QBO (Seasonal Forecasting)
QBO 30 mb Zonal Wind Index
(Index Primarily Used)
QBO 50 mb Zonal Wind Index
OTHER GLOBAL INDECES
“Many people like to use the QBO (The Quasi-Biennial zonal
wind Oscillation) to make long range forecasts. I don't use it.
This is because in the months of research that I have done on
the index, I have found no clear correlation between it and
anything. Things that would correlate in theory (to the 3rd
degree) don't have enough analogs to verify it. For example...
someone will say that a west-QBO Nino in a solar max would
produce a good winter in the east. Well, there are only 1-2
analog years to work with, so you can neither prove or disprove
the theory. Making forecasts based on it may work for some
people, but I don't trust something that unproven.” (Misc. Pro
Met)
QBO (DT on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
“The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a band of high
level zonal winds found over the Equatorial at very
high altitudes (even above the Jet Stream). It is a very
well known periodic oscillation in atmosphere. The
has been a lot of research done over the last10 years
that shows the QBO has significant impact of overall
climate patterns ...as well as winter weather patterns
as well as the Hurricane season. The period of
the QBO "oscillation" is about (a little over) two
years. The QBO has two "phases" which occur within
the 1 Oscillation cycle-the Easterly or NEGATIVE phase and the WESTERLY
or Positive phase…
QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
“…Within the meteorological community the QBO
is used heavily by SOME as a key ingredient to
figuring out what the winter pattern
across North America might be...while other
forecasters don’t think its all that relevant…”
(DT)
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~cwhung/qbo.html
http://strat-www.met.fuberlin.de/products/cdrom/html/section5.html
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm
Negative QBO and Blocking
A negative (easterly) QBO helps create a blocking high over
Greenland which can divert cold air south into the United
States
QBO (DT)
“…In my opinion However much of the discussion is
mis-directed towards How and why the QBO is
important. For example it has been asserted
that during the Winter season....the Eastern half of
the US is often cold and snowier
than Normal when the QBO is in Westerly or
Positive phase while others have asserted that
the Easterly or Negative Phase is better for colder
and snowier Eastern US winters…”
QBO (DT)
“…This LINK has the QBO data going back
to 1948. It is my position that the QBO index is NOT
an indices that directly relates to the overall
pattern per se ...be
it Winter...Spring...Summer or Autumn. The
reason why I think the QBO is important is that
it tell us what the Pacific Jet is going to
be doing over the central and eastern
Pacific. Good weather forecasters should be
willing to tell you that if you get the West coast of
North America wrong...you get EVERYTHING else-the Rockies to the Plains to the Midwest to
the Deep South and East coast wrong as well.
Perhaps this explains why there are often so
many snow and cold forecasts for the eastern US out
there that are so often wrong or over hyped….”
QBO (DT)
“…It is My contention that a East or Negative Phase of the QBO
as we go into the Winter months correlates to a more active
and stronger Pacific Jet stream...which means more
rains and storminess for the Pacific NW and West coast and
a Ridge over the SE or East coast.
The KEY point to consider is that IF the current QBO Phase
stays strongly positive into the winter, significant cold air
outbreaks or a colder than normal overall pattern would be
significantly reduced. If on the other hand the QBO phase
drops towards neutral then the overall pattern becomes
much more promising for significant winter weather over
much of the nation as well as the chances for more
significant cold air outbreaks…”
QBO (DT)
…If you scan all the QBO data and you look for
QBO events which were strongly negative...
reached NEUTRAL ... then PEAKED ...
and dropped back to NEUTRAL ... you can plot
how long it takes for the positive phase of the
QBO to run its course. That cycle takes
anywhere from 10 to 16 months…”
Other Factors: EPO and QBO
“…This is a repeat in some ways of what went on last
winter. I am sure I don't have to remind you that the
consensus forecast from a lot of well-known private
forecast services was for a cold and stormy winter
2005-06 over the eastern US. There is very low
emphasis outside of my self from any other forecaster
that I know about the power of the Pacific Jet last
winter enhanced by a persistently positive EPO and
the very negative QBO. IMO this is why most of the
winter forecasts for a cold and /or stormy eastern US
busted so badly in 2005-2006.”
DT (November 2006)
QBO and El Nino
“Least but also First the QBO dropped
DRAMATICALLY in DEC 2006 to well under
+10 to a value of +6.10... this combined with a
weakening El Nino tells me the 2nd of the
winter will be impressively cold and stormy
for much of the US as it has been warm and
dry. The combination of weakening moderate
El Nino and near neutral QBO winters are a
LOCK -- as much as one can have such thing
in seasonal forecasting for a Good if not
GREAT 2nd half of winter and a delayed
spring.”
-DT-
2006 QBO (Dr. Hurm Research-Jan
2007 Post)
2006
January
February -11.25
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January (2007)
...we shall see
February
March
April
-18.84
Rising
15
-0.39
5.00
10.36
11.47
10.75
9.10
10.20
10.86
10.10
6.20
2.61
Rising
Rising
Rising
Neutral (Stall)
Neutral (Stall)
Neutral (Stall)
Neutral (Stall)
Neutral (Stall)
Neutral (Stall)
Falling
Falling
2.43
1.24
-5.18
Neutral (Stall)
Falling
Falling
10
5
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
May 2005 to January 2007
As seen in the following slides, one must note that our major
snowstorms have usually come during a “stall” period, referred to as
neutral, or near a transitional period RATHER than in the middle of a
rising or falling period. As we enter 2007, we are in a transitional period
from neutral (6months) to falling. February/March is looking favorable
for a snowstorm when evaluating the QBO data. We shall see.
QBO Trend Map and Plot for 2001-2006
Making Monthly QBO Plots
-Note the occurrence of a snowstorm
before or after a transition (falling-risingneutral) or during a “neutral stall”-
FNF
FNR
-Note the “stalling” so to
speak when rising or falling-
Note: Arrows
Indicate Time Periods
in Which Philadelphia
Received a Major
Snowstorm.
BOLDED ARROWS
indicate the most
significant storms.
It is common for
these snowstorms to
occur at or near a
transitional period of
the QBO as well as
within a neutral
period referred to as
a “stall.”
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1995-2000
Falling, Neutral (“Stall”), Falling
Falling, Neutral, Falling
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1989-1994
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1983-1988
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1977-1982
FNF
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1971-1976
No Biggies Here! But There Were Favorable Times. See Ovals.
Major
Snowstorm
N and W of
PHL
Check for
other NE
snowstorms or
moderate
snowstorms.
Southern
Snowstorm:
15-25 inches in
GA and SC
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1965-1970
Falling-NeutralFalling
Falling-Rising
Transition Period from
Falling to Rising!
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1959-1964
Falling-Neutral-Falling
Falling-Neutral Stall-Falling
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1953-1958
Falling-Neutral StallFalling
Falling-Neutral StallFalling
Falling-Neutral Stall-Falling
QBO Map Plotting and Plot for 1948-1952
QBO and Major Snowstorms in the Delaware
Valley (Dr. Hurm)
1.
Major snowstorms tend to occur during a “stall” or
neutral trend
and/or
before/after a “transitional” period:
Falling-Neutral-Falling
Rising-Neutral-Falling
Rising-Neutral-Rising
Rising
Falling-Rising
Rising-Falling
=
=
=
=
=
=
32
13
3
2
2
1
-Not during times of rapid rising or rapid falling. This
is very, very rare2. Also, during times of QBO between -10.0 and + 10.0