Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada

Space Climate/Weather refers to changes in the space environment and effects that those changes have on Earth and mankind’s activities.
These affect Earth climate on various temporal and spatial scale as well as communications, navigation and many other space and ground based systems.
Space Climate or Climate in near-Earth space is characterized for long-term observations of space environment.
Space Weather refers for short-term , very dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geo-space environment.
• Impact on Solar Physics
( with consequences even for fundamental particle physics; for example neutrino oscillation problem: SNO, Canada)
• It is important in order to improve our understanding of the
Earth’s climate and weather in relation with (some time) controversial problem of signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters,
Earth’s atmosphere chemistry and long term trends in Earth’s Climate.
• Big impact on space technology .Need to have Space Weather nowcast and forecast .
The very complex radiation effects on spacecraft systems and instruments , end even on Earth technology are influenced by Space
Weather induced variations in the Earth’s space environment

Sources of Space Weather

Sun : EM radiation & particle radiation

Galactic Cosmic Rays

Indicators of Solar activity
Solar and geomagnetic indices are used to describe the activity levels of the Sun and the disturbance of the geomagnetic field.
• Sun Spot Number (SSN)
•
Solar Radio emissions : Flux of 10.7 cm ( Ottawa index). Are essential measurements of the total amount of thermal emissions from chromosphere and lower corona.The F107 index gives a good measure of the UV radiation output ( new E107).
There are suggestions that 10.7 cm flux is also an excellent indicator of magnetic activity on the Sun.
•
UV flux, irradiance .
• Magnetic indices ( aa, Ap, Kp, Dst, etc..).Geomagnetic indices typically describe the variations of the geomagnetic field over a certain time period.They provide a measure of the disturbance of the magnetosphere which has direct consequences for the charged particle space environment.
• Trapped proton and electron fluxes
• Galactic Cosmic Rays , protons of very high energy and neutrons fluxes.Flux periodicity correlated with IMF and erosion effect of Earth atmosphere via Solar activity.

Solar radiation as main element of space weather, varies at very different time scales. due to solar activity
•
~ 27 days (Solar rotation)
•
~ 11.2 years (Schwabe cycle, cycle of solar activity)
•
~ 22 years ( Hale cycle)
(magnetic cycle : the original magnetic polarity is restored every second 11year)
•
80-90 years ( Gleissberg cycle)
(seen by an enveloping curve of peaks of sunspot record)
•
~ 205 years (de Vries cycle):
Sporer minima (AD 1420-1540)
Maunder minima (AD 1645-1715) due to Solar-Earth system
• Seasonal variations
(related with seasonal variations of geomagnetic activity --> variations of outer belt electron population); due to motions of the Earth around
Sun (--> annual changes in the
Earth’s atmosphere introduce seasonal modulation in low-altitude trapped proton population)
• Daily variations of Earth’s magnetic dipole
(due to axial rotation of the Earth; angle between dipole and rotational axes ~11 deg.)
Longer cycles – important for effects related with Earth’s climate and long term trends

Electrons, protons and ions
 Trapped by the Earth’s magnetic field :
Radiation Belts ( Van Allen Belts) e E< 2-3 MeV; p E< 200-300 MeV

Passing through the solar system :
Solar Wind ( e, p He4 ) E< 100 KeV
Solar Particle Events mainly protons E = 1 - >100 MeV
Galactic Cosmic Rays E up to TeV

-Oct and Nov 1957 : Sputniks 1 & 2 ( SU)
-Jan 1958 : Explorer 1 ( US)
(Geiger-Muller counter; J van Allen )
Expected rate 30 count/sec
& … zero count/sec !
-Explorer 2 =failed, BUT
-March 25, 1958 Explorer 3:

30 /s ;
 increase to 128 /s (max on tape)
 then to zero c/s and again to 128.

Near the perigee, back to expected 30c/s
Ernest Ray :
“
!”

A charged particle became trapped in those regions where the magnetic field lines are closed
1) Circular motions with gyro-radius about the field line : T~ milliseconds
2) Bounce back and forth along a field line .Reversing direction at a mirror point:
T~ seconds.
3) Drift of particles around the Earth : T~ one hour.
I II I
Electrons drift to east, protons drift to west
There are two main belts:
Iinner belt : e and p ( up to 2.4 Re)
IIouter belt : e (2.8 – 12 Re)

The Earth’s magnetic field is not symmetric
South Atlantic Anomaly ( also called
Brazilian Anomaly or
Capetown Anomaly) is a lowest magnetic field region located at 26S, 53W.

