Educational Master Plan
2008-2018
Mendocino-Lake Community College District
Approved by Board of Trustees on February 3, 2010.
Updated April 2012.
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2012 Planning Priorities
Based on the Educational Master Plan and Program Review, EAP has identified the following
institutional planning priorities:
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Addressing professional development needs – e.g., how to teach research papers
Building K-12 alliances
Developing effective technology
Improving retention and student services
Addressing growth in Lake County
Addressing growth in Latino population district-wide
Addressing aging of community and faculty
Meeting state mandates
Linking facilities planning to educational needs
Scheduling maintenance/sustainability
Supporting Basic Skills
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Executive Summary
The Educational Master Plan (EMP) is prepared by the Educational Action Plan (EAP)
committee. The EMP is a living document which is a part of the College’s overall planning
process. The EMP is revisited yearly and updated, as needed, to reflect changes in the external
or internal environment; the needs of the community and our students; and the changing
nature of higher education. By providing the foundation for the Facilities Master Plan and the
Technology Master Plan (see diagram), the EMP is a key document in the College’s planning
efforts.
Relationship among Educational Master Plan, Facilities Master Plan, Technology Plan and
Strategic Plan.
Because Mendocino College is virtually the only postsecondary education institution within the
District, it is the primary provider of education for job enhancement or retraining for many
adults. For in-District high school graduates (a slowly shrinking pool), it is the postsecondary
educator of choice. Each year, Mendocino College also transfers about 150 students to other
institutions of higher education, principally schools with the California State University system
and the University of California system. It also enrolls a large part-time student population,
predominantly lifelong learners.
The Mendocino-Lake Community College District spans portions of Mendocino County and Lake
County and serves a diverse and demographically changing population. In terms of economics,
the largest sectors of the District economy are in public service (government and education),
leisure and hospitality, retail and agriculture. Since 1990, there has been an overall decline in
manufacturing and the natural resources sectors of the economy. Limited job growth is
projected in the areas of the environment, allied health and green technologies.
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The EMP addresses the need for expanding the student population at Mendocino College over
the next decade. Because of external forces, such as state support, increased energy costs and
other natural increases in costs, the College will need to have a larger student population or
other revenue sources. This will require a broad-based effort ranging from increasing the
persistence of enrolled students to expanding current programs to serve the changing
population and the development of new programs to meet workforce needs. In part, growing
integration of technology and pedagogy may help the college balance the need for growth with
a tradition of personalized instruction.
As Mendocino College engages in planning, it must balance maintaining traditional strengths
while meeting the challenges of the future:
 The College needs to preserve the breadth of choice in programs and courses in the Arts
& Sciences and to continue to support Career and Technical Education. At the same
time, changes in demand will force the re-examination of existing programs, leading to
modification or discontinuance in some cases.
 There is a considerable challenge in maintaining the high quality of instruction that
Mendocino College is known for as the College develops more distance education and
make greater use of technology in all aspects of the college experience.
 Quality of instruction will also be challenged as the College expands to provide more
services in Lake County and Willits and explore other new geographic venues. The
recruitment of high quality part-time and full-time faculty will be a constant priority.
 As a comprehensive community college, Mendocino College needs to continue to
preserve and expand lifelong learning opportunities, especially as the population
changes. Balanced against this need are the challenges associated with potential
changes in state funding for courses and fee structures.
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Chapter I: Philosophy and Role of the Educational Master Plan
Introduction
The Mendocino College Educational Master Plan (EMP) offers direction for the future and a
foundation for meeting the educational needs of the students and communities of the
Mendocino-Lake Community College District. It provides the basis for the ongoing development
of Mendocino College programs and services by outlining a general plan for the future through
2018.
The plan acknowledges the College’s strengths, provides data about future trends, and makes
reasonable planning assumptions about how the College can best meet the needs of the everchanging California North Coast community. It is intended to be viewed as a “living document”
to be used as the primary guide in college planning and decision-making over the next decade.
It will be used as the basis for shaping the content of its component support plans: the Facilities
Master Plan and the Technology Plan. All three master plan segments work in conjunction with
the Strategic Plan to address emerging demographic and educational trends in response to the
evolving needs of students.
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Objectives of the Educational Master Plan
1. Document current practices
2. Produce a plan that is flexible enough to accommodate changes in instructional
methodology, technology, and delivery systems
3. Encourage the delivery of college curriculum including transfer education, career and
technical programs, special interest courses (when possible), and instruction and
support for the under-prepared student
4. Anticipate the instructional program needs of the community for the next decade
5. Provide a planning document that will serve as a decision-making tool and reference for
the future
6. Maximize efficiency and productivity of instructional programs
7. Drive the planning of staffing, capital expenditure, technology, facilities, professional
development, and budget
College Characteristics and Planning Assumptions to 2018
For the purposes of planning the next decade of activity at Mendocino College, it can be
assumed that several fundamental current characteristics of the college will provide the
opportunity to:
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Continue the College’s role as the primary local institution of public higher education
within the Mendocino-Lake Community College District meeting the mission and
operational requirements of the California Community College System as supported by
the State of California;
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Maintain a small college setting where excellent faculty, relatively small classes and
personalized support services can allow individual students from small regional
communities to participate actively in the educational process and flourish in ways not
possible at larger colleges;
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Foster student-centered learning environments and maintain quality instruction by
supporting faculty in being innovative and passionate about teaching and learning;

Develop new avenues of student and institutional financial support in cooperation
with Financial Aid and the Mendocino College Foundation, as well as the pursuit of
grant opportunities;
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Complete plans and projects funded by the 2006 Measure W Bond
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Maintain accreditation by the Western Association of Schools and Colleges.
In conjunction with the fundamental characteristics of the college listed above, research for the
Educational Master Plan suggests several key planning assumptions:
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On average, Mendocino College students have more financial need than those in many
areas in the rest of the state, and the College needs to invest in initiatives to assist
them.
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The College needs to preserve -- and expand when possible -- breadth of choice, even if
it chooses to discontinue some classes and programs.
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As the only local institution of higher education, we have an obligation to respond to
community demands for job training and upgrading of career skills.
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Lake County demographics suggest an opportunity to increase the high school capture
rate in the eastern portion of the college district.
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New alliances with secondary school throughout the District will help increase
enrollments in both Transfer and Career and Technical programs.
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Improved and innovative programs should expand comprehensive opportunities to
support the persistence of all students.
About Mendocino College
Mendocino College is a single college district within the public California Community College
System, serving geographically distinct rural communities within the Mendocino-Lake
Community College District. The District occupies major portions of both Mendocino and Lake
Counties in northern California.
Founded in 1973, Mendocino College has become an important center of higher education,
serving its students from a main campus in Ukiah and two off-campus centers -- in the cities of
Lakeport in western Lake County and Willits in northern Mendocino County. During its 35 years,
the college has become a primary resource for surrounding California North Coast communities
and a leading force in regional higher education, economic development and community
improvement.
The College plays an increasingly important role in the lives of area residents by providing
diverse academic programs leading to certificates and associate degrees. These programs
include Career and Technical Education, Foundational Skills, and the Arts and Sciences. The
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College serves the needs of students who ultimately plan to transfer to other colleges and
universities. Finally, the College provides a range of social, cultural and athletic activities which
enrich the lives of students and members of the community.
In response to the changing demographics and job opportunities in the rural region Mendocino
College serves, the college strives to maintain a breadth of choice in programs and courses. It
also recognizes the importance of the ability to react quickly and effectively to immediate
needs brought forward by the community.
As evidenced in this Educational Master Plan, it is anticipated that continuing population
changes will gradually re-shape the character of the region, providing opportunities to
strengthen existing programs and to adapt to new needs. In the coming decade the college will
be challenged to keep up with advances in technology, instructional innovation, market and job
trends, and demands for new and improved educational programs and facilities.
As California Community Colleges share the responsibility of meeting a broad range of needs in
the absence of adequate resources, it is even more critical for Mendocino College to establish a
clearly articulated plan as part of an ongoing commitment to providing the communities it
serves with a dynamic educational, social, and cultural environment dedicated to student
success.
Mendocino College’s vision and roadmap for the next 10 years (Fall 2008 – Fall 2018) is
addressed in the following pages. This document represents the collaborative efforts of faculty,
staff and student representatives. It is based on campus-wide discussions, research, the
Program Review process, and the contributions of members of several institutional planning
committees. The plan articulates the shared vision, mission, values, and goals that will continue
moving the college toward excellence in classroom teaching and learning, work force
preparation, online education, economic and community development, and services to
students.
College Mission
Mendocino College is a dynamic community of learners in which faculty and staff partner with
students to help them achieve their educational goals. Informed by research, reflection and
dialogue, we meet community needs through learning opportunities in lower division programs
in Basic Skills, Transfer Preparation and Career and Technical Education as well as Workforce
Improvement. (Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)
College Vision
Mendocino College faculty, staff and students inspire each other to engage in quality
educational experiences to achieve student success.
Within this partnership, all members share a mutual accountability for student success. Faculty
and staff serve as the catalyst for students actively engaged in the learning process; students
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accept their responsibility to define their goals and to work actively toward them. (Adopted
February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)
College Core Values
Student Success:
We are committed to helping students achieve their educational goals.
Collaboration:
We participate in our communities to become informed about and engaged in local and
global issues. We work and communicate collegially, both on campus and in our
communities.
Respect:
We recognize the worth of individuals by encouraging active participation, open
exchange of ideas and collaborative decision making.
Integrity:
We maintain public trust by being honest, fair and equitable and by honoring our
commitments to our students, staff and communities.
Diversity:
We respect the dignity of each individual; we value the creativity and insight that
emerge from individual differences; and we recognize the importance of diversity in
achieving our goals.
Responsiveness:
We respond to requests and concerns in a timely and helpful manner. We listen to our
students and our communities and institute changes based on identified needs.
Continuous Improvement:
We work to integrate the best practices in education and to ensure progress toward
achieving our goals by operating in a culture of evidence.
Sustainability:
We embrace sustainable practices and recognize our responsibility as global citizens.
(Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)
College Strategic Goals
Within our learner-centered partnership:
1. Cultivate student success as measured by learning outcomes.
2. Ensure student access to college programs and services.
3. Build a vibrant, student-centered campus experience within and beyond the classroom.
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4.
5.
Maximize the efficient use of financial, human, physical and technology resources.
Develop new and strengthen existing relationships with educators, business, public
agencies and other constituents of our communities.
(Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)
The Role of the Educational Master Plan
The Educational Master Plan (EMP) reflects the college mission, vision and core values as it
guides the campus in reaching its strategic goals and directions over a ten-year period through
the year 2018. The EMP describes current college practices in order to create future plans. The
EMP also meshes with and reinforces other master plans for Facilities and Technology, to create
a unified strategic plan for the College.
The EMP should be considered a dynamic and flexible document that is consistent with the
emerging educational trends and the needs of the students and the community. Inherent in its
logic should be the understanding that institutional change takes time and that internal and
external factors may affect plans. The EMP is kept by the Educational Action Plan committee
which is responsible for reviewing and updating it yearly. It is also synchronized with the
Program Review process and evolves in response to new community and program needs.
In addition to providing general direction for academic programs, the EMP is a document which
informs the Planning and Budgeting Committee, the Staffing Committee and other committees
engaged in planning and budgeting at Mendocino College, including Facilities and Technology
planning committees.
The EMP discusses programs as they fall into three areas:
Established Programs
These are the core programs at the College which are consistently offered. The EMP, in
identifying these programs, also discusses how they can be maintained and developed.
Transitional Programs
These are programs which are developed in response to an immediate need in the
service area, but which may not become established offerings from semester to
semester or year to year. Factors affecting these transitional programs may include
internal factors (enrollments, faculty, resources/ facilities) or external factors
(economic or social factors, demand for graduates).
Potential Programs
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These are programs for which courses may not currently exist or which may be created
by combining existing courses. In considering developing programs, the College will
consider research which reveals current community needs.
Assumptions of the Educational Master Plan
Growth
Over the decade from 2008 though 2018, Mendocino College anticipates growth will be
achieved in various ways: through an increase in enrollments; through an increase in full-time
students; through an increase in student retention; through an increase in sections; and
through an increase in programs. The need to experience growth is largely financial: all costs
associated with the operation of the College will continue to rise. Low or no growth in FTES,
the primary state funding mechanism for the College assumed for the current planning period,
would likely result in loss of faculty and services.
Flexibility
While Chapter 3 provides some projection of population and employment trends for the near
future (through 2015), these are statistical projections based upon past experiences. Radical
changes in the economy of the North Coast region (e.g. a major new manufacturing facility, a
new regional medical/health care facility, new consumer technologies) could place unforeseen
demands for new or expanded programs upon the College. The EMP needs to incorporate
enough flexibility to accommodate unforeseen changes over the next decade, including budget
fluctuations at the state level, but have enough detail to be an effective planning guide.
Flexibility also refers to the use of alternative methods for instruction and adoption of current
information and communications technologies.
Community
The EMP needs to define how Mendocino College can best continue to serve the communities
of Mendocino County and Lake County. Doing this requires analysis, evaluation and planning
for the “optimal mix” of career and technical, transfer, basic skills, special interest and degree
courses and programs offered by the College.
Organization of the Educational Master Plan
Chapter 2 discusses the methodology used in constructing the Educational Master Plan. This
refers to the planning groups, committees and constituencies within the college that
participated in the development of the plan.
Chapter 3 presents information about external and internal forces and trends which are
affecting the College at present and will likely affect the College in the future. This chapter
draws upon information from the college as well as information from State and Federal
agencies. Forecasts for the near-term future are presented.
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Chapter 4 draws upon information from the Program Review documents as well as internal
data to assess current programs and develop planning assumptions for current and future
programs.
Chapter 5 discusses potential trends in pedagogy, instructional delivery and needed
professional development.
Chapter 6 presents a vision for Mendocino College through the year 2018.
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Chapter 2: Methodology
Background: Participants and Process of Planning
At the core of the planning process at Mendocino College is Program Review. The Program
Review process is conducted annually by each academic and student services program and each
administrative department. This is a process of self-assessment in which programs and
departments evaluate areas of strength and weakness, evaluate progress, report upon Student
Learning Outcomes (SLOs) and project their budget needs for the coming year. Programs are
also asked to project their objectives over a rolling three-year period. Program, staffing and
budget information is drawn from Program Review documents as the basis for annual planning
efforts.
For the last ten years, the primary function of the Institutional Master Plan Steering Committee
(IMPSC) has been to coordinate institutional planning efforts, recommend staffing decisions,
and develop processes that improve program review and planning at the college. In Fall 2007,
IMPSC was also given the task of coordinating the production of the Educational Master Plan in
collaboration with its three institutional planning committees: Educational Action Plan
Committee (EAP); Administrative Services Master Plan Committee (ASMPC); and the Physical
Resources Master Plan Committee (PRMPC).
In Spring 2008, the planning structure at Mendocino College was revised and IMPSC was
transformed into a new body, the Planning and Budgeting Committee (PBC) which, true to its
name, brings these two elements of the process into a unified body. Eight standing
committees, representing particular portions of the Program Review process, report their
recommendations to PBC. The eight committees are:
 Staffing
 Facilities (replaces PRMPC)
 Outreach and Marketing
 Professional Development
 Technology
 Educational Action Plan
 Curriculum (subcommittee of the Academic Senate)
 Student Learning Outcomes Team
Additionally, the Vice Presidents stand as a committee to evaluate any information from
Program Review which does not fall under the purview of the standing committees.
Development of the Educational Master Plan
In order to accomplish the task of writing a ten-year educational master plan, IMPSC (and, later,
PBC) identified three primary goals:
1. Collect data necessary to provide context to the Educational Master Plan. Data include
internal and external trends and statistical projections of these trends, where appropriate.
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2. Synthesize the information into trends and implications in order to revise the goals,
objectives and strategies with input from various institutional groups and the larger campus
community, using Program Review.
3. Create a Master Plan document that will guide the College for the next 10 years.
Following upon IMPSC’s directive, EAP formed an Educational Master Plan (EMP) task force
which included Deans Rawitsch and Guleff, and Director of Institutional Research Duffy, who
formed a working group and began the process drafting the EMP by researching existing Master
Plans published by other California Community Colleges.
From this initial research, a preliminary working draft was created in late Fall 2007 and early
Spring 2008, which included these documents:
 A “road map” for the EMP. This document included a chapter-based outline of the
contents of the EMP as well as suggestions regarding which college constituencies
would contribute
 Drafts for Chapters 1, 2 and 3. These chapters provided the context for planning for the
next 7 – 10 years.
In Spring 2008, a subcommittee of the Educational Action Planning (EAP) Committee, composed
of the VP of Education and Student Services, the Instructional Deans, officers of the Academic
Senate and additional faculty began the process of defining the goals and directions for the
College’s master plan, a review of Chapters 1 – 3, and the development of Chapters 4 - 6.
In Fall 2008, the work of the subcommittee was shared with EAP. Throughout the ’08-’09
school year, EAP continued to refine Chapters 1 – 3 and develop Chapters 4-6. Based upon the
input of the full EAP committee, in Fall ’09 a revised draft of the EMP was shared with faculty
constituent groups (Academic Senate, Curriculum Committee) for further review and input
prior to completing an interim draft for the consideration of the Planning and Budget
Committee (PBC). In November ’09, PBC reviewed the EMP and forwarded comments to EAP
for incorporation prior to the EMP being presented to the Board of Trustees in January 2010.
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Chapter 3: Research and Analysis
Introduction
Mendocino College relies on an examination of current conditions and forecasts to provide a
context for educational decision making. This chapter details current conditions and provides a
backdrop for considering new programs, by examining both external and internal trends.
For the purposes of this discussion, external trends, or exogenous factors, are considered to be
largely outside of the control of the College and include factors such as community
demographics; local, state and national economic conditions; state and federal policies and
regulations; and policies of other institutions of higher education. While external trends may
be outside of the direct control of the College, the College may, through its own decisions and
policies, be able to mitigate the effect of a trend or factor upon the operation of the College.
Internal trends, or endogenous factors, are considered to be more directly a consequence of
policies or decisions made by members of the Mendocino College community, including faculty,
staff and students. In many ways, internal trends can be addressed and redirected to a much
higher degree than external trends.
While certain trends are clearly external and certain trends are clearly internal, in many cases,
there is interplay between internal and external trends that tends to blur the boundary.
However, an examination of both current conditions and forecasts of trends helps to provide a
clearer picture of the environment in which education at Mendocino College is situated.
A Word about Forecasting
Attempts are made, where appropriate, to forecast the course of statistical trends, through
mathematical modeling, typically, regression models. While these models may predict the path
that events may take, the results discussed here are not preordained. An underlying
assumption of this type of modeling is that the models predict what is statistically likely to take
place, based upon prior experience and provided there is no policy decision designed to directly
(or indirectly) affect the path. This is especially true of internal trends.
External Trends
The following discussion highlights several trends in the external environment which may affect
the operations of Mendocino College in the near-term.
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Geography
Geographically, the Mendocino-Lake Community College serves an area of roughly 3,200 square
miles. The area encompasses most of Mendocino County and the western portion of Lake
County. The district is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Mendocino-Lake Community College District map. District borders outlined in
black.
The district encompasses eight school districts and serves a population of about 96,000 people.
The main campus is located in Ukiah with service centers in Willits and Lakeport and a research
facility in Point Arena. It is not likely that the borders of the district will change any time in the
near future nor is it likely that other service centers will be added.
Population Changes
Most striking is the combination of demographic trends that are taking place within the
populations of Lake and Mendocino Counties. According to projections from the California
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Department of Finance, the confluence of two trends will markedly alter the complexion of the
population of the two counties served by the College. These trends are:

