UNMET NEED FOR SEATS IN NEW 2015-2019
CAPITAL PLAN
INCLUDING CLASS SIZE AND OVERCROWDING DATA
FOR COMMUNITY SCHOOL DISTRICT 28
Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters
July 2014
School Utilization Rates at critical levels
• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years. More than 480,000
students citywide are in extremely overcrowded buildings.
• Elementary schools avg. building utilization “target” rates at 97.4%; median at 102%. High
schools are not far behind at 95.2%.
• High ES rates in all boroughs, including D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and 105.6%,
respectively.
• In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30 (107.3%) all
extremely overcrowded.
• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building utilization rates
over 95%.
• Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten Island high
school buildings 103.2%.
Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013
Average Utilization Rates City-Wide 2012-2013
100%
97.4%
95.2%
95%
90%
*Calculated
by dividing
building
enrollment by
the target
capacity
85%
80.9%
80%
75%
70%
Elementary Schools
Middle Schools
Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book
High Schools
Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats
• Proposed capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats – and this if
Cuomo’s “Smart School” bond act is approved. (806 more seats
funded only for design)
• Plan admits real need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain how this
figure was derived).
• DOE’s consultants project enrollment increases of 60,000-70,000
students by 2021
• At least 30,000 seats needed to alleviate current overcrowding for just
those districts that average above 100%.
• Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.
Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II
• These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level,
including schools with K waiting lists, or need to expand pre-K, reduce
class size, restore cluster rooms, or provide space for charters as
required in new state law.
• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of more than
10,890 seats.
• Though DOE counts only 7,158 students attending class in TCUs,
actual number is far higher & likely over 10,000.
• Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding
according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a “Blue
Book” taskforce to improve them.
• Revised utilization formula should be aligned to smaller classes,
dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.
Class sizes have increased for six years
in a row
• Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC reduce class sizes, classes in K-3 in
2013-2014 largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002.
• K-3 average class size was 24.9 (Gen Ed, inclusion & gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in
2007, increase of 19%.
• In grades 4-8, the average class size was 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 –increase of 6.8%.
• HS “core” academic classes, class size average 26.7, up slightly since 2007. (Yet DOE’s
measure of HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes, so estimates
cannot be relied upon.)
• Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 330,000 students were in classes of 30
or more in 2013-2014.
• There were 40,268 kids in K-3 in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014 – an increase of nearly
14% compared to the year before.
• The number of teachers decreased by over 5000 between 2007-2010, according to the
Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.
K-3 Class sizes are the largest since 1998
General ed, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013
24.90
24.86
24.46
23.89
23.25
22.90
22.38
22.10
22.10
21.6821.55
21.40
21.2821.12
21.0020.90
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
4th – 8th grade Class sizes largest since 2002
Gened, CTT and gifted: data from IBO 1998-2005; DOE 2006-2013
28.1
27.5
27.2
27.4
27.0
26.8
26.6 26.7
26.7
26.4
26.3
25.9
25.8
25.6
25.3
25.1
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Total no. of teachers dropped by 5,000
since 2007-8
data source: Mayor's Management Report
79,109
79,021
76,795
74,958
73,844
72,787
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY 13
Class sizes in CSD 28 have increased in grades K-3
by 21.4% since 2006, far above Contracts for Excellence goals
27
26.1
26.1
26
25
25
24.86
24.5
Students per section
24
23.8
23
22.8
22.3
22
21
21.5
21.6
21
20.9
20.7
23.9
C4E goals
22.9
Citywide actual
22.1
D28
21.4
20.5
20.3
20
20.1
19.9
19.9
19.9
19
18
Baseline
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
CSD 28’s class sizes in grades 4-8 have increased
by 12.6% since 2007 far above Contracts for Excellence goals
29
28.6
27.8
28
27.6
27.3
27
26.9
26.6
26.5
26.8
26.7
26.3
26
25.4
25.6
25.8
C4E target
25.4
Citywide actual
25.3
25.1
25
24.8
D28
24.6
24
23.8
23.3
23
22.9
22.9
22.9
22
Baseline
2007-8
2008-9
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
Class sizes city-wide have increased in core HS classes as
well, by 2.3% since 2007, though the DOE data is unreliable*
27
26.7
26.6
26.5
26.5
26.4
26.3
26.2
26
26.1
26
25.7
C4E Target
25.5
Citywide Actual
25.2
25
24.8
24.5
24.5
24.5
24.5
24
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
*DOE’s class size data is unreliable &
their methodology for calculating HS averages have changed year to year
Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan
CSD 28 Schools with large class sizes
• At the Kindergarten level, there are 12 schools in District 28 with with
an average class size of 25 or more, according to DOE’s November
2013 report.
• In grades 1-3, there are 13 schools in District 28 with at least one
grade level averaging 30 students per class or more.
• PS Q086, PS 144, PS 175, and PS 354 has at least three grade
levels in K-3 with 30 or more students.
• In grades 4-8, 24 schools have at least one grade level with an
average class size of 30 or more.
• JHS 157 and York Early College Academy have at least three grade
levels with 30 or more students at the 4-8 level.
