What factors are involved in population
growth?
II. Population Parameters and Processes
A. Important Demographic Statistics
1. Total Fertility Rate
a. At least a rate of 2.1 births is needed to replace
population – WHY ?
b. The more developed a region the less fertility
rates will be
c. The more education a women receives the
lower fertility rates will be.
d. Religious and cultural issues also can play a
role.
Secondary school enrollement (Ratio of students enrolled in secondary
school to secondary school-age population)
120
100
Percentage
Based on
the graphs
predict the
total
fertility
rate
80
Boys
Girls
60
40
20
0
World
-- rank the
regions
from
highest to
lowest.
Latin
America &
the
Caribbean
Africa
Asia
More
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
Region
Adult Literacy (percentage of men and women who arel literate, age
15+)
100
90
80
Percent
70
60
Men
50
Women
40
30
20
10
0
World
Latin America
& the
Caribbean
Africa
Asia
Less
Developed
Countries
Age at first marriage and teenage childbearing
80
73
70
Percent
60
50
Percentage of Women 20-24
who were married before age 18
40
Percentage of women 15-19
giving birth each year
31
30
24
20
15
11
10
9
10
5
0
United
States
Brazil
Zimbabwe
Bangladesh
What countries (3) have the highest female
literacy? TFR?
2. Infant Mortality Rates
Lowest Infant Mortality Rate
(deaths per 1,000 births): 2004
Highest Infant Mortality Rate
(deaths per 1,000 births): 2004
1.
Singapore
2.28
208
Angola
192.5
2.
Sweden
2.77
207
Afghanistan
165.96
3.
Japan
3.28
206
Sierra Leone
145.24
4.
Iceland
3.31
205
Mozambique
137.08
5.
Finland
3.59
204
Liberia
130.51
6.
Norway
3.73
203
Niger
122.66
7.
Malta
3.94
202
Somalia
118.52
8.
Czech Republic
3.97
201
Mali
117.99
9
Andorra
4.05
200
Tajikistan
112.10
10
Germany
4.20
199
Guinea-Bissau
108.72
36
United States
6.5
What regions have the highest and lowest Infant Mortality?
3. Life Expectancy
a. Major factors that affect L.E. are violence, poor
health care, epidemic disease, and famine.
b. 1950s, only five countries in the world had a life
expectancy over 70 years --- Today some 60 countries
outside of North America and Europe have life
expectancy over 70 (none in Sub-Saharan Africa)
What regions have the highest and lowest Life c. AIDS – 36
Expectancy
million HIV
positive and 95%
of them live in
developing
nations
4. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
5. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
6. Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
a. Negative = more deaths than births
b. Positive = more births than deaths
c. Some Regions are showing negative growth - Europe
for example
What
regions have
the highest
and lowest
Natural
Increase
Rate
d. Factors that affect natural increase
1) Economic development – Higher economic
development = lower NIR
2) Education affects – Higher education = lower NIR
3) Gender empowerment – Countries w/ women who
have more economic and political access, power, and
education = lower NIR
4) Health care – better health, lower infant mortality =
higher NIR --- but --- better health care also means
more access to contraception = lower NIR
5) Cultural traditions – cultures can encourage high
birth rates or limit opportunities outside the home, by
elevating mother hood to a high position or
discouraging the use of birth control = higher NIR
6) Public Policy - Example: China's one child
policy creates economic incentives and legal
penalties related to the number of children born
– In Japan births encouraged
B. Demographic Accounting Equation - formula used to
predict how population will grow.
1. Start with population now and then, subtract the
number of deaths, add immigration, and subtract
emigration.
2. Because of all the potential factors that can affect
population growth and variables can change over time
making it harder to predict growth
3. Example of Population Projection
P (t + 1) = P (t)
+ B (t, t + 1) - D (t, t + 1) (Natural Change)
+ I (t, t + 1) - E (t, t + 1) (Net Migration)
Where
P = population
B = births
D = deaths
I = immigration
E = emigration
t = time now
t + 1 = some time in the future