Understanding the Revolutions of 2011 by Jack O. Goldstone
The Post-Islamist Revolutions by Asef Bayat
A political cartoon by Carlos Latuff depicting President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak
facing the Tunisian knock-on domino effect.
The Arab Spring
 2011 saw dramatic changes in the Arab world’s governance
landscape. Unprecedented popular demonstrations in
Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya led to the overturning of a half a
century of autocratic rule in North Africa.
 Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi
Arabia on 14 January following the Tunisian revolution
protests. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak resigned on 11
February 2011 after 18 days of massive protests, ending his
30-year presidency. The Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi
was overthrown on 23 August 2011, after the National
Transitional Council (NTC) took control of Bab al-Azizia.
He was killed on 20 October 2011.
The Arab Spring
 There has also been civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria,
and Yemen, the latter resulting in the resignation of
the Yemeni prime minister; major protests in Algeria,
Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman; and minor protests
in Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan.
 It was sparked by the first protests that occurred in
Tunisia on 18 December 2010 following Mohamed
Bouazizi's burning himself in protest of police
corruption and ill treatment.
 These
protests, demanding greater political
freedom, economic opportunity, and an end to
systemic corruption, have resonated deeply across
the region, sparking calls for change throughout the
Arab world (among others in Syria, Bahrain, and
Yemen).
 Other Arab states, especially the monarchies, have so
far warded off calls for change with seeming success,
using the familiar mix of coercion, co-option and
promises.
 However, this does not necessarily mean that they
were not affected at all.
A status report on the Arab awakening (As of July 2011)
Source: The Economist – 14 July 2011
 While there are major cultural, economic,
and
geographic
differences,
the
experiences in North Africa are serving as
models for the rest of Africa too.
 In the months following the launch of the
Arab Spring, there have been protests in
more than a dozen African capitals calling
for
greater
political
participation,
transparency, and adherence to the rule of
law.
Arab political language is changing: “The new slogans are
about equitable distribution of wealth, defeating nepotism
and corruption, freedom of expression and assembly, all of
which are rights meant to restore self-respect and render to
people their due sense of dignity.”
 One of the remarkable aspects of the
prospective democratic transitions in North
Africa and the Middle East is that it has taken
so long.
Intro
 With the exception of Central Asia, the Arab
world is the last major region to start down
the democratic path.
 Since
Intro
“the
third
wave”
of
global
democratization (which started in the mid1970s with the toppling of the dictator of
Portugal), dozens of countries with all kinds of
authoritarian political systems—monarchies,
oligarchies, military dictatorships, one-party
regimes—shifted into the democratic camp.
 As most of the world was transformed,
however, one area remained frozen in time: the
Arab Middle East.
Triggers and Drivers
 Many of the challenges, frustrations, and unmet
aspirations in the Arab world have existed for years.
 Why then is there such agitation for reform now?
 In other words, what has changed?
Triggers and Drivers
 Nobody really knows, of course.
 No one thought Tunisia was on the verge of an
eruption; that the upheaval would spread from Tunisia
to Egypt; and that the shocks would reverberate
around the Middle East.
 The old regimes themselves were taken aback
by the force and speed of the uprisings.
Even traditional opposition parties were behind the
curve, often remaining hesitant well after newer popular
protest movements sprang up and seized the moment
(with the help of social media and communications
technologies that proved to be a new and powerful
political tool).
How did it start?
 The uprising began in December 2010, when a fruit
vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in the
town of Sidi Bouzid (Tunisia) to protest his lack of
opportunity and the disrespect of the police.
How did it start?
 Tunisia, therefore, can be considered as the pioneer of “the
revolutionary movements as the Tunisians were the first to break
the barrier of fear, which constituted the major obstacle in the
face of unleashing popular fury and resentment over
deteriorating economic, social and political conditions which
needed only a spark to explode forth”.
“The Tunisian revolution was the catalyst that instigated the
Egyptian revolt and uprisings in other countries.
 Despite the limited significance of Tunisia in the regional Arab
system, its role in breaking the barrier of fear was of paramount
importance, which should not be underestimated, and which
exceeded Tunisia’s traditional role in the regional scheme”.
