Engineering Economy Chapter 4: The Time Value of Money Lecture 5 Sometimes cash flows change by a constant amount each period. We can model these situations as a uniform gradient of cash flows. The table below shows such a gradient. End of Period 1 2 3 : N 2 Cash Flows 0 G 2G : (N-1)G Gradient Formulas Arithmetic gradient series – Starts at base amount and increases by constant gradient G in years 2 through n Base Amount A P = A(P/A,i%,n) + G(P/G,i%.n) This total present worth of base and gradient Linear Gradient Example A1+n-1G A1+n-2G • Assume the following: A1+2G A1+G 0 1 2 3 n-1 N This represents a positive, increasing arithmetic gradient Arithmetic Gradients •P/G factor formula for gradient only •A/G factor for annual equivalent of gradient only • •P/G and A/G factors are in the tables at the rear of text Arithmetic Gradients Example: Estimated annual revenue is $5,000 increasing by $500 per year starting next year. Find P and A equivalent over an 8-year period at i = 10%. $8500 $8000 Gradient, G = $500 $7500 $7000 $6500 $6000 $5500 Base $5000 A = $5000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Arithmetic Gradient Factors • The “G” amount is the constant arithmetic change from one time period to the next. •The “G” amount may be positive or negative. •The present worth point is always one time period to the left of the first cash flow in the series or, •Two periods to the left of the first gradient cash (G) flow. 7 3/19/2016 Present Worth Point… $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 X 1 2 3 4 5 The Present Worth Point of the Gradient 6 7 Present Worth: Linear Gradient • The present worth of a linear gradient is the present worth of the two components: – 1. The Present Worth of the Gradient Component and, – 2. The Present Worth of the Base Annuity flow – Requires 2 separate calculations. 9 3/19/2016 Present Worth: Gradient Component • Three contiguous counties in Florida have agreed to pool tax resources already designated for county-maintained bridge refurbishment. At a recent meeting, the county engineers estimated that a total of $500,000 will be deposited at the end of next year into an account for the repair of old and safety-questionable bridges throughout the three-county area. Further, they estimate that the deposits will increase by $100,000 per year for only 9 years thereafter, then cease. • Determine the equivalent (a) present worth and (b) annual series amounts if county funds earn interest at a rate of 5% per year. 10 11 Example Determine the equivalent annual series amounts if county funds earn interest at a rate of 5% per year. Equations for P/G and A/G 13 3/19/2016 The annual equivalent of this series of cash flows can be found by considering an annuity portion of the cash flows and a gradient portion. 14 End of Year 1 2 3 Cash Flows ($) 2,000 3,000 4,000 4 5,000 End of Year 1 Annuity ($) 2,000 Gradient ($) 0 2 3 4 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 Uniform Gradient Series Example: An engineer is planning for a 15 year retirement. In order to supplement his pension and offset the anticipated effects of inflation and increased taxes, he intends to withdraw $5,000 at the end of the first year, and to increase the withdrawal by $1,000 at the end of each successive year. How much money must the engineer have in this account at the start of his retirement, if the money earns 6% per year, compounded annually? $19000 $18000 $8000 $7000 $6000 $5000 T=0 1 15 P 2 3 4 14 15 Want to Find: P Given: A1, G, i, and n Uniform Gradient Series Example: AT = (A1) + G(A/G,i,n) A2 = G(A/G,i,n) = $1000 (A/G,6%,15) = $1000 (5.926) = $5926 AT = $5000 + $5926 = $10,926 P = AT (P/A,i,n) = $10,926 (P/A,6%,15) = $10,926 (9.7123) = $106,120 16 17 Shifted Uniform Series A shifted uniform series starts at a time other than period 1 The cash flow diagram below is an example of a shifted series Series starts in period 2, not period 1 FA = ? A = Given 0 1 2 3 4 Shifted series usually require the use of multiple factors 5 PA = ? Remember: When using P/A or A/P factor, PA is always one year ahead of first A When using F/A or A/F factor, FA is in same year as last A Example Using P/A Factor: Shifted Uniform Series The present worth of the cash flow shown below at i = 10% is: (a) $25,304 (b) $29,562 (c) $34,462 P0 = ? P1 = ? 