ECONIMICS MICRO INDU ENTITIES (FIRM, GOOD) MACRO AGGREGATES (UNEMPLOYMENT) All govt. adopt Macro-economic policies with the following objectives: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Economic growth and development Price stability (decreasing inflection) short term Full employment External equilibrium Decreases income inequality (fair/ equitable distribution of income) Circular flow of income 2 sector model. GOODS AND SERVICES HOUSE HOLDS FIRMS FACTOR SERVISES (LAND LABOR) CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FIRMS HOUSE HOLD FACTOR INCOME 4 sector model. TAX HOUSE HOLDS SAVING GOVERMENT BANKING IMPORT EXP REST OF THE WORLD CONSUMPTION EXP FACTOR INCOME/ PAYMENT FIRMS GOVT. EXP LEAKAGES TAXES SAVINGS IMPORT EXP INJECTIONS EXPORT EARNING S EXPORTS EARNINGS INVESTMENTS GOVT. EXP OUTPUT = INCOME = EXPENDUTURE EXPENDUTURE CONSUMPTION GOVT EXP INVESTMENT EXP EXPORTS – IMPORT Concepts of national income Domestic vs. National Gross domestic product (GDP): is the money value of all final goods and services produced within the domestic territory of a country in an accounting year. Income generated by Indian firms in India (Y1) + income generated by forging firms in India (Y2) Gross national product (GNP): money value of all final goods and services produced by domestic factor of production in an accounting year. Income generated by Indian firms in India (Y1) + income generated by Indian firms abroad (Y3) GNP = GDP +(Y3 – Y2) (Y3 – Y2) net property income from abroad (NPIA) GNP > GDP: NPIA = +ve, net inflow of money GNP = GDP: NPIA = 0 GNP < GNP: NPIA = -ve, net outflow of money Gross vs. Net Net Domestic Product (NDP): GDP – depreciation (capital consumption allowance) (the loss in value of capital goods due to wear and tear) Net National Product (NNP): GNP – depreciation Market price vs. Factor cost GDP, GNP, NDP, NNP money value calculated using the market price. GDPMP (GDP at market price) – ((indirect tax – subsidies) net indirect taxes) GDP at factor cost. GNPMP – net indirect taxes = GNPFC GDPMP – net indirect taxes = GDPFC NNPFC national income. Nominal vs. Real Using GDP Nominal GDP: if the GDP of the country for a particular year is calculated by taking the prices that prevailed in that year, it is called nominal GDP or GDP at current prices. Note National income or GDP of a country is calculated in money terms. It represents the total output produced in the country. However, the value of money is not constant and changes with inflation or deflation. Therefore, it makes comparison of GDP in different periods inaccurately. The objective is to find out the change in total production. Real GDP: 𝑁𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 Total vs. Per Capita Using GDP Total GDP 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃 Per Capita GDP: 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 average Commonly indicator of economic dev. (tells avg. standard of living) AD/AS model Aggregate demand (AD): is the sum total of all final goods and services demanded in an economy. It is a relation between price level and real GDP/output. (The sum total of all individual demands). Is the same as the total planned spending in an economy: Households consumption expenditure ‘C’ Producers/Firms investment expenditure ‘I’ Government govt. Expenditure ‘G’ Rest of the world net exports ‘X (exports) –M (imports)’ Commodity A B C D 6460 ∗ 100 3700 P1 (2005) 25 50 10 100 P2 (2010) 50 60 8 250 Weight (W) 40 30 20 10 Total P1W 1000 1500 200 1000 3700 P2W 2000 1800 160 2500 6460 = 175IS THE PRICE LEVEL (price index) Price level price index 1. Consumer price index 2. GDP deflator Inverse/negative relation between P2 and real GDP Price level (GDP Deflators) Real GDP/output The negative relation between PL and AD can be explained by the following 2 effects: 1. Income effect: it states, if PL increases lower purchasing power decrease in real income lower AD. 2. Substitution effect: can be broken into 3 parts: a. Net export effect: if PL increases domestic goods become expensive an increases in demand for imported goods (X-M) decreasing AD falling. b. Net interest rate effect: if PL increases increases demand for loans increases the interest rates (r). this will result in 3 way i. Saving increases consumption decreases AD decreases ii. Borrowing for purchase of durable goods decreases consumption decreases AD decreases iii. Investments decreases AD decreases c. Real balance effect: when PL increases the real value of bank deposits/balance fall this results in increase savings and decrease in consumption therefore, AD decreases Change in AD (shift) Black: decreases Blue: original Red: increases Price level Real GDP AD will change if one of the components of AD that is consumption, investment, govt. exp., and net exports changes Consumption expenditure in an economy will change if: a) Economic