Earlier estimates from the California Department of Finance and the US Census Bureau
projected that Mendocino County would become much “grayer” than Lake County in
the coming years. However, population changes in Lake County now temper that
estimate. According to the 2010 US Census, 17.7% of Lake County population is 65 or
over compared to 15.4% of Mendocino County population. Overall, though, both
counties are “graying” at a similar rate. The median age of population in Lake County is
45.0 years and the median age of population for Mendocino County is 41.5%. For Lake
County, that is an increase of 5.4% from 2000 (42.7 years) and for Mendocino County, it
is an increase of 6.7% over the 2000 Census (38.9 years). However, Mendocino County
has experienced greater change at the lower end of the age range. In the 2000 Census,
15-19 year olds constituted 7.6% of the population (6,544); in the 2010 Census, that
dropped to 6.4% of the population (5,613). While the population of 15-19 year olds
actually grew in Lake County, from 3,749 to 4,190; the proportion of the population
remained about the same… 6.4% in the 2000 Census v. 6.5% in the 2010 Census.

Overall, the population in both counties has seen a major shift in the ethnicity of the
population. In Lake County, the Hispanic population has grown from 6,639 (11.3% of
total) in the 2000 Census to 11,088 (17.4% of total) in the 2010 Census, an increase of
67%. In Mendocino County, the Hispanic population has grown from 14,213 (16.47% of
total) in the 2000 Census to 19,505 (22.2% of total) in the 2010 Census. It is further
projected that the proportion of population identified as Hispanic will continue to grow
in each county over the next 20 years or longer.
These changes will be taking place within a context of very limited population growth. Between
2000 and 2010, Mendocino County grew from 86,265 to 87,841, about 1.8%. Lake County
population grew from 58,309 to 64,665, an increase of 10.9%. However, the larger proportion
of the growth in the section of Lake County which lies outside district boundaries. For example,
fully 1/3 of the Lake County population growth was in the City of Clearlake. The growth
measure by the 2010 Census is well below that projected by the California Department of
Finance projections which projected growth of about 1% per year for Mendocino County.
One aspect of the population change is the overall decline in the proportion of the prime
college-going population, ages 17 – 26. The declining 17-26 year-old population is significant
because 53.2% of currently enrolled students in Fall 2011 and 83.5% of First-time students in
Fall 2011 are within this age-group. Geographically, 50.9% of all enrolled students from
Mendocino County and 57.9% of all enrolled students from Lake County in Fall 2011 are within
this age group. Once enrolled, students in the 17-26 age-group generally enroll as full-time
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rather than part-time students and tend to have higher rates of persistence than other groups
of students.
The growth of the Hispanic population in both counties may require a substantial alteration in
the course offerings of the College. Not only is the Hispanic proportion of the population
growing (see below) but population data from the 2010 US Census indicates that the Hispanic
population is considerably younger than the majority (White) population in Mendocino and
Lake Counties. As shown in Figure 2, the Hispanic population for the two combined counties is
skewed to the lower end of the age scale and the White population to the upper end of the age
scale.
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Under 15 15-17
18-19
20-21
22-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-49
50-64
65+
IPEDs Age Group
Hispanic/Latino Any Race
White Alone/Not Hisp.
Figure 2: Proportional distribution by IPEDs age groups, of Hispanic population and White
population in Mendocino and Lake counties, combined. Source: 2010 US Census.
The largest single proportion of the Hispanic population, 32.1% is under 15 years of age. In fact,
50% of the combined Hispanic population is 24 years of age or less. This translates to 15,294
people. In contrast, the highest proportion of the White population 29% (31,385) is in the 50-64
age-group. Among White residents of Mendocino and Lake counties, 62.3% (67,450) are 40
years of age or older and only 22.8% (24614) 24 years of age or younger.
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Traditional college-age students (18-24) comprise 11.8% (3,595) of the combined Hispanic
populations of the two counties. In contract, the same age-group comprises only 6.6% (7,096)
of the White population.
The Native American population, which comprises about 3.3% of the population of Mendocino
and Lake Counties, has characteristics which resemble both the White and the Hispanic
populations, as shown in Figure 3.
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Under 15 15-17
18-19
20-21
22-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-49
50-64
65+
IPEDs Age Groups
White Alone/Not Hisp.
Amer. Ind/Alaska Nat. Alone Not Hisp
Figure 3: Proportional distribution by IPEDs age groups, of Native American population and
White population in Mendocino and Lake counties, combined. Source: 2010 US Census.
Like the Hispanic population, there is a considerable bulge for Native Americans at the younger
end of the spectrum. About 25% of the Native American population in Mendocino and Lake
Counties combined is 15 or younger. However, like the White population, there is a
considerable bulge at the older end of the spectrum. Slightly more than 40% of the Native
American population is 40 years of age or older. While neither bulge is as pronounced as that
for the Hispanic population at the younger end or the White population as the older end of the
age spectrum, the Native American population has a distinct bipolar distribution.
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In-district population
The US Census releases limited information from the census based upon zip codes. Using the
zip codes that are within District boundaries, we can learn several things about the population the
College serves. In 2010, there were 96,126 residents of zip codes within District boundaries.
This is an increase of 3,722 residents, or, 4% growth over the 2000 Census. There was a minor
shift in the distribution of residents by gender. In 2000, in-District residents were 49.8% Male
and 50.2% Female. In the 2010 Census, in-District residents were 50.1% Male and 49.9%
Female.
One of the most notable shifts within the in-District population is age distribution. In the 2000
Census, 26.2% of the population was 18 or under and 24.9% were 55 or older. In the 2010
Census, the 18 or under group dropped to 22.7% and the 55 or over group increased to 31.2%
Using zip codes of residence as a means of identifying where people live, it is estimated by the
US Census that Hispanics constitute 24.4% of in-District Mendocino County residents and 17.3%
of in-district Lake County residents. In the 2000 Census, Hispanics constituted 18.0% of inDistrict Mendocino County residents and 13.0% of in-District Lake County residents. Combined,
Hispanics represented 16.4% of the in-District population in the 2000 Census. In the 2010
Census, Hispanics represent 21.9% of the total in-District population as shown in Figure 4. This
means that Hispanics are the second largest ethnic group within the District.
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4.24%
1.55%
0.82%
American Indian and Alaska
Native
Asian
21.95%
Black or African American
Hispanic or Latino
0.12%
0.15%
2.73%
68.44%
Native Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander
Some other race
Two or more races
White
Figure 4: Proportional distribution of in-District population as determined by Zip Code of
residence. Source: 2010 US Census.
The largest numbers of Hispanic residents in Mendocino County reside in Ukiah. A total of 9.257
residents of Ukiah are Hispanic, representing 62.5% of all in-district Hispanics in Mendocino
County. In Lake County in-district, the largest number of Hispanics resides in Kelseyville. The
2,456 Hispanic residents represent 42.38% of all in-district residents in Lake County who
identified as Hispanic.
Economic Indicators
The number of individuals living below the poverty line in the Mendocino College service area is
higher than the state average. According to the American Community Survey (US Census
Bureau), 15.8% of all Californians lived below the poverty line in 2010, up from 13.1% in 2006.
For Lake County, 22.0% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2010 compared to
17.4% in 2006. In Mendocino County, 20.0% of the population lived below the poverty line in
2010 compared to 16.9% in 2006. Within both counties, more than 30% of children live below
22
the poverty line. These statistics place Lake County and Mendocino County among the ten
counties in California with the highest poverty rates (American Community Survey, 2010).
This low socio-economic condition of the district is underlined by other indicators. For example,
the median household income for the State is $57,708 in 2010 whereas it is $40,536 in
Mendocino County and $34,910 in Lake County. For California as a whole, this is a decline of
about $4,000 from the 2001 estimate. For Lake County, it is a decline of about $6,000 and for
Mendocino County, a decline of only about $2000. As these economic indicators suggest, while
the recession has impacted the California economy, it has been particularly difficult for Lake
and Mendocino Counties. Continued poverty may present a serious challenge for many families
and individuals in the Mendocino College district.
K-12 Education
In Mendocino County, according to the California Department of Education (ED-Data), the total
number of students in K-12 continues to decline from 15,963 in 1996-97 to 13,620 in 2007-08
to 12,946 in 2009-10. By comparison, the overall K-12 population in Lake County has dropped
slightly from 10,187 in 1996-97 to 9,809 in 2007-08 to 8,857 in 2009-10. In 2009-10, the
number of students enrolled in grade 12 is at historical lows for both counties. In Lake County,
the 664 students enrolled in grade 12 in 2009-10 is less than the previous low in 2002-03. In
Mendocino County, the 1,076 students enrolled in grade 12 are at about the same level as
2006-07. Within the overall picture, a particular trend suggests that the actual number of local
high school graduates will decline over the next decade, as shown in Table 1, which looks at
enrollment projections at several key points.
Grade Level
Mendocino
Lake
Total
1.058
664
1,722
7th Grade
986
708
1,694
1st Grade
982
673
1,655
12th Grade
Table 1: K-12 Enrollments in Mendocino and Lake Counties, 2009-10. Source: California Dept. of
Education
Table 1 illustrates the shrinking enrollments in K-12 in Mendocino County. Based upon these
statistics, we can expect a decline of about 6.8% below current levels in the number of
graduates from Mendocino County schools in 2015, when the 7th grade cohort graduates.
Further out, in 2022, the cohort currently in 1st grade will be roughly the same size as the 7th
grade cohort. In Lake County, however, there seems to be a projected resurgence in high
school graduates in the future. The 2009-10 7th grade cohort represents a 6.6% increase over
23
the 2009-10 12th grade cohort with a drop off in the 1st grade cohort, scheduled to graduate in
2022. However, these projections will also feel the negative of the large drop-out rates
experienced in both counties and population out-migration.
According to the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC), the average capture
rate (the percentage of in-district high school graduates attending Mendocino College the
following year) has been fairly steady. Over the period 1998-2008, the average capture rate for
Mendocino College is .242 (24.2%), ranging from a low of .209 in 2002 to a high of .278 in 2005.
Generally, the capture rate for Mendocino College has been considerably less than the
statewide capture rate for all community colleges. For all California community colleges, the
average capture rate has been .321.
In 2008, the gap has narrowed significantly, from both ends. The capture rate for Mendocino
College grew from .209 (20.9% of in-District high school graduates) to .314 (31.4%) in 2007
before slipping back to .298 for 2008. At the same time, the capture rate for all community
colleges in California declined by 6.9%, from .320 to .298 in 2007. However, the State
rebounded to an overall capture rate of .323 in 2008. For 2009, however, the capture rate
dropped precipitously. According to CPEC data, the capture rate for Mendocino County
dropped to .0834 and the capture rate for Lake County dropped to .059. However, inspection
of College data indicates that the CPEC data is overly conservative and may reflect our own
difficulties with early Datatel submissions to the State. Looking at data from our Datamart, the
capture rate is estimated to be about 18.2% overall, still considerably below projections in
Figure 5. CPEC also reports issues with data reported from the individual high schools.
0.500
0.450
0.350
0.267
0.252
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000
0.298
0.303
0.300
0.250
Forecasted capture rate
Actual capture rate
0.400
0.251
0.232
0.231 0.230
0.314
0.278
0.233
0.240
0.209
0.288
0.284
0.298
0.293 0.302
0.307
0.311
24
Figure 5: Actual and forecast Capture Rate for graduating in-district High School graduates
based upon CPEC capture rate data.
Figure 5 shows a slow linear growth pattern. The predicted rate is 0.311 in 2015, slightly
exceeding our highest-ever capture rate of 0.303 in 2006.
Employment and the Economy
Employment as an indicator of economic activity has grown very slowly in the two counties
served by Mendocino College. According to the California Department of Labor, employment in
Mendocino County has grown by 4,970 employed individuals between December, 1990 and
December 2007, an overall growth of 18.1%. This is less than 1% growth per year over the past
17 years. By comparison, employment in California grew by 41.4% over the same period.
As a consequence of the economic turmoil of the past 36 months, the employment situation in
Mendocino and Lake Counties has suffered. In July 2009, the number of employed people in
Mendocino County dropped to 39,000, a decline of 1,880 in 12 months and a level lower than in
July 2000. Similarly, in Lake County, the number of employed dropped to 21,590. As of August
2011, unemployment in Mendocino County was estimated to be 10.7% and in Lake County,
19.7%. By comparison, the overall unemployment rate for California was 11.9% (Source:
California EDD). Table 2 summarizes employment by industry for Mendocino County.
1990-2011
CES Industry Title
!990
2000
2007
Total Farm
1,430
2,020
2,080
1,900
1,630
200
Natural Resources, Mining &
Construction
1,630
2,050
1,550
1,710
1,360
-270
Durable Goods
2,150
3,120
1,480
1,080
920
-1,230
Nondurable Goods
1,430
1,690
1,300
1,390
1,180
-250
540
660
760
710
680
140
4,340
4,720
4,720
4,360
4,390
50
Transportation, Warehousing
and Utilities
750
710
570
620
530
-220
Information
400
510
380
360
310
-90
1,130
990
1,250
1,180
1,180
50
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Financial Activities
2009
August
2011
Change
25
Professional and Business
Services
1,210
1,720
1,860
1,880
1,880
670
Educational and Health
Services
3,230
3,430
3,780
3,650
3,650
420
Leisure and Hospitality
3,120
3,650
4,150
3,800
3,810
690
Other Services
770
790
770
710
740
-30
Federal Government
350
290
250
320
280
-70
State Government
500
490
490
620
580
80
Local Government
4,380
5,730
6,940
5,650
5,970
1,590
27,360
32,570
32,330
29,940
29,080
1,720
Total Wage and Salary
Table 2: Employment by Industry in Mendocino County, selected years. Source: California Economic
Development Department (EDD)
In terms of Total Wage and Salary employment, Mendocino County has shown some growth
between 1990 and 2011, with a net overall increase of 1,720 jobs. However, if measured from
2000, the news is much grimmer. Between 2000 and 2009, Mendocino County lost a total of
2,630 jobs, nearly 10%. Between 2009 and August 2011, Mendocino County lost another 860
jobs.
Within the declining economy, there is substantial change occurring. Mendocino County
continues its transition to a post-industrial, service-based economy. The largest growth
segments over this period continue to be Local Government (1590) and Leisure and Hospitality
(690), despite an overall drop in employment from 2009 to 2011. To an extent, this has offset
losses in Durable Goods Manufacturing (-1230), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (-250) and
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities (-220). One indicator of the effect of the recession
has been the drop in Natural Resources, Mining and Construction. While the overall decline
over this period (1990 – 2011) is 270 jobs, between 2009 and 2011, the decline in this industry
was 350 jobs.
Lake County, like Mendocino County, is making the transition to a post-industrial, service-based
economy as shown in Table 3. One indicator of this transition is the loss of 750 jobs in Natural
Resources, Mining and Construction being offset by the growth of 720 jobs in Educational and
Health Services. One big difference between the two counties’ transition is the growth in Total
Farm employment (940 jobs between 1990 and 2011) reflecting the growth of the wine
industry and viticulture in eastern Lake County.
26
In absolute numbers of employment, Lake County has also experienced growth similar to
Mendocino County, with 2,850 new jobs developed between 1990 and 2009. However, nearly
300 were lost to the recession by August 2011. Proportionally, however, their growth has been
much greater. In 1990, 10,710 people were employed in Lake County. By 2009, that had risen
to 13,560, a total growth of 26.6%. As with Mendocino County, this growth also reflects the
loss of 1,410 jobs between 2007 and 2009 and further job loss between 2009 and August 2011.
The loss of 250 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality reflects the closing of the Konocti Harbor Resort
area. Table 3 shows the economic growth by industry for Lake County.
1999-2011
1990
2000
2007
2009
August
2011
530
610
960
1,140
1,470
940
1,120
710
860
630
370
-750
Durable Goods
200
230
120
100
70
-130
Nondurable Goods
180
260
200
250
210
30
Wholesale Trade
150
210
160
190
140
-10
1,640
2,000
2,120
1,950
2,000
340
Transportation, Warehousing and
Utilities
120
220
660
570
510
390
Information
150
170
170
130
130
-20
Financial Activities
630
440
430
380
340
-290
Professional and Business Services
430
1,070
650
630
580
150
Educational and Health Services
1,340
1,720
2,220
2,190
2,060
720
Leisure and Hospitality
1,100
1,300
1,420
1,450
1,200
100
Other Services
360
360
340
330
360
0
Federal Government
180
140
170
130
230
50
State Government
180
180
160
190
200
20
Local Government
2,400
3,520
4,330
3,300
3,390
990
10,710
13,130
14,970
13,560
13,290
2,580
CES Industry Title
Total Farm
Natural Resources, Mining and
Construction
Retail Trade
Total Wage and Salary
Change
Table 3: Employment by Industry in Lake County, selected years. Source: California Employment
27
Development Department (EDD)
A fundamental issue in assessing the growth in Lake County is that it is not possible to
disaggregate the data to reflect the portion of the County included in the District from the
portion of the County outside of District boundaries. With most of the population growth
taking place in the south and east portions of the county (outside District boundaries), one
might assume that the large part of this economic growth may also have occurred outside the
area served by the College.
A recent report by the Public Policy Institute of California (May, 2007) suggests that California is
facing a looming shortage of college-educated individuals to fill the workforce. In the past, this
gap has been filled by in-migration. However, due to economic factors in California (e.g.
housing costs, energy costs) this supply will likely dwindle and California will need to look
inward. To some extent, this is already the case for Lake County and Mendocino County. As
shown in Table 4, both Lake County and Mendocino County were substantially below California
in the number of college-trained workers in 2005.
Education
Level
Mendocino County
Lake County
California
2005
2010
2005
2010
2005
2010
Associate's
Degree
5,828
4,852
3,459
3769
1,757,763
1,831,387
BA/BS
9,096
7,779
4,393
4581
4,315,638
4,602,565
Grad/Prof
5,275
5,412
2,187
2511
2,395,589
2,650,962
Total
20,199
18,043
10,039
10861
8,648,990
Total
Population (25
yrs. and older)
59,126
59,194
44,436
44,240
23,080,916
24,097,200
Percentage
College
Educated
34.16%
30.5%
22.6%
24.6%
36.69%
37.7%
Table 4: Educational Attainment among adults 25 years and older (Source: US Census
Bureau, American Fact Finder)
28
More recently, it has been stated by various sources that California will need to have a larger
population of college-trained adults to pull the economy forward. However, it appears that
Mendocino and Lake County are still behind the State, as a whole. Overall, 37.7% of
Californians are estimated to have a college degree. This is up about one percentage point from
the 2005 estimates. Lake County, according to 2010 estimates is still far behind the State, with
only 24.6% of adults with a college degree. However, this is up two percentage points from
2005.
Mendocino County is somewhat closer to the State totals than Lake County. Unfortunately,
Mendocino County has experienced a “brain drain” in the past five years. In 2005, it was
estimated that 34.16% of adults over the age of 25 had a college degree. In the 2010 estimate,
that percentage has dropped to 30.5%. In 2005 Mendocino County was only 2.5 percentage
points below the State total. In 2010, that gap increased to 7.2 percentage points.
Projected Job Growth
Information sources from both the State of California and the Federal government project
continued growth in the sectors where most people are currently employed. Overall, the
California Employment development Department (CEDD) projects an employment increase of
6.2%, from an annual average employment of 118,180 in 2008 to an annual average
employment of 125,540 in 2008 for the North Coast region1. This is an estimated net growth of
727 jobs per year. Professional and Business Services are estimated to have the largest
proportional growth over the period, 19.2% with the largest absolute growth in Retail Trade,
with 1,930 jobs.
Within the region, the CEDD projects that each year between 20018 and 2018, on average, 110
job openings will be in occupations requiring an AA degree and another 117 will require
postsecondary vocational education.
In the past, Registered Nurse has been considered as a principal growth area for jobs. Previous
projections suggested a growth of 11.3% between 2006 and 2016. However, in the more
recent projections, for 2008-2018, two other occupations eclipse Registered Nurse. Physical
Therapist Assisting has a projected growth rate of 20% over the 2008-2018 period (about 10
positions). Similarly, Veterinary Technician is expected to grow by 18% (20 jobs) over the same
period. However, Registered Nursing is projected to generate many more jobs, 260, than the
others combined.
The projection of “Fastest Growing” occupations continues to evolve as the nature of the
regional economy and population evolves. Table 5 illustrates the Fastest Growing Occupations
CEDD does not disaggregate for Mendocino and Lake Counties. The “North Coast” region includes Mendocino,
Lake, Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.
1
29
in the North Coast region requiring AA degrees or Postsecondary Training (e.g. Certificate
program) from three studies, 2001, 2006 and 2008.
30
Fastest Growing Occupations 2002-2012
Fastest Growing Occupations 2006-2016
Fastest Growing Occupations 2008-2018
Respiratory Therapist
Environmental Science and Protection
Technician
Medical Records and Health Information
Technician
Computer Support Specialist
Paralegal and Legal Assistant
Registered Nurses
Computer Support Specialists
Gaming dealers
Slot Key Persons
Emergency
Medical
Technicians
and
Paramedic
Registered Nurses
Dental Hygienists
Hairdressers, Hairstylists and Cosmetologists
Welders, Cutters Solderers
Automotive Service Technicians
Medical Secretaries
Table 5: Fastest Growing Occupations 2002-2012 v. 2006-2016 v. 2008-2018, North Coast Region.
Source: California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov)
In the 2002 projections, emphasis was on medical paraprofessionals, “white-collar”
paraprofessionals and environmental technicians. In 2006, while the medical paraprofessional
positions still are considered among the top 5, at least two of the positions are now in the
gaming industry, reflecting the growth of that sector of the economy.
31
Occupations with Most Job Openings 20012012