SAA
The tilt of the dipole axis with respect to the rotational axis
And due to the displacement of the geomagnetic axis from the center of the Earth

Electrons AE-8 Protons AP-8

Continuous flux of particles ( e, p, He) from sun;
(Expanding magnetized plasma generated by the Sun)
-characterized mainly by speed and density.
Geomagnetic activity is controlled by the solar wind speed and IMF orientation.
An important parameter:
Bz
 oscillation and a ‘turn’ to <0 values  magnetic storm( Kp>5 )
Electron enhancements- tendency to occur at the solar rotation period (27 days)
Strong correlation between electron precipitations (E>30 keV) at polar orbit and solar wind speed at 1 UA.
-consequences for physico-chemistry parameters of the atmosphere.

SEP or SPE (Solar Proton Events)
( Solar Cosmic Rays)
Origin : Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) p, e & He emitted by the sun in burst during
‘solar storms’
-energies > 10 MeV/nucleon
-access to open magnetic fields of polar cap.
Produce also : X-rays; gamma-rays, UV light burst and very fast wind flow which can inject protons into the trapping region
( even create ‘second proton belt’)
Fluence : from 10^5 to 10^11 part/cm^2
Duration of event : from one to several days
“Bastilia” Solar Event
14 July 2000

SPE Periodicity:
Frequency spectra of solar proton fluence of Energy > 30 MeV
 periods of ~ 11 years and 3-4 years.
Impossible to predict
-greater occurrence frequency during maximum solar activity
- and during decline of cycle
NASA SOHO Image Solar Flare

Galactic Cosmic Rays: fully ionized particles of all stable elements (90% p ~7% He)
Origin : galactic and extragalactic; Energies up to TeV
Energy spectrum max at 0.3-1 GeV/nucleon
The incoming charged particles are ‘ modulated
’ by the solar wind and IMF which decelerates and partially excludes the lower energy GCR from the inner solar system. There is a significant anticorrelation between solar activity and the intensity of the CR with E< 10 GeV.
Variations of proton counts
E=80-215 MeV of MEPED detector aboard the TIROS/NOAA spacecraft

Is in fact the secondary radiation generated in the inner magnetosphere due to:
nuclear reactions by GCR and SPE interactions with :
- protons of the inner belt
- and atoms of the atmosphere
secondary CR decay ( pions, muons..)
This radiation component consists mostly of:
- neutrons
- e- and e+
- protons ( and antiprotons) , nuclei
There is also an anticorrelation between solar activity and the intensity of secondary radiation as a result of atmosphere expanding ( and increasing of nuclear interaction rate ) during high solar activity.

-When the Sun releases a large burst of matter and magnetic disturbance
 a magnetic storm which prevent many cosmic rays from entering the atmosphere.
Forbush decrease detected by the Inuvik neutron monitor at 23 Mar 1991.
“
Solar cosmic rays
” produced by a solar flare are recorded as a sharp increase in secondary neutrons flux.
The event of May 24, 1990 seen by Inuvik, Deep River and Goose Bay neutron monitors.

Low energy particles
- correlated with SA
High energy particles
- anti-correlated with SA
S olar A ctivity
Effects on
Spacecraft and instruments
Solar irradiance
- correlated with SA
Neutron Flux
- anti-correlated with SA
Neutrons  cosmogenic radionuclides (14C,10Be,36Cl)
: extend record of Solar Activity
: signal of past climate variations
Effects on
Earth Climate

Spacecraft anomalies : from -------easily recovered to -------total mission failure origin : -engineering (operation fault, mechanism failure and ageing)
-space weather which simulate engineering faults—
BUT not only
Based upon the effect upon the s/c :
Surface charging | Photonics noise
Deep dielectric charging | Total dose effects
Single Event Upset (SEU) | Material degradation
Solar radio frequency interference | Spacecraft drag

Surface Charging
S/C immersed in a cool, dense plasma e, ions, secondary emitted particles : photoelectrons and backscattered electrons

Gives net s/c potential
And this lead to discharges
 noise into the system; false command,
 change the physical characteristics of subsystems.
Occurs predominantly during geomagnetic storms ( for K index >=6)
Night

Day transitions are especially problematic during storms: photoelectric effect is abruptly present/absent
 trip discharges
There is also a strong local time asymmetry : majority Surface Charging anomalies occur during the night