Examples of schools in CS D28 with large
class sizes, K-3
D28 Kindergarten
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
24
D28 1st Grade
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
29
32
32
PS 354
P.S. 175 THE
LYNN GROSS
DISCOVERY
SCHOOL
30
30
P.S. Q086
P.S. 144 COL
JEROMUS
REMSEN
D28 3rd Grade
D28 2nd Grade
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
29
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
29
29
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
School Utilization Rates at critical levels
• Citywide, elementary schools avg. building utilization rates are at 97.4%; the
median utilization rate is at 102%, high schools are not far behind at 95.2%.
• In eleven districts, elementary school average above 100%; 20 districts average
above 90%.
• High schools in Queens (110.7%) and Staten Island (103.2%) average above
100%.
• At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building
utilization rates over 95%.
• There are more than 30,000 seats just to bring those districts to 100% utilization.
Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013
# of Seats currently needed to bring
buildings to 100% or less
# of Seats Needed in all districts with
building utilization rates higher than
100% at HS level
# of Seats Needed in all districts
with ES building utilization rates
higher than 100%
8,000
7,295
6,000
7,000
5,318
5,000
6,000
3,912
4,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,279
2,000
1,929
1,822
1,637
1,237
1,451 1,476
3,000
2,000
1,231
1,000
1,000
518
189
0
0
D10
D11
D15
D20
D22
D24
D25
D26
D27
D30
D31
QUEENS HS
*These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in
the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book
Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book
STATEN ISLAND HS
Average Utilization Rates in CSD 28 compared to City-Wide 2012-2013
D28 ES building utilization rate at 98%, above citywide average
120%
110.7%
100%
98%
96.8%
94.8%
84.5%
80.9%
80%
*Calculated
by dividing
building
enrollment by
the target
capacity
60%
40%
20%
0%
District 28 Elementary City-Wide Elementary
Schools
Schools
District 28 Middle
Schools
City-Wide Middle
Schools
Queens High Schools
City-Wide High
Schools
Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book
7,295 HS Seats in Queens needed to reach 100% building utilization
Over-utilized ES and MS buildings in CSD
28 and Queens HS
• There are 25 buildings in CSD 28 that are 100% utilization
or higher. The seat need is over 1,600 students.
• At 26 over-utilized Queens HS buildings, there is a seat
need for more than 13,000 students.
• Please note that the seat need here is higher because it
takes into account all buildings that are over-utilized
(100% or more) rather than the need averaged across the
district.
25 CSD 28 ES and MS buildings are over-utilized
200% 188%
184%
180%
160%
140%
120%
133% 132% 130% 129%
127% 125% 125% 123%
122% 122% 118%
115% 113%
109% 106%
104% 103% 102% 102% 102% 102% 102% 100%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
*1,555 ES and 125 MS seats needed to reach 100% building utilization
26 Queens High School Buildings are over-utilized
200% 190%
180%
160%
140%
120%
175%
156% 154%
152% 150%
148%
144%
135% 134% 133%
130% 127%
126% 124%
121% 120% 119% 118%
117% 116% 116%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
*13,331 HS seats needed to reach 100% building utilization
110% 108% 108%
106%
102% 101%
Big gap between New Seats in Capital Plan and DOE Enrollment
Projections for District 28
3,000
2,411
2,500
2,163
2,000
1,500
1,000
870
640
500
0
ES and MS New Seats from Capital Enrollment Projections, Statistical
Plan FY 2015-2019
Forecasting 2011-2021
Enrollment Projections, Grier
Partnership 2011-2021
Housing Starts, Estimated Growth
2012-2021
~3,033 to 3,281 new students by 2021 according to enrollment projections but only 640 seats are being added.
2014 Kindergarten Wait Lists in CSD 28
• According to DOE, the wait list for zoned Kindergarten spots in 2014 is smaller
citywide than in 2013, with 1,242 zoned students on wait lists as of April 21, 2014.
• 19 of 32 school districts currently have at least one school with a waiting list.
• 63 schools have zoned wait lists: 20 in Brooklyn, 17 in Queens, 11 in Manhattan,
11 in The Bronx, and 4 in Staten Island.
• DOE less transparent than ever: the number of zoned students for particular
schools if less than 10 is not revealed – and methodology for creating wait lists
unexplained.
• Over 7,000 families got none of their choices but unclear how many were put on
wait list for their zoned school.
• There was one school in District 28 with waiting lists: PS 175 The Lynn Gross
Discovery School (1-9 students).
Number of students in CSD 28 trailers
• In CSD 28, according to the 2012-2013 TCU Report, there
are at least 241 elementary and middle school students in
23 TCUs at eight schools: PS 30, PS 40, PS 55, PS 121,
PS 140, 160, PS 174, PS 206.
Number of students in Queens HS trailers
• At the high school level, there are at least 38 TCUs at
eight Queens high schools: John Adams, Bayside,
Cardozo, Richmond Hill, William Bryant, John Bowne,
Francis Lewis, and Jamaica Learning Center.