Automotive Service and Technician
Fitness Trainers and Aerobic
Instructors
 Gaming Dealers
 Licensed Professional Nurses and
Licensed Vocational Nurses
 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel
Engine Specialists
Occupations with Most Job Openings 2006 Registered Nurses
2016
 Gaming Dealers
 Automotive Service Technicians and
Mechanics
Occupations with Most Job Openings 2008 Registered Nurses
2018
 Automotive Service Technicians and
Mechanics
 Medical Secretaries
 Licensed Practical Nurses
Table 6: Occupations with most job openings requiring AA degree or Postsecondary vocational
education. Comparison of 2002 projection, 2006 projection and 2008 projection. Source,
California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).
The projections provided by the CEDD provide an occupational roadmap regarding where
change is expected. This change reflects both new jobs in the occupation as well as
replacement jobs within the occupation. Table 7 abstracts the ten occupations with the most
positive change (new jobs plus replacements) and the ten occupations with the least change.
This includes all occupations and not those which require an AA or some other Postsecondary
training.
32
Overall positive change
2008
2018
Net
Change
Retail Sales Workers
8,260
9,320
1,060
12.8%
Retail Sales Persons
Health Diagnosing and Treating
Practitioners
Cashiers
3,580
4,220
640
17.9%
2,870
3,770
3,250
4,130
380
360
13.2%
9.5%
Food and Beverage Serving Workers
Construction Trades Workers
5,480
4,570
5,810
4,840
330
270
6.0%
5.9%
Registered Nurses
1,650
1,910
260
15.8%
Business Operations Specialists
2,160
2,410
250
11.6%
2,180
2,430
250
11.5%
5,170
5,400
2006
2016
230
Net
Change
4.4%
Percent
Change
1.090
1,350
1,670
1,070
1,300
1,620
-70
-50
-50
-6.4%
-1.3%
-1.3%
Fallers (Tree Cutter)
Packaging and Filling Machine
Operators and Tenders
Postal Service Mail Sorters,
Processors, and Processing Machine
Operators
280
240
-40
-14.3%
400
360
-40
-10.0%
90
60
-30
-33.3%
Gaming Cage Workers
120
90
-30
-25.0%
Payroll and Timing Clerks
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical
and Executive
Correctional Officers and Jailers
280
250
-30
-10.7%
990
1,020
960
990
-30
-30
-3.0%
-2.9%
Combined Food Preparation and
Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
Other Personal Care and Service
Workers
Overall negative
Forest, Conservations and Logging
Workers
Housekeeping Cleaners
Law Enforcement Workers
Percent
Change
Top Executives
1,820
1,790
-30
-1.6%
Table 7: Ten occupations with the most positive change and ten occupations with the
most negative change, 2008-2018, North Coast region. Source: California Economic
Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).
33
The twenty occupations abstracted from the CEDD data indicate the continued change in
emphasis in the North Coast economy. In the 2006 estimates, the declines are in areas that
reflect a loss of manufacturing jobs, natural resource exploitation and construction. For 2008,
that remains true although there are small declines in white collar occupations. The “declines”
reflect an assumption that declines as a result of the recession have pretty much “bottomed
out” and there are few jobs left in these occupations to eliminate.
Alternatively, the ten growing occupations in 2006 reflected reflect growth primarily in the
retail industry and food service industries. Education, both K-12 and postsecondary also will be
a growing sector; however many of these positions will be replacement positions rather than
growth. Updated to 2008, there is still projected growth in retail and food services. Growth in
the health care area has displaced Education as a likely growth area for educated, skilled
workers. It is interesting that growth in “Construction Trades” is forecast. This must reflect
some assumptions for the “out years” regarding the local economy.
Moving beyond our immediate economic area, Table 8 shows the top five occupations requiring
either an AA/AS degree or Postsecondary vocational training in each of the counties/regions to
the south of Mendocino County and Lake County which comprise the greater Bay Area. The
exceptions are Solano County and San Jose region where only three occupations meet this
required education profile.
34
Region
Oakland
Napa
Sonoma
SF Metro
San Jose
Solano
Occupation
Registered Nurses
Medical Secretaries
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
Dental Hygienists
Registered Nurses
Massage Therapists
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
Insurance Sales Agents
Registered Nurses
Medical Secretaries
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Dental Hygienists
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Biological Technicians
Dental Hygienists
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
Surgical Technologists
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Paralegals and Legal Assistants
Dental Hygienists
Registered Nurses
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
Medical Secretaries
Total Change
4530
1640
1100
1100
730
250
160
40
40
30
760
310
230
100
100
920
220
170
140
110
480
320
130
1,130
270
260
Table 8: Occupations requiring either an AA/AS or Postsecondary vocational training
with greatest growth projected, 2008-2018. Note: Oakland includes Alameda and
Contra cost counties; SF Metro includes Marin, San Francisco and Sane Mateo counties;
San Jose includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Source: California Economic
Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).
Throughout the region, Registered Nurse is the single occupation with the greatest potential for
growth, even though it does not make the list for either the SF Metro region or the San Jose
region. This data also suggests a continued need for various Allied Health professions and
“Fitness and Aerobics Instructors”.
However, these are occupations which our sister institutions in those areas already have robust
programs. Every community college district serving the six areas in Table 8 maintains a robust
Nursing program. The number of Registered Nurses produced by these programs grew by more
than 24% between 2006-07 and 2010-11, with growth from 1,154 graduates to 1,432 graduates
per year. As shown in Figure 6, the average number of graduates from community college
35
districts serving the six regions in Table 8 is close to exceeding the projected annual need in the
all of the occupations shown in Table 8.
185
Fitness Trainer
28
221
Medical Secretary
78
Biological Tech
22
Veterinary Tech
14
8.75
Surgical Tech
11
34
79.2
113
95.6
Dental Hygienist
141
LPN/LVN
225.2
667
Registered Nurse
1340
0
200
400
Average Annual Need (2008 - 2018)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Average Annual Grads (2006-07 thru 2010-11)
Figure 6: Comparison of average number of graduates produced from community colleges in
greater Bay Area, 2006-07 thru 2010-11 and the average annual need for occupations 2008-2018.
Sources: CCCCO Datamart and California Economic Development Department
(http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).
In only two occupations, “Fitness Trainer” and “Medical Secretary,” does the projected annual
need exceed the average annual number of graduates.
Fastest Growing Occupations
Table 9, on the other hand, shows the estimated “Fastest Growing Occupations” for the six areas
making up the greater Bay Area. For each county/region, these are the positions which are
estimated have the greatest percentage growth between 2008 and 2018. Virtually all of these
occupations require either a Bachelor’s degree or higher or substantially less than a community
college program. Only one occupation, “Fitness and Aerobics Instructor” is also on the list of
occupations requiring an Associate’s degree or Postsecondary training shown in Table 8.
36
County/Region
Oakland
Occupation
Biomedical Engineers
Home Health Aides
Physician Assistants
Financial Examiners
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors
Napa
Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technicians
Pharmacy Aides
Personal and Home Care Aides
Printing Workers
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers,
and Computer Network Archite
Personal and Home Care Aides
Tax Examiners, Collectors, and Revenue Agents
Mixing and Blending Machine Workers
Environmental Scientists, Including Health
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
Biomedical Engineers
Biochemists and Biophysicists
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers,
and Computer Network Architect
Personal and Home Care Aides
Biomedical Engineers
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers,
and Computer Network Architect
Personal and Home Care Aides
Home Health Aides
Advertising Sales Agents
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers,
and Computer Network Archite
Physical Therapist Aides
Home Health Aides
Sonoma
SF Metro
San Jose
Solano County
Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators
Chiropractors
2008-2018
Change
180
2,250
310
40
1,100
% Change
64.3
50.6
41.9
40
40
% Growth
5.1
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.4
Education
Level
5
11
5
5
7
20
20
350
40
50
50
49.3
44.4
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.7
6
11
11
xx
30
2,310
30
40
160
40
480
450
1,770
42.9
63.5
60
50
48.5
44.4
94.1
46.9
46.6
3.6
5
4.8
4.1
4
3.7
6.9
3.9
3.9
5
11
5
9
5
2
5
2
2
1,980
10,460
250
44.8
43.1
65.8
3.8
3.6
5.2
5
11
5
2,740
5,850
1,380
270
49.1
48.2
43.5
36.5
4.1
4
3.7
3.2
5
11
11
10
40
20
460
44.4
40
39
3.7
3.4
3.3
5
11
11
110
10
37.9
33.3
3.3
2.9
5
2
Table 9: Occupations with fastest growth projected, 2008-2018. Note: Oakland includes Alameda and
Contra cost counties; SF Metro includes Marin, San Francisco and Sane Mateo counties; San Jose includes
Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Source: California Economic Development Department
(http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).
37
Education Key.for Table 9
1 - First Professional Degree - LLD/MD
2 - Doctoral Degree
3 - Master's Degree
4 - Bachelor's Degree or Higher and Some Work Experience
5 - Bachelor's Degree
6 - Associate Degree
7 - Post-Secondary Vocational Education
8 - Work Experience in a Related Occupation
9 - Long-Term On-the-Job Training
10 - Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training
11 - Short-Term On-the-Job Training
xx - No information available
Several caveats should be kept in mind when considering these projections:
 Projected job growth will not be linear. All employment is subject to larger economic
and demographic forces. The recession and the accompanying downturn, for instance
severely negated earlier job growth projections.
 This projection reflects the current economic downturn. As a result, many of the
occupational and industrial projections reflect the impact of recession-driven
retrenchment.
 The projections look principally at absolute change in jobs, either positive or negative.
Even in occupations where there may be little or no absolute growth, there may be
considerable opportunities arising as a result of promotions, retirements, emigration or
unforeseen demand.
 Projections do not address the influence of the so-called “underground economy”
known to exist in Mendocino and Lake Counties.
Relationships with 4-Year Institutions
According to the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC), in Fall 2008, among
Mendocino County high school graduates that go directly into higher education, the majority,
about 65.8% (263 of 400), attend Mendocino College. Among the 26% of in-District high school
graduates that attend other community colleges, 31 selected Santa Rosa Junior College.
Mendocino College, however, does not fare as well among in-district Lake County high school
graduates who go on to higher education. Only 44.4% of those students (87 of 196) select
Mendocino College compared to 33.6% (66 of 196) who opt to attend another community
college. Of that group, the largest number, 44, selected Santa Rosa Junior College. Among the
high school graduates in 2008, 43 in-district residents of Lake County and 85 in-District
38
residents of Mendocino County attended either a UC or CSU directly. Of the 128 total
graduates, 52 attended a UC campus and 76 attended a CSU campus.
In terms of transfers, Mendocino College successfully transfers students to both the UC system
(principally UC Davis) and the CSU system (principally Sonoma State, Humboldt State and
Sacramento State). Figure 7 illustrates actual and projected transfers to UC and CSU system
schools.
120
100
114
108
101
99
97
80
111
91
86
88
86
84
82
80
78
13
12
12
12
72
60
40
23
20
14
7
18
18
13
18
8
14
11
13
0
UC
CSU
Figure 7: Actual and projected transfers from Mendocino College to UC and CSU. Source
CPEC.
Using a forecast model, transfers to UC are projected (dotted line) to decline through 2014-15
while transfers to CSU schools are projected (dotted line) to grow slightly from 72 in 2009-10 to
86 in 2010/11 and then slowly tail off to 78 in 2014/15. The UC projections, however, are based
upon a very small number of students and are likely to improve with a recently renewed Career
& Transfer Center. The CSU project reflects a recent decline from a high of 114 in 2005 to 72 in
2009-10.
39
Mendocino College is in a somewhat unique position in that we have little or no higher
education competition within the District. Within the District, students can, however, access
distance education from any available public or private provider. In terms of physical facilities,
though, only Dominican University and Sonoma State University2 have service centers within
the District. Any other feasible provider, be it a community college or a 4-year public institution
is outside the District. Both Yuba College and the College of the Redwoods have facilities within
easy driving distance of population centers within the District. Santa Rosa Junior College (SRJC),
the largest community college north of San Francisco (enrollment in excess of 35,000) is more
than an hour’s drive from Ukiah. Moreover, SRJC’s facilities expansion has been directed to
southern Sonoma County, rather than northern Sonoma County, so there is a smaller likelihood
that commute times to SRJC will shrink in the future. However, because the fees of the
community colleges are relatively equal (barring small local differences) there are students who
opt to drive out of the district for their education.
Students opting to start at a UC or a CSU campus face two financial barriers. First, the basic
fees at UC and CSU campuses are considerably higher than the typical fees at a California
Community College, as shown in Table 10. Over the past several years, the fees at both the
University of California and the CSU have grown considerably. From 2006-07 to 2010-11, UC
fees have increased by 72.3%. During the same period, CSU fees have increased 70.4%. On the
other hand, fees at the California Community Colleges have increased only 13.0%. This fee
increase certainly tempers the number of students who may transfer from Mendocino to a 4
year school.
2
The Dominican University service center is located in Ukiah. It offers bachelor’s degree programs in Humanities,
Cultural Studies and a Bachelor in Business/Strategic Management. Interestingly, their website stresses that
getting an Associate Degree at Mendocino College is the “first step” and it emphasizes the “streamlined”
articulation agreement between the two schools. The Sonoma State Service Center offers a Teacher Credentialing
program on the Ukiah campus.
40
Year
UC
CSU
CCC
1999-00
$3903
$1830
$330
2000-01
$3964
$1839
$330
2001-02
$3859
$1876
$330
2002-03
$4017
$2005
$330
2003-04
$5530
$2572
$540
2004-05
$6312
$2916
$780
2005-06
$6802
$3164
$690
2006-07
$6802
$3164
$690
2007-08
$7517
$3521
$600
2008-09
$8020
$3797
$600
2009-10
$9,311
$4,893
$780
2010-11
$11,279
$5,390
$780
2011-12 (Projected)
$13,218
$6,422
$1.080
Table 10: Total Fees for a Full-time Student (in-state) in real dollars for 2 semesters.
Source: CPEC
It should be noted that these are closer to the average fees a student may be charged. The
inclusion of local campus fees, especially at the UC, allows actual fees at campuses to vary
widely. In fact, UC Davis has the highest undergraduate fee structure in the system.
The second financial barrier is simply the cost of living. UC campuses are situated in many of
the highest cost of living areas in the state (e.g. Berkeley, Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa
Barbara, and Davis) where basic costs for rent, food, and utilities are considerably more
expensive than Ukiah. Students opting to commute from their home residence within the
District to either a UC or CSU campus face continued rising gasoline prices. Not reflected in this
table are the fee increases enacted for the 2009-10 year. For community colleges, per unit fees
41
have been increased to $36/unit. Fees will likely increase to $46/unit for Summer 2012.
However, UC has implemented major increases and projects a further increase in fees of 32%
for Spring 2010 and Fall 2010.
State Budget Concerns
Clearly, the budget of the State of California is an external force which directly impacts
Mendocino College, either positively or negatively. State budgets typically reflect the “boombust” cycle of the State economy. State funding is the primary provider of financial support at
community colleges. As we move through the “bust” cycle, this will mean reduced funding to
Mendocino College in the form of:



Little or no annual “Cost of Living Adjustments” (COLA)
Enrollment caps/funding cuts
Matching funds for facilities
The imposition of enrollment caps may place us in a position of conflict with regard to
pressures to serve more students, since the “caps” limit the number of additional FTES which
the State proposes to fund. Since student fees provide about 11% of the funding for
community colleges, this may lead to hard decisions on enrollment. In recent years, California
Community Colleges have been subjected to funding cuts from State General Fund in various
ways. It is likely that further cuts as well as fee increases may be experienced in 2011/12
pending State tax collections. In out years, further funding reductions may be implemented
depending upon California’s economic recovery.
According to CPEC, in 2010-11 the State supports, through General Fund allocations, the
University of California at a rate of $12,389/FTES, down from $14,719/FTES in 2007-08. The CSU
is funded at $7,570/FTES in 2010-11, down from $8,344/FTES in 2007-08. Lastly, community
colleges are funded at a rate of $4,997/FTES in 2010-11, down from $5,489/FTES in 2007-08.
The defeat of Proposition 92 (February, 2008) means that community colleges will remain
within the Prop 98 funding mechanism. While there are several formulae within Proposition 98
which control funding, the basics are:


Funding is linked to growth in the K-12 population
Funding is a minimum of 39% of the General Fund
Within the Prop 98 funding, community colleges generally receive less than 11% of the funding
made available under Prop 98
42
Community Needs and Demands
While most of the external trends are functions of events or forces at the national or state
level, Mendocino College also needs to be sensitive to the changing needs and demands of the
community which it serves. This means reviewing the mix of academic programs and courses
offered. In a period of limited resources, the College may not be able to be “all things to all
people” and will need to decide on measured responses to particular constituencies. For
example, the development and offering of a new degree or vocational program may not be
possible within the College’s current level of resources. The college will need to evolve the
process for deciding on the allocation of resources for various programmatic needs and
community services or the development of new, alternative funding sources.
Internal Trends
Internally, the trends which affect the College the most are related to its student population. In
many respects, the student population is representative of the greater community which the
College serves.
Student Enrollment: Gender
Since Fall 2000, the proportional distribution of students according to gender has been
remarkably stable, as shown in Figure 8A. Over time, the student body at Mendocino College
has averaged 63.0% female and 37.0% male. Over the course of semesters between Fall 2000
and Spring 2011, there has been less than a percentage point of variance from the average
values in any given semester. However, the gender distribution has been different for first-time
students. Among first-time students, the gender proportion has been more or less equal, as
shown in Figure 8B, with an average semester distribution of 51.9% of first-time students
female and 48.1% of first-time students male. Over time, there has been a shift in the
proportions so that the female/male distribution has moved closer to a 50-50 division in any
given semester. In fact, in Fall 2009 and Spring 2010, the proportion of first-time students who
were males exceeded 50%.
43
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Female
Spring 2011
Fall 2010
Spring 2010*
Fall 2009*
Spring 2009
Fall 2008
Spring 2008
Fall 2007
Spring 2007
Fall 2006
Spring 2006
Fall 2005
Spring 2005
Fall 2004
Spring 2004
Fall 2003
Spring 2003
Fall 2002
Spring 2002
Fall 2001
Spring 2001
Fall 2000
0.0%
Male
Figure 8A: Proportional distribution of students by Gender; Fall 2000 through Spring 2011
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Female
Male
Figure 8B: Proportional distribution of First-time students by Gender, Fall 2000 through
Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files
44
Student Enrollment: Ethnicity
The mix of student-reported ethnicity at Mendocino College, over the past ten years, has
closely mirrored the changing proportional distribution of ethnicity within Mendocino and Lake
Counties. Figure 9 illustrates the proportional distribution of enrolled students in Fall 2000 and
in Spring 2011.
In several respects, the projected trend in ethnic distribution of students mirrors projected
changes in the population of Mendocino (and to a lesser extent) Lake County. The proportion of
White students is projected slowly decline. From Fall 2000 to Spring 2011, the proportion of
White students declined from 80.8% to 56.6.
This change is offset by two increasing trends. First, the proportion of Hispanic students has
increased from 10.3% in Fall 2000 to 23.9% in Spring 2011. This trend is projected to continue.
The second trend is an increase in the proportion of students who decline to state or fail to
report an ethnic identity. In Fall 2000, this group accounted for 1.2% of enrolled students. By
Spring 2010, the proportion had grown to 9.0%.
Among First-time students, the change is much more pronounced, as shown in Figure 10. In
Fall 2000, White students accounted for 73.7% of all First-time enrolled students. In Spring
2011, that percentage had declined to 47.1%. The demographic shift which took place over the
ten years has led to an increasing proportion of Hispanic students. 15.3% of enrolled First-time
students self-identified as Hispanic in Fall 2000. By Spring 2011, that percentage had increased
to 35.1%.
45
Fall 2000
1.11%
0.00% 4.33%
0.42%
1.78%
1.27%
10.34%
American Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
Two or more Races
Unknown/No Response
80.76%
Spring 2011
2%
9%
4%
2%
1%
1%
American Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian
24%
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
Two or more Races
57%
Unknown/No Response
Figure 9: Distribution of all enrolled students by Ethnicity, Fall 2000 and Spring 2011. Source:
CCCCO referential data files.
46
Fall 2000
1.74%
0.67%
0.00%
5.63%
1.07%
1.88%
American Indian/Alaskan Native
15.28%
Asian
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
Two or more Races
73.73%
2.20%
1.22%
Unknown/No Response
9.27%
1.95%
Spring 2011
1.46%
1.71%
35.12%
American Indian/Alaskan Native
Asian
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
47.07%
Two or more Races
Unknown/No Response
Figure 10: Distribution of all enrolled First-time students by Ethnicity, Fall 2000 and Spring 2011.
Source: CCCCO referential data files.
Over the past decade, both the number of Hispanic students and the proportion of the student
population they represent have been increasing, as shown in Figure 11.
47
1400
30.0%
25.0%
1000
N of Students
20.0%
800
15.0%
495
600
10.0%
400
5.0%
200
% Of Total
Spring 2011
Fall 2010
Spring 2010
Fall 2009
Spring 2009
Fall 2008
Spring 2008
Fall 2007
Spring 2007
Fall 2006
Spring 2006
Fall 2005
Spring 2005
Fall 2004
Spring 2004
Fall 2003
Fall 2002
Spring 2003
Spring 2002
Fall 2001
Spring 2001
0.0%
Fall 2000
0
Percent of Total Student Population
1162
1200
N of Students
Figure 11: Number of Hispanic students and proportion of total students they represent. Fall
2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.
In Fall 2000, there were 495 Hispanic students enrolled in Mendocino College, representing
10.3% of the student population. By Spring 2011, the number of students had nearly tripled, to
1162, which represented 23.9% of the total student population. Looking at Figure 11, one can
see that since Fall 2008, both the number of enrolled Hispanic students and the proportion of
total students they represent has accelerated. Since Fall 2008, the number of Hispanic students
has grown, on average by about 70 students each semester. Fall 2010 was the only semester that
did not show growth in the number of Hispanic students from the previous semester.
Much like the general population within the District, Hispanic students are generally younger
than their non-Hispanic counterparts, as shown in Figure 12. In Fall 2010 the largest single group
of non-Hispanic students, 15.2%, were in the 50-64 Age category. Over 40% of the nonHispanic population was 35 or older. The largest group of Hispanic students, 22.4%, was in the
18-19 age group. Overall, almost 50% of Hispanic students were 21 years of age or less.
48
25.0%
22.4%
20.0%
16.9%
15.2%
14.9%
15.0%
11.8%
10.9%
10.0%
9.7%
11.8%
11.1%
9.9% 10.3%
7.8%
7.2%
9.3%
8.8%
6.5%
5.9%
4.7%
5.0%
4.4%
0.6%
0.0%
Under 18 18 - 19
20 - 21
22 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 49
50 -64
65 +
IPEDs Age Categories
Hispanic Student
Non-Hispanic Student
Figure 12: Age distribution of Fall 2010 enrolled students; Hispanic and non-Hispanic students
by IPEDs age categories. Source: CCCCO Referential data files.
The experience of recruiting new Hispanic students has not shown the same type of growth as
illustrated in Figure 13.
49
300
45.0%
40.0%
250
N of Students
200
30.0%
25.0%
150
20.0%
100
15.0%
Proportion of Total FTF
35.0%
10.0%
50
5.0%
% of Total
Spring 2011
Fall 2010
Spring 2010
Fall 2009
Spring 2009
Fall 2008
Spring 2008
Fall 2007
Spring 2007
Fall 2006
Spring 2006
Fall 2005
Spring 2005
Fall 2004
Spring 2004
Fall 2003
Spring 2003
Fall 2002
Spring 2002
Fall 2001
Spring 2001
0.0%
Fall 2000
0
N of students
Figure 13: Number of Hispanic First-time Freshmen and proportion of total First-time Freshmen
they represent. Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.
The number of Hispanic First-time freshmen varies considerably from semester to semester over
the past decade. Part of this is attributable to the natural variation that occurs between Fall
semester, when more recent high school grads tend to enroll for the first time and Spring
semester, which tends to have fewer first-time freshmen overall as well as more older students.
50
Student Enrollment: Age
Over the past ten years, the student body at Mendocino College has become slightly younger,
as shown in Figure 14.
50
45
40
34.98
34.1
34.39
34.85
34.09
27.57
26.44
26.98
26.39
35
34.05
34.37
33.75
33.58
33.2
31.38
30
25 29.07
20
33.05
33.31
32.81
31.49
27.26
26.85
26.24
25.39
25.25
24.69
29.6
32.11
32.52 31.04
31.48 31.1
30.82
15
10
5
0
All Students
First-Time
Figure 14: Average age by semester for all enrolled students and for First-time enrolled
students. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.
In Fall 2000, the average age of all enrolled students was 34.98 years of age. By Spring 2011,
that average age had steadily declined to 31.38 years of age. The more interesting analysis is
the average age of First-time students. For all semester, the average age of First-time students
is less than the average age for all enrolled students. In Fall semesters, the average age of Firsttime students is considerably less than the average age of all students and has not experienced
as much change as the overall average. In Fall 2000, the average age of First-time students was
29.07 years and in Fall 2010, the average age was 27.26 years. In Spring semester, the average
age increases for First-time students to the extent that it is about one year less than the overall
average. This reflects the fact that Fall semester experiences the largest wave of recent high
school graduates in the younger age groups. This is evident in Figure 15, which illustrates the
distribution of First-time students by age for each semester.
51
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
65 +
70.0%
50 -64
60.0%
40 - 49
50.0%
35 - 39
40.0%
30 - 34
30.0%
25 - 29
20.0%
22 - 24
20 - 21
10.0%
18 - 19
Spring 2011
Fall 2010
Spring 2010
Fall 2009
Spring 2009
Fall 2008
Spring 2008
Fall 2007
Spring 2007
Fall 2006
Spring 2006
Fall 2005
Spring 2005
Fall 2004
Spring 2004
Fall 2003
Spring 2003
Fall 2002
Spring 2002
Fall 2001
Spring 2001
Fall 2000
0.0%
Under 18
Figure 15. Age distribution of First-time student by semester, Fall 2000 through Spring 2011.
Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.
As Figure 15 illustrates, in Fall semesters, the 18-19 year old students, predominantly recent
high school graduates, comprise about 45.8% of all First-time students.. In Spring semesters,
that average declines to 19.7% of First-time students; although, the actual percentage has been
increasing slightly the last few Spring semesters. In Spring semesters, First-time students are
dominated by adult students, mainly between the ages of 25-29 and 30 -34.
One of the fundamental enrollment trends focuses upon students ages 17-26 who are residents
of Mendocino County. These students have the highest FTES-to-headcount ratio and generate
well over 50% of the FTES for the College, with only about 28.2% of the enrollment of credit
students. Over the past ten years, they have generated an increasing share of credit student
enrollments and are projected to increase in coming years, as shown in Figure 16.
52
0.450
0.400
0.328
0.350
0.277
0.300
0.250
0.291
0.289
0.337
0.352
0.367
0.382
0.397 0.405
0.302
0.240
Projected
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.110
0.115
0.107
0.099
0.104
0.110
0.118
0.127
0.137
0.148
0.155 0.157
0.000
Portion of Cohort Attending MC
Portion of MC Enrollment Attributed to Cohort
Figure 16: Projection of enrollment trends for 17-26 year olds in Mendocino County. Source:
California Department of Finance and CCCCO referential data files
What Figure 16 also illustrates is that while the portion of MC Enrollment attributed to this
cohort is projected to increase from .328 to .405, the actual portion of the 17-26 year old
cohort which is projected to attend Mendocino College will have relatively flat growth, from
.110 to ,157. In Fact, from 2000 to 2010, there was not net change in the proportion of the 1726 year old cohort of Mendocino County residents which attended Mendocino College.
The consequence, as shown in Figure 17, is a projection of declining enrollments through Fall
2021. This projection is based upon current trends in enrollment coupled with projected
demographic trends by the California Department of Finance. This illustrates a projection that
overall enrollments will experience a slight decline from Fall 20113 through Fall 2021. At the
same time, the proportion of our enrollments attributed to the 17-26 year olds from
Mendocino County represents a greater portion of our student population.
3
This projection illustrates the limits of statistical analysis to project trends. In Fall 2011, enrollment dropped
sharply from Fall 2010 because of budget concerns which resulted in about 10% fewer course-sections being
offered.
53
6000
0.450
5356
5000
4786
4904 4961
4750
4641 4714 4742
4947
5076
Projected
4710 4771 4754 4737 4721 4704 4687 4670 4654 4637 4620
4000
0.400
4603
0.350
0.300
0.250
3000
0.200
2000
0.150
0.100
1000
0.050
0
0.000
MC Total Enrollment
Portion of MC Enrollment Attributed to Cohort
Figure 17: Actual and projected enrollment of students, Mendocino College, Fall 2000 to Fall
2015. Source: CCCCO referential data files.
54
Student Residency
Over the period from Fall 2000 through Spring 2011, the distribution of students who are indistrict residents of Mendocino County and Lake County have been relatively stable, as shown in
Figure 18.
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Lake
Mendocino
Figure 18: Distribution of students who are in-district residents of Mendocino County and Lake
County. Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files
In Fall 2000, 75.8% of in-district students were residents of Mendocino County and 24.2% were
residents of Lake County. In Spring 2011, the distribution is virtually unchanged, with 75% of
in-district students residing in Mendocino County and 25% residing in Lake County. It is likely
that there will be some change in this distribution in the future as a consequence of:


Expansion of the Lake Center scheduled to begin in 2011 and to be completed in Spring
2013
Continued expansion and marketing on on-line education as an option to Lake County
residents.
Where Students Take Courses
Along with the main campus in Ukiah, Mendocino College has “centers” in Willits (about 30
minutes to the north of Ukiah) and in Lakeport (44 minutes drive east of Ukiah) in Lake County.
Supplementing these three main locations, Mendocino College offers courses via distance
education and at various times, four other locations around Mendocino and Lake Counties.
55
Given the relative proximity of one physical location to another, it is surprising that most
students tend to take courses at one location, only, as shown in Table 11.
Ukiah Campus
Willits Center
Lake Center
Enrolled Students
3419
Enrolled Students
476
Enrolled Students
939
Ukiah only
2565 75.0% Willits Only
292 61.3% Lake Only
609
Ukiah and Lake
157
4.6% Willits and Ukiah
104 21.8% Lake and Ukiah
157
Ukiah and Willits
104
3.0% Willits and On-line
37
7.8% Lake and On-line
122
Ukiah and On-line
505 14.8% Willits and Other
43
9.0%
Ukiah and Other
88
2.6%
Table 11: Where students enroll in courses, Spring 2011. Source: Datatel Datamart
64.9%
16.7%
13.0%
Of the 3,419 unduplicated students enrolled on the Ukiah campus, 75% of them took all their
courses at Ukiah. The next largest percentage, 14.8% enrolled in an On-line course.
Among students enrolled at Willits (476) and Lake (939) in Spring 2011, there is much the same
pattern. At Willits, 61.3% of students enrolled in Willits classes only and at Lake, 64.9% of
students enrolled in Lake Center classes only. Unlike Ukiah, however, the On-line option is not
as popular as taking courses at Ukiah. 21.8% of Willits Center students were enrolled at Willits
and Ukiah and 16.7% of Lake Center students were enrolled at Lake and Ukiah. Only 7.8% of
Willits Center students were also enrolled in an On-line course and 13% of Lake Center students
were also enrolled in an On-line course.
Methods of Delivery
While traditional methods of course content delivery (Lecture, Lecture/Lab and Lab) will
continue to dominate course delivery at Mendocino College, there is a growing percentage of
enrollments in courses delivered through distance education, as shown in Figure 19. In Fall
2000, the overwhelming amount of enrollment, 93.2%, occurred in Lecture courses and
Laboratory courses. Only 4.5% of enrollment was in Distance Education courses. By Fall 2008,
and the widespread adoption of residential broadband and other internet services, Distance
Education courses accounted for 9.9% of enrollments and Lecture and Laboratory courses for
89.7% of enrollments. If these trends continue, by Spring 2012, Lecture and Laboratory courses
will account for 88.0% of enrollments and Distance Education courses for 12.0% of enrollment.4
4
The proportion of enrollment generated by “Other” forms of instruction, including Work Experience appears to
disappear because the proportion is less than the amount of the standard error (the lower and upper bounds of
the projection estimate) of the projections for Lecture/Lab and Distance Education.
56
Lecture/Lab
Spr 2012
Fall 2011
Spr 2011
Fall 2010
Spr 2010
Fall 2009
Spr 2009
Fall 2008
Spr 2008
Fall 2007
Spr 2007
Fall 2006
Spr 2006
Fall 2005
Spr 2005
Fall 2004
Spr 2004
Fall 2003
Spr 2003
Fall 2002
Spr 2002
Fall 2001
Spr 2001
Fall 2000
100.0%
95.0%
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
Distance Ed
Figure 19: Actual and projected proportional distribution of enrollments based upon
method of delivery. Source: Mendocino College Student Information System
Student enrollment and mission: Transfer, Basic Skills and CTE
Over the past several years, the Office of the Chancellor of the California Community Colleges
has consistently focused upon the tripartite mission of the community college:



Transfer and General Education
Basic Skills
Career & Technical Education (CTE)
Over the past four Fall semesters, between 87% and 90% of all section offerings have been in
courses that fall within these three areas. Each year, an additional 5.5% to 6.0% are sections of
learning labs which principally act as a supplement to English and Mathematics courses. The
remaining courses fall into the categories of non-transferrable Physical Education courses and
courses numbered less than 100 and, therefore, “recreational” courses. In Figure 20, the
distribution of course-sections in Fall 2008 and Fall 2011 are compared to illustrate how the
“mix” has changed over the period.
57
Fall 2008
1%
5%
6%
Basic Skills
10%
CTE
Transfer
34%
44%
Phys Ed (NonTransferrable)
Learning Labs
Recreational
Fall 2011
4%
6%
1%
Basic Skills
14%
CTE
Transfer
38%
38%
Phys Ed (NonTransferrable)
Learning Labs
Recreational
Figure 20: Distribution of course-sections by mission-defined area, Fall 2008 and Fall 2011.
Source: CCCCO Referential data files and Datatel Datamart.
Over the three year period, there has been a slightly greater emphasis on Basic Skills courses. In
Fall 2008, sections of Basic Skills courses (Math, English, ESL) comprised 10% of all section
offerings. In Fall 2011, that had grown to 14% of all course offerings. Similarly, course
offerings in CTE have from 34% of section offerings in Fall 2008 to 38% in Fall 2011. This
growth, however, has been at the expense of offerings in Transfer and General Education. The
58
proportion of courses offered in that mission-area has declined from 44% of all section offerings
in Fall 2008 to 38% of all course offerings in Fall 2011.
Student Enrollment: Student Success
From Fall 2005 through Fall 2010, student success5 has generally increased at Mendocino
College. As shown in Figure 21. In the twelve semester period, student success has seen a net
gain of 0.041, from 0.698 in Fall 2005 to 0.739 in Spring 2011. In fact, the last seven semesters
has seen a gain of 0.063 from the lowest rate of student success in 0.676 in Fall 2007. This
compares favorably to statewide student success rates. In Fall 2005, the statewide student
success rate was 0.6677, slightly less than Mendocino College. In Spring 2011, statewide student
success rate had increased to 0.6789, an increase of only 0.0122.
0.750
0.739
0.740
0.730
0.720
0.710
0.700
0.690
0.698
0.680
0.670
0.676
0.660
0.650
0.640
Fall
2005
Spring
2006
Fall
2006
Spring
2007
Fall
2007
Spring
2008
Fall
2008
Spring
2009
Fall
2009
Spring
2010
Fall
2010
Spring
2011
Figure 21: Student success Fall 2005 through Spring 2011, all enrolled students. Source:
CCCCO Referential Data files.
However, student success is not equal among all students. There is a definite gap in the average
success rate of minority students and the average success rate of White students as shown in
Figure 22. Each semester, that gap varies between 0.0445 to as high as 0.1014. In each
semester, that difference between the average success rates was found to be statistically
5
Success is defined as completing a course with a grade of A, B, C or Pass which enables a student to progress to
the next course in sequence.
59
significant, using a t-test of means. That indicates that the gap is a real phenomenon and not
simply a coincidence.
60
1.00
0.12
0.90
Success Rate
0.70
0.08
0.60
0.50
0.06
0.40
0.04
0.30
0.20
Success Rate Gap
0.10
0.80
0.02
0.10
0.00
0.00
Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring
2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011
Underrepresented Minority
White
Success Rate Gap
Figure 22: Average success rates for Minority students, average success rates for White students
and success rate gap (line). Fall 2005 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data
Files.
The largest growing minority group among Mendocino College students consists of Hispanic
students. As shown in Table 12, the success rates for Hispanic students are generally lower than
those for non-Hispanic students and, among Hispanic students, the success rates for male
Hispanic students is generally less than female Hispanic students.
Semester
Fall 2005
Spring 2006
Fall 2006
Spring 2007
Fall 2007
Spring 2008
Fall 2008
Spring 2009
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Female
Hispanic
Students
0.7009
0.7063
0.6813
0.6947
0.6601
0.6741
0.6520
0.6479
0.6621
0.6552
Female NonHispanic Students
0.7224
0.7363
0.7181
0.7243
0.6927
0.7075
0.6910
0.7159
0.7156
0.7314
Male
Hispanic
Students
0.5943
0.6601
0.6289
0.6748
0.6195
0.6123
0.6410
0.6251
0.5927
0.5966
Male NonHispanic Students
0.6719
0.6990
0.7210
0.7145
0.6622
0.6974
0.6870
0.6839
0.7042
0.6769
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Fall 2010
0.6203
0.7105
0.6353
0.7173
Spring 2011
0.7182
0.7283
0.6533
0.6884
Table 11: Average success rates Hispanic v. Non-Hispanic and Male v. Female. Fall 2005 through
Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.
Over the past twelve semesters, Non-Hispanic Females (predominantly White) have enjoyed the
highest average success rate, averaging a success rate of 0.7167. They are followed by NonHispanic Males (again, predominantly White) with an average semester success rate of 0.6936.
Among Hispanic students, females are significantly higher than makes in terms of average
success rate. Over the twelve semesters, Hispanic females average a student success rate of
0.6727 while Hispanic males average the lowest of all groups with an average semester success
rate of 0.627. As late as Spring 2010, Hispanic males dipped below 0.600.
Facilities Expansion
As projected by the Measure W Bond, Mendocino College will experience major facilities
expansion over the next 4-7 years. While facilities should not drive curricular decisions, the
addition of major facilities – permanent facilities in Lake County and Willits, possible
construction of an Allied Health/Nursing facility on the Ukiah campus, construction of a new
Library/Learning Resource Center --- will require decisions be made on how best to utilize the
facilities as they come on line.
Developing a “Culture of Evidence”
Unlike other trends discussed, this trend is not as quantifiable and reflects more of a qualitative
change in the nature of “how we do business”. The term “culture of evidence” refers to the
development of policies and practices that are based upon information and not tradition,
personality or personal preference. According to Educause, the elements of a culture of
evidence include:






Acquiring the right information
Establishing the information’s validity
Understanding what is significant
Knowing what is actionable
Rendering it in a compelling and useful format
Getting it before the right decision-makers
At Mendocino College, indicators that a culture of evidence is developing include:



The development and measurement of institutional, program and course-level Student
Learning Outcomes (SLOs).
The evolving Program Review process, which is integrating performance, planning and
budget.
A growing use of information technology and information in decision-making
62

The acquisition and implementation of the Datatel Colleague integrated information
system
The acquisition and implementation of the Datatel Colleague system is both an indicator of the
growing culture of evidence at Mendocino College and also a spur to further growth. As the
system gets fully implemented, “evidence” in the form of integrated information will play a
greater role in decision-making and policy development.
Summary
The purpose of this chapter is to provide a sense of the setting in which Mendocino College
operates presently and will be operating in the future.
This chapter provides information regarding external and internal forces that affect Mendocino
College. External forces include socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and projections
for the region. Other forces, which will affect the College but cannot be projected, include
State and Federal budgets and policies, the policies of accreditation and the policies of other
public systems of higher education with which we interact.
Internally, student demographics and projected trends in student demographics will likely be a
force we will need to address. Other internal forces include decisions regarding curriculum,
course delivery and technology, facilities expansion and the development of a culture of
evidence.
63
Chapter 4: Program Responsiveness, Growth and Improvement
Introduction
Mendocino College is committed to sustaining and improving existing programs while
continuing to be flexible in meeting the needs of the community in which it is located. This
chapter begins with a description of current program and course offerings, with an eye towards
examining them in terms of sustenance and change. A discussion of growth follows, with two
models of projecting growth presented. Finally, the chapter ends with a discussion of the need
for continued growth in FTES.
Planning for Program Sustenance and Change
According to the Mendocino College Mission Statement,
Mendocino College provides education to our students and our communities
by offering academic programs, transfer preparation, career and technical
training, lifelong learning opportunities and student support programs that are
dedicated to the achievement of learning outcomes.
The program offerings listed in the Mission Statement, with the addition of Basic Skills and
English as a Second Language (ESL), can provide a useful framework for examining long-term
planning for the College.
Academic Programs
The College offers a breadth of academic programs. Currently (2008-2010 Catalog), Mendocino
College offers 40 Associate Degrees and 29 Certificates of Achievement. In Fall 2007, this
translated to about 450 unique course offerings in 54 programmatic departments.[1] This
includes departments (e.g. Chemistry) which do not offer a degree program but are an integral
part of other degree programs (e.g. Nursing).
While the breadth of Associate Degrees at the College can be viewed as a strength, most
students earning an Associate Degree major in either General Studies, Liberal Arts or one of
several Business degrees. For example, in 2006-2007, out of 317 degrees awarded, 81 were in
General Studies and 71 were in Liberal Arts. 60 degrees were awarded in one of three Business
areas: Administration, Management or Accounting. With the exception of Registered Nursing
and Psychology, which awarded twenty three and twenty degrees respectively, all other
programs awarded fewer than ten degrees. Many awarded none over the past several years.
The lack of student interest in certain certificates and degrees should be considered seriously
and may lead to discontinuance of some programs over the next several years.
64
Recently (Fall 2008), in order to comply with Title V, along with most California Community
Colleges, Mendocino College redesigned the General Studies and Liberal Arts degrees to include
“areas of emphasis.” In the past, students have been able to design their own academic
programs, but now will need to take at least 18 units from a listing of courses in a defined area
of emphasis, approved by the Curriculum Committee. This change, unless dealt with
proactively, has the potential to impact severely the number of degrees awarded, especially to
students transferring to a four-year college or university since they are mostly using the path of
the General Studies degrees. The College has already had several areas of emphasis approved
locally and by the Chancellor’s Office (Education, Natural Science, Social Science, Humanities,
Kinesiology and Health, Visual and Performing Arts). It is imperative that the viability of these
degrees is closely monitored and new areas are developed to serve students and their
academic needs. This includes close collaboration between Student Services and Instruction to
insure the development of coursework relevant for transfer to four year colleges/universities.
Through the Program Review process and Program Management Guidelines, the breadth of
course offerings, certificates of achievement and degrees will be continually evaluated. Recent
Accreditation reports have suggested that the College examine the number and breadth of
degree offerings. This examination, in terms of student needs, programmatic goals, statewide
trends and demands, and institutional directions will be directed by EAP in accordance with the
Program Management Guidelines. These guidelines insure that when programs are added or
eliminated, a review is conducted which takes as many academic, community, and institutional
factors into consideration as possible.
Transfer Preparation
Transfer preparation will likely continue to be an integral part of Mendocino College. It is a
central part of our mission and of the California Community College system. Transfer
preparation tends to be an area of interest for younger students (18 – 26) who tend to enroll
full-time rather than part-time. Current (2008-2009) Statewide budget issues may steer local
students eligible for four year colleges and universities to complete their lower division general
education major prerequisites at Mendocino College.
Fortunately, Mendocino College provides a solid offering of the freshman and sophomore
courses needed for transfer to a four year institution. As it currently does, the College will need
to continue being flexible and responsive to student needs in scheduling ample sections of the
courses while maintaining a fiscally responsible schedule.
In serving students who choose to transfer, the College must also be continually updating
curriculum and responding to the demands posed by articulation requirements of the four year
institutions. In addition, serving transfer students optimally means being responsive to new
articulation opportunities.
65
The Curriculum Committee provides important support for keeping the College’s transfer
preparation viable. The Committee’s calendar, processes, and forms for approving and
activating transfer level courses must reflect the demands of the Articulation process. In
addition, a system for updating courses on a regular cycle is critical to keep our courses
articulating. The Curriculum Committee is in the midst of this work updating its processes.