Is a problem primarily for high altitude s/c
Relativistic electrons (E> 1MeV) can easily penetrate s/c shielding and can build up charge where they come to rest ( in dielectrics ). For high electron flux during extended period of time
 abrupt discharges deep in the s/c.
Discharges appear to correlate well with long periods of high fluxes .
High fluxes of these electrons vary with 11 year Solar Cycle .
This variation is dictated by the nature of the sun’s output and by the character of the solar wind incident on the magnetosphere.
Was also found that the equinoctial fluxes of electrons (this is an average over
7 years) were nearly a factor of three higher than the average solstice fluxes .
Example: Anik/Intelsat (Ca) :
1994 wheel controller
1998 lost all power from solar panel array

SEU occur when a high-energy particle penetrates s/c shielding and hit a device causing a disruption.
Effects can range from simple device tripping to component latch-up or failure .
Hitting memory devices result in ‘ bit-flip’ .
SEU are normally caused by GCR and SPE and high energy trapped particles .
SEU rates increase with high fluxes, but the particle energy spectrum and arrival time seen by satellites varies with the location and nature of the event on the solar disk.
SEU peak occurrence frequency corresponds to the peak of ~50MeV protons of the inner belt.
The shoulder in distribution correspond to the peak of the secondary proton belt
(from 23 Mar 1991 solar storm ).
SEU attributed to Cosmic Rays
Distribution of SEU over entire CRRES mission
(launched July 25, 1990; returned data for ~14 months)

Satellite anomalies over SAA
UoSAT-2 microsatellite
SEU- (recoverable) memory upsets
(from Sept 1988 to May 1992)
MISR camera (3 Febr—16 Febr 2000)
Before cover opened
(proton hits cameras designed to detect visible light)

Bastilia Solar Event
– example of High Radiation Background anomaly
July 14, 2000
A powerful X class flare erupted from sunspot region
9077 at approximately 10:24- it was accompanied by a full halo coronal mass ejection that is Earth directed.
SOHO LASCO C2 & C3 Images
April 23 2003

150
100
50
0
-50
350
300
250
200
-150
SAA
-100
-48.40 Width=30.105
0 -50
Longitude
50
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-80 -60
SAA
-24.773 Width=15.316
-40
Latitude
-20 0 20
TERRA
Solid State Star Tracker anomalies
High Background

The case of MOPITT
M easurements O f P ollution I n T he T roposphere )
- Piezoelectric accelerometer anomalies
- Location of anomalies signals
- Correlation with big Solar Particle Events
- Correlation with Solar Activity ( Solar Sub maximum I and II)
- Conclusions and consequences

“Terra,” is the name of the
Earth Observing System (EOS) flagship satellite, launched on Dec. 18, 1999.
The mission is a vital part of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise , helping us understand and protect our home planet
Terra s/c is in a sun-synchronous polar orbit.
Orbital period=98.88 min.
Altitude=705 Km.
25 Jun 2004 01:41:51.36
Sun
SAA

MOPITT instrument is an infrared gas correlation radiometer.It operates with eight channels : for CO and CH4.
Infrared detectors need to be cooled to less than 100 K ( by Stirling Cycle
Coolers with two Compressors and two
Displacers mounted back to back).
The vibration level is measured by two piezoelectric accelerometers
-Cooler Compressor
(vibrations for x,y, z )
-Cooler Displacer
(vibrations for x,y,z)

Multi-component force measurements
Kistler: K-Shear accelerometer.
Sensing element: quartz crystal
110.072
110.074
DOY 110 (2003)
110.076
110.078
110.080
0.9
0.8
0.7
Comp Z Vib
110.082
110.084
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
109.112
109.114
109.116
109.118
109.120
109.122
109.124
DOY 109 (2003)
109.126
Comp Z Vib
16229.74
16229.72
16229.70
16229.68
16229.66
16229.64
16229.62
16229.60
16229.58
0.1
Average=018 N
Width=0.03 N
0.2
Selection limit
0.3
Vibration (N)
0.4
0.5
250
200
150
-100
-150
-200
0.6
-250
100
50
0
-50
2.5
2.0
Intensity (Vibration) distribution
all events
1.5
1.0
0.5
A
B
0.0
-0.6
-0.48533
-5.03397
-0.5
-0.4
0.14097
0.44251
-0.3
LOG(Vibration intensity)
-0.2
-0.1

