Syllabus for Energy Course: Powering the Economy in an Era of Climate Change There are few issues more critical, yet less well managed, than energy issues. The health of the U.S. economy depends on reliable and reasonably priced energy, yet our reliance on oil has been anything but a formula for reliability or stability. Moreover, our dependence on fossil fuels of all sorts has meant vast emissions of greenhouse gases that are contributing to costly climate change. This course, taught by The Washington Post’s energy correspondent, will look at the supply and demand balance for oil; how U.S. transportation policy has fed the U.S. “addiction” to oil; the mix of nuclear, gas and coal used by utilities; and how renewable energy sources might play a larger role in the future. We will touch on some of the international and domestic politics of energy, from the OPEC cartel to the debate over whether to build the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. In the end, students should be able to think about how they would balance issues of cost, security, and climate in fashioning a sensible, and doable, energy policy for the United States. The course will be structured loosely on specific case studies or controversial issues. Readings – most of them newspaper or magazine articles, speeches or position papers – will be tailored to give different sides of these issues or cases, incorporating elements of history, economics and politics. Where you see many items under “readings,” they are usually short. The course will take advantage of being in Washington by including some guest speakers who are in the thick of energy legislation, lobbying, litigating and investing. This syllabus is subject to some degree of change as we take advantage of topics in the news or the availability of guests. We might also consolidate two of the oil sections to make more room for renewables and climate issues. Requirements: Students will be expected to participate in class, take and defend positions, and play roles in hypothetical situations. There will be three short papers, about four to five pages each. Participation will count for a significant portion of the grade and each paper will count equally for the remaining portion of the grade. Required reading: “The Quest” by Daniel Yergin (Penguin paperback) Keystone XL; Down the Line by Steven Mufson (eBook/TED Books) Recommended reading: “The End of Energy” by Michael J. Graetz 1. Introduction: We’ll lay the groundwork with an overview of the sources and uses of different kinds of energy. We will also discuss the early days of the U.S. oil industry and the emergence of giant oil companies and trusts; the development of U.S. auto industry and highway system, and early federal policies ranging from depletion allowances to import taxes. Issues: Is Big Oil necessarily Bad Oil? Should oil companies continue to receive tax breaks? How might the nation’s energy infrastructure be changed? Readings: “The Quest” Chap. 11: Is the World Running Out of Oil? – pp 229-243 See: Energy Information Administration pages on Energy Explained: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ Supplemental reading packet will contain: Brief excerpts from Ida Tarbell’s “History of Standard Oil Company” Recommended but optional: “The Prize” by Daniel Yergin pp 541-558 on “hydrocarbon man.” (((http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/pds/gilded/power/text1/octopusimages. pdf )) 2. The 1973 Oil Embargo and the Era of Price Shocks: Everything changed with this first oil price shock and the sharp increase in oil prices. We’ll look at the changes in U.S. supply and demand that made this shock possible; the politics of the Middle East and OPEC; the inelasticity of oil demand and vulnerability to supply changes at the margin of the market. We will also look at subsequent price shocks – in 1979 and 2008 – and discuss similarities and differences. Issue: Is there a peak for oil production? Has it already happened? Readings: Yergin “The Quest” – Chapter 13 – The Security of Energy “The Economics of an Integrated World Oil Market” Keynote Address at International Energy Workshop June 17-19, 2009 by Yale professor William Nordhaus (key points highlighted in bold face) (in supplemental reading packet) OPEC secretary general on 50th anniversary of group: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/2038.htm WashPost articles on whether to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/03/07/AR2011030705078.html Recommended but optional: “The Prize” by Daniel Yergin pp 588-632. “The End of Energy” by Michael Graetz pp 137-154. 3. The New Oil Shock: In 2008, just a decade after The Economist ran a cover story about the seemingly endless oil glut, prices spiked again. We will discuss speculation, supply and demand, OPEC’s role, China and the “demand shock” theory, the debate over whether to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the national security issue. And also a look at the rebound in oil prices in 2010-11. Readings: Yergin “The Quest” Chap. 8 The Demand Shock pp 161-189 “Oil Shock” series from The Washington Post “Why is oil at $86 a barrel today?” from Securing America’s Future Energy group: http://www.secureenergy.org/sites/default/files/SAFE_Intelligence_Report_3-6-2010.04.14.pdf “Global Oil-Supply Worries Fuel Debate in Saudi Arabia; Former Officials at Odds Over 'Peak' Theory; Crude Hits High” by Neil King in The Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121451556299908501.html Optional: The peak oil debate: Matt Simmons presentation on “Peak Oil: Is It Real? When Might It Occur?” http://www.oceanenergy.org/matthew_simmons_papers/2008/Kayne%20Anderso