Chapter 10
Elections and
Voting Behavior
How American elections work
Three kinds of elections:
Primary elections: voters select party nominees
General elections:contested between nominees of each
party
Elections on specific policy questions for legislation—
recently become more common in some states and in
European countries (EU vote, etc.)
• Two ways for public to pass legislation directly:
– Referendum—Whereby voters are given the opportunity to approve or
disapprove some legislative act
– Initiative Petition –Requires gaining signatures on a proposed law equal
to 10% of the number of voters in the previous election
– (24 states do this: SD, CA, OR, CO, etc.)
A Tale of Four Elections
in the United States
1800: The First Electoral
Transition of Power
Incumbent President John
Adams (Federalists)
• Challenger Thomas
Jefferson (DemocraticRepublican)
Issue was with the initial set
up of the Electoral College
First peaceful transfer of
power between parties
via the electoral process
in history
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1896: A Bitter Fight over
Economic Interests
Incumbent president, (D) Grover
Cleveland, was blamed for 1893
depression
William Jennings Bryan
(Democrat) V. William McKinley
(Republican)
80% eligible voters turned out and
voted
Democrats’ main issue: unlimited
coinage of silver
William Jennings Bryan won the
Democratic Party nomination with
speeches about the virtues of silver
McKinley won the election and the
Republicans regained majority
status.
Thus the way was clear for the
Progressive Movement to impose
a new way of thinking and a new
agenda for politics.
The U.S. presidential election of
2000 was one of the closest
elections in U.S. history,
decided by only several hundred
votes in the swing state of
Florida. On election night, the
media prematurely declared a
winner twice based on exit polls
before finally conceding that the
Florida race was too close to
call. It would turn out to be a
month before the election was
finally certified after numerous
court challenges and recounts.
Republican candidate George
W. Bush won Florida's 25
electoral votes by a razor-thin
margin of the popular vote
there, and thereby defeated
Democratic candidate Al Gore.
2000: What a Mess!!
•
2004: The Ratification of a
Polarizing Presidency
– George W. Bush became the fourth Republican
since McKinley to win a second term.
– The intensity of the election was in part due to
the controversy of the 2000 election.
– The 2004 campaign was characterized by
negative campaigning.
– Leadership of the War on Terrorism and “moral
values” proved to be key issues.
Electoral College Results
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s
First Choice
From Government in America, 13th edition.
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s
First Choice
• U.S. has low voter turnout
– Downs: it is rational to not vote
• Those who see clear differences between parties are likely to
vote.
• If indifferent, then one may rationally abstain from voting.
– Political Efficacy: the belief that one’s political
participation really matters
– Civic Duty: the belief that in order to support democratic
government, a citizen should always vote
Who Votes?
• Based on:
Education
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Age
Race
Gender
Marital status
Mobility
Union membership
http://www.usatoday.com/interactiv
es/news/politics/how-the-race-waswon
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s
First Choice
• Who Votes?
– Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote
– Union Membership: Union member = more
likely to vote
– Traits are cumulative–possessing several adds
up
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/05/08/six-take-awaysfrom-the-census-bureaus-voting-report/
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Policy Voting
– Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where
the candidates stand on policy issues
– Policy voting may occur if :
• Voters know where they and the candidates stand on issues and
see differences between candidates
– Unlikely to occur because:
• Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
• Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues.
– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the
party primaries increasing chances for policy voting.
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Mandate theory of
elections: The idea that
the winning candidate has
a mandate from the people
to carry out his or her
platform and politics
• Party identification
• How Americans see the
candidates
• Policy voting: When
people base their choices
in an election on their own
issue preferences
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice
The Last Battle: The
Electoral College
• Electoral college actually elects the
president—founders wanted him chosen by
the elite of the country
• States choose the electors
• Winner-Take-All system gives bigger
emphasis to more populated states
The Last Battle: The
Electoral College
• How it works today:
– Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives
and Senators.
– Winner of popular vote typically gets all the Electoral
College votes for that state
– Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the
vice president in January
– If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the House
of Representatives votes for president, with each state
casting one vote.
The Last Battle:
The Electoral College
• ABA: “archaic,
undemocratic, complex,
ambiguous, indirect, and
dangerous”
• According to Lineberry
“many, but certainly not
all, political scientists
oppose its continued use,
as do most voters” (p.314)
• Founders wanted president
to be elected by the
nation’s elite not the
people