Triggers and Drivers
 Rising food prices
 High Unemployment Rate (Especially youth
Unemployment)
 Frustration with closed, corrupt, unresponsive
political systems.
 Increasing income inequality
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
 For a revolution to succeed, a number of factors
have to come together:
1) The government must appear so irremediably
(impossible to cure or put right) unjust or incompetent
that it is widely viewed as a threat to the country's
future.
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
2) Elites (especially in the military) must be alienated
from the state and no longer willing to defend it.
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
3) A broad-based section of the population, spanning
ethnic and religious groups and socioeconomic classes,
must mobilize.
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
4) International powers must either refuse to step in to
defend the government or constrain it from using
maximum force to defend itself.
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
 Revolutions rarely triumph because these
conditions rarely coincide.
 This is especially the case in traditional monarchies
and one-party states, whose leaders often manage
to maintain popular support by making appeals to
respect for royal tradition or nationalism
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
 Elites, who are often enriched by such governments,
will only forsake them if their circumstances or the
ideology of the rulers changes drastically.
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
 And in almost all cases, broad-based popular
mobilization is difficult to achieve because it
requires bridging the different interests of the urban
and rural poor, the middle class, students,
professionals, and different ethnic or religious
groups.
 History is full of student movements, workers'
strikes, and peasant uprisings that were easily put
down because they remained a revolt of one group,
rather than of broad coalition’s
Necessary Conditions for a Revolution
 Finally, other countries have often intervened to
save embattled rulers in order to stabilize the
international
system.
(i.e.
in support of their opposition to Communists/I
ran/ Radical Islamist Groups etc.)
(A Recent Example: Bahrain)
The Sultanistic Regimes
 Such regimes arise when a national leader expands his
personal power at the expense of formal institutions.
 How did the sultanistic regimes manage to resist
change?
The Sultanistic Regimes
 Sultanistic dictators appeal to no ideology and have no
purpose other than maintaining their personal authority.
 They may preserve some of the formal aspects of
democracy - elections, political parties, a national
assembly, or a constitution.
 However, they rule above them by installing their
supporters in key positions and sometimes by declaring
states of emergency, which they justify by appealing to
fears of external (or internal) enemies.
The Sultanistic Regimes
 Behind the scenes, such dictators generally
accumulate great wealth, which they use to buy
the loyalty of supporters and punish opponents.
 They
also seek relationships with foreign
countries, promising stability in exchange for aid
and investment.
The Sultanistic Regimes
 The leaders control their countries' military elites by
keeping them divided.
 Typically, the security forces are separated into several
commands (army, air force, police, intelligence) - each
of which reports directly to the leader.
The Sultanistic Regimes
 To keep the masses depoliticized and unorganized,
sultans control elections and political parties and
pay their populations off with subsidies for key
goods, such as electricity, gasoline, and foodstuffs.
 When combined with surveillance, media control,
and intimidation, these efforts generally ensure
that citizens stay disconnected and passive.
The Sultanistic Regimes
 By following this pattern, politically skillful sultans
around the world (sultanistic dictatorships are not
unique to the Arab world: Mexico, Indonesia and
Nicaragua, among others had similar regimes) have
managed to accumulate vast wealth and high
concentrations of power.
 But as the new generation of sultans in the Middle
East has discovered, power that is too concentrated
can be difficult to hold on to.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of Sultanistic
Dictatorships
 Sultans must strike a careful balance between self-
enrichment and rewarding the elite:
 If the ruler rewards himself and neglects the elite, a
key incentive for the elite to support the regime is
removed.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 Meanwhile, as the economy grows and education
expands, the number of people with higher
aspirations and a keener sensitivity to the
intrusions of police surveillance and abuse
increases.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 And if the entire population grows rapidly while
the lion's share of economic gains is hoarded by the
elite, inequality and unemployment surge as well.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 As the costs of subsidies and other programs the
regime uses to appease citizens rise, keeping the
masses depoliticized places even more stress on the
regime.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 If protests start, sultans may offer reforms or expand
patronage benefits to head off escalating public anger.
