21 November 2015 Mr Hans Hoogervorst Chairman The International Accounting Standards Board IFRS Foundation 30 Cannon Street London EC4M 6XH Dear Hans IASB Exposure Draft ED/2015/3 Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting I am pleased to submit the comments below, relating specifically to the treatment of prudence in the conceptual framework. Kind regards, Richard Barker Professor of Accounting richard.barker@sbs.ox.ac.uk Prudence in the Conceptual Framework 1. What is Prudence? The term ‘prudence’ gets used in different ways, with different meanings. It is important, therefore, to be clear about definition. In particular, there appear to be two distinct concepts of prudence that are prominent in the debate around the conceptual framework. The first definition is the version described by the IASB itself – let’s call this ‘IASB Prudence’ - according to which prudence is not inconsistent with neutrality but can instead be seen as a mechanism for ensuring neutrality, for exercising careful judgement in ensuring that accounting is neutral. Note that ‘neutral’ can be interpreted here to mean selecting and applying measurement attributes in a way that is free from bias. So, for example, the IASB has selected a recoverable cost basis for inventory under IAS 2, and in that context an entity’s accounting is neutral when this basis is applied, even though the market value of the inventory is unrecognised if it exceeds cost, yet recognised when it falls below. It follows that neutral accounting need not be symmetric, in the sense that gains and losses are equally likely to be recognised (Barker, 2015). The second definition is that which describes the more traditional interpretation of prudence in accounting practice – let’s call this ‘Conventional Prudence’ according to which prudence is the application of a higher threshold of verifiability for the recognition of gains than for losses. According to this definition, prudent accounting results from asymmetry in recognition criteria (with recognition more likely for liabilities than assets), or else from asymmetry in the application of any given measurement attribute (with loss recognition more likely than gain recognition).1 The application of conventional prudence results in a lower carrying amount of net assets than the application of IASB prudence. It is important, however, to understand the nature of this difference. In particular, it is important to address the question of whether conventional prudence implies a downward bias in net asset value and whether it is therefore inconsistent with neutrality. A first observation is that conventional prudence does not mean that there should be a systematic bias towards undervaluing all assets and overvaluing all These two types of prudence are referred to in the research literature as, respectively, ‘unconditional conservatism’ and ‘conditional conservatism’. 1 liabilities: it is not a carte blanche for a misleading understatement of net assets. As set out in Table 1 below, the concept of conventional prudence applies only where there exists significant uncertainty in measurement, and even then only when the uncertainty concerns gains as opposed to losses. ‘Uncertainty’ here means that any carrying amount under consideration is an estimate that would be difficult to verify, in that there is significant subjective judgement in determining the carrying amount at the balance sheet date.2 Conventional prudence does not in principle allow either a deliberate understatement of gains in the absence of uncertainty or, under any circumstance, the deliberate overstatement of losses; in each of these contexts, there is no difference in accounting between conventional prudence and IASB prudence. Rather, the purpose of conventional prudence is to defer the recognition of gains that are subjectively estimated (i.e. ‘uncertain’) at the balance sheet date and that therefore can neither be verified nor relied upon, and it is in this context only that accounting under conventional prudence is different from accounting under IASB prudence. Table 1: the scope of Conventional Prudence Uncertainty: is it difficult to verify the carrying amount? Assets/Gains Liabilities/Losses No Timely recognition Timely recognition Yes Deferred recognition Timely recognition The test case, therefore, is when economic gains are uncertain. In this context, net asset values under conventional prudence cannot be higher than they would be under IASB prudence, and are likely instead to be lower. Whether or not this difference amounts to bias depends upon how the concept of neutrality is understood, because it is against the benchmark of neutrality that the presence of bias is determined. Noteworthy, therefore, is that neutrality could in principle be interpreted in at least three different ways. The first is that neutral means that the carrying amount of an asset is an unbiased estimate of its economic value. This is the notion of neutrality that might most commonly be applied in domains other than accounting, but it is not the sense in which neutrality in accounting is usually interpreted. (Neutrality does not imply a ‘full fair value’ balance sheet.) A second meaning is that recognition and measurement criteria are applied equally to assets as to liabilities, to gains as to losses. Yet we have Note that the concept being described here differs from the concept of realisation. While the realisation