Cooperation with the IMF The IMF approved on November 19 a USD 2.1 bn Stand-By-Arrangement with Iceland based on an economic programme outlined in a Letter of Intent. Iceland is to receive additional loans of USD 3 bn from the Nordic countries, Russia and Poland. The programme was formulated by the Government and Central Bank of Iceland in close consultation with the IMF. The programme focuses on three main areas: Stabilizing the exchange rate and rebuild confidence in monetary policy. Review and revise fiscal policy with the aim of maintaining a manageable level of public sector debt and debt service in spite of lost revenues and increased expenditures. Bank sector restructuring and reform of the insolvency framework in accordance with transparent, internationally recognized principles. The programme outlines a number of quantitative and qualitative performance criteria that the authorities have to fulfill. These focus mainly on monetary tightening (raising the policy rate and curtailing central bank lending), fiscal consolidation (including medium-term plans and a floor on changes in the net financial balance) and timing and methods regarding the banking sector restructuring. March 19, 2016 Nafn fyrirlestrar (Edit/Breyta - Header/Footer) 1 Government Policy The government’s economic policy is based on the economic programme outlined with the IMF. Recent actions include: Approving the 2009 budget within targets set in the programme. Work in progress to establish and Asset Management Company that will take over companies facing restructuring by the banks of special social or economic importance to Iceland. Work on medium-term fiscal consolidation in train to be approved by mid-2009. March 19, 2016 Nafn fyrirlestrar (Edit/Breyta - Header/Footer) 2 Why did the banks collapse? The fall of Lehman Brothers in September caused extensive problems for the Icelandic banks. The banks had grown extremely rapidly since 2004. Their foreign currency lending had increased exponentially. In September/October, international credit markets virtually closed. The Central Bank was unable to serve as the banking sector’s lender of last resort as support was mainly needed in foreign currency. With liabilities of more than 10X Iceland’s GDP, the government of Iceland was unable to give the banks support to a similar extent currently being done in other countries. March 19, 2016 Nafn fyrirlestrar (Edit/Breyta - Header/Footer) 3 Foreign expertise sought The Government decided to seek assistance from the IMF immediately after the onset of the financial crises as the enormity of the crises became clear. A “fact finding mission” from the IMF was in Iceland as the banks were taken over by the FME. Negotiations started quickly with an agreement and an economic programme finalized by October 24. Negotiations over deposit insurance for branches of Icelandic banks abroad delayed the process of attracting needed additional financing for the programme. Financial support sought from Iceland’s closest neighbours and friends, with the largest bulk of assistance coming from the other Nordic countries, in addition to Russia, Poland and the Faroe Islands providing funding. Reputed international experts hired to advise on restructuring of the banking sector (Mats Josefsson from Sweden) and review of the financial market legal framework (Kaarlo Jännäri from Finland). Assistance received from reputable international advisory firms, i.e. JP Morgan, McKinsey and Co. and Oliver Wyman. Deloitte is valuating the banks. Additional assistance sought to strenghten international best practices for the Icelandic economy and financial assistance from IMF experts and use made of OECD expertise. March 19, 2016 Nafn fyrirlestrar (Edit/Breyta - Header/Footer) 4 Foreign expertise sought The ISK went into a free-fall in early October as the financial crisis intensified. Currency stability the first priority: 90% of corporate debt in foreign currency, household debt largely index-linked or in foreign currency and foreign goods representing more than 1/3 of the consumer price index. Foreign investors hold around 400 bn.ISK, or 25% of GDP, in liquid ISK assets. Large-scale sales of these assets in a short period of time could result in a further shock to the currency market. The fall of the banking sector and subsequent currency market guidelines issued by the Central Bank (CB) caused the currency market to being initially divided into a domestic (on-shore) and a foreign (off-shore) currency markets. The CB conducted daily “on-shore” currency auctions for the domestic banks due to lack of other avenues to secure the payments system. New temporary currency controls were imposed on November 28, focussing on capital account transfers. These rules do not prevent current account transactions and were initiated in full cooperation with the IMF. The rules have since then been amended and certain excemptions given. IMF programme stipulates that the controls are to be lifted before the programme expires in November 2011. Other steps: CB raised policy rate to 18%. Policy rate will be lowered relatively quickly as soon as inflation and inflation expectations fall and currency stabilizes. CB restricts access to credit. Bolstered currency reserves used to minimize volatility. March 19, 2016 Nafn fyrirlestrar (Edit/Breyta - Header/Footer) 5