 These concessions are generally ineffective once people
have begun to clamor for ending the sultan's rule.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 By dividing their command structure, the sultan
may reduce the threat posed by the security
services. But this strategy also makes them more
prone to defections in the event of mass protests.
 Lack of unity leads to splits within the security
services; meanwhile, the fact that the regime is not
backed by any appealing ideology or by
independent institutions ensures that the military
has less motivation to put down protests.
Inherent Vulnerabilities (Essential Weaknesses of
Sultanistic Dictatorships
 Much of the military may decide that the country's
interests are better served by regime change.
 If part of the armed forces defects the government can
unravel with astonishing rapidity.
The Arab Spring
 The revolutions unfolding across the Middle East
represent the breakdown of increasingly corrupt
sultanistic regimes.
 Although economies across the region have grown in
recent years, the gains have bypassed the majority of
the population, being amassed instead by a wealthy
few.
The Arab Spring
 Mubarak and his family reportedly built up a fortune
of between $40 billion and $70 billion, and 39 officials
and businessmen close to Mubarak's son Gamal are
alleged to have made fortunes averaging more than $1
billion each.
The Arab Spring
 Fast-growing and urbanizing populations in the
Middle East have been hurt by low wages and by food
prices that rose by 32 percent in the last year alone,
according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture
Organization.
 But it is not simply such rising prices, or a lack of
growth, that fuels revolutions; it is the persistence of
widespread and unrelieved poverty amid increasingly
extravagant wealth.
The Arab Spring
 Discontent has also been strengthened by high
unemployment, which has stemmed in part from the
sharp increase in the Arab world's young population.
 Not only is the proportion of young people in the
Middle East extraordinarily high, but their numbers
have grown quickly over a short period of time. Since
1990, youth population aged 15-29 has grown by 50%in
Libya and Tunisia, 65%in Egypt, and 125%in Yemen.
The Arab Spring
 Many of these young people have been able to go to
university, especially in recent years.
 Indeed, college enrollment has soared across the
region in recent decades, more than tripling in
Tunisia, quadrupling in Egypt, and expanding
tenfold in Libya.
The Arab Spring
 In both Tunisia and Egypt, the military had seen its
status eclipsed recently.
 In both countries military resentments made the
military less likely to crack down on mass protests;
officers and soldiers would not kill their countrymen
just to keep the Ben Ali and Mubarak families and
their favorites in power.
 A similar defection among factions of the Libyan
military led to Qaddafi's rapid loss of large territories.
Monarchies
 The region's monarchies are more likely to retain power.
This is not because they face no calls for change. In fact,
Morocco, Jordan, Oman, and the Persian Gulf kingdoms
face the same demographic, educational, and economic
challenges that the sultanistic regimes do, and they must
reform to meet them.
 But the monarchies have one big advantage: Their
political structures are flexible.
 Modern monarchies can retain considerable executive
power while ceding legislative power to elected
parliaments.
Monarchies
 In times of unrest, crowds are more likely to
protest for legislative change
abandonment of the monarchy.
than
for
 This gives monarchs more room to maneuver to
pacify the people.
After Revolutions
 Some Western governments, having long supported Ben
Ali and Mubarak as bulwarks against a rising tide of radical
Islam, now fear that Islamist groups are poised to take over.
 Yet the historical record of revolutions in sultanistic
regimes should somewhat alleviate such concerns.
 Not a single sultan overthrown in the last 30 years has been
succeeded by an ideologically driven or radical
government.
 Rather,
in
every
case,
the
end
product
has been a flawed democracy: often corrupt and prone to
authoritarian tendencies, but not aggressive or extremist.
After Revolutions
 This marks a significant shift in world history. Between
1949 and 1979, every revolution against a sultanistic
regime (in China, Cuba, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iran, and
Nicaragua) resulted in a communist or an Islamist
government.
 Yet since the 1980s, neither the communist nor the
Islamist model has had much appeal.
 Both are widely perceived as failures at producing
economic growth and popular accountability; the two
chief goals of all recent anti-sultanistic revolutions.