of gains is associated with uncertainty, because unrealised gains are exposed to changes in value, the concept here concerns the extent to which the amounts recognised in the balance sheet can be verified. So, for example, the value of a traded equity investment is likely to be straightforward to verify, notwithstanding that the value ultimately realised from the investment might differ significantly from the current carrying amount. In other words, the concept of uncertainty here concerns measurability at the balance sheet date. 2 seen already that recoverable amount fails this test, and so again this not a helpful interpretation for accounting. Third, neutral could just mean that IFRS is specified and applied without prejudice, without distortion that influences users of accounts. On this view, neither IASB prudence nor conventional prudence is biased. This is because, while each form of prudence differs in the recognition and measurement criteria determined by the IASB, they do not differ with respect to whether the design and implementation of accounting standards has a distorted influence on users. Hence, while the carrying amounts could differ, either approach may be described as being consistent with neutrality. The key difference to explore between the two concepts of prudence does not, therefore, concern neutrality per se, but instead whether there is a role for the delayed recognition of gains under conditions of uncertainty. In addressing this question, the structure of this note is as follows: first, the note reviews how the concept of prudence in the Framework has evolved, from inception in 1989, through revision in 2010, and how ambiguity in definition existed throughout this period; second, it is argued that the 2015 ED ended the ambiguity, but did so by unhelpfully identifying prudence with neutrality; third, the theoretical and practical case for conventional prudence is reviewed; fourth, arguments against conventional prudence are evaluated; finally, recommendations are made for the treatment of prudence in the Framework. 2. Ambiguity in the pre-2015 Framework In the original (1989) version of the IASB’s Framework, prudence was described (in para. 37) as an aspect of reliability. Immediately prior to that description, in para. 36, was a description of neutrality, which is important in setting the context for the subsequent discussion of prudence. The full text of both paragraphs is as follows. To be reliable, the information contained in financial statements must be neutral, that is, free from bias. Financial statements are not neutral if, by the selection or presentation of information, they influence the making of a decision or judgement in order to achieve a predetermined result or outcome. (para. 36) The preparers of financial statements do, however, have to contend with the uncertainties that inevitably surround many events and circumstances, such as the collectability of doubtful receivables, the probable useful life of plant and equipment and the number of warranty claims that may occur. Such uncertainties are recognised by the disclosure of their nature and extent and by the exercise of prudence in the preparation of the financial statements. Prudence is the inclusion of a degree of caution in the exercise of the judgements needed in making the estimates required under conditions of uncertainty, such that assets or income are not overstated and liabilities or expenses are not understated. However, the exercise of prudence does not allow, for example, the creation of hidden reserves or excessive provisions, the deliberate understatement of assets or income, or the deliberate overstatement of liabilities or expenses, because the financial statements would not be neutral and, therefore, not have the quality of reliability. (para. 37) A first point to note is that the description of prudence in para. 37 makes a distinction between, on the one hand, ‘the deliberate understatement of assets or income, or the deliberate overstatement of liabilities and expenses’ and, on the other hand, ‘the inclusion of a degree of caution in making the estimates required under conditions of uncertainty, such that assets or income are not overstated and liabilities or expenses are not understated.’ The first of these two components is entirely in line with both IASB prudence and conventional prudence, both of which rule out the deliberate understatement of assets or income, and also the deliberate overstatement of liabilities or expenses. With respect to the second component, however – which concerns the specific question of the deferred recognition of uncertain gains - it is less clear whether the 1989 Framework is an expression of either IASB prudence or conventional prudence; it could be interpreted either one way or the other. On the one hand, prudence might be interpreted as being consistent with timely, neutral gain recognition. If uncertainty allows management the opportunity to be over-optimistic in their measurement of net assets, then a requirement to be prudent may simply be an admonition to be neutral, in the sense of not exploiting the inherent subjectivity in applying accounting standards in order to overstate net assets. In other words, prudence means guarding against overoptimism, and ‘caution … that … assets and income are not overstated’ simply means taking care to ensure neutrality. On the other hand, the ‘however’ at the start of para. 37 can be taken to qualify the meaning of neutrality in para. 36, such that ‘caution … that … assets or income are not overstated’ but that ‘liabilities or expenses are not understated’ means that gains and losses should be treated asymmetrically, with the possibility that a given level of uncertainty leads to recognition of the latter but not the former. In other words, prudence means a higher threshold of verifiability for gains than for losses, such that there is a trade-off between prudence and timely gain recognition. In this context, it should be noted that para. 37 does not recommend ‘caution … that … liabilities or expenses are not overstated’ and that ‘assets and income are not understated.’ Instead, the language is explicitly concerned with an asymmetry, with the possibility that net assets might be overstated, and implicitly therefore unconcerned with the opposite possibility that they might be understated. This can be seen as erring on the side of cautious understatement: if the gain is uncertain, don’t recognise it, but recognise a loss even when it is difficult to estimate. The IASB’s decision, in 2010, to remove para. 37 from the Framework, and along with it any reference to prudence, could again be interpreted in either of the two ways just described. On the one hand, it could be viewed as a simple tidying-up of what was always intended in the Framework. On this view, it was unhelpful that the reference to prudence could be interpreted as an invitation towards the biased understatement of net assets, meaning that its removal simply clarified that the aim is neutrality. In particular, as it might have appeared that the Framework was internally inconsistent in requiring both neutrality and bias, the removal of this anomaly enhanced the Framework’s ostensible conceptual clarity. On the other hand, however, the removal of prudence could be seen as fundamentally changing the Framework, because the notion of a trade-off between prudence and timely gain recognition was no longer entertained, and because neutral was thereby (re)interpreted as not being (conventionally) prudent. It is perhaps not surprising, therefore, that there is a degree of confusion about the interpretation of prudence, both by the IASB itself and by its stakeholders, in both the 1989 and 2010 versions of the Framework. 3. Prudence in the 2015 ED In contrast with this ambiguity in 1989 and 2010, however, the reintroduction of prudence in the 2015 ED was clearly in the form of ‘IASB Prudence’. With no explicit acknowledgement of the presence of uncertainty, the 2015 reintroduction included the statement that ‘the exercise of prudence is consistent with neutrality and should not allow the overstatement or understatement of assets, liabilities, income or expenses.’ This insistence that ‘prudence is consistent with neutrality,’ along with the symmetric application to ‘overstatement or understatement,’ seems to rule out the asymmetry of a higher threshold of verifiability for recognising gains than losses. This approach is, however, fundamentally flawed. The reason is that it introduces a ‘concept’ into the Framework that is not really a concept at all. At best this achieves nothing; at worst it leads to confusion. The problem is that prudence is in substance defined in a way that adds nothing to the concept of neutrality; as defined, prudence essentially means ‘make sure to be neutral’. Given that the Framework defines neutrality already, there is nothing to be gained from the introduction of an additional ‘concept’ that has no distinctive meaning. This is not to say that neutrality and prudence mean the same thing; indeed, neutrality is a broader concept than IASB prudence. Rather, the point is not that the concepts are the same, but instead that there is nothing to be gained, conceptually, by introducing the concept of prudence in addition to that of neutrality, because it does not lead to any conclusion that would not anyway be reached by the application of neutrality. Moreover, the presence of two terms and definitions that lead to the same conceptual outcome invites unavoidably fruitless attempts to understand why and how one differs from the other. An additional concern is that, because ‘prudence’ means different things to different people, the ‘reintroduction’ of prudence is likely to be misunderstood as an accommodating response by the IASB to demands that the Framework should embed prudence as conventionally understood. Such demands were evident in numerous comment letters on the 2010 Framework revision (and see also EFRAG, 2013). In this context, the IASB’s use of a common term to convey an uncommon meaning is at best unhelpful. At worst, though, it signals problems down the road, as stakeholders become aware that the reintroduction of prudence did not actually mean the reintroduction of (conventional) prudence. Note that, while IASB prudence is defined in a way that adds nothing to the concept of neutrality, conventional prudence is not. This is because the concept of IASB prudence has no role to play in determining the nature of neutral accounting, whereas conventional prudence can have direct implications for whether or not to recognise economic gains. The concept of conventional prudence therefore has the potential to influence IASB decision-making, while IASB prudence does not. 4. Is there a role for Conventional Prudence? If IASB Prudence is not a useful ‘concept’, the next question is whether, in theory, conventional prudence can be considered a desirable property of financial reporting, deserving of a place in the Framework; in other words, is there a case for delaying the recognition of gains under conditions of uncertainty? It is worth re-emphasising that there are two very different reasons why net assets might be understated (Watts, 2003; EFRAG et al., 2013). On the one hand, there may be a deliberate accounting understatement of economic gains by management, perhaps to reduce taxable profit or to minimise the risk of regulatory intervention. This might be described as misrepresentation, with the effect that net asset values are artificially depressed. From the perspective of the usefulness of financial reporting to investors in the reporting entity, there is little reason, if any, to view this bias as desirable. On the other hand, however, there is a more subtle context within which the non-recognition of certain economic gains can be seen as being, on balance, a desirable property of financial reporting. This is when it arises as a result of a cautious approach, whereby the inherent uncertainty of expected economic gains leads to their recognition being delayed for the time being, until they become more certain and verifiable. The understatement of net assets in this context is argued to be economically valuable and desirable, because it contributes to what is termed the ‘contracting’ function of financial reporting (Watts, 2006; Göx and Wagenhofer, 2009; Kothari et al., 2010; Lambert, 2010; Shivakumar, 2013; Mora and Walker, 2015). While commonly used in the research literature (and so repeated here), the term ‘contracting’ is actually somewhat unhelpful in the context of the Framework. Importantly, a ‘contracting’ explanation doesn’t actually require there to be a contract in use at all. The language of ‘contracting’ is used in the research literature to describe engaging in mutually beneficial economic activity. It is not used in the same sense that the IASB would use the term. The reason that this is important is that the literature’s use of the term is consistent with the remit of the IASB, while the IASB’s notion of contracting is not. To dismiss the contracting concept because it is being used differently would be to miss the point.3 In brief, the case for conventional prudence rests upon the interaction of two characteristics that commonly exist in the practical context within which financial reporting to investors takes place. It is noteworthy that neither of these 3 The Preface to IFRS explicitly identifies the purpose of financial reporting in terms of decision-relevance for (primarily) investors, and not in terms of providing data for contracting purposes. This position has been restated as recently as 2014, as follows (IASB, 2014, para. 45): “General purpose reports are often referred to in contracts between banks and their business customers ... It is not the responsibility of the IASB to meet the objectives of these other bodies.” Yet this private characterisation of contracting is unduly narrow in the context of prudence, and the underlying concept also applies much more broadly to the financial reporting environment. The argument is that the objective of providing decisionuseful information to investors should not be presumed, in an agency setting, to imply that the ‘unbiased’ reporting of net asset values is realistic. In effect, the equity investment decision is understood as a further manifestation of a contracting setting, where there are a large number of principals, each holding an equity investment contract of the same type, and each therefore having a common interest in conventionally prudent, general-purpose financial statements. characteristics is adequately captured in the Framework, leading to a ‘blind spot’ with respect to the conceptual case for conventional prudence. The characteristics are as follows: (1) Uncertainty in measurement, and the passage of time. While the Framework acknowledges the presence of uncertainty, and the associated need for estimation, it does not acknowledge that uncertain estimates cannot in principle be verified, making them different in nature from observable amounts (Barker and McGeachin, 2013). Equally, the role of the passage of time in this context is not discussed in the Framework (except for an indirect mention in para. 2.31, the purpose of which is to downplay verifiability). In practice, amounts that are uncertain at one point in time (such as provisions) will eventually become certain with the passage of time (for example, as provisions are settled). There is therefore a trade-off in financial reporting between verifiability and timeliness: there could be early (timely) recognition of items in the form of uncertain estimates, or else delayed recognition of those items in the form of amounts that have become known and verifiable. (2) Asymmetry of information and of economic incentives between management and investors. While the Framework acknowledges the role of financial reporting in ‘reducing the information gap’ between reporting entities and investors, the Framework does not address the ‘principal-agent’ problem, whereby management may exploit their informational advantage if their economic interests are best served by reporting information that differs from that ideally received by investors. It is in the interaction between these