Growth: increase in National Income (NI) increase in consumer income increase in consumption expenditure AD increases and vice versa. b) Interest Rate (r): a. Increase in r increases in savings decrease in consumption decrease in AD and vice versa. b. Increase in r decrease in borrowing to purchase DG decrease in consumption decrease in AD and vice versa. c) Consumer confidence: if people are confident and optimistic, about their economic future consumption increases AD increases and vice versa (mostly happens in economic boom) d) Wealth: increase in wealth increase in consumption increase in AD and vice vresa Investment expenditure will change if A) Economic growth NI increases income of people increases demand increases investment increases (I) AD increases and vice versa B) Interest rate: r increases I decreases AD decreases and vice versa. C) Business confidence: if business confidence is high I increases AD increases (mainly in economic boom) D) Technology improvement in tech. decrease in cost and increase in profits I increase AD increase and vice versa. Govt. Exp. In an economy will change if: Govt. exp. depends on govt. policies Net exports changes if a) Exports changes: exports of a country will change (rise)(vice versa of the whole thing) if: a. Economic growth in the countries where goods are exported to. b. High rate of inflation in the countries where goods are exported to. c. Devaluation of the domestic currency. b) Imports change: imports of a country will change (rise)(vice versa of the whole thing) if: a. Domestic economic experience growth b. High rate of inflation c. If the value of the domestic currency increases Govt. policies affection AD Also called demand side policies It can be expansionary (if they increase AD) or contractionary (if they decrease AD). 1. Fiscal policy: are policies of the Govt. relating to tax rate (Direct tax) and govt. expenditure. a. Expansionary fiscal policy (increase AD): the govt. will : i. Decreases income tax rate will increases disposable income increases consumption exp. AD increases. ii. Decreases corporate tax incentive to invest increases investment AD increases iii. Increase govt. exp. (G) AD increases Are generally adopted to increase economic growth Decrease unemployment. Normally at time of recession. iv. Consequence: budget deficit deficit financing: 1. Borrowing (inflation) 2. Print money (inflation) b. Contractionary fiscal policy: Is adopted at the times of high inflation i. Increase direct tax (income & corporate) decreases AD ii. Decrease govt. exp. decreases AD iii. Consequence: 1. Lower economic growth 2. Increases unemployment iv. Good thing: 1. Decrease budget deficit 2. Decrease inflation 2. Monetary policy: is the policy of the govt. relating to the interest rate and the money supply. a. Expansionary monetary policy (increase AD): i. Reducing interest rate (r) (to do this): 1. Reduces bank rate (the rate of interest that the central bank charges when commercial bank borrow) (if a c. bank borrow at a low interest rate they will charge low interest while lending. Therefore, the interest rate of c. bank will fall) AD increases. ii. Increase money supply (Ms) 1. Money supply (total amount of deposit and cash held by people in a country) it can be controlled by govt. in 3 ways: a. Cash reserve ratio (CRR): is the proportion of the deposits that the c. bank have to hold as deposits with the c. bank. If CRR decreases less money with c. banks to lend. Vice versa b. Statutory Liquidity ratio (SLR): is the proportion of the total deposits that a c. bank needs to keep in form of govt. securities or gold. If SLR decreases less money to lend and vice versa c. Open market operation: refers to the selling and purchase govt. securities. If the govt. wants to increases money supply it will buy the securities and vice versa. iii. +ve. 1. Increases eco. Growth 2. Decrease unemployment iv. –ve. 1. Increase inflation b. Contractionary monetary policy i. Increases interest rate – increase bank rate ii. Decrease Ms 1. Increases CRR 2. Increase SLR 3. By selling govt. securities iii. +ve. 1. Decrease inflation iv. –ve. 1. Decrease eco. Growth 2. Increase unemployment Under money supply Black: money supply decrease Blue: original Red: money supply increase Interest rate Demand for money Quantity of money Aggregate supply (AS) Is the sum total of all final goods and services that all industry in an economy plan to produce at different price level. It is also equal to aggregate of all individual supply. Short run: is the time period between which the prices of final goods and services can adjust to equilibrium but factor prices do not. In short the product market can adjust to equilibrium but other market cannot. Long run: is the time period during which all market including the labor market adjusts to the equilibrium. Short run aggregate supply (SRAS) The SRAS curve shows the relation between AS and the price level in the short run. It is the total amount of output that all firms plan to produce at different price level. d Price level [GDP deflator] c a b Real GDP SRAS curves have 3 sections: 1. a-b: the price level remain constant and real GDP charges. Represents mass unemployment and underutilization of resources firms can keep on hiring without a rise in factor cost average cost remain constant profit will remain constant intensive of price rise is not necessary to increase production. 