Overview of DSS:
Data-Rich & Data-Poor
Approaches
James W. Jones
University of Florida
August 18, 2003
Many DSS Failures
• Too complex
– Content
– Use
– Interpretation of outputs
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of data
Failure to address user needs
Time required to use it
No institutions for continued use
Lack of involvement of users in design,
development
Content
• Data-Rich Examples
– Environmental Policy Example; Watershed
– Field Scale, Weather/Climate Effects on Crops
• Data-Poor Examples
– Watershed Development/Management
– Natural Resource Management-Local Scale
• Important Issues
– Institutional Aspects
– Information Content
1. Policies for Watershed land
use/management
• South Florida Water Management District
• ~30,000 acre watershed N of Lake Okeechobee
• Phosphorus runoff from dairies, other agricultural
lands into Lake Okeechobee
• State policy led to 30% of dairies closing,
changes in land use and management
• Impact assessment on recurring basis
• Data rich, but no framework to interpret it
Watershed Land Use Coverage
LOADSS – Design
USERS
LOADSS User Interface
GIS Databases
SOIL
Soils
GIS-BASED
USER
INTERFACE
SCREEN,
PRINTER
OR PLOTTER
PLAN DESIGN
&
PROCESSING
MAPS
AND
REPORTS
WEATHER
Weather
LAND USE
Hydrology
Political
Boundaries
Sampling
Stations
Basin
Boundaries
HYDROGRAPHY
ECONOMIC
DAIRY
POLLUTION
CONTROL
REGIONAL PLAN
DEFINE
OPTIMIZATION
Land Use
POINT SOURCES
Spatial Data
Bases
Input Attribute
Data Bases
PHOSPHORUS
MATERIAL &
ECONOMIC BUDGETS
OBJECTIVE
FUNCTION
CONSTRAINTS
PCP’S CREAMS-WT
NON-POINT SOURCE
GAMS OPTIMIZATION
SOLVER
Models &
Analysis Tools
POINT SOURCE PCP’S
PROCESS ANALYSIS
BASIN TREATMENTS
PROCESS ANALYSIS
ASSIMILATION
Optimization Module
Scenario Analysis, Phosphorus Load to Lake
Impacts
• Agency adoption (1993), still in use
• Watershed, impacts of changes in land use,
practices on:
– Phosphorus runoff into the lake
– Economic activity of region
– Net P accumulation
• Individual dairy, ex-ante impact assessments
• Agency RFPs
• Implementation in other watersheds
2. Water Resource Management,
Rural Hillsides
• Community-based management
• Scenarios for watershed development
– land use, land management
– river, stream management
– policy implications
• Impacts, “water security”
– water supply
– water demand
– equity
DSS Product
• GIS-based watershed model
• Minimum data set (Data Poor Environment)
–
–
–
–
–
Digital elevation (DEM; ~ 5 m resolution)
General land use categories (Landsat image analysis)
Soil (1: 500,000 scale)
Weather (sparse)
Socioeconomic (population distribution)
• Assess/visualize impacts of changes in land use,
management, population, distribution, water management
(dams)
• General applicability, different watersheds
– Cabuyal, Colombia
– Tascalapa, Honduras
Luijten, J. C., E. B. Knapp, and J. W. Jones. 2001. A tool for community-based
assessment of the implications of development on water security in hillside watersheds.
Agricultural Systems 70(2):603-622.
Menu options in Arcview GIS.
Left side: general hydrological tools.
Right side: SWBM-related functions.
Stream Water Balance
Land
Stream
Vx-1,x
VLF,x
ST,x
VUSE,x
VRO,x
Vx,x+1
Vx,x+1,d = Vx-1,x,d + VRO,x,d + VLF,x,d - VUSE,x,d - STx,d
VUSE,x,d = VDOM,x,d + VIND,x,d + VAGR,x,d
Cabuyal Watershed, Colombia, S.A.
3,240 ha
3000
Simulated
Flow Rate (L/s)
2500
Measured
2000
1500
1000
500
0
JAN 94
JUL 94
JAN 95
JUL 95
JAN 96
JUL 96
JAN 97
JUL 97
Menu to interactively
select the locations of
water use and dams.
