Recapitulation I: Simpson’s paradox
 Principle: Collapsing a table over a
variable can result in judgments that
are in opposition to those based on
all variables.
0.7
Recapitulation II: Simpson’s paradox
0.5
0.6
 Exercise 2.4:
0.4
0.3
0.2
female
0.0
efficiency of the drug
male
A
Drug
B
0.9
 Exercise 2.5:
1.0
Recapitulation III: Simpson’s paradox
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
weight >90 kg
0.0
percentage of normal blood pressure
weight 90 kg
high
low
weight at birth
Recapitulation IV: Ecological fallacy
 Treatment of clustered (grouped)
data
Recapitulation V: Regression to the
110
120
130
mean
x
100
y
x
80
90
x
y
x
70
y
y
xy
80
90
100
x
110
120
y|x
200
Recapitulation VI: Lord’s paradox
100
Posttest
150
Grammar School (N = 250)
50
Secundary Schoole (N = 250)
50
100
150
Pretest
200
Memory Judgments
Cognitive Mechanism: Encoding,
retrieval, and forgetting of memory
information
 Misleading information (Loftus)
 Misinformation: realistic examples
 Piaget
 Ingram
 Memory and psychological interventions
Memory Judgments
Cognitive Mechanism: Reality
monitoring
Cognitive Mechanism: Source
monitoring
Explanation of Loftus’ results by means of
source monitoring and reality monitoring
Memory Judgments: DRM paradigm
 Basic experimental result
 Explanation:
 IAR
 Reality monitoring
 Source monitoring
Memory Judgments:
Stability and
Change
 Experiment: Marcus, 1982
 Explanation: Anchoring and
adjustment
 Mechanism
 Experiment Tversky & Kahneman,
1974
 Experiment: Conway & Ross, 1982
Memory Judgments:
Hindsight Bias
 Hindsight bias: Concept
 Experiment of Fishoff & Beyth,
1975
Memory Judgments:
Retrospective
Evaluation
 Basic Experiment
 Application
 Explanation: Snap-shot model
Probability Judgments:
Heuristics
and Biases
 Heuristics & Bias program.
 Bounded rationality:
Satisficing vs. optimizing.
 Heuristics:
 Availability.
 Representativeness.
 Anchoring and Adjustment
Probability Judgments:
 Availability heuristic:
 Functioning.
 Examples.
 Imagination and Availability.
 Personal Experience and
Availability.
Exercices
 Exercise 2-6: Ecological fallacy
 Exercise 2-7: Lord’s paradox
An Excel file comprising the data is
on Gestens.