The how and why of voting in American elections

Larry Sabato, The Crystal Ball

Would the results of the 2012 election have been different if EVERYONE voted? Do American political parties really want everyone to vote?
Will turnout in the 2014 midterms be up or down from 2010?

Voter
Behavior
What has changed (if any) since your text was published?
1. Find in the text where Patterson discusses the information on your slide. (page #)
2. Is Patterson still accurate? Why or why not? Cite textual evidence. (You may also use the “Changing Voter” article.
3. Finally, make sure you can explain your slide to the class.
4. Why is your slide (AP VOCAB WORDS) important to voter behavior?
5.
Let’s go!

Voter
Behavior
Campaign Volunteer
Protest
11%
Activists
56%
Cast Presidential
Ballots
(avg. since 1960)
Vs.
22%
Inactive
Civil
Society
68%
Affiliated w/
1+ nonpolitical organizations

Voter
Behavior
Rise of Independent Voters =
DEALIGNMENT with political parties

Voter
Behavior
Straight Ticket OR Split Ticket?

Voter
Behavior
• “Forward Looking”
• Issue-
Focused
• “Backward Looking”
• Vote for the incumbent if…

Voter
Behavior
Divided
Government
Source:
New York Times
Nov 2008

Voter
Behavior
CRITICAL ELECTION =
Electoral REALIGNMENT

Voter
Behavior http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm

Voter
Behavior
Rise of Independent Voters =
DEALIGNMENT with political parties

Voter
Behavior

Voter
Behavior
Factor: the Gender Gap

Voter
Behavior
Youth
Vote

Voter
Behavior

Voter
Behavior
VEP = Voting Eligible Population
VAP = Voting Age Population
58.2%
VEP
“United States Election Project” @George Mason University http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html
Minnesota = 75.7%? How did they do that?

Voter
Behavior

Voter
Behavior
African Americans Voted at a Higher Rate than
Whites in the 2012
Election — A FIRST reported by the Census
Bureau Reports

Voter
Behavior

Voter
Behavior
In the United States, eligibility to vote:
I. requires the voter to be registered.
II. requires the voter to be at least 18 years old
III. Is determined by federal, not state, laws
IV. mandates that the voter be a natural-born citizen
(A)I only
(B)III and IV only
(C)I, II, and IV only
(D)II, III, and IV only
(E) I, II, III and IV

Voter
Behavior
Of the following groups, which would be the least likely to vote?
(A)College graduates
(B)Senior citizens
(C)High income earners
(D)Middle aged [45-64]
(E) High School Drop-outs

Voter
Behavior
Which of the following is NOT an explanation for low voter turnout in the United States?
(A)Voters find it difficult to register to vote.
(B)Media coverage is uninformative to most voters.
(C)Most Americans have high political efficacy.
(D)Negative campaigning alienates voters.
(E) Nonvoters do not believe that their vote matters.