Economics Chapter 8 International trade International trade Trade: Exchange of goods and services International trade: Exchange of goods and services between countries or regions. Example 1. USA and China USA sells computer to China China sells garment to USA 2. HK and other regions exports electronics goods Imports rice and cars International trade Terms of trade: International price The quantity of imported goods that can be exchanged for one unit of exported goods. Terms of trade = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 Terms of trade index = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑥 100 International trade Terms of trade: Given that: Country A exports rice ($10 per unit) to Country B. Country A imports garments ($5 per unit) from Country B. Terms of trade = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = $10 $5 =2 Meaning that for Country A, sales of 1 unit of rice can be used to buy 2 units of garments Note that form Country B, terms of trade is the reciprocal of 1 that fro Country A, i.e. 2 International trade Assume trading among 2 countries only, calculate terms of trade in the following cases 1. A exports watches ($180 each) to B B exports T-shirts ($60 each) to A (i.e. A imports) Terms of trade for A = 2. =3 C exports seafood ($135 each) to D D exports camera ($1080 each) to C Terms of trade for C = 3. $180 $60 $135 $1080 = 1 = 8 0.125 E exports TV ($1500 each) to F F exports furniture ($1500 each) to E Terms of trade for E = $1500 $1500 =1 Mutual benefits Why trading? If exports / imports HK USA Trade? Loss Loss Loss Gain Gain Loss Gain Gain Mutual benefits Free trade benefits both buyers and sellers. Exporting country will gain from Px > Production cost, PX > PL Importing country will gain from PM < Production cost, PM < PL Absolute advantage Definition Adam Smith If a country can produce more Good X than other countries by using the same amount of resources, then this country has an absolute advantage in producing Good X. Given the same input of resources: Production of Good X China USA 1,000 units 300 units China has an absolute advantage in producing Good X Conversely, USA has an absolute disadvantage. Absolute advantage Comparison of same goods among countries. Determined by productivity. Technologically advanced higher productivity in all good absolute advantage Conversely, low level technology low productivity absolute disadvantage Absolute advantage Each unit of resources can produce: Good X (units) Good Y (units) Country A 85 or 25 Country B 120 or 40 Yes a. Country B must have more resources. b. Country B is more technologically advanced. c. Country B must have a higher total output than Country A. d. Country B has an absolute advantage in the production of both goods. e. Country B has an absolute advantage in producing Good X since each unit of resources can produce more X than Y. No ∵ Compare the same goods among countries Case study: Absolute advantage Suppose Japan and USA both have 2,000 units of resources. They use half of their resource (1,000 units) to produce food and clothes on their own. Total resources (units) Total production of food (units) USA 2,000 5,000 and 6,000 Japan 2,000 4,000 and 8,000 Total output - 9,000 and 14,000 Total production of clothes (units) Case study: Absolute advantage Each unit of resources can produce: Food (units) Clothes (units) USA 5 or 6 Japan 4 or 8 For each unit of resources USA produce more food than Japan USA has absolute advantage on food Japan has absolute disadvantage on food Japan produce more clothes than USA Japan has absolute advantage on clothes USA has absolute disadvantage on clothes Case study: Absolute advantage Suppose Japan and USA specialize on producing goods with absolute advantages, i.e. USA uses all the resources to produce food. Japan uses all the resources to produce clothes. Total resources (units) Total production of food (units) USA 2,000 10,000 and 0 Japan 2,000 0 and 16,000 Total output - 10,000 and 16,000 Total output of food and clothes Total production of clothes (units) Case study: Absolute advantage Suppose USA exchanges 4,500 units of food for 7,000 units of clothes with Japan. After international trade: Total resources (units) Total production of food (units) Total production of clothes (units) USA 2,000 5,500 and 7,000 Japan 2,000 4,500 and 9,000 Total output - 10,000 and 16,000 Compare with the output before trade: Total resources (units) Total production of food (units) Total production of clothes (units) USA 2,000 5,000 and 6,000 Japan 2,000 4,000 and 8,000 Total output - 9,000 and 14,000 Case study: Absolute advantage Assume that Free trade No transaction cost Through international