Location of MOPITT accelerometer anomalies
Total time: 993 days;
Daily rate=1.06 ev/day
Total Nr events over
SAA=567 ( 54%)
SAA rate= 0.57 ev/day
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-80
-60
Longitu
-40 de -20
0
-50
-20
-10
-40
-30
La tit ud e
South Atlantic Anomaly seen by MOPITT
MOPITT spend only 6.25% of time over SAA
 SAA rate= 9.14 ev/day

100
180
160
140
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-20 0 20 40 100 120 140 160 60 80
Nr of events
SAA events = 54 %
Background = 20.4%
Poles ( +/- 65 ) = 25.6 %;
North/South (poles) asymmetry=0.43
120
100
80
25
20
South Pole events
(Long >65S)
-65.721
Width=66.199
63.470
Width=77.913
15
60
40 10
20
0
-20
5
0
-200 -150 -100 -50 0
Longitude
50 100 150 200
-150 -100 -50 0
Longitude
50 100 150

60
50
SAA
40
30
20
10
0
-50 -40 -30 -20
Latitude
Center Width
--------------------------
-26.065 16.675
-10 0
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-80
SAA
-70
Center Width
-------------------------
-47.395 28.418
-60 -50 -40
Longitude
-30 -20 -10 0
Day – Night Asymmetry
SAA: Day/Night = 0.72
During the Night:
Lat & Long widths increase with 2-3 deg.

Detected by MOPITT accelerometer
Proton Flux
3.00E+009
p E>1 MeV
p E>10 MeV
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
0
Daily Rate for Mopitt Accelerometer Anomalies
Y1
200
Y2
Average daily rate=
Y3
1.05734
+/- 0.04186
400 600
DOY(from 2000)
800 1000 1200
2.50E+009
2.00E+009
1.50E+009
1.00E+009
5.00E+008
0.00E+000
0
Y1
200
Y2
400
Doy ( Date ) # of DSE < # >
196 (July 14 2000) 8 1.03 Y1
197 (July 15 2000) 11 1.03 Y1
314 (Nov. 9 2000) 7 0.67 Y2
634 (Sept 25 2001) 3 1.24 N1
676 (Nov 6 2001) 16 1.59 Y3
694 (Nov 24 2001) 3 1.78 N2
Y3
N1
600
Proton Flux
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
0
Y1
200
p E>100 MeV
Y2
400 600
DOY (from 2000)
N1
Y3
800
800
6
0
1000
4
2
12
10
8
18
16
14
2
0
1000
10
8
6
4
18
16
14
12

Max p Flux [pfu] @
>10 MeV >100 MeV
Y1 Jul 14/15: 2000 24000 410
Y2 Nov 09: 2000 14800
N1 Sept 25: 2001 12900
347
31
Y3 Nov 06: 2001 31700
N2 Nov 24: 2001 18900
-Solar Proton Events ( from ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/ , http://www.sel.noaa.gov/weekly/)
253
4
1 pfu = 1part/(cm^2 s sr)
MOPITT Accelerometer detect SPE at
6 Nov (during the second peak of proton flux) even if the Solar Event start at 4 Nov

CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor on the SOHO Spacecraft
The Proton Monitor data consists of counting rates in a MicroChannel Plate (MCP).
The PM MCP responds to secondaries generated by ions with incident energies > 50 MeV and electrons with incident energies > 2 MeV.
4-7 Nov 2001
Seen by MOPITT Acc
( Y3)
22-25 Nov 2001
NOT Seen by MOPITT Acc
( N2)

29 Oct 2003
Solar Proton Event
Max Proton Flux (pfu)
> 10 MeV > 100 MeV
29/10 : 29500 186
30/10 : 3300 110
MOPITT DSE
Total # # /Day
29/10 : 9 2.15
30/10 : 7 2.15
DSE/Day
29 Oct 2003
F107
300
8
250
6
200
4
150
2
100
0
1386 1389 1392 1395 1398
DOY(2000)
1401 1404 1407 1410
This SPE induced a high daily rate for
MOPITT DSE on two consecutive days when, as in previous cases, the high energy component (>100 MeV) reaches a large value.
These MOPITT DSEs are also located on the polar regions.