After Revolutions
 The United States and other Western nations have
little credibility in the Middle East given their long
support for sultanistic dictators.
 Any efforts to use aid to support certain groups or
influence electoral outcomes are likely to arouse
suspicion
After Revolutions: The Role of West
 What the revolutionaries need from Westerners is
vocal support for the process of democracy, a
willingness to accept all groups that play by
democratic rules, and a positive response to any
requests for technical assistance in institution
building.
After Revolutions: Risks Ahead
 The greatest risk that Tunisia and Egypt now face is an
attempt
at
counterrevolution
by
military
conservatives, a group that has often sought to claim
power after a sultan has been removed.
After Revolutions: Risks Ahead
 The other main threat to democracies in the Middle
East is war.
 Historically, revolutionary regimes have hardened and
become
more
radical
international conflict.
in
response
to
After Revolutions: Egypt
June 2012, Hosni Mubarak was found guilty of
complicity in the murders of the protestors and
sentenced to life imprisonment.
24 June 2012, Islamist Mohammed Morsi won the
presidential election.
12 August 2012: President Morsi ousted Egypt's military
leadership and assumed legislative powers.
After Revolutions: Egypt
12 October 2012: Critics and supporters of Egyptian
President Mohamed Morsi clashed in Cairo's Tahrir
Square on 12 October 2012 in a small but potent rally,
as liberal and secular activists erupted with anger
accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of trying to take
over the country.
After Revolutions: Egypt
 November 2012: Liberal and secular groups walked
out of the constitutional constituent assembly because
they believed that it would impose strict Islamic
practices, while members of the Muslim Brotherhood
supported Morsi. Protesters battled the police
demanding political reforms and the prosecution of
officials blamed for killing demonstrators as well as to
protest against Morsy and the growing influence of the
Muslim Brotherhood.
After Revolutions: Egypt
22 November 2012: Morsi issued a constitutional
declaration which extended his powers :
“The president is authorised to take any measures he
sees fit in order to preserve the revolution, to preserve
national unity or to safeguard national security”.
He eventually rescinded it in the face of popular
protests.
Meanwhile a new constitution is drafted which human
rights groups and international experts said was full of
holes and ambiguities .
After Revolutions: Egypt
 2012
December- Islamist-dominated constituent
assembly approved draft constitution that supported
the role of Islam and restricted freedom of speech and
assembly. Public approved it in a referendum,
prompting extensive protest by secular opposition
leaders, Christians and women's groups.
 In January 2013, more than 50 people are killed during
days of violent street protests. The army chief warned
that political strife is pushing the state to the brink of
collapse.
After Revolutions: Egypt
 In February 2013, hundreds of police officers in Egypt
shut down headquarters of Interior Ministry in at least
seven provincial capitals across country in series of
protests against what they call political exploitation by
government of Pres Mohamed Morsi.
 On Mar. 23, 2013, dozens of people are injured when
thousands of supporters and opponents of Egypt's
ruling Muslim Brotherhood clash outside group's
Cairo headquarters.
After Revolutions: Egypt
 On May. 2, 2013, Egyptian authorities jail anti-Islamist
activist Ahmed Douma on charges that include
insulting Pres Mohamed Morsi. (there are various
similar incidents).
 On May 8, 2013, president Mohamed Morsi swears in
nine new cabinet members in reshuffle that increases
role of Islamists in upper ranks of government.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
The Tunisian military ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on 14
Jan 2011. On 14 January, Ben Ali dissolved his government
and declared a state of emergency.
Officials said the reason for the emergency declaration was to
protect Tunisians and their property. People were also
barred from gathering in groups of more than three,
otherwise courting arrest or being shot if they tried to run
away. Ben Ali also called for an election within six months
to defuse demonstrations aimed at forcing him out. The
military took control of the airport and closed the country's
airspace.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
On the same day, Ben Ali fled the country for Malta
under Libyan protection and landed in Jeddah, Saudi
Arabia, after France rejected a request for the plane to
land on its territory. Saudi Arabia gave him asylum.
On the morning of 15 January, Tunisian state TV
announced that Ben Ali had officially resigned his
position.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
A commission to reform the constitution and current
law in general has been set up .