Changes will coincide with the new information systems and software being adopted by the
College. These processes will provide an infrastructure for planning and changes that occur in
campus-wide course offerings.
The needs associated with Transfer Preparation are less volatile than other areas –
requirements for lower division general education and major prerequisites are fairly stable.
However, State-wide processes and local demand do change. Also, other issues such as
availability of part-time instructors can impact planning and decision-making in this area,
making it difficult to offer multiple sections beyond the full-time faculty member load for the
department.
Basic Skills and English as a Second Language (ESL)
While offerings in Basic Skills and English as a Second Language (ESL) are not specifically
referenced in the College’s Mission Statement, these areas are described in the Mission
Statement for the California Community College system, and they are imperative to the
sustenance and development of all our other areas. Most of our students (80%) are not eligible
for transfer courses in either math or English or both upon enrolling at the College and may be
placed up to three levels below transfer level work for English (non-ESL) and up to five levels
below in Math.
With the Fall 2009 increase of level in English and Math of Associate Degree graduation
requirements, the longtime need for increased attention on Basic Skills and ESL has begun to be
addressed on the statewide as well as local levels with the Basic Skills Initiative. Locally, the
College has formed a Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community to focus on this work.
This “committee” has broad membership from full- and part-time faculty (including counselors),
instructional administrators, and the Institutional Researcher. It is through the leadership of
that group that planning, research and development will occur.
District demographic data indicate that Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group. This
includes adult immigrants, who will benefit from ESL, but also the children who immigrated
with those adults as young children or teens, who are sometimes referred to as “Generation
1.5.” This distinction has been especially useful for educators as they strive to provide the most
relevant curriculum and support for individuals caught in between generations. They do not
have the same needs as their parents – first generation immigrants— or children born of
immigrants in this country—second generation. Generation 1.5 students might not benefit from
a traditional ESL program because they have “come of age” speaking English and attending
66
school in English. However, they also may have different needs from those students enrolled in
“mainstream” English and other courses since their education in English occurred later in their
lives than in their peers’. The College will need to continue to research community
demographics with increased attention on Generation 1.5 and implement educational
programs which work to recruit, retain, and promote the success of these students while also
reaching out to the language learning community in general.
Basic Skills and ESL provide the foundation for the success of all other courses and
departments. Most students rely on at least some preparation in pre-collegiate work to move
on to degree-level courses. It is imperative that the College consider this area a critical area of
development, not only to serve the increasing language learning community described above,
but also to be vigilant in our efforts to strive for equity. Providing access to degree and transfer
programs for all students entails making a strong basic skills program. For example, forty
percent of Mendocino College students are served by EOPS. These low income and first
generation college students are most likely to place into Basic Skills courses and benefit from
curriculum and programs geared toward them.
Career and Technical Education
In addition to transfer, basic skills and ESL courses, the College continues to offer Career and
Technical Education (CTE) as part of its mission. CTE represents the arm of the college for
students seeking direct employment after obtaining a certificate or associate degree. There is a
considerable and growing need for such “middle” skilled personnel within the developing
service and information global economy.
Currently, the College offers a wide-range of CTE programs and courses to meet the varying
needs of employers/employees. Programs and courses in areas such as Agriculture, Business,
Business Office Technology, Accounting, Computer Science, Automotive Technology, Public
Safety, Culinary Arts, and Nursing have long been the mainstay of CTE at Mendocino College.
Instructors in these programs continually strive to update and improve their outcomes by
analyzing the Core Indicator Data provided by the Chancellor’s Office and by actively engaging
with community members through Advisory Committee meetings.
Development of effective career pathways depends on collaboration with the K-12 system,
agencies, and employers. The College has recently begun to strengthen these relationships
through participation in the Statewide Career Pathways project. Working together and with
industry input, secondary and post secondary faculty create a sequenced pathway of courses
for their disciplines, creating articulation agreements where course content overlaps. This
information is then uploaded into a database, which is easily accessed by counselors,
instructors, parents, and students. Joint pathways work, further development of articulation
agreements, enhances career counseling, and the development of related marketing materials
is anticipated to continue.
67
The College is a primary resource for the community in terms of postsecondary career and
technical training that produces a labor pool of qualified employees. As such, existing and
emerging labor market needs must be continually monitored, particularly in terms of areas of
high skill, high wage or high demand occupations. Resources allocated for new program
development must be carefully weighed against the strengths and needs of existing programs.
Recent local, regional, and national data indicates areas to strongly consider expanding fall
within Allied Health and Green Careers areas. As CTE offerings are expanded and new
programs are developed, it is critical that the College also continuously assess its own CTE
program effectiveness in terms of meeting student and employer expectations.
Lifelong Learning
Mendocino College enjoys a strong constituency of students engaged in Lifelong Learning. It is
suggested in Chapter 3 that about 20% of students at Mendocino College are Lifelong Learners.
They are the most educated of our students (over half report a prior AA or BA/BS degree); they
are older; and they tend to be part-time students.
Demographically, it is likely that the pool of Lifelong Learners, especially in Mendocino County,
will expand through 2018, as the projections show increasing numbers of people moving into
the 55 and above age groups.
Our current strength with this group is in the creative and performing arts. As a group, Lifelong
Learners have some unique characteristics:
 Education is a “lifestyle choice” rather than training or retraining. It can be viewed as an
entertainment expense as much as an educational expense. Convenience, variety of
offerings, ongoing access (i.e., repeatability) and cost may be important criteria for
members of this group in terms of personal budgeting of finances.
 The interests of this group may change over time and reflect changes and trends in
society and culture as a whole.
 As this group ages, their educational needs are likely to change.
As this demographic group expands, the College will need to focus resources upon the planning,
scheduling and marketing of credit and non-credit courses for this group. Since this portion of
the population is likely to attend college classes for multiple years (well beyond the 2-3 year
pattern for the students whose goal is transfer), the College should also plan to provide new
learning opportunities to assure ongoing access to popular topics beyond the current
repeatability limits of existing curriculum. Other potential areas of growth might be non-credit,
short-term leisure and lifestyle courses geared to the financial and lifestyle needs of this group
(e.g. estate planning, financial planning). Given recent state budget developments, many of
these offerings may be converted to community extension workshops.
68
Student Support Programs
Student Support programs provide the principal extracurricular connection between the
student and the College. The particular focus of these programs is student persistence. The
research of Vincent Tinto and numerous other researchers over the past 40 years has shown
the importance of co-curricular and extracurricular programs and services for engaging
students and decreasing attrition.
As Shown in Table 1, Fall-to-Spring persistence is particularly low for First-time students and
First-time Transfer students.
First-Time
First-Time
Returning
Continuing
Semester
Student Transfer Student
Student
Student
Fall 2000
51.2%
40.3%
41.1%
71.2%
Fall 2001
57.4%
37.6%
42.4%
71.8%
Fall 2002
58.8%
39.2%
45.6%
73.6%
Fall 2003
53.4%
43.8%
45.3%
70.9%
Fall 2004
58.5%
45.4%
42.8%
71.2%
Fall 2005
58.1%
46.1%
42.1%
71.5%
Fall 2006
58.3%
36.0%
39.8%
74.7%
Table 1: Fall to Spring persistence by Fall enrollment status. Fall 2000 through Fall
2006
A very direct contribution that Student Support programs and student services can make is
increasing the Fall-to-Spring persistence of Mendocino College students. Over the past three
years, the average Fall-to-Spring persistence of First-time Students has been approximately
58%. Conversely, Continuing students have averaged 70% persistence or higher. First-time
students are particularly important because many of them are Full-time students in the 18-26
age group. With an attrition rate of 40%, that means that a large proportions of new
enrollments each Spring semester are refilling empty seats rather than filling new seats in
classes. Research on Mendocino College students estimates that each percentage point in Fallto-Spring persistence among First-time students is the equivalent of between 1.7 and 2.1
additional FTES in the spring (average of 1.951 over 7 years).
Since we know that most of our students enroll in Basic Skills courses during their first semester
at the College, some of the work connected to persistence will be in that area. For example, the
Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community referenced earlier are working on
developing Learning Communities, new Guidance courses, and new Academic Excellence
workshops. In addition, tutoring and other Learning Center activities will need to be examined
and potentially enhanced to increase persistence. Also, support activities which include
collaboration between counseling and teaching faculty are and will be valuable in this area.
As in all areas of planning, it is important to take the specific needs and characteristics of
diverse students into consideration in the development of support programs. An examination
69
of which students are and are not persisting will be important in deciding how to support them
in staying.
Characteristics of Growth
The discussion above on persistence is part of a larger conversation on Growth. Growth at
Mendocino College can occur in many ways. It can be due to an increase in the overall number
of student attending, it may be due to the addition of sections of existing courses or it may be
due to the addition of new sections of new courses. A discussion of growth also should take
into account factors from our external environment, including population, economy and jobs
provide both limits and opportunities for growth.
For example, the size of the population within the District is fairly stable and is characterized by
low projected growth rates. Assuming these trends continue, it would be fairly unrealistic to
set a target for growth which would not be sustainable based upon population with these
characteristics. Over the period 2002 – 2006, the unduplicated annual headcount of
Mendocino College students represented about 5% of the population of Mendocino and Lake
Counties, combined. Fall enrollment over the same period steadily represented 4% of the
combined population of both counties 18 years of age and older. It would be unrealistic, for
example, to expect that Mendocino College would be able to consistently increase student
enrollment by a double digit percentage over the next 5 – 10 years. On the opportunity side,
increasing tuition and fees at CSU and UC campuses make Mendocino College a more
affordable alternative.
In general terms, growth is characterized by the following:
Achievable
Achievable growth is growth that can reasonably be met given current resources. It is
unlikely that increased resources will be provided by the State in order to foster
growth; rather, resources flow from growth using existing resources.
Sustainable
Growth must be at a level which can be sustained over an extended period of time.
Sustainable growth provides a solid footing for further planning. One-time growth can
be achieved through concerted, highly focused efforts. However, sustaining that level
of growth for an extended period overtaxes people and resources. Ultimately, that
growth surge is lost.
70
Non-linear
Growth in FTES is not a straight line process, even though a straight line projection (e.g.
x% per year) is often used as a heuristic device for planning purposes. Instead, growth
in enrollments and FTES will fluctuate from year to year as student interest in programs
changes.
Projecting growth
In Figure 1, student enrollments for Fall semester are projected out to the 2017-18 academic
year using three different models. Each model is an alternative scenario based upon prior
experience. Statistical models are based upon a set of assumptions that reflect a projection of
past behavior into the future. They suggest outcomes of what is likely to happen if a certain set
of assumptions remain true.
The first model, the “forecast model” based upon the following set of assumptions:

Our enrolled student population will represent a constant 5% of the adult population of
Mendocino and Lake Counties, combined.
 The population projections from the California Department of Finance are sound and
likely to hold true for the period through 2018. In other words, there will not be a
significant amount of immigration into or emigration from the region which is not
accounted for by their model.
 The population growth for the two counties is distributed rather uniformly in each
county and not clustered in areas which fall outside district boundaries in the two
counties.
This model is developed using a forecast (regression) model. It is based upon the relationship
of our enrolled student population (number of students enrolled in one or more courses) to the
populations of Mendocino and Lake Counties. It assumes there is no change from past
conditions.
The second model, the “Average” model, projects enrollment growth for Fall semesters through
2018 using our average growth rate. This rate was calculated by averaging the historical change
(growth or decline) in enrollments from one Fall semester to another over the period Fall 2000
through Fall 2007. Projected years are incremented annually with this constant. The
assumption is that, over time, we can maintain some level of growth which will be normally
distributed.
The third model, “1.5% growth” uses a constant multiplier of 1.5% growth from one Fall
semester to the next Fall semester. This is a more aggressive model and presumes that
Mendocino College can, over time, maintain a growth rate in enrollment equal to 1.5% of the
previous Fall enrollment.
71
Figure 1: Fall enrollment, actual and projected, Fall 2000 – Fall 2018 using three different
models.
From the projection of our enrolled student population, the models then estimate the number
of Full Time Equivalent Students (FTES) generated by that enrollment. As shown in Figure 2, our
FTES/Enrolled student ratio for Fall and Spring semesters moves within a fairly narrow band.
For Fall semesters, the average FTES/Student ranges from 0.251 in Fall 2001 to a high of 0.286
in Fall 2005. Given the relative stability of the range, a forecast model was used to project the
FTES/Student rate for the period from Fall 2008 to Fall 2018. While not included in Table 1, the
model projected a slow but steady growth in this proportion, from 0.281 in Fall 2007 to 0.3327
in Fall 2018.
72
Figure 2: Average FTES per Enrolled Student, Fall and Spring semesters.
Based upon the projected FTES/enrolled student ratio, FTES for Fall semester can be projected
for each of the three models shown in Figure 1. The estimated growth in FTES for Fall semester
for each of the three models is illustrated in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Projected Fall semester FTES through Fall 2018 for each enrollment model.
73




