Presidential Election Campaigns Congressional vs. Presidential Elections Congressional (Midterm) Turnout: Lower Reasons: Less competitive Less media coverage Perceived lower stakes Other differences: No term limits High % re-elected Presidential Turnout: Higher Reasons: More competitive President gets blame or credit for everything that happens in America More advertising and media excitement Two term limit Presidential Election Process Step 1: Nomination Each state has either: Caucus Primary Early voting states matter most; candidates concentrate their efforts there in the year before voting begins Early voting states: Iowa (Caucus) New Hampshire (Primary) South Carolina (Primary) Candidates accrue delegates to the National Convention Candidate must win a majority of all delegates to secure the nomination Presidential Elections Step 2: The Convention Select nominee (but winner is already known) Select VP nominee (chosen by president; rubber stamped by convention) Choice is often intended to “ balance the ticket” Tell the candidate’s story; “re-introduction” to the country Unify and motivate party by end of convention Step 3: The Campaign Candidate-Centered Campaigns Nominations: Party insiders have lost their power to control who is nominated Primary voters and caucus goers now determine a party’s nominee Political Organization: Parties’ monopoly of political organization has been destroyed by the rise of countless special interest groups and mass media. Mass Media: Party control of the media has vanished under a blizzard of competition. Voters get most of their information from the electronic mass media in 6-second sound bites on the network news and in 30-second spot commercials during campaigns. Campaign Strategy Tone Positive—build yourself up Negative—denunciate the opponent Theme— “Yes We Can!” Timing—unknown candidates campaign early Target—who is most likely to change their vote? Coalition Building Mobilize the Base Campaign Advertising Political ads affect how one feels about a candidate, can cause a greater interest in the election, and can change voters’ opinions Voters with less political knowledge are more likely to be influenced by political advertising Negative Advertising (“Attack Ads”) Political advertising can often be negative. Research has shown that most voters dislike ads that attack another candidate and that most topics in these ads are unfair. Most voters do not trust political ads BUT: It has been found that those who watch or hear political ads remember more about the negative ads than the positive ads Effects of Negative Advertising A voter is most likely going to believe a negative ad, even if it may be false, if he or she dislikes the targeted candidate. These ads reinforce what the voter thinks about his or her preferred candidate. The Electoral College Allotment of Electoral votes Votes = # of members of congress for a state Minimum is 3 Amendment #23 = DC gets 3 538 total votes- 270 needed to win CA has highest total (55) Allocation of Electors Candidate with most popular votes (only need a plurality) wins all of that state’s votes Campaigns concentrate on large, competitive states *Swing States* Alternatives to the Electoral College Direct election: every person’s vote counts as much as every other person’s District system: candidate who wins congressional district wins the district’s electoral vote Proportional system: candidate gets same percentage of electoral votes as popular votes in each state Electoral vote “bump” to popular vote winner