2011
Rafał Trzciński
Example from enterprise
support in Poland
Impact Evaluation Seminar
Warsaw, 12.12.2011
Purpose of the evaluation
 Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.
 Measure covered by the study:Improvement of competitiveness
of SMEs through investments (Measure 2.3) implemented within
Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the
Competitiveness of Enterprises, years 2004-2006 (SOP-ICE).
 Measure 2.3 was aimed at improvement of competitiveness of
Polish SMEs through modernisation of their product offer and
their technology base.
 Average value of the subsidy amounted to PLN 532 thousand.
Impact evaluation problem
Factor x1
Effects
SOP-ICE
SELECTION
Factor x
BIAS
?
Problem:
low
competitiveness
of enterprises
2
The approach
 Counterfactual framework -> Q: what would have
happened in the absence of the intervention?
 Quasi-experimental approach was chosen.
 Control group was selected from unsuccessful
applicants.
 Method used to reduce the selection bias:
Propensity Score Matching.
Data sets used in the evaluation
 PARP data sets (databases of all applicants, with
employment +9);
 19 covariates were controlled, such as: age,
revenues, size, legal form, assets, the use of
other subsidies, etc.
 Central Statistical Office data sets (Report on
revenues, costs and financial results and the cost
of fixed assets);
 31 outcome variables were estimated, such as:
net revenues from sales, employment,
expenditures, profits, etc.
Propensity Score Matching
(1-1; nearest neighbour)
Control group
Unsuccessful
applicants
Beneficiaries
ps= 0,8
ps= 0,1
ps= 0,4
ps= 0,5
ps= 0,9
ps= 0,6
ps= 0,2
ps= 0,1
ps= 0,3
ps= 0,2
ps= 0,01
ps= 0,3
ps= 0,8
ps= 0,9
ps= 0,4
Selection bias
Variable
Treated
(mean
value)
Untreated
Control
(mean
group
value)
(mean value)
The standardized
difference in
percent (before
matching)
The standardized
difference in
percent (after
matching)
10,31
10,41
10,13
-1,12
2,28
Revenues (in total)
Revenue growth before the
programe (comparing 2 periods)
50409,24
74320,05
62275,93
-4,74
-2,35
0,72
0,59
0,73
26,72
-2,35
Assets (in toatal)
Assets growth before the programe
(comparing 2 periods)
32676,70
75478,18
30319,08
-2,78
0,15
0,70
0,60
0,70
20,12
-0,35
Value of deminimis
13802,67
9826,17
11593,88
5,22
2,90
70,34
44,77
71,15
47,44
-1,50
0,66
0,57
0,66
18,88
-0,46
Difference in employment
7,29
4,20
7,73
17,62
-2,49
Percentage of women
0,27
0,33
0,27
-25,82
0,98
Number of contracts signed in Phare
1,15
0,45
1,06
53,95
6,87
15502,53
5301,36
13934,88
46,73
7,18
Application in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1
0,06
0,02
0,06
21,45
2,77
Contract in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1
0,04
0,01
0,03
20,24
2,60
Contract in SOP-HRD Measure 2.3
0,08
0,04
0,09
15,92
-2,28
Credit
0,70
0,53
0,68
34,68
4,86
Project area
…
…
…
…
…
Region
…
…
…
…
…
Legal form
…
…
…
…
…
PKD code
…
…
…
…
…
Age of the company
Total employment
Employment growth before the
programme
Value of signed contracts in Phare
Date of measurement
80%
70%
2004
60%
50%
2007
40%
30%
2008
2008
2003
4 years (on average)
2009
2009
1 year
2010
20%
2006
10%
2007
0%
PRE
POST+1
POST+2
Employment and wages costs
Wages costs (in PLN thousand)
Average employment (in FTEs)
130
125 -0,6%
125
5,000
124
120
4,000
115
3,500
114
37,8%
110
105
90
85
112
24,4%
100
95
-2,0%
4,374 6,7%
4,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
4,065
3,852 5,5%
80,1%
2,429
4,666
64,7%
2,339
1,500
92
91
1,000
500
80
0
PRE
POST+1
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +14 FTEs
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 511thousand
Net revenues from sales
45,000
40,000
41,894
3,0%
40,683
35,000
68,5%
30,000
25,000
20,000
24,140
33,195
2,6%
34,073
54,2%
21,530
15,000
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 5 211 thousand
Operating expenses
45,000
37,844
40,000
39,005
3,1%
35,000
70,4%
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
22,205
20,132
31,927
31,066
2,8%
54,3%
10,000
5,000
0
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 5 006 thousand
Losses – scale of the phenomenon
Loss on sales
25%
24,5%
18.8%
20%
58,7%
20.7%
25%
19.2%
20%
40,2%
13.7%
15%
15.4%
11.9%
10%
23.5%
34,3%
15%
5%
Net loss
114,0%
10%
164,9%
5%
5.8%
6.4%
11.9%
15.4%
29,7%
363,9%
2.6%
0%
0%
PRE
POST+1
beneficiaries (N=763)
Impact: +3,3%
POST+2
control group (N=763)
PRE
POST+1