n%20Energy%20Funds.pdf OR: Matt Simmons presentation titled “Twilight in the Desert.” http://www.oceanenergy.org/matthew_simmons_papers/2008/Minnesota%20S tate%20of%20Representatives.pdf 4. Oil and national security: From Roosevelt to Bush, the U.S. has moved to secure its supplies of oil. Readings: “A Crude Case for War” by Mufson in Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/03/14/AR2008031403677.html Yergin “The Quest” – Chap. 14 pp 285-311 “Oil Shockwave” – a role-playing exercise from 2007. http://www.secureenergy.org/sites/default/files/747_Oil_Shockwave_Report_2 007.pdf In-class exercise: Students will be assigned roles to play in hypothetical national crisis. Optional: Yergin “The Prize”: 368-408; 5. Oil Frontiers: a) Big Oil Treads Through the Ecuador Jungle: Chevron and lawyers representing indigenous people from Ecuador’s Amazon have been fighting for 20 years. Readings: “Jungle Law” by William Langewiesche in May 2007 issue of Vanity Fair http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/05/texaco200705 “Amazon Crusader. Chevron Pest. Fraud?” by Paul M. Barrett in Business Week March 9, 2011 http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_12/b4220056636512.htm “Crude” a documentary Excerpts from Chevron Web site. Optional: “Overexposed” by Michael D. Goldhaber in The American Lawyer: http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2011/05/litigationspring2011donziger.htm l b) The Keystone XL Pipeline Debate Mufson, Keystone XL; Down the Line (eBook, TED Books) 6. Fukushima and the stillborn nuclear renaissance: It took years for the nuclear power industry to convince most people that it deserved another chance after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Then an earthquake destabilized four reactors at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi complex. We will look at three issues: the cost of nuclear power, waste disposal, and safety after Fukushima Readings: “Nuclear Power Primed for a Comeback” by Mufson in Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/10/07/AR2007100701324.html “Nuclear projects face financial obstacles,” by Mufson in Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/03/01/AR2010030103975.html Executive summary of report by the Keystone Center: http://keystone.org/files/file/SPP/energy/NJFF-Exec-Summ-6_2007.pdf Allison Macfarlane testimony in 2006 on Yucca Mountain: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/epw.testimony.long.march12006.pdf Victor Gilinsky on near accident at Ohio nuclear plant: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wpdyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A57994-2002Apr27&notFound=true Peter Bradford opposes loan guarantees: http://www.thegwpf.org/energynews/1930-peter-bradford-nuclear-powers-search-for-the-taxpayers-wallet.html Sen. Alexander supports them: http://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_new s/archive/2010/06/16/senator-lamar-alexander-nuclear-power-is-the-mostreliable-and-useful-source-of-green-electricity-today-06162.aspx OR: http://www.aei.org/docLib/blueprint.pdf 7. Solutions? a) The Shale Gas Revolution: In recent years, technology advances have made it possible to tap vast natural gas reserves all over the United States. What effect has this had on the economics of other energy sources, such as coal and nuclear? What are the environmental hazards? If those are real, what sort of tradeoff should be made between those and coal? Readings: A report by the Secure America’s Future Energy group: http://www.secureenergy.org/sites/default/files/1163_SAFEIntelligenceReport3920100 701.pdf Various New York Times and Washington Post articles on hydro-fracking and shale gas. Short video from Chesapeake Energy and the company’s fact sheet on drilling in Pennsylvania: http://www.chk.com/media/marcellusmediakits/marcellus_hydraulic_fracturing _fact_sheet.pdf fracking: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/us/02gas.html?_r=1 http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_11/b4219025777026.htm b) The Electric Car: Plug In Car and Tune Out Oil? President Obama once said his goal was to have a million electric cars on the road by 2016. He won’t make it. A look at subsidies he gave out, a comparison of GM’s strategy and Tesla’s, and a look at the link between the grid and greenhouse gas savings. Readings: Obama policy statement Web sites for the new GM and Tesla vehicles. Project Better Place’s plan for swapping batteries – Business Week article about Shai Agassi and a Washington Post interview http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120503169.html?tid=informbox Congressional Budget Office report: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43576 (be sure to click on pdf and read report and not just the summary) Union of Concerned Scientists report on greenhouse gas savings for electric vehicles. http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/smart-transportationsolutions/advanced-vehicle-technologies/electric-cars/emissions-and-chargingcosts-electric-cars.