two factors that the case for conventional prudence arises. Specifically, when the measurement of balance sheet amounts is uncertain, there arises the trade-off between verifiability and timeliness. The question arising in that context is why investors (‘principals’) should trust information reported by preparers of accounts (‘agents’) if those preparers benefit from reporting ‘good’ news, if they have greater access to underlying data, and if the information that they report is unverifiable and therefore unreliable. The answer is that investors would be more likely to trust the information if uncertain economic gains were excluded. And if trust is established in this way, then investors become more willing to invest, meaning that more economic activity is likely to take place. Consider what happens if IFRS requires conventionally prudent accounting. If, in this context, a company seeks to issue equity or debt, then the application of conventional prudence means that the company will in effect be committing to excluding uncertain gains from future net assets. This is reassuring to the potential investor, making him or her more likely to be willing to invest. This is because the exclusion of uncertain gains implies constraints on management exploiting their information asymmetry in order to further their own economic incentives at the expense of those of investors (for example, high bonus payments could be justified by high reported profits, even if those profits were nothing more than estimates made up by the managers themselves). This exclusion of uncertain gains give the accounts greater information credibility than would otherwise be the case, while also enabling an earlier opportunity for active intervention by investors in the event of unforeseen adverse outcomes.4 Conventional prudence is thereby economically efficient (value-creating), because it enables mutually beneficial economic activity that would otherwise not take place.5 A couple of simple examples from IFRS can be used to illustrate the argument. The first is that the need for reliable measurement is emphasised more heavily in IFRS with respect to assets than liabilities. In IAS 38, for example, it is asserted that, for some internally-generated intangible assets, it is not possible to determine reliably either cost (para. 49) or future economic benefits (para. 51), meaning that such assets should not be recognised. In the cases of research (para. 54) and brands (para. 64), there is explicit prohibition of capitalisation. Yet, without explanation, the exact opposite conclusion is reached in IAS 37, where measurability is presumed for provisions: ‘except in extremely rare cases, an entity will be able to determine a range of possible outcomes and can therefore make an estimate of the obligation that is sufficiently reliable to use in recognising a provision’ (para. 25). The difference here is not in measurability but in desired recognition outcome, with uncertain economic losses being recognised while uncertain economic gains are excluded. The second example is the accounting treatment of a lawsuit under IAS 37, where a liability of uncertain amount is typically recognised in the accounts of the defendant, while even with no difference at all in either the amount under consideration or the associated uncertainty, an asset is typically not recognised in the accounts of the plaintiff. This is again an application of conventional prudence, of differential verifiability, whereby estimates of liabilities (and thereby losses) are recognised, but not estimates of assets (and thereby gains). This perspective also has implications for the stewardship role of financial reporting, or – as the Framework describes in para. 1.22 how ‘management has discharged its responsibilities.’ The purpose of the financial statements in holding management accountable to shareholders can be interpreted as supporting the existence of shareholding contracts, both ex ante in providing confidence that the financial statements will provide information that will enable shareholders to intervene or sell on a timely basis, and ex post in subsequently providing the information that enables that control to be exercised. Note here the weakness in ignoring incentive asymmetry, and in allowing management to provide their own, uncertain estimates of economic gains. 5 There is an assumption that the benefits here outweigh any disinformation resulting from the delayed recognition of unverifiable gains. 4 As the examples chosen here are taken from the actual requirements of IFRS, they serve not only to illustrate the application of conventional prudence, but also to enable two additional observations. First, they illustrate that conventional prudence exists in practice already in IFRS, with the implication that it would be anomalous for it not to exist also in concept (Barker and McGeachin, 2015). While the Basis argues (para. BC 2.10) that prudence ‘works both ways (so that assets and liabilities are neither overstated nor understated)’ there is of course greater concern in practice about one way, rather than the other. Second, these examples accord with conventional accounting practice, and therefore with the instincts of those who objected to the absence of prudence in the 2013 DP. (Arguably, the examples also illustrate the instincts of the IASB itself when it operates at the level of specific recognition and measurement issues in individual standards.) These two additional observations perhaps highlight that the conceptual argument given above does not need to be fully articulated in order for its conclusions to be felt instinctively. Instead, in these examples of actual IASB practices which are aligned with the intuition and experience of many of the IASB’s stakeholders, the above theory can be seen simply as a formalisation, as an underlying explanation, for generally accepted accounting practice. In the next section, we consider briefly some practical objections that have been raised to the adoption of the concept of conventional prudence in the Framework. 