Progress report
on estimation of the GTS costs
CBS-MG-XII (Geneva, 13-16 July 2011)
Hiroyuki ICHIJO (Co-chair of OPAG-ISS)
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1. Approach to estimation
Analysis of difficulties in estimation
(1) Great number of GTS components
(2) Different types of GTS centers
(3) Sensitive cost information
(4) Ambiguous definition of the range of GTS costs
(5) Regional/national differentials in network costs
Assemble of methods
(1) Sampling research
(2) Modeling of classified centers
(3) Collecting actual cost information on the condition
of hiding center names
(4) Simplifying cost items
(5) Investigation of telecom market in typical regions
Work and Outcome
(1) Estimation of total GTS costs
(2) Trend and prospect
(3) Reference to improvement
2. Analysis of difficulties in estimation
(1) The GTS consists of 222 nodes (centers), over 280 links (circuits)
and supplementary systems.
(2) GTS centers are different in role, capability and scale.
(3) In most cases, budget and cost issues are sensitive or confidential.
However half of them are positive to cooperate in the estimation on
the condition that the name of centers never appear in the report.
(4) It is difficult to define the range of GTS costs.
According to the preliminary survey, the following cost items are
possibly dilute the value of expected information:
National data collection
Indirect costs such as human resource and environment costs
(machine room, electricity, air-conditioning …)
(5) There are regional/national differentials in tariffs of telecom
carriers and ISPs. Especially developing countries on telecom
monopoly situation should be checked.
3. Assemble of methods in estimation
(1) Modeling of classified GTS centers and sampling research
Models
Items
Type 1: Lage scale
(core RTHs on MTN)
Type 2: Medium scale
(RTHs on MTN and/or
non-MTN)
•Redundant configuration (e.g.
hot stand-by)
* Performance to switch 500
* Redundant configuration
messages/sec and deal with
(e.g. hot stand-by)
Message
incoming traffic of 4G bytes/day * Performance to switch 100
* Reliability over 99.95% with
messages/sec and deal with
Switching
incoming traffic of 1G
System (MSS) self
•-monitoring hardware and
bytes/day
software problem
* Reliability over 99.9%
* Replacement cycle is less than
8 years
Network
* Redundant configuration of
network facilities
* over 8 GTS connections
* Redundant/backup
management of network
facilities
* over 4 GTS connections
Type 3: Small scale
(NMCs)
Type 4: Minimum scale
(Landline leaf-node
NMCs)
* Redundant configuration
(e.g. hot stand-by or backup
machine)
* Performance to deal with
incoming traffic of about
200M bytes/day
* Redundant configuration
(e.g. backup machine)
* Performance to deal with
incoming traffic of about a
few M bytes/day
* a few GTS connections
* a GTS connection thru a
landline or VSAT
Supplementary * Internet server for GTS data,
Satellite broadcast and/or HF
System
broadcast
Number of
centers
10
23
53
136
Appropriate
sampling
3-5
4-6
5-8
5-8
(2) Simplifying cost items and collecting information
Expenditure items
Centers
Message Switching
System (MSS)
System Costs
Network Equipment
Satellite Communication
System
Other Supplementary
System (e.g. Internet
server for GTS data)
MPLS
Network
Running
Costs
Leased Circuit
Internet for GTS
Connections
Satellite Communication
Service
Others
Hardware Maintenance
(preventive/recovery)
Sustainable
Opeartation Software Maintenance
(Revision/Modification)
Costs
Training
Total Cost
Example #1 : Type 1 (Large scale)
Annual Cost
Remarks
in US $
* 6 year rental contract
2,257,000 * 593,000 (H/W inclding
maintenance) + 1,664,000 (S/W)
106,000* 6 year rental contract
0
500,000
Example #2 : Type 2 (Medium scale)
Annual Cost
Remarks
in US $
* Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years
(life period)
34,200
* 9,200 (H/W) + 18,800 (S/W) + 6,200
(installation)
3,300
13,000
* purchase and maintenance costs
/ 5 years (life period)
* Access ports: 2Mbps for provider
A, and 3MbpsX2 for provider B
148,50064kbpsX2 and 128kbps
100Mbps(SLA), including firewall
200,000
and hosting services
109,500
0
12,300IP-VPN service
0* included in hardware rental fee
600,000* including SE support (day-time)
* Purchase/ 8 years (life period)
* Routers, Switches and DSUs
* Purchase & installation costs/ 8 years
* 1Way-VSAT for backup of data reception
0
0
78,00064kbpsX1 and AnalogueX2
3,70010Mbps (Best effort)
0
350* VSAT license fee
5,700
* On-call recovery service & spare-parts
(3 times/year average)
14,600* Remote maintenance contract
13,000
2,100
3,946,300
154,950
* 20-30 days by vendor during the first 4
years
(3) Investigation of telecom market
Competitive situation
Suitable positioning
situation
10-15
major
players
5 - 10 years
Revenue of major providers in Asia
(2nd half of 2010)
Service
Regional distribution of investment
in telecom market in 2009
MENA: Middle East & North Africa
PSTN
VoIP
Leased line
Frame Relay
ATM
IP-VPN (MPLS)
X.25
ISDN
DDN
Wireless/Satellite
Others
Grand Total
Revenue
Sum [Million US$]
Share
23,500
6,600
1,500
150
200
7,200
0
400
400
5,800
100
45,850
rate
51.3%
14.4%
3.3%
0.3%
0.4%
15.7%
0%
0.9%
0.9%
12.6%
0.2%
100%
4. Roadmap
2011
2Q
Analysis of
difficulties
2012
3Q
4Q
1Q
Assemble
of methods
Preliminary
survey
Collecting & analyzing
Actual cost information Bringing
draft outcome
with RFC
Finalizing
outcome
Investigation
on telecom market
Deliverable
Progress report
to CBS-WG
Final report
to CBS-WG