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/24/david-sandalow-electricc_n_692320.html http://www.hybridcars.com/plug-in-hybrids/battery-expert-doubt-plugin.html http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/0225_cafe_nivola/02 25_cafe_nivola.pdf New 2011 Obama standards: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/news/fuel-economy/obamas-fueleconomy-rules-why-54-5-mpg-doesnt-really-mean-54-5 8. Renewables: How much help should the government provide? What kind of help? Issues: An overview of tax incentives; Renewable Portfolio Standards at state levels; Interior Department’s conflicting priorites – conservation and renewable energy; the intermittent nature of wind and solar and the challenges of integration with the grid; who should pay for transmission, the developers, customers or taxpayers? Is stimulus seed money from DOE good or bad? The Amory Lovins vision of decentralized power; Readings: Sen. Lamar Alexander on Big Wind. Note section on subsidy costs of Shepherd’s Flats: http://www.masterresource.org/2011/05/big-wind-sen-alexander/ Unusual coalitions clash over wind energy tax credit By Juliet Eilperin http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/unusual-coalitionsclash-over-wind-energy-tax-credit/2012/09/20/fd775f1a-01c7-11e2-b257e1c2b3548a4a_story.html Business Week story about the wind debate http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-07/jobs-blow-away-as-congressfails-to-act-on-wind-energy The case against wind tax credits: http://blog.heritage.org/2012/02/28/wind-subsidies-vs-oil-subsidies/ http://blog.heritage.org/2012/11/20/time-to-remove-the-taxpayer-trough-fromwind-producers/ **White House advisers’ memo on loan guarantee program for renewables: http://media.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/other/Summers_renewable_energ y_memo%5B1%5D.pdf Also, look at the American Wind Energy Association web site. On federal policies: http://www.awea.org/issues/federal_policy/index.cfm fact sheet on production tax credit: http://www.awea.org/issues/federal_policy/upload/PTC-Fact-Sheet.pdf CBO overview: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43040 Articles about the Solyndra debate: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/some-clean-energy-firmsfound-us-loan-guarantee-program-a-badbet/2011/09/13/gIQA9n5J0K_story.html Federal government’s track record on energy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/before-solyndra-a-long-history-offailed-government-energy-projects/2011/10/25/gIQA1xG0CN_story.html 5 Myths about Solyndra scandal http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/five-myths-about-thesolyndra-collapse/2011/09/14/gIQAfkyvRK_blog.html Solar: The Chinese are coming? http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/chinas-growing-share-ofsolar-market-comes-at-a-price/2011/11/21/gIQAhPRWyO_story.html 9. Coal: Mining can be dangerous, it’s bad for the global climate, and it’s tearing down the Appalachian mountains. But we still use coal to supply more than a third of our electricity. Why? And can we turn coal into “clean coal”? Readings: AEP Web site on its carbon capture and storage project at its Mountaineer plant: http://www.aep.com/environmental/climatechange/carboncapture/ Michael Shnayerson “The Rape of Appalachia” in Vanity Fair May 2006: http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2006/05/appalachia200605 “Clean Coal? Don’t Try to Shovel That” by Jeff Biggers in Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/02/29/AR2008022903390.html Various newspaper articles. National Mining Association: Video about Black Thunder Mine in Powder River Basin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LQwxTm94Ps Speech by head of NMA: http://www.nma.org/pdf/speeches/011712_usea_hal.pdf One page items from NMA: http://www.nma.org/042811_landing1.asp http://www.nma.org/042811_landing3.asp http://www.nma.org/042811_landing2.asp http://www.nma.org/modern/5_ws.asp http://www.nma.org/pdf/c_bearing_areas.pdf http://www.nma.org/pdf/c_most_requested.pdf http://www.nma.org/pdf/c_production_mines_state_type.pdf http://blog.cleveland.com/letters/2012/06/ohioans_electric_bills_will_su.html The Sierra Club view: http://www.beyondcoal.org/dirtytruth/carbon http://www.sierraclub.org/scp/coalcountry.aspx http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/beyond-coal-plantactivism?page=2 The late Sen. Robert Byrd started to see things differently late in life http://www.wvmetronews.com/index.cfm?func=displayfullstory&storyid=33928 The rising cost of mining coal http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/cost-of-mining-coalcontinues-to-climb/2012/10/24/d15666ca-1931-11e2-bd105ff056538b7c_story.html 10. How to fashion an energy policy: We talk about cap and trade and carbon taxes, subsidies and incentives. President Obama’s speech at Georgetown University: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/30/remarks-presidentamericas-energy-security The Republican view: Video of Sen. Alexander speech at the American Enterprise Institute on energy policy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0VwPwUNyAk Princeton Prof. Robert Sokolov’s paper about “wedges” needed to slow climate change. original paper: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5686/968.full?ijkey=Y58LIjdWj MPsw&keytype=ref&siteid=sci update: http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/wedges-reaffirmed more on Princeton site: http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/ nice graphic: http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/10/carboncrisis/img/stabilization_wedges.pdf Optional: Exxon forecast of long-term energy trends. Note section on emissions: http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_eo2012.pdf Optional reading: The Post’s article from the day the bill passed the House: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/06/26/AR2009062600444.html A simple explanation of the bill: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/25/the-climate-billexplaine_n_221233.html Optional: The official summary of the bill: http://www.c2es.org/federal/congress/111/acesa-short-summary Optional: WRI tries to simplify the explanation: http://www.wri.org/stories/2009/04/brief-summary-waxman-markeydiscussion-draft