Foreign Exchange 1 TERMINOLOGIES Foreign Exchange: Any financial instrument that carries out payment from one currency to another currency. Currency: A system of money in general use in a particular country. For nearly 30 years following the world war-2nd, world currencies were maintained at a fixed ratio i.e. a system of fixed exchange rates, the system broke down in 1973 and was replaced by a mixture of fixed and floating exchange system. 2 TERMINOLOGIES Fixed Exchange Rate: The government of the a country officially declares that its currency is convertible into a fixed rate or amount of some other currency. Floating Exchange Rate: Under this system, the government possess no responsibility to declare that its currency is convertible into a fix amount of some other currency; Foreign currency exchange rate: The price of one country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency. • e.g. How many Japanese yen per U.S. dollar or how many dollars per yen? OR • How many Afs per U.S. dollars or how many dollars per Af. 3 Which currency is better for exchange? 4 TERMINOLOGIES Exchange control: Control on the movement on capital in and out of a country, some time impose when the country faces a shortage of foreign currency. Cross Rates: Exchange rates quotations which do not include US dollar as one of the two currencies quoted. Currency Flows: The movement of currency from nation to nation, which in turn determine exchange rates. 5 TERMINOLOGIES Forward Rates Contracts that provide for two parties to exchange currencies on a future date at an agreed- upon exchange rate. Forward contracts Agreement between firms and banks which permits the firm to either sell or buy a specific foreign currency at a future date at a known price. 6 TERMINOLOGIES Dual pricing Price-setting strategy in which the export price and domestic price are differentiated. Dumping Selling goods overseas at a price lower than in the exporter’s home market, or at a price below the cost of production, or both. Hedge To make counterbalance sales or purchases in international markets as protection against adverse(unpleasent) movement in the exchange rates. 7 TERMINOLOGIES Spot Exchange Rate Spot exchange rate are determined in the spot mkt. It is the number of units of one country currency per unit of another country currency. Where as both currencies are in form of bank deposits. Spot exchange rates are determined by the supply and Demand for currencies being exchanged in the global markets. 1. A commodities or securities market in which goods are sold for cash and delivered immediately. Contracts bought and sold on these markets are immediately effective. 2. A futures transaction for which commodities can be reasonably expected to be delivered in one month or less. Though these goods may be bought and sold at spot prices Triangular arbitrage The exchange of one currency for a second currency, the second for a third, and the third for the first in order to make profit. 8 TERMINOLOGIES Spread The difference between the currencies open market and bank rates as well as it’s the difference between currencies Bank buy and Bank sale rate. Speculators A group of brokers invest in foreign exchange in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss. 9 Meaning of foreign Exchange Rate 1. The foreign exchange rate or exchange rate is the rate at which one currency is changed for another. 2. It is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. • For example, if a person in US want to purchase a pound, a number of dollars required to purchased a pound, $ 2.50=£1 • And UK it should be £0.40=$1 • So the exchange rate should be as follows $ 2.50=£1 OR £0.40=$1 OR $ 1= 52Afs 10 Three types of Exchange Rates • Spot • Forward & • Cross SPOT: the rate quieted for current foreign currency transaction. FORWARD: the rated quoted for the delivery of foreign currency at a free determine future date such as 90 days from now. CROSS: an exchange rate computed from two other rates, such as the relation ship Swiss Frances and German Marks 11 Areas of Foreign Exchange • For the purpose of international business, there are three important areas of foreign exchange that warrant consideration, 1. Foreign Exchange Markets 2. Participants in foreign exchange markets 3. Determination of exchange rates 12 Theories of Foreign Exchange 1:The Mint Parity theory 2: The Purchasing Power Parity Theory 13 The Mint Parity Theory This theory is associated with the work of the International Gold Standard. Under this system, the currency in use was made of gold or convertible into gold at a fix rate. The value of currency unit was defined in terms of certain weight of gold, that is, so many grains of gold to dollar or the pound etc. The rate at which the standard currency of a country was convertible into gold was called the Mint Price of gold. 14 Explanation of the Theory If the official British price of gold was £ 6 per once and the US price of gold $36 per once, they were the mint price of gold in respective countries. The exchange rate between $ and £ would be fixed at $36/£6= 6 Thus under the gold standard, the normal rate of exchange was equal to the ration mint price P= $/ £ 15 Assumption of the Theory 1. The price of gold is fixed by a country in terms of its currency 2. It buys and sells gold in any amount at that price. 3. Its supply of money consists of gold or paper currency which is backed by gold. 4. There is movement of gold between countries 5. Capital is moveable within countries. 16 Criticisms on Mint Parity Theory 1. The international gold standard does not exist now ever since after 1930 2. The theory is based on the free buying and selling of gold, while Govt. do not allow such sales or purchases 3. The theory is fails to explain the determination of exchange rates 4. it is based on flexibility of internal prices but Modern Govt.s follow independent domestic price policy. 17 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The relationship between the exchange rate and the price level in different countries. The price of £ in the foreign currency = Foreign Country price level/UK price level 18 The Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) The PPP theory was developed by Gustav Cassel in 1920 to determine the exchange rate between countries on inconvertible paper countries. This theory states that, the rate of exchange between two countries is determined by their relative price levels. PPP have two versions: 1. The absolute & 2. The relative 19 PPP Theory 20 Cont’d The absolute version states that the exchange rates between two countries should be equal to the ratio of the prices index in the two countries. The formula is, R AB = PA /PB where RAB is the exchange rate between two countries A and B and P refers to the price index. This version is not use because it ignore the transportation cost and other factors. 21 The Second Version ( Relative) This theory can be explain with the help of an example. Suppose India and England are on inconvertible paper standard and by spending Rs.60, the bundle of goods can be purchased in India as can be bought by spending £ 1 in England. Thus, according to PPP, the rate of exchange will be Rs. 60= £ 1 22 Explanation If the price levels in the two countries remain the same but the exchange rate moves to , Rs.50= £ 1. this means Rs. Is overvalue. This will encourage imports & discourage exports by India, as a result, the demand for £ will be increase and Rs. Fall. This process will ultimate Restore the normal exchange rate Rs.60= £ 1 In other hand if the Rs.70= £ 1 it is the example of under devalue. In this case exports are encourage and imports are discourage. The demand for Rupee will rise and that for £ will fall. This process will ultimate Restore the normal exchange rate Rs.60= £ 1. Normally the following Formula is used for calculation R= Domestic Price of a Foreign Currency x Domestic Price Index Foreign price Index 23 Explanation-II • The exchange rate would be a proper reflection of the purchasing power in each country if the relative values bought the same amount of goods in each country. • E.g. If the price of a pint of Stella in the UK was £3.00 and in Europe €4.50, the exchange rate between the two countries should be £1 = €1.50 • If any lower than this value, the £ would be undervalued and if any higher, the £ would be overvalued. 24 End of Chapter ANY QUESTION ? 25 Thank You 26