beneficiaries (N=763)
Impact: zero
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Losses
Loss on sales (in PLN thousand)
Net loss (in PLN thousand)
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
534
113,5% 1,141
426
PRE
101,6%
66,5%
1,428
858 3,1% 1,177
POST+1
POST+2
2,000
1,000
0
4,795
40,4%
3,416
565,2%
653
514
PRE
2,416
269,9%
POST+1
-33,8%
1,600
POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=42; NPOST+1=102; NPOST+2=131)
beneficiaries (NPRE=19; NPOST+1=81; NPOST+2=102)
control group (NPRE=81; NPOST+1=121; NPOST+2=145)
control group (NPRE=46; NPOST+1=92; NPOST+2=123)
Impact: +PLN 360 thousand Impact: +PLN 3 335 thousand
Profits
Profit on sales
Net profit
5,000
5,000
4,000
3,409
64,5%
3,000
2,000
1,000
2,073
2,746
11,0% 3,784
6,6% 2,926
68,8%
1,627
4,000
2,000
1,000
0
2,946
2,875 2,5%
72,0%
2,311
3,000
1,672
1,249
84,9%
-1,5%
2,275
0
PRE
POST+1
POST+2
PRE
POST+1
POST+2
beneficiaries (NPRE=721; NPOST+1=661; NPOST+2=632)
beneficiaries (NPRE=741; NPOST+1=681; NPOST+2=661)
control group (NPRE=682; NPOST+1=642; NPOST+2=618)
control group (NPRE=717; NPOST+1=670; NPOST+2=639)
Impact: +PLN 412 thousand
Impact: +PLN 248 thousand
Asset Turnover
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.96
-16,4%
1.92
-21,1%
1.64
-3,5%
1.58
1.60
1.51
1.40
-5,0%
1.44
1.20
1.00
PRE
POST+1
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: -0,10
Total expenditures on tangible fixed assets in use
Expenditures of enterprises on machinery and
Total expenditures...
2,500
2,274
-2,1%
technical equipment
2,226
2,500
2,000
2,000
98,7%
1,500
1,000
500
17,8%
1,144
48,3%
1,516
1,500
500
0
0
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
1,4%
91,3%
1,000
1,287
868
PRE
1,203
629
8,8%
32,7%
442
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
1,220
587
638
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 434 thousand Impact: +PLN 395 thousand
Liabilities
Long-term liabilities: credits and loans
Short-term liabilities: credits and loans
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,323
2,000
5,2%
1,828 0,0%
115,1%
2,443
1,828
1,500
1,000
500
1,080
2,500
2,000
1,500
98,2%
1,799
1,566
500
1,521 2,9%
171,9%
1,000
923
2,015
12,0%
160,4%
662
584
0
0
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 458 thousand
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 372 thousand
Export
Net income from sales of products for
Net income from sales of goods and
export
materials for export
8,000
6,965
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
-1,9%
6,830
5,579
90,4%
3,659
8,000
95,6%
-18,6%
4,544
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,853
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
0
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
641
95,6%
537
47,9%
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
1,255
35,0%
794
POST+1
1,694
5,3%  837
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 1 479 thousand Impact: -PLN 753 thousand
Value of purchases in total imports
7,000
6,059
6,000
83,5%
5,000
2,000
6,066
4,425
4,000
3,000
0,1%
4,402
-0,5%
3,301
50,3% 
2,945
1,000
0
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 1 307 thousand
Structure of imports
Import of raw materials and semifinished
5000
products for production
3965
4000
2000
1000
2290
46,1% 
1587
5000
4057
4000
2,3%
73,2%
3000
Import of goods intended for resale
3000
2318 -5,2% 2197
2000
1000
47,2% 
1282
9,5% 
1662 -6,4%
2067
1556
89,0%
880
0
1888
0
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: +PLN 1 158 thousand Impact: -PLN 109 thousand
Current ratio
2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
1,7%
1.63
1.55
4,2%
1.66
-0,6%
1,4%
1.62
1.65
1.64
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
PRE
beneficiaries (N=763)
POST+1
POST+2
control group (N=763)
Impact: -0,07
Summary
 Main positive impacts:
 Employment and wages.
 Export and import (production activity).
 Profits.
 Expenditures on tangible fixed assets in use
(machinery and technical equipment).
 Main negative impacts, or no impact:
 Productivity of the enterprises.
 Losses and their amount.
 Liquidity of the enterprises.
More on this…
www.parp.gov.pl/index/more/24238
Thank you for your attention!
Polish Agency for Enterprise Development
81/83 Pańska Street
00-834 Warsaw, Poland
Tel + 48 (22) 432 80 80
Fax + 48 (22) 432 86 20
+ 48 (22) 432 84 04
Infoline: + 48 (22) 432 89 91/92/93
www.parp.gov.pl