Wilnelia Rivera
UEP 232
Spring 2012
Assignment #7
The Spatial Distribution of the Massachusetts Rising Electorate
Over the last decade, the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research has conducted pioneer research on the American Rising Electorate (ARE)—unmarried women, youth (18-29), African
Americans, and Latinos— in the political process. This population now represents the majority of eligible adult voters at 52 percent—a new reality in the cannon of American politics, planning, and policy. Once considered the minority vote this demographic is expected to continue to rise; therefore, espousing new opportunities for American society and democracy. Clearly, this pattern differs once we shift from the national to the state, county, city, or precinct level. This is one of the central focuses of my thesis.
In my thesis, The Role of Urban Politics in Shaping the Planning & Public Policy Making Process: A
Case Study of Massachusetts, I conduct a literature review that covers the American political system, partisan politics, voter behavior models, planning theory, social movements and planning history of
American cities. In doing so I seek to document the consistent exclusion this electorate from the
American political system, which has left them largely neglected along with the white working class.
By focusing on MA I look to provide evidence of the increasingly influential role of this electorate in statewide elections, which first emerged in the election of Governor Deval Patrick in 2006.
All the geographic data layers (listed below) for this assignment will provide the quantitative and spatial analysis at the precinct level of this electorate that will support my central thesis: Given the history and fundamental role of partisan politics shaping the public policy we need to understand who are the constituencies that are likely to support a progressive policy agenda, where are they located, what is their actual and potential role, and how much has this population grown since 2000.
In order to measure the change in population growth between the Census 2000 and Census 2010 data I must complete a field calculator operation to calculate the percentage of people of color for the Census 200 data since it is missing from the existing tabula data. Also, I will conduct a select by location analysis that explores the spatial relationship between the geographic data layers and income and the eligible voter population people of color using data from the Census 2000 and
Census 2010.
Due to the data limitation, I will limit this GIS analysis to the cities of Holyoke, Worcester,
Springfield, and Lynn, where I have the most recent Primary 2011 and General 2011 elections along with the 2010 Primary and General 2010. I expect that for my actual thesis I will complete an analysis for those areas with the highest density of MRE, which I would expect would be concentrated in 24 of the state’s main urban cities or centers. I will be getting access to the 2000 voter turnout information but that will not happen until mid-May.
Lastly, most political geographic research uses aggregate level data and survey tools as the preferred the instrument of choice for this type of analysis. Based on the literature review, the reason for this related to the inaccuracy and inconsistency of voter and voter history data collection.
The few instances that we find political geographical analyses they are conducted analyze past electoral outcomes. This is further complicated, by the use of voter regression models as the conventional tool to predict electoral outcomes. Yet I contend (as do recent authors) that political geography is increasingly becoming part of the advance campaign operation, particularly given the dramatic demographic changes that we are experience. For instance, in the 2010 Deval Patrick campaign we used GIS and smart phone technology to visually track voter turnout from when the

polls opened until we close. Poll checkers scanned the polling lists with their smart phones, which then uploaded directly into our GIS map in the War Room. This allowed us to visually capture challenges and progress in the field, which allowed us to make key changes to our allocation of resources. Thus, geography is increasingly playing a larger role campaign strategy and voter turnout.
Below I also discuss particular data limitations that also will impact this assignment and my thesis.
Question #1 What is the spatial distribution of the MA Rising Electorate at the precinct level? What patters, if any, do we observe?
Question #2 How many precincts meet the definition of the MRE?
Question #3 How much has this population grown since 2000?
Question #2 Given the statewide picture of this electorate, what is the gap between actual voter turnout of this electorate (confined to Holyoke, Springfield, Worcester, and Lynn in 2010 and 2011 electoral cycle) and its potential?
Determining Massachusetts Rising Electoral (MRE): income, percentage people of color, and people eligible to vote
Tabular Data Matrix for Select by Location Analysis: Begin by targeting precincts using two primary factors:
A. Racial and Ethnic Minorities:
1. Rank precincts according to: a.
15 % percentage of the eligible voting age population who are people of color (this number might have to be higher on time limitation to complete analysis) b.
Percentage of the eligible voting age population who are black or Latino or Asian
(based on Census 2000 & Census 2010 data)
2. Divide precincts into tiers base on % percentage people of color, low-income voter
(definition below)
3. For communities with less than 15% of the eligible voting age, exclude from analysis
B. Low-Income Voters
1. Identify precincts where at least the median income is: o as less than $25,000; and o less than $50,000
Geographic Data Layers (all from MASGIS)
 2012 Voting Precincts shape files
 2000 Voting Precincts shape files
 2000 Census TIGER File
 2010 Census TIGER File
 Legislative Districts: HOUSE2012_POLY & SENATE2012_POLY
 Legislative Districts: HOUSE2002_POLY & SENATE2002_POLY
 HYDRO25K_POLY

Attribute Data
 Census 2010 Demographic Data
 Census 2000 Demographic Data
Voter Data for Deeper Analysis (I might be able to go further but have not received a response from the Voter Activist Network if they have completed updating the voter history)
 2010 Voter Turnout in Holyoke, Worcester, Springfield, and Lynn
 2011 Voter Turnout in Holyoke, Worcester, Springfield, and Lynn
Projected Coordinate System
 NAD_1983_StatePlane_Massachusetts_Mainland_FIPS_2001
Data Analysis Limitation:
Generally speaking, Massachusetts has a high voter registration but low participation rates overall and even more so in this electorate. This problem is made worst due to annual local census count in many urban municipalities leads to high numbers of voters categorized as inactive, which expunges from the active voter precinct list. Unfortunately this disproportionately impacts this electorate due to low rates of completion of the annual local census forms. That is why originally, I wanted to also compare the eligible voter population analysis with actual voter turnout rates of this target electorate at the precinct level. Moreover, I developed a strategic voter history query (below) that would have kept us from overstating the role of this electorate. But since every individual city and town maintains their own information it would take a great deal of time to complete this analysis. In addition, the Census data report eligible population to voter per precincts, which also includes people not eligible to vote such as the incarcerated or non-citizens.
 People who voted in the 2008 election but missed the 2010 US Senate Special Election, 2010
Governor’s race, plus
 People who voted in 2006 Governor’s Race, 2007/2009/2011 Municipal Elections
 Everyone who registered since 2008 and missed 2 elections
 Do not include those who were registered before 2008 and have never voted (this keeps us from overstating the role of this electorate)
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