Entry to the
Eurozone –
Slovenia
Mojca Maček Kenk,
Head of CPI/HICP Department
Introduction of the euro in Slovenia
Criteria for the introduction of the euro
•
A low inflation rate
•
Sound public finances
•
Low interest rates
•
Stable exchange rates
Fulfilling the inflation criteria
5,0
4,5
HICP Slovenia
Convergence criterion
4,0
3,5
3,0
%
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
VII
04
IX
04
XI
04
I
05
III
05
V
05
VII
05
IX
05
XI
05
I
06
III
06
V
06
VII
06
IX
06
XI
06
I
07
Organisation of transition
implementation - government
•
Programme for ERM II Entry and Adoption of the Euro
•
Masterplan for Introduction of the Euro
•
Masterplan for the Euro Changeover
•
Communication Strategy on the Introduction of the Euro
•
Change of legislation:
 Euro Adoption Act
 The Act on Dual Display of Prices
•
Document: Euro price code
•
The government commitment to preclude price rises
Organisation of transition
implementation - SORS
•
In May 2005 appointment of the project group for euro adoption at
the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
•
Preparation of project documentation
•
Euro website (www.stat.si/evro.asp), which is linked to the general
website www.evro.si
•
Appointment of the subgroup for prices
•
Signing of the co-operation agreement between SORS, the
MINISTRY OF THE ECONOMY and the SLOVENE CONSUMERS’
ASSOCIATION
Organisation of transition implementation Slovene Consumers’ Association
• Pricewatch (104 goods and services in the basket): from
February 2006 the pricewatch is conducted every three
months in every region in Slovenia
• Euro website (www.evropotrosnik.si) and consumers europhone:
common point where consumers can report noted price rises
• In the middle of December they started to publish a “black
list” of providers of goods and services that increased prices
by more than 6 percent
• Regular press conference where they report their results
Organisation of transition implementation –
SORS: PRICES
• From April 2006: preparation and publication of
additional analyses
www.stat.si/evro_spremljanje_analize.asp
• From May 2006: personal inflation calculator
www.stat.si/orodja_osebnainflacija.asp
• From December 2006: informative conversion of prices
into euro
www.stat.si/pxweb/Database/EUR_eng/EUR_eng.asp
• 29 December 2006: detailed presentation of December
data at a press conference
• 10 January 2007: release of special Rapid Reports
www.stat.si/eng/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=668
• 9 February 2007: detailed presentation of January data
at a press conference
Additional analyses about price movements
The analyses of price changes in individual months focused
on three aspects:
•
Detailed list of subgroups of goods and services in which changes
in prices had the greatest impact on the total inflation rate.
•
Detailed list of subgroups of goods and services with the
greatest price deviations compared to the average of the
past five years.
•
At the end of each quarter a list of subgroups of goods and
services with the greatest price deviations compared to the
same period in the past five years.
The treatment of the changeover to euro in the
CPI/HICP
with the index for January 2007
We followed Eurostat recommendations:
• Until and including December 2006 prices were collected in
national currency.
• From January 2007 on prices are collected in euros.
• Euro prices in January 2007 were compared directly to the
reference prices (December 2006);
 for conversion the official conversion rate was used and these
converted reference prices were rounded to five decimals.
Monthly rate of change in December, 2004-2006
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
%
Total
1-Food and non-alcoholic
beverages
2-Alcoholic beverages and
tobacco
3-Clothing and footwear
4-Housing, water, electricity and
other
5-Furnishing, household equip.
and maint.
6-Health
7-Transport
8-Communications
9-Recreation and culture
10-Education
11-Restaurants and hotels
12-Miscellaneous goods and
services
dec.04
dec.05
dec.06
4
Monthly rate of change in January, 2005-2007
-14
-12
-10
-8
Total
1-Food and non-alcoholic
beverages
2-Alcoholic beverages and
tobacco
3-Clothing and footwear
4-Housing, water, electricity and
other
5-Furnishing, household equip.
and maint.