After Bin Ali left, gun battles took place near the
Presidential Palace between the Tunisian army and
elements of security organs loyal to the former regime.
The Tunisian army was reportedly struggling to assert
control.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
On 23 October 2011, Tunisians voted for the first time
post-revolution. The election appointed members to a
Constituent Assembly charged with rewriting Tunisia's
Constitution.
The formerly-banned Islamic party Ennahda won by
capturing 41% of the total vote. Ehnada rules Tunisia
in a “troika” coalition with two center-left parties.
2011 December - Human rights activist Moncef
Marzouki is elected president by the constituent
assembly, Ennahda leader Hamadi Jebali is sworn in as
prime minister.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
 2012 June - Former president Ben Ali is sentenced to
life in prison over the killing of protesters in the 2011
revolution. He is living in Saudi Arabia, which refuses
to extradite him.
 2012 August - Thousands protest in Tunis against
moves by Islamist-led government to reduce women's
rights. Draft constitution refers to women as
"complementary to men", whereas 1956 constitution
granted women full equality with men.
After Revolutions: Tunisia
 2013 February - Prime Minister Jebali resigned after his ruling Islamist Ennahda party
rejects his proposals to form a government of technocrats after the killing of an
opposition anti-Islamist leader.
 Since 14 March 2013, the prime minister is Ali Laarayedh . He represents the
Ennahda Movement.
 Ennahda, said that the cabinet reshuffle had reduced its share of ministers in the
government and that it had yielded control of the ministries of justice, interior and
foreign affairs, bowing to a central demand of several opposition parties.
 2013 8 March- Tunisia’s prime minister announced a new cabinet on Friday, handing over
key ministries previously headed by members of the ruling Islamist party to independent
figures in an effort to calm the worst political crisis since the country’s revolt more than
two years ago.
After Revolutions: Libya
 After
violence erupted between Gaddafi and
opposition forces in Jan 2011, same time, a
multinational coalition launched a large scale airbased military intervention to disable the Gaddafi
government's military capabilities and enforce the UN
Security Council resolution in March.
 By the end of March, command of the coalition
operations had been assumed by NATO.
After Revolutions: Libya
In October 2011, Gaddafi and several other leading
figures in his government were captured and killed in
Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte. On 23 October 2011, the
National Transitional Council officially declared that
Libya had been liberated.
After Revolutions: Libya
 On 22 November, the NTC named its interim government.
 On 1 January 2012, the NTC released a 15-page draft law that
would regulate the election of a national assembly charged
with writing a new constitution and forming a second
caretaker government. The proposed law laid out more
than 20 classes of people who would be prohibited from
standing as candidates in the elections, including Libyans
who had ties to Muammar Gaddafi, former officials
accused of torturing Libyans or embezzling public funds,
active members of the Revolutionary Guard, opposition
members who made peace with Gaddafi.
After Revolutions: Libya
 The finalization of the election law would be followed
by the appointment of an election commission to
divide the country into constituencies and oversee the
poll, to be held in June.
After Revolutions: Libya
 On 7
July 2012, Libyans voted in their first
parliamentary elections since the end of the
dictatorship of Muammar Gaddafi. The election, in
which more than 100 political parties have registered,
formed an interim 200-member national assembly.
This replaced the unelected National Transitional
Council, named a prime minister, and formed a
committee to draft a constitution.
After Revolutions: Libya
 2012 August - Transitional government handed power
to the General National Congress, which was elected
in July. The Congress elects Mohammed Magarief of
the liberal National Front Party as its chairman,
thereby making him interim head of state.
 2012 October -the National Congress elected Ali
Zidan, a liberal and leading opposition envoy during
the civil war, as the prime minister.
 The congress is dominated by more liberal-leaning
members, but it also has many moderate Islamists and
a few Salafists (fundamentalists).
After Revolutions: Libya
2012 November - New government led by Ali Zidan is
sworn in.
2013 April - The government continues to struggle to
impose its authority on militia groups. One military
group briefly abducted Prime Minister Zidan's aide
Mohamed al-Ghattous on the outskirts of Tripoli.