992 – about 4000 died
Igor Smirnov elected President 1992
– reelected with 97% of vote
Future?? – public opinion 1998
Join Russia
27%
Join Ukraine
16%
Create federation with Moldova 56%
Bendery High Schoolers attending dance June 1992
Don Cossack volunteers from S. Russia
Bendery June 1992
Cultural Headquarters
of Don Cossacks
Novocherkassk, S. Russia
September 1998
TMR militia “volunteers” June 1992
(note hammer, sickle and red star)
TMR “territorial army” defending Bendery against Moldovan army
June 1992
Refugees from Bendery in Tiraspol June 1992
Caught in the cross-fire Bendery June 1992
Refugees from Bendery fleeing from the
fighting June 1992
14th Army tanks
“commandeered”
by TMR militias
June 1992
Bendery June 1992
“He who lives by
the sword will die
by the sword”
TMR 1992 Memorial
with note of thanks
to the “dead and
living defenders
of Bendery”
Funeral of 35 TMR “defender
volunteers” Bendery 1992
Funeral of 35 TMR “defender volunteers”
Bendery 1992
Destruction of
Buildings in
Bendery
June 1992
Russian 14th Army arrives to stop the fighting
TMR June 1992
16th Century Turkish fort
Near Tiraspol (TMR)
On the border of the Ottoman
Empire
“Glory to the Unions”
Public (municipal) notices Tiraspol September 1998
(Note the red star)
Farmers selling potatoes at open-air market
Tiraspol, TMR September 1998
Main north-south highway in the TMR – note one lane is tarred.
Background is the Dniester river valley and Moldova on west side
September 1998
Lenin street (main thoroughfare) in Tiraspol
September 1998
Communist Party headquarters Tiraspol (TMR) September 1998
Note the Soviet flag
Memorial to the Soviet dead of
World War II battles near Tiraspol
Center of Tiraspol, September 1998
Lenin is all over the world
Tiraspol, TMR, September 1998
Wall (painted tiles) in Dubossary TMR October 1997
Classic Soviet motifs
Duma (parliament) building Tiraspol, TMR September 1998
(Note the statue of Lenin in front)
Dilapidated buildings and street seller Dubosarry TMR
October 1997
Buying petrol from roadside dealer (smuggler)
TMR September 1998
50 rubles? – no! 50,000 rubles
TMR currency- zeros added because of
Inflation greater than 1,000% per year
Constitution of TMR in 3 languages)
Postage stamps of the TMR
Geopolitical Considerations
Russia – solve the problem – create federation with Moldovareduce subsidies – protect Russians
Ukraine – solve the border problem – integrate with Moldova
does not want to be saddled with problem (e.g. troops)
Moldova – 2 wings a) nationalist – integrate fully with Moldova
b) Communists (current govt) – federation possible
Romania – integrate fully with Moldova – protect Russians
TMR government – create a new identity – autonomous region
with Moldova with own economic structures and politics
HOBBESIANS (anarchy reigns, laws/rules absent or flouted
security guaranteed only by strong military, military can
win ‘hearts and minds” - Sheriff in Western town)
U.S. Military Spending
FY 2002 $399.1 billion
3.3% of GDP
China FY2002 $47 billion
3.5-5% of GDP
KANTIANS (progressive trends, multilateralism, negotiation,
trade/cooperation will improve relations, boycotts, World Court, cede
autonomy to multinational body – Bartender in Western town)
France 2.6% of GDP
Germany 1.3% of GDP
United Kingdom 2.3%
(modified from Kagan
“Power and Weakness”)
3 ways to build an EMPIRE
1. Classic empire – conquest, brute force, exploitation – e.g. BELGIUM
2. “Empire by invitation” (Lundestad) – invited to support regime against rebels,
or neighbor (US during the Cold War – Greece, SE Asia, Middle East)
3. “Empire by hegemonic largesse” – economic aid, favorable trade relations,
military hardware/sales, special financial arrangements, air protection
quid pro quo – bases, silence on abuses, access to resources, - US now
in Central Asia and Caucasus/Caspian region
“Whoever rules the Persian Gulf/Caspian Sea region
commands the world’s oil
Whoever rules the world’s oil commands the world-economy
Whoever rules the world-economy commands the world”
(with apologies to Sir Halford J. Mackinder)
Percentage saying “definitely happen”
A major war
Harmful effects
b/w West and Islam
of global warming
Brazil
37%
38%
South Africa
28%
20%
India
31%
37%
France
17%
31%
UK
18%
29%
USA
18%
15%
Japan
9%
36%
Russia
14%
9%
South Korea
22%
44%
Germany
6%
29%
Canada
14%
31%
Source: Ipsos-Reid.com (may 2002)
Play a major role in making the world safer
United States
United Nations
Brazil
India
S. Africa
France
S. Korea
Canada
USA
UK
Japan
Germany
Russia
43%
41%
37%
43%
33%
72%
80%
61%
29%
67%
45%
Source: IPSOS-Reid.com (May 2002)
46%
33%
43%
45%
22%
52%
46%
50%
37%
40%
31%
Themes of Geography 4712 – Fall 2005
1)What will replace the containment strategy? Is there a Bush
Doctrine? Can there be in the post Cold War environment?
2) Are we firmly on the road to the “end of history? Is war
passé?
3) Is globalization irreversible? Are opponents routed and
disunited? Can challenges be successful?
4)What determines a country’s success or laggard status in
the next century?
5)Will democratization trend reach 100%? What kinds of
democracy?
6) Will there be a ‘clash of civilizations’, a continuation of
balance of power (West versus rest?), or shifting criss-cross
alliances, depending on circumstances?
7) Will the West stay together? Will Europe and US drift
apart? Will the “Hobbsians” get fed up with the “Kantians”?
8) Will an “Alliance for Democracy” form that will expand
NATO’s reach, aims and goals? e.g. as in Afghanistan now
9) Will protection of human rights move ahead of sovereignty
in US and maybe UN policy? Will there be another Kosovolike war?
10) Will states continue to form as a result of national
liberation struggles? Will post-nationalist identities appear?
Will pseudo-states keep forming?