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0
GOES-10 Data
Event Accumulated Fluence
20 40 60
Energy (MeV)
80
Y1
Y2
Y3
N1
N2
100 120
Correlation between number of DSE during SPEs and the SPE proton fluence for E> 15 MeV .
Y# and N# refer to SPEs identified in previous Table .
The energetic particles detected by the
MOPITT (piezoelectric) accelerometer are mainly high energy protons
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
GOES-10 Data
Event Accumulated Fluence
Y1
Y2
Y3
N1
N2
SPE dedected by Mopitt
30
SPE not dedected by Mopitt
50 35 40
Energy (MeV)
45
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4 N1
2
0.4
N2
Y2
(14/15 July 2000)
(6 Nov 2001)
(9 Nov 2000)
(25 Sept. & 23 Nov 2001)
Y1
Y3
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
SPE fluence (E> 15 MeV)
(in units of 10^10 particles/cm^2)
1.1
1.2

- are caused by high energy charged particles precipitating via
‘pole horns’
.
- more events during the Day
Mopitt DSE location during intense SPE
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-200 -150 -100 -50 0
Longitude
50 100
Night
Day
150 200
10
Event distribution over the poles
Nov 6, 2001
8
6
Jul 14 & 15, 2000
Nov 9, 2000
4
2
0
0 200 400 600
Doy (from 2000)
800 1000 1200

200
150
100
50
0
SC #21 SC #22 SC #23
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Year
1990 1995 2000 2005
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
2002 2003 2004
100
80
60
40
20
0
140
The sun radio emission at a wavelength of 10.7 cm and sun spot number
120
1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Max of SC #23
2001 2002
80
60
2003
200
180
160
140
120
100
140 200
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
0
130
120
190
180
20
110 170
40
From 1997 (Solar Activity min)
60
SI SSN
80 100 120
100
2000.0
2000.5
2001.0
2001.5
Year
2002.0
2002.5
160
2003.0

There is an overall increase ( ~ two times) of MOPITT DSE daily rate during the time period Nov 2001 – Feb 2002
( second Solar sub-maximum )
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
SAA
Poles
Bg
First
Sub_Max
0 200
Second
Sub_Max
400 600 800
DOY (from 2000)
During High Solar Activity period ( II sub-max ) the relative contribution of trapped particles in
SAA decrease from ~70% to ~40%,
Background remain almost constant(~20%) and
Poles contribution increase (from ~15% to ~40%).
This is a consequence of direct injection of more high energy particles (via poles) during
High Solar Activity.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Bg contrib.
Poles contrib.
SAA contrib.
Second
Sub_Max
0.0
200 400 600 800
DOY (from 2000)
1000
1000
1200
1200

With S un S pot N umber With 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
12
First
Sub_Max
200
10
Second
400
DOY (from 2000)
8
Sub_Max
600
6
4
SAA
2
Smooth 27 average
800 1000
0
1200
24
22
20
18
16
14
220
200
180
160
140
120
0
First
Sub_Max
200 400 600
Second
Sub_Max
4
SAA
2
Smooth 27 average
800 1000
0
1200
16
14
8
6
12
10
24
22
20
18
DOY (from 2000)
MOPITT Accelerometer anomalies are correlated with Solar Activity as shown by Solar centimetric
Radio Flux : Ottawa index F10.7

Analysis of MOPITT anomalous accelerometer signals shows a direct correlation of the DSE daily rate with solar activity, a Day/Night asymmetry caused probably by interaction of trapped particles with the neutral atmosphere, and a direct correlation with high intensity solar proton events (SPEs).
The high energy particles – the source of anomalous accelerometer signals- are localized mainly in SAA region, but the polar regions, particularly the southern pole, are also regions of higher risk for satellites mainly during intense SPEs.
We have also found that at least during the Solar maximum, there is a correlation of the particle population responsible for DSEs in the piezoelectric accelerometer with solar activity as expressed better by the F10.7 than the SSN.
During the second sub-maximum of Solar Cycle SC23 , the fraction of events over the poles relative to the SAA region increase, which mean that, probable there are more high-energy particles of non-trapped origin in this time interval, and a good proxy of Solar activity for this purpose is the F10.7 Solar Radio Flux index.

including Space Environment Sensors on satellites is a difficult idea to sell to management
(because of cost/weight/power penalty)
BUT with very good benefits
The paper: Solar Particle Events seen by MOPITT instrument by: F. Nichitiu, J.R. Drummond, F.Zou,R.Deschambault
has been accepted for publication in
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
MOPITT mission and data analysis are supported by the
Canadian Space Agency ( CSA ),
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council ( NSERC ) and the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA )
E N D