L3: Economic Equivalence ECON 320 Engineering Economics Mahmut Ali GOKCE Industrial Systems Engineering Computer Sciences www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Economic Equivalence What do we mean by “economic equivalence?” Why do we need to establish an economic equivalence? How do we establish an economic equivalence? www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Economic Equivalence Economic equivalence exists between cash flows that have the same economic effect and could therefore be traded for one another. Even though the amounts and timing of the cash flows may differ, the appropriate interest rate makes them equal. www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Equivalence from Personal Financing Point of View F If you deposit P dollars today for N periods at i, you will have F dollars at the end of period N. PF F P(1 i) N 0 N P www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Alternate Way of Defining Equivalence P F dollars at the end of period N is equal to a single sum P dollars now, if your earning power is measured in terms of interest rate i. 0 N F P F (1 i) 0 N N www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Practice Problem At 8% interest, what is the equivalent worth of $2,042 now 5 years from now? If you deposit $2,042 today in a savings account that pays 8% interest annually. how much would you have at the end of 5 years? $2,042 0 1 2 33 4 5 F = 0 5 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Solution F $2,042(1 0.08) 5 $3,000 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Example 2.2 At what interest rate would these two amounts be equivalent? $2,042 0 i=? $3,000 5 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Equivalence Between Two Cash Flows Step 1: Determine the $2,042 base period, say, year 5. Step 2: Identify the interest rate to use. Step 3: Calculate equivalence value. 0 $3,000 5 i 6%, F $2,042(1 0.06)5 $2,733 i 8%, F $2,042(1 0.08)5 $3,000 i 10%, F $2,042(1 0.10)5 $3,289 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Example - Equivalence Various dollar amounts that will be economically equivalent to $3,000 in 5 years, given an interest rate of 8%. P $3,000 $2,042 5 (1 0.08) P F $2,042 $2,205 0 1 $2,382 $2,572 2 3 $2,778 4 $3,000 5 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Example 2.3 V $200 $150 $120 $100 $100 = $80 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Compute the equivalent lump-sum amount at n = 3 at 10% annual interest. www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Approach V $200 $150 $120 $100 $100 $80 0 1 2 3 4 5 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr V3 $511.90 $264.46 V $776.36 $200 $200(1 0.10)1 $100(1 0.10)2 $264.46 $150 $120 $100 $100 $80 0 1 2 3 4 5 100(1 0.10)3 $80(1 0.10)2 $120(1 0.10) $150 $511.90 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Practice Problem 2P How many years would it take an investment to double at 10% annual interest? 0 N=? P www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Solution 2P F 2 P P (1 0.10) N 2 1.1 N 0 N=? P log 2 N log1.1 log 2 N log1.1 7.27 years www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Rule of 72 Approximating 72 N how long it will interest rate (%) take for a sum of money to double 72 10 7.2 years www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Practice Problem $1,000 $500 Given: i = 10%, A 0 Find: C that makes the two cash flow streams to be indifferent 1 2 C C 3 B 0 1 2 3 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Approach Step 1: Select the base period to use, say n = 2. Step 2: Find the equivalent lump sum value at n = 2 for both A and B. Step 3: Equate both equivalent values and solve for unknown C. $1,000 $500 A 0 1 2 C C 3 B 0 1 2 3 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Solution $1,000 For A: V2 $500(1 0.10) $1,000(1 0.10) 2 $1,514.09 $500 1 A 0 For B: V2 C (1 0.10) C 2.1C To Find C: 2.1C $1, 514.09 C $721 1 2 C C 3 B 0 1 2 3 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Practice Problem $1,000 At what interest rate would you be indifferent between the two cash flows? $500 A 0 1 2 3 $502 $502 $502 B 0 1 2 3 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Approach Step 1: Select the base period to compute the equivalent value (say, n = 3) A Step 2: Find the net worth of each at n = 3. $1,000 $500 0 1 2 $502 $502 3 $502 B 0 1 2 3 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr Establish Equivalence at n = 3 Option A : F3 $500(1 i) $1, 000 3 Option B : F3 $502(1 i) 2 $502(1 i) $502 Find the solution by trial and error, say i = 8% Option A : F3 $500(1.08)3 $1, 000 $1, 630 Option B : F3 $502(1.08) 2 $502(1.08) $502 $1, 630 www.izmirekonomi.edu.tr