• All but John Adams HS did not have enrollment figures
listed in the report and are not counted in DOE stats on
students attending class in trailers.
• There are 68 classrooms in these 38 TCUs and the total
capacity is 1,984 across the 8 HS. None of these
students are included in the 7,158 total that DOE reports
attend classes in TCUs.
New seats need for CSD 28
• Capital Plan allocates just 640 seats for FY 2015-2019 for CSD 28.
• To reduce overcrowding, and bring building utilization to 100% at the
elementary school and middle school levels, 1,680 seats are needed.
• If the DOE’s enrollment projections are accurate, at least 3,000 seats
are needed in the district to meet the enrollment projections for the
next decade (2011-2021).
• To remove elementary and middle school students from trailers,
another 241 seats are needed to eliminate the need for trailers in
elementary and middle schools across CSD 28.
• Therefore, at least 4,900 elementary and middle school seats are
needed beyond what the FY 2015-2019 Capital Plan has for CSD 28.
Unmet need critical in Queens high
schools
• More than 7,200 seats in Queens HS are needed to reduce
present overcrowding and bring building utilization to 100%.
• These figures underestimate actual level of overcrowding,
according to most principals.
• About 2,000 seats are needed to remove Queens high school
students from schools with trailers (from capacity figures).
• DOE consultants project an increase in Queens high school
enrollment of 12,567- 12,980 by 2021.
• Yet only 2,802 Queens HS seats proposed in five-year plan, a
shortage of more than 17,000 seats.
New charter provisions passed in state budget
• Any charter co-located in a NYC school building cannot be evicted and has veto
powers before they leave the building – even if they are expanding and squeezing out
NYC public school students.
• This includes any charter co-location agreed to before 2014 – including the three
Success charter schools approved right before Bloomberg left office.
• Any new or charter school in NYC adding grade levels must be “provided access to
facilities” w/in five months of asking for it.
• If they don’t like the space offered by the city, they can appeal to the Commissioner
King, who is a former charter school director and has never ruled against a charter
school.
• .
• NO FISCAL IMPACT statement or analysis accompanying this bill.
• In addition, the state will provide all charter schools with per-pupil funding increases,
amounting to $500 over the next 3 years and provide them funding for pre-K.
Charter space provisions ONLY apply to
NYC
• Upstate legislators fought off making charters eligible for state facilities funds
– which would have been better for NYC.
• Yet legislators did not block these onerous provisions for NYC , where we
have the most expensive real estate & the most overcrowded schools in the
state.
• If the DOE doesn’t offer charter schools free space, the city must pay for a
school’s rent in private space or give them an extra 20 percent over their
operating aid every year going forward.
• After the city spends $40 million per year on charter rent, the state will begin
chipping in 60% of additional cost.
How many charters will there be entitled
to free space?
• We have 183 charters in NYC, 119 in co-located space.
• 22 new charters are approved to open next year or the year after, all entitled to free
space.
• 52 additional charter schools left to approve until we reach the cap raised in 2010 –
with legislative approval – all entitled to free space.
• Any new or existing co-located charter can also be authorized to expand grade levels
through HS and will be entitled to free space.
• DOE will be paying $5.4 M in annual rent for four years for 3 Success Academy
schools that only have 484 students next year – at a cost of $11,000 per student.
• This doesn’t count the unknown renovation costs in these 3 schools, also paid for by
the city.
Blue book data & Utilization formula inaccurate &
underestimates actual level of overcrowding
• Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in
city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards
• Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to
have dedicated spaces for their mandated services
• Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary
and middle schools.
• Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of total space and
eat up classrooms with replicated administrative & cluster rooms. Small
schools use space less efficiently
• Instructional footprint shrank full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., risking
building code/safety violations at many schools as 20-35 sq feet per student
required.
• Special ed classrooms defined as only 240-499 sq ft, thought State Ed
guidelines call for 75 sq ft per child with special needs; classrooms this small
would allow only 3- 7 students.
Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to
current averages & Contract for excellence goals
Grade levels
UFT Contract
class size limits
Target class
sizes in "blue
book"
Current average
class sizes
How many sq ft per student
C4E class Size
required in classrooms
goals
according to NYC building
code
Kindergarten
25
20
23
19.9
35
1st-3rd
4th-5th
32
32
20
28
25.5
26
19.9
22.9
20
20
28
27.4
22.9
20
30
26.7*
24.5
20
30 (Title I)
6th-8th
33 (non-Title I)
HS (core
classes)
34
*DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable
Some Recommendations
• 38,000 seats in capital plan is too low, esp. given existing overcrowding,
projected enrollment, preK expansion, class size reduction, new
mandates to provide charter schools with space
• Also very low as compared to Mayor’s plan to create or preserve 200,000
affordable housing units.
• Council should expand the seats in five year capital plan.
• Commission an independent analysis by City Comptroller, IBO or other
agency.
• Adopt reforms to planning process so that schools are built along with
housing in future through mandatory inclusionary zoning, impact fees etc.
• Over half of all states and 60% of large cities have impact fees, requiring
developers to pay for costs of infrastructure improvements, including
schools.