6-Health
7-Transport
8-Communications
9-Recreation and culture
10-Education
11-Restaurants and hotels
12-Miscellaneous goods and
services
jan.05
jan.06
jan.07
-6
-4
-2
0
2
%
4
Subgroups of goods and services the prices of which had
the greatest impact on inflation in December 2006 and
January 2007 (in percentage points)
0,29
Fresh vegetables
0,07
Refuse collection
0,06
Recreational services
0,05
Non-alcoholic beverages (in restaur.)
Alcoholic beverages (in restaur.)
0,05
Package holidays
0,05
Maint. and repair of motor vehicles
0,04
Gardens, plants and flowers
0,04
Soft drinks
0,03
Main courses (in restaur.)
0,03
-0,06
Motor fuels
-0,08
Liquid fuels
-0,12
Children's clothes
Shoes and other footwear
Men's clothes
-0,20
-0,28
Women's clothes -0,40
-0,5 -0,4 -0,3 -0,2 -0,1
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
Subgroups where the monthly price increase
in December 2007 was higher than in the
previous years in December (in %)
Impact in
December 07 in
percent. points
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
3.2
0.12
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.4
0.00
Computer equipment
-3.4
-0.2
0.2
0.1
1.7
0.01
Out-patient services
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.02
Personal services
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.5
1.4
0.01
Repairs of equipment and
accessories
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.00
Services in restaurants and
cafes
Repair of household equip.
Subgroups where the monthly price increase
in January 2007 was higher than in the
previous years in January (in %)
Impact in
Janury 07 in pts
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Recreational and sport
services
0.3
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.3
3.5
0.03
Personal services
2.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.3
2.7
0.02
Footwear services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
2.3
0.00
Repair of household
equip.
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
2.1
0.00
Services in restaurants
and cafes
1.1
1.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
2.0
0.07
Repairs of equipment
and accessories
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.00
Services related to
means of transport
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.01
Rice, medium grains (kg)
Espresso in restaurants, cafes
1,90
0,90
0,88
0,88
1,85
0,86
0,86
0,84
0,83
0,83
0,81
0,8
0,80
0,79
0,79
1,81
1,81
1,79
1,78
0,83
Eur
0,82
1,83
1,81
1,80
0,82
0,82
Eur
0,88
1,78
1,75
1,77
1,75
1,74
1,72
1,74
0,79
1,71
1,70
0,78
0,78
0,76
1,65
1,66
0,74
1,60
0,72
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2006
I
I
II
2007
Quality wine in restaurants (l)
9,00
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2006
I
II
2007
Hair cutting for men
Eur
13,00
8,24
12,50
12,28
12,28
I
II
7,92
8,00
Eur
8,25
12,00
7,29
7,29
7,38
7,38
7,38
7,46
7,51
7,51
7,56
7,56
11,75
7,57
11,50
11,17
7,00
11,22
11,22
11,29
11,29 11,29
11,29 11,29
11,41
11,44
11,00
10,7
10,50
6,00
I
2006
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
I
2007
II
10,00
I
2006
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2007
Impact of the changeover on inflation:
(According to our Statistical Office and the Slovenian Institute for Macroeconomic
Analysis and Development-IMAD)
•
No general rise in prices due to euro adoption
•
Most rises in prices related to euro adoption happened in
December 2006 and January 2007
•
Due to euro adoption higher prices of services in hotels and
restaurants and some other services
•
According to first estimates from IMAD, the total effect of
euro adoption on prices was about 0.24 of a percentage
point
Contributions to inflation of price rises related to the
euro changeover in Slovenia
Other services
Services in restaurants and
cafes
Total
Note: *Estimated value.
Source: SORS; calculations IMAD.
December
2006
January
2007
February
2007*
Total*
0.03
0.04
0.10
0.05
0.01
0.16
0.13
0.10
0.01
0.24
0.07
Conclusions:
•
Good and timely preparation on global level is very
important
•
Good co-operations between all institutions connected with
prices and inflation
•
Distribution of work among them