Leadership 0510
Leadership in Uncertain
Times
Peter Dickens, MTS
Director: Tyndale Centre for Leadership
pdickens@tyndale.ca
Heifetz on Leadership
Clarity of the Problem
Clear
Type I
Clarity of
the
Solution
Clear and
Available
Unclear and
Unavailable
Technical
Work
Unclear
Management and Leadership
Managers……
• Plan and budget
• Organize and staff
• Provide controls and
solve problems
Leaders……
• Set direction
• Align people with the
vision
• Motivate and and
inspire
Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point
Heifetz on Leadership
Clarity of the Problem
Clear
Clarity of
the
Solution
Clear and
Available
Unclear and
Unavailable
Unclear
Type I
Type IV
Technical
Work
Wishful
Thinking
Dogma
Type II
Type III
Technical/
Adaptive
Work
Highly
Adaptive
Work
Reflections on certainty
Many of us develop partial understandings
that we see as complete. The more certain we
feel of them, the more they limit our freedom
to think. We may have spent years building up
these certainties, and beneath the fear of
letting go of them is the fear of having
nothing underneath.
Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change
Residual Uncertainty
• If you want to develop better strategic choices
under conditions of uncertainty, you have to
understand the uncertainty you face
• Certainty is not binary
• Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best
possible analysis to separate the known from
the unknowable
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Levels 1 Uncertainty
•
•
Relatively clear view of
the future
One or two obvious
options
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Leadership Strategies
1. Traditional
•
•
•
SWOT
Benchmarking
Competency-based
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Summary of “Industrial” Leadership
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Framed by level 1 uncertainty
These industrial age leadership theories have been:
management-oriented
Focused on the leader
goal-achievement-dominated
male-oriented
utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective
Rationalistic
– Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century
Level 2 Uncertainty
1. Relatively clear view of
the future
2. Alternate futures
•
•
Mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
One will occur
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 2 Leadership Strategies
1. Traditional
2. Qualitative decision
analysis
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Leadership as Process
Leadership is process
whereby an individual
influences a group of
individuals to achieve a
common goal.
Peter Northouse. Leadership
Level 3 Uncertainty
1. Relatively clear view of
the future
2. Alternate futures
3. Range of futures
–
Not mutually exclusive
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 3 Leadership Strategies
1. Traditional
2. Qualitative decision
analysis
3. Decision tree/costbenefit analysis
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Level 3 Strategy
• Diversification
• Insurance
• A decision on where
you will place your
bets
Level 4 Uncertainty
1. Relatively clear view of
the future
2. Alternate futures
3. Range of futures
4. True ambiguity
–
The future is unknown
and unknowable
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water
–
Conditions are full of
surprises
– Complex systems tend
to produce novel
problems
– Conditions feature
events that are “messy”
and
– Events are often very
costly
Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty
• Constant change
• Collaborative focus
• Possibility –
orientation
• Complex systems
• Self-organizing
agents
Self-organizing Systems
•
•
•
•
Innumerable variables determine outcomes
Small changes can change everything
The whole emerges out from the parts
Direction is determined by emergence and the
participation of many people
• Individual or systems behavior is unknowable,
unpredictable, and uncontrollable
Leadership Strategies
1. Traditional
2. Qualitative decision
analysis
3. Decision tree/cost
benefit analysis
4. Work backwards
Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite
Working Backwards?
• Start with a strategy
• Is it aligned with our mission and values?
• What do we have to believe about the
future to support a defined strategy?
• Do we believe that is likely?
• Are we willing to bet on it?
Emerging Leadership Theory
Leadership is not a
position. To my
knowledge, a
promotion never made
anyone a leader.
Leadership is a fiduciary
calling.
Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.
Focus on Intent
Leadership is an
influence relationship
among leaders and
followers who intend
real changes that
reflect their mutual
purposes.
Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st
Century
Transformative Leadership
Transformative leadership
occurs when one or more
people engage with others
in such a way that leaders
and followers raise one
another to higher levels of
motivations and morality.
Burns. Transformative Leadership
Leadership as Service
Leadership begins with the
natural feeling that one wants
to serve, to serve first .... The
best test is: Do those served
grow as persons; do they, while
being served, become healthier,
wiser, freer, more autonomous,
or more likely to become
servants themselves?
Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.
Leadership and Action
Leadership means
initiating action
towards shared
values and
purpose.
Dick Couto
Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems
• Define the boundaries
• Invite diversity
• Create transforming
exchanges
• Serve the system
Reflection
• What does this
mean for your area
of ministry?
• What would you
have to embrace?
• What would you
have to let go of?