Flow Rate (L/s)
700
600
(A) During dry season,
no dams and water use
500
(B) During dry season,
/w dams and water use
C
400
(C) After dry season,
no dams and water use
D
300
(D) After dry season,
/w dams and water use
B
A
200
100
Location of dams
0
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Flow Length to Watershed Outlet (km)
N
21
Variation in Location of Streams Over Time
Tascalapa Watershed, Honduras, 1/1/96 - 12/31/99
River Flow at Watershed Outlet
10000
Hurricane Mitch
Flow rate 55K L/s
9000
Total River Flow
Steady Slow Flow
Measurements
8000
Flow rate (L/s)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
JAN 96
JUL 96
JAN 97
JUL 97
JAN 98
JUL 98
JAN 99
JUL 99
Potential Impacts
• Participatory Research on hillside watersheds
– Planning
– Scenario analysis
– Policy implications (dams, land use, etc.)
• Conflict resolution
But…
• No Institutional participation
• No use outside research labs
Luijten, J. C., E. B. Knapp, and J. W. Jones. 2001. A tool for communitybased assessment of the implications of development on water security in
hillside watersheds. Agricultural Systems 70(2):603-622.
Also: http://www.icasa.net
3. Model-Based Field Scale DSS
• Computer Delivery
– Including crop models
• Whopper Cropper (APSRU)
• PCYield (US: Florida, Iowa, Kansas, etc.)
– Pre-analyzed scenarios
• SUR 95, SUR 2000 (Argentina)
• Other Delivery Methods
– CIAT DSS Booklets on Soil Management
©
PCYield
• Target Audience: Farmers’ Advisors
• Institutional aspects: Private Company-Public
Research partnership
• Crop model based, Internet access to real time
weather data
• Delivery, Maintenance: Private Company
• Target decisions (field scale):
–
–
–
–
–
What and when to plant (variety, crop)
Assessment of weather risk
When and if to irrigate
Response to unexpected events (i.e., hail damage)
Users specify scenarios to compare with their normal
management practices
Getting Data via the Internet
Users Create Scenarios to
Compare
Predicted Dryland Results
Seasonal Plant & Grain Growth
Status of Some Field-Specific
DSS Tools
• PCYield – Used by national crop advice
company (soybean, corn, wheat), 4 years
• CIAT DSS Tools – In use in several
countries by researchers
• SUR 95, SUR 2000 – Unknown
• Whopper Cropper – In use in Australia by
APSRU group
4. Technology Transfer
• Systems Approach
• USAID Project, 1983-93 (IBSNAT)
• Analyze production, economic, and uncertainty
indicators for management options
• Evaluate predictions using experiments in
which minimum data are collected
DSS Products
• DSSAT, Field-Scale
-
Biophysical Models (Crop, Soil, Weather), 17 Crops
Risk Analysis (Biophysical and Economic)
Data Entry and Manipulation Tools
Utilities (graphics, data entry, management,…)
Crop Rotation Analyzer
• GIS Spatial Analysis Products
– GIS-DSSAT Linkage for Region Impact Assessment
– GIS Precision Agriculture Analyzer
• Designed for Use by Researchers
Development & Dissemination
• Network of developers contributing models,
analysis tools, utilities, & data
• Minimum data set defined
• Standard formats, protocols for use, exchange
• Network of testers
• Packagers, maintainers, distributors
• Trainers
DSSAT v4.0
Impacts
• Adopted by more than 1200 researchers in 90
countries
• Impacts of climate change; used in > 8
national & international projects worldwide
• Hundreds of applications independent of
developers
• Participation of CGIAR, related centers,
CRSPs
Important Issues
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•
•
•
•
Target Decisions, Policies
Target Users, Beneficiaries
Information Content
Development Process
Institutional aspects
– Participation of Users
– Diffusion, adoption of DSS (Scaling up)
– Maintenance
• Time and resource requirements
GECAFS DSS?