trade USA gains 500 units of food 1,000 units of clothes Total output Japan gains 500 units of food 1,000 units of clothes 1,000 units of food 2,000 units of clothes Conclusion Specialize in production of goods with absolute advantage Through international trade Mutual benefits Comparative advantage Definition David Ricardo A country can produce Good X at a lower opportunity cost than other countries. Limitation of the principle of absolute advantage A technologically advanced country Absolute advantage in all goods Why import??? E.g. Japan has high level of technology Absolute advantage in all goods, but still imports from other countries Comparative advantage Each unit of resources can produce: Good X (units) Good Y (units) Country A 50 or 25 Country B 10 or 2 Country A has absolute advantage in both Good X and Y. Comparative advantage With same unit of resources Looking at the opportunity cost in Country A: To produce 50 units of Good X give up producing 25 units of Good Y 25 Opportunity cost of producing 1X = Y = 0.5Y 50 To produce 25 units of Good Y give up producing 50 units of Good X 50 Opportunity cost of producing 1Y = X = 2X 25 Comparative advantage Convert the table to show the opportunity cost: Good X (units) Good Y (units) Country A 50 or 25 Country B 10 or 2 Good X Good Y Country A 25 50 Y = 0.5Y or 50 25 X = 2X Country B 2 10 Y = 0.2Y or 10 2 X = 5X Table 8.2: Unit costs of producing Good X and Y in Country A and B. Comparative advantage Good X Good Y Country A 0.5Y or 2X Country B 0.2Y or 5X Table 8.2: Unit costs of producing Good X and Y in Country A and B. Country A has a lower opportunity cost in producing Good Y. Country A has comparative advantage in Good Y. Country B has lower opportunity cost in producing Good X. Country B has comparative advantage in Good X. No country can have a comparative advantage in all goods. Low opportunity cost in Good X High opportunity cost in Good Y Comparative advantage Textbook p.36 Each unit of resources can produce: Good X (units) Good Y (units) Country A 6,000 or 7,200 Country B 4,000 or 6,000 Good X Good Y Country A 7200 6000 Y = 1.2Y or 6000 7200 X = 0.83X Country B 6000 4000 Y = 1.5Y or 4000 6000 X = 0.67X Table 8.2: Unit costs of producing Good X and Y in Country A and B. Comparative advantage Each unit of resources can produce: Good X (units) Good Y (units) Country A 6,000 or 7,200 Country B 4,000 or 6,000 Yes No a. Country A has more resources. b. Country A has an absolute advantage in producing Good X. c. Country A has a comparative advantage in producing Good X. d. Country A has a comparative disadvantage in producing Good X. Country A has a comparative advantage in producing Good X e. since the opportunity cost of producing Good X is lower than that of Good Y. ∵ Compare the same goods among countries Absolute advantage & Comparative advantage Absolute advantage: A country with high productivity (usu. technology) Can be all types of goods Comparative advantage A country with lower costs in producing a certain kind of goods Comparatively a certain kinds of goods only Principle of comparative advantage 1. If a country specializes in and exports goods in which it has a comparative advantage, and 2. imports goods in which it has comparative disadvantage, the world’s total output will increase and both countries will benefit. Principle of comparative advantage Assumptions Only 2 countries, Country A and Country B Only 2 types of goods, Goods X and Goods Y Amount of goods produced by each unit of resources is fixed Barter system (exchange of goods) No transaction cost Comparative advantage Good X Good Y Country A 0.5Y or 2X Country B 0.2Y or 5X Table 8.2: Unit costs of producing Good X and Y in Country A and B. Country A vs. Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. Lower cost A should produce Good Y Lower cost B should produce Good X Principle of comparative advantage Therefore, after specialization: Country A Country B Specialize production in Good Y Good X Exports Good Y Good X Imports Good X Good Y Comparative advantage Country A vs. Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. After specialization (Good X) Effect on Good X Effect on Good Y Country A produces 1 less unit of X - 1X +0.5Y Country B produces 1 more unit of X +1X -0.2Y Total output Unchanged +0.3Y Comparative advantage Country A vs. Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. After specialization (Good Y) Effect on Good X Effect on Good Y Country A produces 1 more unit of Y - 2X +1Y Country B produces 1 less unit of Y +5X -1Y Total output +3X Unchanged Potential gain from trade Potential gain (highest possible gain) Gain before deducting the cost (transaction cost) of trade, such as transportation costs If transaction cost is involved, Actual gain < Potential gain Potential gain from trade After specialization (Good X) Effect on Good X Effect on Good Y Country A produces 1 less unit of X - 1X +0.5Y Country B produces 1 more unit of X +1X -0.2Y Total output Unchanged +0.3Y Cost saved by Country A = 0.5Y Cost paid by Country B = 0.2Y World Total cost saving = 0.3Y Total increase in output = World total cost saving = 0.3Y Potential gain from trade From the example: Countries specialize in producing goods with lower opportunity cost International trade is mutually beneficial to 2 countries Potential gain form trade = Cost difference between 2 countries = 0.3Y Next questions: Which country gains more? Is the gain evenly distributed among 2 countries? Terms of trade determine the distribution of gains Before trade: Country A vs. Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. Suppose the terms of trade: 1X = 0.4Y Country A’s gain from importing 1X Country B’s gain from exporting 1X Domestic cost of 1X 0.5Y Domestic cost of 1X 0.2Y Import price 0.4Y Export price 0.4Y Cost saved 0.1Y Gain 0.2Y Trade. Total gain is shared by Country A (0.1Y) & B (0.2Y) Terms of trade determine the distribution of gains Before trade: Country A vs. Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. Suppose the terms of trade: 1X = 0.3Y Country A’s gain from importing 1X Country B’s gain from exporting 1X Domestic cost of 1X 0.5Y Domestic cost of 1X 0.2Y Import price 0.3Y Export price 0.3Y Cost saved 0.2Y Gain 0.1Y Trade. Total gain is shared by Country A (0.2Y) & B (0.1Y) Terms of trade determine the distribution of gains Before trade: Country A Country B vs. Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Table 8.3: Unit costs of Country A and B. Suppose the terms of trade: 1X = 0.1Y Country A’s gain from importing 1X Country B’s gain from exporting 1X Domestic cost of 1X 0.5Y Domestic cost of 1X 0.2Y Import price 0.1Y Export price 0.1Y Cost saved 0.4Y Loss 0.1Y No trade. Country B will lose if trading. Case study (textbook p.39) Given the domestic costs: Country A: 1Y = 2X and Country B: 1Y = 5X Opportunity cost Country A Country B Produce 1X 0.5Y 0.2Y Produce 1Y 2X 5X Country A exports Good Y, because opportunity cost is lower. Conversely, Country B exports Good X. Term of trade Exports Y A’s gain B’gain 1Y = 1X No trade - - 1Y = 2X Country A 0 3X 1Y = 3X Country A 1X 2X 1Y = 4X Country A 2X 1X 1Y = 5X Country A 3X 0 1Y = 6X No trade - - Mutual benefits Case study (textbook p.39) Conclusion Mutual benefits Cost of importers > Terms of trade > Cost of exporters If term of trade = Cost of importer If term of trade = Cost of exporter Importer’s gain = max. (i.e. potential gain) Exporter’s gain = 0 If term of trade > cost of importer or term of trade < cost of exporter Importer’s gain = 0 Exporter’s gain = max. (i.e. potential gain) No trade Determination of term of trade Depends on the bargaining power of the countries E.g. Bilateral trade negotiations bet. USA and China Conditions for mutually beneficial trade Each party has a comparative advantage Different opportunity costs in producing different goods Mutual beneficial terms of trade Terms of trade lies between domestic costs of both parties Cost of importer > Terms of trade > Cost of exporter Reasonable cost of trade Low transaction cost Transportation Negotiation Trade protection policies Advantages of international trade Social development Exchange of products Native products E.g. teapots, art-crafts Cultural interflow Cultural exchange during communication and negotiation E.g. Western businessmen learn Chinese culture Advantages of international trade Economical aspect Comparative advantage Lower cost Specialization More experience and knowledge Better use of technology Economies of scales Specialization allows increasing scale of production Thus, lower average cost Technological interflow Trade enhance technological interflow Higher productivity Enhancement of competition Higher quality of domestic products Lower cost to produce domestic products with advanced technology The effects of exchange rate on international trade Think about this: A Japanese car costs ¥1,500,000 Assume the exchange rate is HKD1 = JPY10 How much should a HK citizen pay for this car in terms of HKD? HK$ 1 can be converted into JP¥ 10 The car costs HK$1,500,000 / 10 = HK$150,000 If HKD depreciates against JPY, what do you think about the price of the car in terms of HKD? If the exchange rate is now HKD1=JPY9, The car costs HK$1,500,000 / 9 = HK$166,666.67 The same car, but the price . HK people suffer. The effects of exchange rate on international