0 1 0 (d) $37,908 i = 10% 2 3 1 4 2 5 3 Actual year 6 4 5 Series year A = $10,000 Solution: (1) Use P/A factor with n = 5 (for 5 arrows) to get P1 in year 1 (2) Use P/F factor with n = 1 to move P1 back for P0 in year 0 P0 = P1(P/F,10%,1) = A(P/A,10%,5)(P/F,10%,1) = 10,000(3.7908)(0.9091) = $34,462 Answer is (c) Example Using F/A Factor: Shifted Uniform Series How much money would be available in year 10 if $8000 is deposited each year in years 3 through 10 at an interest rate of 10% per year? Cash flow diagram is: FA = ? i = 10% Actual year 0 1 2 3 0 4 1 2 5 3 6 7 4 8 5 9 6 7 10 8 Series year A = $8000 Solution: Re-number diagram to determine n = 8 (number of arrows) FA = 8000(F/A,10%,8) = 8000(11.4359) = $91,487 Shifted Series and Random Single Amounts For cash flows that include uniform series and randomly placed single amounts: Uniform series procedures are applied to the series amounts Single amount formulas are applied to the one-time cash flows The resulting values are then combined per the problem statement The following slides illustrate the procedure Example: Series and Random Single Amounts Find the present worth in year 0 for the cash flows shown using an interest rate of 10% per year. PT = ? 0 i = 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8 A = $5000 PT = ? 0 10 $2000 i = 10% 1 2 3 0 4 1 5 2 6 3 7 4 A = $5000 Actual year 8 5 9 6 10 7 8 Series year $2000 Solution: First, re-number cash flow diagram to get n for uniform series: n = 8 Example: Series and Random Single Amounts PA PT = ? i = 10% 0 1 2 0 3 4 1 5 2 6 3 7 4 A = $5000 8 5 9 6 Actual year 10 7 8 Series year $2000 Use P/A to get PA in year 2: PA = 5000(P/A,10%,8) = 5000(5.3349) = $26,675 Move PA back to year 0 using P/F: P0 = 26,675(P/F,10%,2) = 26,675(0.8264) = $22,044 Move $2000 single amount back to year 0: P2000 = 2000(P/F,10%,8) = 2000(0.4665) = $933 Now, add P0 and P2000 to get PT: PT = 22,044 + 933 = $22,977 Example Worked a Different Way (Using F/A instead of P/A for uniform series) The same re-numbered diagram from the previous slide is used PT = ? i = 10% 0 1 2 3 0 4 1 5 2 6 3 7 4 A = $5000 Solution: FA = ? 8 5 9 6 10 7 8 $2000 Use F/A to get FA in actual year 10: FA = 5000(F/A,10%,8) = 5000(11.4359) = $57,180 Move FA back to year 0 using P/F: P0 = 57,180(P/F,10%,10) = 57,180(0.3855) = $22,043 Move $2000 single amount back to year 0: P2000 = 2000(P/F,10%,8) = 2000(0.4665) = $933 Same as before Now, add two P values to get PT: PT = 22,043 + 933 = $22,976 As shown, there are usually multiple ways to work equivalency problems Example: Series and Random Amounts Convert the cash flows shown below (black arrows) into an equivalent annual worth A in years 1 through 8 (red arrows) at i = 10% per year. A=? 0 1 2 3 4 0 5 1 6 2 7 3 A = $3000 Approaches: Solution: i = 10% 8 4 5 $1000 1. Convert all cash flows into P in year 0 and use A/P with n = 8 2. Find F in year 8 and use A/F with n = 8 Solve for F: F = 3000(F/A,10%,5) + 1000(F/P,10%,1) = 3000(6.1051) + 1000(1.1000) = $19,415 Find A: A = 19,415(A/F,10%,8) = 19,415(0.08744) = $1698 Shifted Arithmetic Gradients Shifted gradient begins at a time other than between periods 1 and 2 Present worth PG is located 2 periods before gradient starts Must use multiple factors to find PT in actual year 0 To find equivalent A series, find PT at actual time 0 and apply (A/P,i,n) Example: Shifted Arithmetic Gradient John Deere expects the cost of a tractor part to increase by $5 per year beginning 4 years from now. If the cost in years 1-3 is $60, determine the present worth in year 0 of the cost through year 10 at an interest rate of 12% per year. PT = ? i = 12% 0 1 60 3 2 0 1 60 60 Actual years 4 2 65 10 5 3 70 95 G=5 Solution: Gradient years 8 First find P2 for G = $5 and base amount ($60) in actual year 2 P2 = 60(P/A,12%,8) + 5(P/G,12%,8) = $370.41 Next, move P2 back to year 0 P0 = P2(P/F,12%,2) = $295.29 Next, find PA for the $60 amounts of years 1 and 2 PA = 60(P/A,12%,2) = $101.41 Finally, add P0 and PA to get PT in year 0 PT = P0 + PA = $396.70 Example: Shifted Arithmetic Gradient 28 29