5. Reasons not to (re)introduce Conventional Prudence? This section reviews, in no particular order, arguments that have sometimes been used in favour of excluding prudence from the Framework. In each case, the argument is expressed briefly in italics, and a response is then given immediately after. a. Prudence is not a practically useful concept because it is too vague. In particular, it does not help with the question of how much prudence should be applied in any given situation. Many concepts are open to this same criticism. We do not, for example, have a scale for the measurement of relevance. Moreover, it should be remembered that the case for prudence arises in the context of uncertainty, and for this reason it would be conceptually inconsistent to dismiss prudence because it is imprecise in application. Rather, it is a necessarily vague concept, with this uncertainty being the reason for its existence in the first place; this is not a reason for exclusion from the Framework. In practice, whether and how to apply prudence becomes a matter of judgement at the standards level, and the role of the Framework is simply to set out the underlying concept. b. Prudence is not applied in all accounting standards but instead only in certain instances. It should therefore not be in the Framework but instead should be applied as needed at the standards level. If prudence is a concept, to be considered in the development of any given standard, then it belongs in the Framework. Not all components of the Framework are relevant to the consideration of all aspects of all standards, but what all content of the Framework should have in common is being part of the conceptual foundation for accounting practice. Moreover, consistent application of a concept across any given number of accounting standards requires a clear benchmark against which that consistency can be determined and evaluated, and the place for such a conceptual benchmark is the Framework. c. If net assets are understated in the current period, financial performance will be overstated in future periods, which cannot be described as prudent. If gains are excluded when they are uncertain, then inevitably they will be reported in a future period when they become certain. If the test of prudence is that gains are recognised only once they can be verified, then this can (and should) be described as prudent. Note that at no point are net assets over-stated. The key question is whether investors would prefer a measure of financial performance that they can trust, as opposed to one that they cannot. d. If the Framework allows bias, and a departure from neutrality, then it acts as an open invitation for the manipulation and abuse of financial statements. There are two defences against this argument. First, it is up to the IASB how to use the Framework in setting standards, and it is in the application of standards themselves that accounting policy decisions are made by preparers. Second, conventional prudence can in any event be defined as consistent with neutrality and unbiased, for the reasons described above. e. Prudence would result in the prohibition of unrealised gains (BC 2.14). There is no reason for this to be the case. The definition of (conventional) prudence rests not upon realisation but upon uncertainty. An unrealised gain need not be uncertain. f. Prudence would permit an entity to measure an asset at an amount that is less than an unbiased estimate. (BC 2.14) This objection misses the point with respect to uncertainty. If an amount is uncertain, then it is misleading to think in terms of an ‘unbiased estimate’. The nature of uncertainty is such that there is insufficient information with which to make an unbiased estimate. A more accurate description would be ‘management’s own guess’. The question then becomes one of whether an unreliable number made up by management is preferable to delaying recognition until there is greater certainty. 6. Recommendations The recommendations below follow from the discussion above: a. The treatment of prudence in the ED (IASB Prudence) should be dropped. This is because i. it serves no useful purpose that is not already served by the concept of neutrality ii. it risks confusion, not least because it is an uncommon interpretation of the concept of prudence b. In place of the current treatment of prudence in the Framework, a definition such as the following should be used: Prudence is the application of a higher threshold of verifiability for the recognition of assets or gains than for liabilities or losses. c. The above definition should be supplemented with a clear explanation in the main body of the Framework of the context within which the definition applies (uncertain gains) d. 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