trade Think about this: Assume you have no special preference towards rice from different countries. If HKD depreciates against AUD, and HKD appreciates against THB (Thai Baht). Which one will you choose? Why? Depreciation and exports Suppose garments are exported to Europe. Price of garment made in HK = HK$100 Exchange rate: HK$100 = €11 Export price = €11 P (€) HKD depreciation: Exchange rate: HK$100 = €10 Local price = HK$100 Export price = €10 Price Qd (Law of demand) HK garments 11 10 0 Q1 Q2 That is, quantity demanded of HK garment export increases. Export volume Appreciation and exports Suppose garments are exported to Europe. Price of garment made in HK = HK$100 Exchange rate: HK$100 = €11 Export price = €11 P (€) HKD appreciation: Exchange rate: HK$100 = €12 Local price = HK$100 Export price = $100 = €12 Price Qd (Law of demand) HK garments 12 11 0 Q2 Q1 That is, quantity demanded of HK garment export decreases. Export volume Depreciation and imports Suppose watches are imported from Europe. Price of European watch = €110 P ($) Exchange rate: HK$100 = €11 Import price = HK$1000 HKD depreciation: Exchange rate: HK$100 = €10 European watches 1100 1000 Import price = $110 x (100/10) = HK$1100 Price Qd (Law of demand) 0 Q2 Q1 Import volume That is, quantity demanded of European watches import decreases. Appreciation and imports Suppose watches are imported from Europe. Price of European watch = €110 P ($) Exchange rate: HK$100 = €11 Import price = HK$1000 European watches 1000 HKD appreciation: Exchange rate: HK$100 = €12 916.7 Import price = $110 x (100/12) = HK$916.7 0 Price Qd (Law of demand) Q1 Q2 Import volume That is, quantity demanded of European watches import increases. The effects of exchange rate on international trade Summary Exports Imports Price Qd Price Qd Depreciation Appreciation Case study in textbook p.46: Change in revenue which is brought be depreciation or appreciation depends on the price elasticity of demand. Try yourself!!! Trade in Hong Kong Merchandise trade (Goods) Exports Garments Electronic products Toys Jewellery (accounted for more than 60% of total domestic exports in 2008) Trade in Hong Kong Merchandise trade (Goods) Retained imports Raw materials (e.g. gold, silver) Semi-finished goods (e.g. LCD display, plastic button) Capital goods (e.g. truck, machine) Consumption goods (e.g. clothes, TV) Fuel Food (accounted for more than 99% of total retained imports in 2008) Trade in Hong Kong Trade in services Exports of services (Exports have higher value than imports) Financial consultation Commerce Accounting Transportation Entertainment Imports of services (Imports have higher value than exports) Tourism Insurance Trade in Hong Kong Major trading partners Value of goods Total trade volume Import suppliers Export markets Re-exports Sources Destinations High The Mainland The Mainland Low USA The Mainland The Mainland USA Japan The Mainland Japan USA Japan Taiwan Netherlands Taiwan Japan Taiwan Korea UK Korea Germany Trade in Hong Kong Trade based on comparative advantage Low opportunity cost: Exports Goods (e.g. garments, electronic products) Services Low opportunity cost: Re-exports High opportunity cost: Imports Goods (e.g. capital goods) Services Importance of trade to Hong Kong’s economy Acquiring consumption goods and raw materials HK is lack of resources Rely on imports Hugh demand of daily necessities (e.g. food) and raw materials (e.g. coal) Favourable to the development of high valueadded industries HK has comparative advantage in specializing in value-added industries E.g. finance and commercial industrials Importance of trade to Hong Kong’s economy Trade generates huge income In 2010, GDP = $1,748.1billion Exports Value of exports of goods Imports Value of imports of goods = $3,061.3 billion = $3,395.1 billion (175.1% of GDP) (194.2% of GDP) Value of exports of services Value of imports of services = $835.0 billion = $396.6 billion (47.8% of GDP) (22.7% of GDP) International trade is very important to HK economy Pros and Cons of free trade Pros Consumers More choices Cheaper and higher quality imported goods Workers Businessmen Open new markets More profits Owners of Trading firm Products can be sold worldwide More job opportunity More profits Higher wages More business for the company Service providers (e.g. banks, transportation firms) More business More income Pros and Cons of free trade Cons Workers Keen international competition Close down of factories unemployment or less profits Lower wages Local famers Large quantity imported farm products Less sales Poor livelihood Local consumers High quality products are for exports Buy only low quality products locally