CONSUMPTION WILL LEAD TO RESOURCE SCARCITY EVENTUALLY
– WE ARE ENTERING THIS ERA NOW BUT ARE IN COMPLETE
DENIAL ABOUT IT. RARE EARTH’S ARE THE FIRST INDICATION.
What are the manifestations and solutions?
Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models
Requires some component of morality based decision making
Requires public policy based on avoiding the worse possible
outcome
1..
The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of “cheap” fossil fuels as our energy
foundation
Solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think
big
The Public needs to become a lot more energy and climate literate in order for
initiatives to succeed
Big E or Little e 
Globalization and Change
Post WW II
US = 5* (China+India)
Japan + Germany = 0.5*US
(China + India) = 3* US
New Players = Indonesia, Mexico,
Turkey
Japan + Germany = 0.2*US
Turkey > Japan, France,
Germany

Our enormously productive economy demands
that we make consumption our way of life, that
we convert the buying and use of goods into
rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions,
our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The
measure of social status, of social acceptance,
of prestige, is now to be found in our
consumptive patterns. The very meaning and
significance of our lives today is expressed in
consumptive terms.
sustainability
Accelerated Climate Change
CONSUMPTION 

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LNG Importation
development
“Clean Coal”
Fast Breeder
Reactors
NG Fracking (steel
problem)




Fastest gateway to
energy economy
Leads to Growth of
GDP
Accelerates Global
CO2 Deposition
Reinforces BAU –
mine the planet
Economics not sustainability awareness

Ocean Gyres
Giant diffuse collection
points of the plastic waste
of humanity. Takes many
years for individual bottle
cap to find itself here.
Cheap plastic crap
here
The WalMart Express
Factor of 10 Growth in just 25 years! This is the principle
driver of Climate Change
12% Annual Growth Rate last
3 years
Need more Super Container
Fleets and Ports to Scale
2015: MSC
Oscar 19924
TEU!
Breaking out of BAU





Consume less
Drive less
Plan ahead
Invest in Renewable
Energy infrastructure
Have long term
governmental goals

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Instill consumer morality
based decision making
Requires actual
leadership
Requires world
cooperation – one
planet
Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?
Business world analogy
The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
There isn't any real need for the change
The change is going to make it harder for them to meet
their needs
The risks seem to outweigh the benefits
They don't think they have the ability to make the
change
They believe the change will fail
Change process is being handled improperly by
management
The change is inconsistent with their values
2. The change is going to make it
harder for them to meet their needs
Reducing consumption and consumption
fossil fuel based energy is too hard to do
and will significantly compromise my
current lifestyle. Furthermore, since
there is not evidence that compels me to
make such a change, Fuck it …
3. The risks seem to outweigh the benefits
My short term economic
security is far more
important than long term
benefit for the planetary
ecosystem
4. They don't think they have the ability to
make the change
I am an individual, what
can I do that will actually
make any impact?
5. They believe the change will fail
Since there is no evidence that
changing our consumption habits
will have any positive effect then
any such mandate to change will
surely fail and have significant
negative consequences.
6. Change process is being handled
improperly by management
We don't trust our government to
make a fair set of regulations.
We don’t trust scientific advisors
to the government to be
unbiased. All policy
recommendations serve only
self-interests. There is not gov’t
for the people anymore …
Certainty
GOD
HUMANS
Entitlement
HUMANS
Aarogance
NATURE
Wisdom
Super
Connectivity
Of Atoms
Nova
TREES
ROCKS
Enlightenment
Humility
TREES
ROCKS
Disconnected States
Everything Is Connected to
Everything
7. The change is inconsistent with their values
Of course it is!
We are not part of nature; we control
nature; nature does not control us.
We are not in partnership with nature.
The Aboriginal world view of
connectivity is bullshit. Humans are
special.
But Solution Space Exists!
Solar PV
 Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric
 Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
 Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain
and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids)
 Biomass Co-Generation
 OTEC; Gulf Current
 Live in Ambient Partnership with Nature

Barriers to Renewables
High capital cost; long payback times
 Lack of any vision or out of the box
thinking on truly large scale projects
 NIMBY reactions to anything and
everything makes implementation difficult
 Technology uncertainty
 Grid Limitations
 Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of
Renewables
1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
4. MW output versus production time scale
to bring on line (months/MW)
5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt)
6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per
KWH)
To Evaluate Competing Electricity
Generating Technologies
 Develop an internally consistent indexing
system for the 6 attributes listed previously
(the dow jones is an index)
 Use real world data and real world physics to
best determine the values
 Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created)
 Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the
following exercise
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1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1
2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1
3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW
4. Time ~10 MW per month
5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost
6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH
Index
Solar Wind
Waves Biomass
Land
1
2.5
1
.2
Material 1
3
.2
1
Jobs
1
1
1
5
Time
1
3
.5
.5
Capital
1
2.5
.5
.5
Level
1
3
.75
1
Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6)
Highest Index is Best
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Solar = 7
Waves =4.75
Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)
Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and low
Levelized costs)
In general, wind is more scalable than Solar
and wind always beats Solar PV

Sonoran Desert Project:
300,000 square km @
2% coverage yields
100,000 MW
Lake Michigan Wind
project down North South
Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km
box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW
turbines: 180,000 MW
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100
MW vertical Wind Turbines:
Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125
square km. This produces 1TW of
electricity and effectively replaces
all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
Be Optimistic and ProActive
• Change can occur when consumers are
properly informed.
• Technological solutions exist to make
significant impact if deployed now
• Consume Less
• Technology is rapidly improving
• We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid
You have three choices:
Practice BAU
Give UP
Make the
Wise
Choice
Proactive: Educate your Peers