The Rising American
Electorate
A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL
INFLUENCE
Presented by Celinda Lake
President of Lake Research Partners
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Summary
2
 The first decade of the millennium was marked by the growth
of the Rising American Electorate (RAE), and that growth
was mainly driven by unmarried women and Latinos.
 However, despite their growth in the population, unmarried
women and the RAE have yet to match their strength in the
overall population with strength at the ballot box.
 A plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not
registered, and this is the first and most fundamental barrier
to voting and becoming engaged in the political process.
 With targeted efforts that provide information and strategic
messaging that speaks to the highly personal issue concerns
of these voters, we can bring them back and rebuild much of
the 2008 surge.
3
Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer
numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to their size
(62 percent increase).
Numbers in the Adult Citizen Population
2000
2010
+8.3 million, 19% increase
Unmarried Women
44,782,087
53,106,959
+5.9 million, 15% increase
18-29 Year Olds
39,331,698
45,219,899
+2.4 million, 11% increase
African Americans
22,409,056
24,782,189
+8.1 million, 62% increase
Latinos
13,158,725
2000 and 2010 November CPS Supplement
21,284,881
Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to being
registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote eligible population
but less than half of registered voters.
Share of Population vs. Share of Registered Voters
Share of Adult Citizen Population
Share of Registered Voters
52.8%
47.1%
25.2%
RAE
23.6%
Unmarried women
4
In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since 2008.
We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this backward shift
toward lower representation among voters shows deterioration among
these groups.
Share of 2008 Voters vs. Share of 2010 Voters
Share of 2008 Voters
46.6%
41.9%
Share of 2010 Voters
23.2%
RAE
21.2%
Unmarried women
5
6
Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—adult
citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to voting, so groups
need to start there when trying to engage these groups in 2012.
Voting and Registration among RAE Groups
Voted
38.9%
20,648,401
22.8%
12,115,424
Registered but Didn't Vote
36.8%
50.8%
19.2%
25.3%
38.3%
Unmarried
women
20,343,134
22,955,130
18-29 year
olds
9,120,311
48.4%
10,302,628
20.4%
4,335,943
31.2%
6,646,31
4,753,732
11,434,743
44.0%
23.9%
Not Registered
10,908,146
10,830,026
African
Americans
Current Population Survey-November 2010
Latinos
7
Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered to
vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult citizens.
Voting and Registration among RAE Groups
Voted
Registered but Didn't Vote
Not Registered
27.0%
41.9%
46,647,368
16.9%
24,471,262
22.0%
56.1%
36.1%
40,194,018
Rising American Electorate
Current Population Survey-November 2010
Non-RAE
When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate votes 8
consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats.
2010 Generic House Vote among RAE Groups
Democrat
+28
63%
35%
+25
61%
36%
Republican
+17
+83
+28
91%
63%
57%
40%
35%
8%
RAE Total
Unmarried women
18-29 year olds
African Americans
Latinos
LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters
9
The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of just 9
points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting Democratic, even
in what was an undeniably Republican year overall.
2010 Generic House Vote by Gender/Marital Status
Democrat
-21
59
38
Married men
-11
43
54
Married women
Republican
+25
+11
54
43
Unmarried men
61
36
Unmarried women
LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters
10
Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are especially
merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a sizeable portion of
voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.
Highest Concentration of
Unmarried Women
Highest Concentration of RAE
New York
New Mexico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Maryland
Illinois
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Connecticut
North Carolina
New Mexico
California
Texas
Maryland
Mississippi
New York
Nevada
Georgia
Louisiana
Florida
Recommendations
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 2008 was a new high water mark for unmarried women and RAE
turnout, so looking for those voters who have voted before is a
first step to engaging these groups.
 Focus efforts in states with high concentrations of unmarried
women or RAE eligible voters. You will get more bang for your
buck.
 It’s not enough to ask these people to vote—we need to reengage
them on the issues, specifically their issues.
 Remember that in a close election, all groups can have an impact
by changing the make- up of the electorate. Connecting with
unmarried women and RAE voters and bringing them back
into the polling place is as important as trying to persuade the
voters you already think might show up.