2. b-c: output will increase in Pl increases. In this section firms experiences increase in AC with increase in production & hence require an incentive of price rise to increase production. That is because law of diminishing marginal returns sat in and resource bottle neck (economy experiences shortage of cretin skills. 3. c-d: with increase in Pl output does not chance physical limit of production (reaches the highest limit of PPC). Since economy will normally operate in section b-c a normal SRAS curve will be drawn as a positively sloped line representing that AS will only rise with the price level Short run macro equilibrium In the short run the economy will be at equilibrium at the where AD = SRAS SRAS Price level E AD Real GDP E is the point of equilibrium Long run AS curve (LRAS) Two views on the shape curve: 1. KEYNESIAN VIEW: a. Extreme Keynesian view: AD1 AS AD2 Price level E Y1 AD3 Y* Real GDP i. Y* physical limit of production full employment output ii. Wage – price rigidity 1. Wages are rigid not fall below the accepted rate 2. Price are rigid price do not fall oligopoly iii. Where the economy will operate depends on the position of AD curve (given the AS curve) Therefore, AD AD1… economy will oprate at E. Actual output = Y1 {Y1 < Y*} actual output < potential output Therefore, unemployment > NRU Therefore, to achieve full employment govt. should shift AD1 to AD2 actual output = potential output full employment [AD can be shifted by expansionary demand side policies] The government can increase AD without increasing PL If AD AD3 full employment but high inflation, govt. can decrease AD & there by decrease inflation (by continuing demand side policy) without increasing unemployment. He gave a lot of stress to demand side policies & therefore believed in govt. intervention to reduce unemployment & inflation d Price level c a b Real GDP b. i. Between a & b a change in AD (by demand side policy) will only change employment but not price level. ii. Between b & c a change in AD will effect both iii. Between c & d a change in AD will effect only the PL 2. NEO-CLASSICA VIEW a. Say’s Law: supply creates its own demand. AS increases production increases increase in income increase in AD. Therefore, in long run AS = AD. b. Wage price flexibility: in the long run, wages and prices will adjust to restore equilibrium whenever there is excess demand or supply in the market. In the long run all market are in equilibrium labor market is in equilibrium AD for labor is equal to AS of labor unemployment t is at the natural rate (some amount of unemployment who are not willing to work or are not able to work at full employment) economy is operating at full employment economy is producing/operating at potential output. LRAS PL Real GDP No matter what is the PL, the economy will operate at potential output (full employment) Case I LRAS SRAS SRAS1 Price level E AD Y1 Y* Real GDP Short run equilibrium is at E (SRAS = AD) Output = Y1 Actual output Actual output (Y1) < potential output (Y*) Unemployment > NRU (5%) ADL < ASL excess supply of labor Wages rate decreases Av. Cost of production decreases SRAS curve shifts to the right till all excess supply is eliminated economy is operates at full emp. actual output is = to pot. Output & unemployment = NRUs Case 2 SRAS1 LRAS Price level SRAS E AD1 AD Y* Y1 Real GDP Actual output (Y1) >potential output (Y*) Unemployment < NRU AD of labor > AS of labor increase in wage rate increase in AC of production. SEAS will shift to the left till excess demand for labor is eliminated economy operates at full emp. Conclude: it the long run economy will operate at full emp. Output = potential output Shift of SRAS curve SRAS Price level Real GDP SRAS will increase if 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Decrease in wage rate Decrease resource cost Improvement in tech. Good weather conditions Decrease in import prices Shift of LRAS LRAS Price level Real GDP LRAS will increase if (pot. Output increases) 1. Quality and quantity of labor increases 2. Improvement in tech. 3. Improvement in quality and quantity other factor of production Supply side policies Are the policies of a govt. which brings about a change (shifts) the AS curve and thereby changes the potential or act. Output. These policies aim to allow the market forces to act freely with minimum govt. intervention