The three FTES projections vary from 1666.15 for the “Average” model to 1910.84 for
the “1.5% growth” model. This is a considerable difference of about 350 FTES. The
“Forecast” model is roughly in the middle of the range with a projection of 1814 FTES in
Fall 2018. Each of these models is based upon the assumption that growth in enrolled
student numbers will directly yield a particular FTES. However, based upon enrollment
patterns, the actual number of FTES is sensitive to:
Age of the student: younger students tend to enroll in more classes and, therefore,
yield more FTES per students than older students, the “lifelong learners;”
The mix of full-time and part-time students.
Goals of enrolled students: students who are degree-seeking or transfer-directed tend
to enroll in more courses (more full-time students) than students who are here to
improve current skills, explore opportunities, enhance basic skills or are lifelong
learners.
The programs offered by the College.
Methods for Increasing FTES
The generation of FTES constitutes the principal funding mechanism for the College. Each FTES
translates to approximately $4600 in General Fund revenues from the State of California. This
funding supports on-going operating expenses as well as resources for program expansion and
new program growth which reflects the needs of the community. (Categorical funding, which
may support program expansion or new program growth, may be more reflective of state
needs or trends.)
FTES can be increased in a number of ways, including the following:
(1) Increasing the number of students
The models projected in Figure 1 are based upon the fundamental premise that the
number of students served by Mendocino College can be increased over the next ten
years. On a year-to-year basis, the models project quite different growth rates,
anywhere from 4.2 students per Fall semester to a high of 77.7 students per Fall
semester. The actual growth in students will likely fall somewhere between these
parameters based upon programmatic decisions that the College may make.
(2) Increasing the average FTES per student
If it is not feasible to increase the number of students at a rate projected by the
forecast model, a second alternative would be to focus efforts on increasing the
average FTES per student. As shown in Figure 3, the average FTES per student (using
Fall 2006 as an example) varies considerably within each of the previously identified
clusters of students.
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Students who fall into the “Transfer” cluster have the highest average FTES per
student, 0.504. These are predominantly Full-time or nearly Full-time students. This
population is projected to decline, according to California Department of Finance
projections. The cluster with the lowest FTES per student average is the “Lifelong
Learners”, with an average of 0.127 FTES per student.
Summary
This chapter provides a general overview of programs and courses at the College as well as a
discussion of both the need to sustain and improve what is currently offered or discontinued as
well as to explore new offerings in response to community needs. This chapter reflects the
academic strengths of the College, projected changes in the economy and forecast
demographic trends. Transfer preparation will remain a mainstay of the College, but because
of shifting demographics, it will likely become more integrated with both Basic Skills and CTE
courses. Planning for new academic programs in CTE reflect defined community needs and the
potential for contributing to growth in enrollment and FTES. Lifelong learning may expand its
offerings and become more flexible in its delivery and programming.
[1] Based upon Fall 2007 enrollment, CCCCO referential data files. Note that courses in ART are broken out to
reflect the three distinct degrees offered. Similarly, Theatre courses are broken out to reflect the Theatre and
Theatre/Dance options. Finally, College Work Experience courses are grouped within a single programmatic
department.
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Chapter 5: Pedagogy, Course Delivery and Professional Development
Introduction
Mendocino College has continually recognized that one of our chief resources is our faculty.
Evaluations conducted over the past five to ten years consistently reveal that students and
community members are pleased with the quality of instruction and counseling available at
Mendocino College.
Building on our success in traditional classroom and laboratory settings, the College has been
growing its distance education program to offer many more sections of courses online. A
recently (2007) hired Distance Education Director has been key in leading that effort. Overall,
the College as a whole works diligently to teach students effectively through relevant pedagogy
and course delivery modes to reach our student population in the classroom and across the
vast geography of our District.
In contrast to the excellence achieved in our classrooms (real and virtual), recent evaluations,
including the Basic Skills Initiative Self-Study, have indicated that our College lacks a cohesive
professional development program for faculty. Also, while there is collaboration within
departments, there is little official collaboration or professional development opportunities
across departments and disciplines among faculty in sharing best teaching practices and
“packaging” courses for innovative delivery models, including the creation of learning
communities in which cohorts of students register for a group of linked courses. There are also
ongoing professional development needs for faculty who teach online or work in distance
education, particularly with the use of new technologies. Finally, CTE faculty who come to work
for us from industry need on-going professional development in terms of pedagogy as well as
maintaining currency in their fields.
As our student population and the world they live in continues to change, our faculty need to
be supported in providing relevant curriculum, effective pedagogy, and engaging in innovative
collaboration.
This chapter will describe current practices and developments in pedagogy, course delivery, and
professional development. In addition, it will explore how Mendocino College can build on its
success as a teaching institution to respond to current trends and needs in these areas.
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Pedagogy
Current Practices
Mendocino College lists as its first Strategic Goal to “become a learner-centered institution by
focusing on student success (Mission, Vision, Values, Goals document).” Currently, the College’s
faculty employs a variety of pedagogical practices to create learner-centered environments.
Classrooms include cooperative learning, project based learning, laboratory practice, hands-on
training (especially in CTE areas), in addition to the traditional lecture, which is still a valuable
way to expose students to course material, and is complementary to these other teaching
practices.
These current practices not only promote learner-centered classrooms but also develop
students as effective communicators and collaborators. Educators in general, and community
colleges in particular, are charged with not only imparting academic skills, but also preparing
students for the workplace. Public and Private sector workplaces have clearly stated over the
years that communication and collaboration are the most valuable employment skills.
The College has long-recognized the value of promoting and improving interpersonal student
communication in its support for relatively small class sizes (low student-to faculty ratio). This is
key to enabling learner centered practices to flourish.
In addition to employing effective, overarching methodologies for teaching, Mendocino
College, as a small college with relatively small class sizes, is able to deliver instruction which
keeps the individual student in mind. Teachers know their students, and as one of only a few
teachers in their discipline, are likely to see students in more than one of their classes.
Furthermore, our small community lends to the plausibility that faculty will have taught
multiple members of the same family. The close knit nature of our college community is an
integral yet difficult to define aspect of our pedagogy. It is clear that best teaching practices
include using knowledge of our students to help engage them in learning, and to help us
respond appropriately to their individual needs. A small college lends itself well to employing
this responsive pedagogy. However, as will be explored later in this chapter, there are ways our
College can continue to be more responsive.
Emerging and Future Trends
Clearly, Mendocino College should continue to encourage and support learner-centered
teaching practices at the College. There are some key ways these practices are being rethought
and ways we can continue to be more responsive to our students. Mendocino College can
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engage more deliberately in what we already do well – that is, to know our students,
individually and collectively, and respond to their learning needs effectively and empathetically
while maintaining academic standards.
Incorporating instruction which is responsive to different learning styles, including learning
disabilities, is critical to student success. In general, the College has been effective in employing
a variety of learning modes to respond to these needs. Also, there has been a fair amount of
collaboration between the Learning Center, Disability Services (DSPS), and faculty.
The current Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community is working to further develop
that collaboration. With the current emphasis on increasing the successful matriculation of
students from Basic Skills to College and Transfer-level classes, this support structure will need
to expand in new ways, including Supplemented Instruction (tutors assigned to specific
sections), academic workshops targeting specific skills, and Learning Communities with faculty
and counselor collaboration. Future college plans should include pedagogy which integrates
supportive learning activities with classroom instruction.
As the demographic shift described in earlier chapters has occurred in the District, faculty have
been engaged in exploring practices which best reach the English language learning population.
While this is a current concern among faculty, it will need to be explored with greater intensity
over the first part of the next decade, including pedagogy most effective for students described
earlier as Generation 1.5.
In addition, it has been discussed in earlier chapters that students in the District are poorer
than most of the State and 40% of students are enrolled in EOPS. These are demographic
features which impact students and their learning. Mendocino College faculty, in general, as
empathetic individuals, already effectively support and guide apprehensive students as they
embark on a college education, sometimes as the first in their family. However, much of this is
done instinctively, without explicit attention to classroom practices that best reach these
demographics.
Culturally responsive pedagogy must also reach the region’s Native American population.
Course content and pedagogy relevant to this population is not only important for the success
of Native Americans (recruitment and retention), but also to ensure an awareness in the
general college community of the Native experience. Native American advisory committees are
long standing at the College. Future plans should include more collaboration with faculty to
ensure integration of the Native American experience into curriculum and pedagogy.
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Employing pedagogy which is responsive to students’ individual and collective identities is a
complex and dynamic process. There are no “magic methods” which will reach all of our
students all of the time, and we should resist pedagogical approaches which make such
promises. Later in the Professional Development section of this chapter, potential approaches
for engaging faculty and staff in activities which promote responsive pedagogy will be explored.
Technological and Architectural Support
Often, the current discussion of technology in education is concerned primarily with online
instruction—delivering courses through the Internet. While online instruction is a key direction
for Mendocino College and will be discussed in the “Course Delivery” section of this chapter,
using technology in classroom instruction and as support for teaching and learning is an area
the College is committed to with current activities and future plans. Additionally, the passage of
the bond Measure W has allowed the College to design new facilities which support a learnercentered campus as well as reach students with the latest technology.
With the passage of Measure W, the campus has been able to upgrade classrooms to have
“smart classroom” technology, making the Internet and other resources available in each
classroom on the main campus. Future upgrades will occur at the Centers to continue this
process of bringing the latest technology to assist in providing the best support for student
learning. A video server has been purchased and it is awaiting better bandwidth in order to
become fully functional for the campus and centers.
A more recent technology, podcasting, is available on the campus but it is primarily used for
special events such as readings, sporting events, etc. The implementation of Datatel (the new
information system) will allow for faculty to interact with students electronically as rosters and
contacts will automatically be created through the enrollment process. These changes should
allow for the integration of technology into current instructional practices.
In support of classroom teaching, the College already provides access to many computer
applications for students in the current Learning Center and Library. The Library has already
embraced more eBook technology with 34,000 eBooks in the collection to support teachers and
students. Additionally, the Library subscribes to millions of electronic articles through its
research database subscriptions. It should be noted that these electronic collections now
surpass the physical collections in the libraries.
New directions in technology and learning spaces will be part of the future of Mendocino
College which will enhance person to person learning, communication, and effective interaction
among small groups of people. Plans are being finalized for a new Library/Learning Center that
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will focus on more spaces for students to study in pairs or small groups and well as provide
space for individual learners.
The Learning Center will include space for Math Tutoring and Math Labs, a Language Lab, MESA
Center and Tutorial Center. The new Library will include ten group study rooms so that small
groups of students may work together without interrupting individuals wanting quiet study.
Both spaces of this new facility will have plenty of computer access with the latest applications
to support student learning for different subject areas.
Clearly, the upgrades of technology which will occur over the next decade will support online
education in new ways; however, the design is also to emphasize the value of effective inperson communication and cooperative learning, enhanced but not replaced by computerbased instruction. The additions and improvements made to the College should be integrated
with the classroom teaching strategies and communications between teachers and students.
The trends for the future appear to include technologies such as making dot mobile interfaces
so that students who increasingly rely on cell phones and personal digital assistants (PDAs) have
the ability to connect with the College. These devices will send text messages, download video
clips, carry eBook software, and even handle streaming video. To further emphasize how this
mobile revolution is taking place, it was estimated by Reuters that 3.3 million people worldwide had a mobile device by the end of 2007 (Griffey). With the ability to carry as much as 160
gigabytes in their pockets, students will now be able to access information, store information,
and create information from a device that was not even available a decade ago.
A continuing challenge for Mendocino College will be to respond appropriately to changes in
technology in a way that helps students and teachers engage in effective teaching and learning.
An inherent conflict in embracing and integrating technology into everyday classroom practices
is that at the same time we improve access to learning for some students, other students’
access may be hindered. A student’s ability to use technology effectively is a Basic Skills issue
(user skills) as well as an economic issue (exposure and ownership of equipment). Concerns of
access will need to be considered throughout our adoption and integration of new technology.
Course Delivery
Currently, Mendocino College employs a variety of ways that course content is delivered to
students. Besides a traditional classroom or lab setting, students are able to take classes over
the Internet through class management software (Etudes), through video courses, and via
travel courses.
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While online courses as well as video and travel courses offer flexibility, often they will still
require some space for students to have access to campus facilities. Some students will need
access to computer workstations, others will need to have access to video materials, and even
travel courses often require meeting space for orientations or other travel planning.
As the College continues to reach out to its campus centers in Willits and Lakeport, it will need
to plan for how student support for these types of courses will be provided in future facilities at
both sites along with other off-site locations. The Learning Center and Library support these
various modes of teaching delivery, but in their future planning, they will need to incorporate
the latest in best practices to better serve student learning.
Online offerings of existing courses have been growing in number over the past several years
enhanced by the hiring of a Distance Education Coordinator in the 2007/08 academic year. This
has increased access for students to courses, especially in the outlying areas of the District.
A major advantage of online courses is the ability to establish learning communities across
geographic boundaries. Effective online courses harness the power of technology with
instructional design and adult learning needs. For some students, the learning environment of
an online course can pace learners through instructional content (Swan 2004) and the use of
hyperlinks provides the opportunity for learners to expand and connect knowledge.
Asynchronous communication via discussion boards allows all students the chance to speak up
and thoughtfully engage with both the material and other learners.
Recent research indicates that online discussion/learning may be more supportive of
experimentation, divergent thinking, exploration of multiple perspectives, complex
understanding, and reflection than face-to-face discussion (Swan 2004). Another component of
online learning communities is the opportunities available for collaborative learning activities
and projects. Using the social networking tools of Web 2.0, engaging and effective group
assignments will expand learning opportunities.
A major part of past distance learning delivery, video courses, has gradually decreased in use at
Mendocino College. There are many reasons for this, including increased cost of materials, the
switch from videotape to DVD as well as concerns regarding regular weekly contact between
instructor and student. As distance education expands, video courses may eventually be phased
out in favor of online or hybrid formats consisting of a mixture of “on-the-ground” and online
interactions.
Students at the Willits and Lake Centers will also be able to gain new access to courses not
offered at the Centers through a Distance Education classroom which will be part of the new
Library/Learning Center. This classroom will give the campus the ability to connect the Ukiah
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campus to the Centers, making classes that would not be available at the centers linked
through audio/video connectivity.
Distance Education will continue to be an important course delivery mode at Mendocino
College. As courses are modified to include distance education as a method of instruction, the
College will need to monitor the quality of instruction, success rates of students, and learning
outcomes to ensure our reputation for excellence in instruction is maintained in cyberspace
and beyond.
Learning Communities
While course offerings online are continuing to grow in number, Mendocino College will also
need to continue to explore new ways to package courses for students attending class oncampus, including the centers. One direction the College has been working on is to group
students into Learning Communities – a cohort of students taking two or more linked courses.
Research in community college education indicates that this is an effective strategy for
increasing student success and persistence, especially when augmented with other learning
support, such as tutoring and counseling/advising. The Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning
Community is working on beginning such a Learning Community in the fall of 2010 at the Basic
Skills level. However, the hope is that this will be a pilot project and will lead to other Learning
Communities across disciplines and across levels.
Learning Communities require collaboration and cooperation across many facets of the
campus, including multiple faculty, counselors, as well as admissions and records. This will be a
valuable direction for the future as it enhances the small school qualities we already have and
further connects students to each other, to faculty and to their counselors. Learning
Communities will continue to enhance the learner-centered focus of the College.
Interdisciplinary Offerings
Another recent trend at the college has been to “cross-list” courses. This is an innovative course
delivery method which allows courses to be accessed by students and taught by faculty in a
combination of disciplines. For example, we have courses cross listed in Psychology and Child
Development, Child Development and Health, and Sociology and History. This mode of delivery
not only allows for students to find the course listed in a variety of disciplines, but also
acknowledges the interdisciplinary nature of subject matter.
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Professional Development
Mendocino College offers a variety of ways for faculty, staff and administration to participate in
professional development. A primary way is through district-wide in-service activities at the
beginning of each semester. These activities are extended to part-time faculty and
opportunities are provided at both the Lake and Willits Centers and the Ukiah campus in the
evening. Additionally, full-time faculty perform forty-two hours of flex activity of professional
development each academic year that is approved by a subcommittee of the Academic Senate
and the deans.
Another way that faculty participate directly in professional development opportunities on the
Mendocino College campus is through work in such areas as the Basic Skills Initiative, CTE: Tech
Prep – Articulation workshops, and through faculty workshops sponsored/presented through
Academic Senate. Beginning in Spring 2007, a group of core faculty began working on
developing a plan for Basic Skills and spent three days between academic sessions to complete
a review of the Basic Skills Initiative Self Study. The results of this Self Study indicated that there
existed a lack of on campus professional development.
This led to further planning throughout the 2007/08 academic year and to the hiring of a Basic
Skills Coordinator and an ESL instructor to coordinate ESL activities. With these positions in
place, the College has hosted in-service activities called Teacher Institutes and hosted miniconferences with more planned in the upcoming years.
As the College considers providing professional development opportunities, it will need to keep
in mind the Education Master Plan and provide opportunities for faculty and staff to collaborate
and share best practices around the themes relevant to our plan, such as becoming a learner
centered institution, developing learning communities, and increasing knowledge of our
student population and ways to meet their needs. While it is important to continue to support
faculty in their individual pursuits, an on campus professional development program needs to
be developed as a cohesive effort in carrying out our Education Plan.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Coombs, Karen. “The Mobile iRevolution.” Netconnect Fall 2008: 28.
Griffey, Jason. “Stranger Than We Know.” Netconnect Fall 2008: 10.
Swan, Karen. 2004. “Relationships Between Interactions and Learning In Online Environments.”
The Sloan Consortium. (http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/books/interactions.pdf).
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Chapter 6 – A Shared Vision for Mendocino College
The Educational Master Plan (EMP) is a living document, providing a foundation for the
college’s overall planning process. The EMP is updated regularly to reflect changes in the
external and internal environment; the needs of the community and our students; and the
changing nature of higher education. Developed and applied as the basis for the Facilities
Master Plan and Technology Master Plan, the EMP is a key document in the College’s planning
efforts.
Relationship between Educational Master Plan, Facilities Master Plan, Technology Master Plan
and Strategic Plan.
The Mendocino-Lake Community College District spans portions of California’s Mendocino and
Lake Counties and serves a diverse and demographically changing population. The EMP
addresses the need for expanding the student population and other revenue sources at
Mendocino College over the next decade. Because of external forces, such as uneven or
shrinking state support, increased energy costs and other natural increases in costs, the College
will need to have a larger student population to maintain or expand programs and services.
Emphasis on the use of technology and improved pedagogy may help the College balance the
need for growth with its tradition of personalized instruction. As Mendocino College continues
to plan, the challenge is to maintain and build upon traditional strengths while meeting the
challenges of the future.
CHARACTERISTICS AND ASSUMPTIONS
For the purposes of planning the next decade of activity at Mendocino College, the EMP
assumes that the following characteristics and planning assumptions will continue to influence
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college programs, services and future planning. From 2010-18, it is assumed that Mendocino
College will:

Continue the College’s role as the primary local institution of public higher
education within the Mendocino-Lake Community College District meeting the
mission and operational requirements of the California Community College System as
supported by the State of California;

Maintain a small college setting where excellent faculty, relatively small classes and
personalized support services can allow individual students from small regional
communities to participate actively in the educational process and flourish in ways not
possible at a larger college;

Foster student-centered learning environments and maintain quality instruction
by supporting faculty in being innovative and passionate about teaching and learning;

Develop new avenues of student and institutional financial support in
cooperation with Financial Aid and the Mendocino College Foundation as well as the
pursuit of grant opportunities;

Complete plans and projects funded by the 2006 Measure W Bond;
In conjunction with the fundamental characteristics of the college listed above, research for the
Educational Master Plan suggests several key planning assumptions::

On average, our students have more financial need than those in many areas in the
rest of the state, and the college needs to invest in initiatives to assist them.

The college needs to preserve -- and expand when possible -- breadth of choice, even if
we choose to discontinue some classes and programs.

As the only local institution of higher education, we have an obligation to respond to
community demands for job training and upgrading of career skills.

Lake County demographics suggest an opportunity to increase the high school capture
rate in the eastern portion of the college district.

New alliances with secondary schools throughout the district will help increase
enrollments in both Transfer and Career and Technical programs.

Since approximately twenty percent of our FTES is generated by enrollments by
lifelong learners, the college needs to preserve lifelong learning opportunities
pending state funding parameters.
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
Improved and innovative programs should expand comprehensive opportunities to
support the retention and persistence of all students.
The EMP recognizes the inter-dependence of college programs and disciplines. Many degrees
and certificates, for example, require a comprehensive course of study in several disciplines;
virtually all require competence in basic skills; others rely on course content from one or more
academic or career and technical disciplines that can be applied to courses of study in others.
Supporting this segment of the plan, the Main Campus in Ukiah, Off-Campus Centers in Lake
and northern Mendocino Counties, Point Arena Field Station and other instructional locations
rented or leased by the college can be characterized by the clusters of learning activity taking
place in such facilities.
2009 Baseline: The Main Campus in Ukiah offers a home for comprehensive academic and
student support services. Off-campus centers in private leased facilities in Lakeport and Willits
provide access to college programs and services to meet local needs in the outlying areas of the
college district.
Current Ukiah facilities on the main campus include MacMillan Hall; Lowery Library; Vocational
Technical Building and Ceramics facilities; Center for the Visual and Performing Arts; Science
Building; Court Center complex, Physical Education buildings, fields, tennis courts; Agricultural
area; Grove barbeque area; Maintenance complex in a variety of support structures including
the historic Yokayo Ranch barn; delivery and parking facilities.
The current off-campus centers are housed in leased office buildings in the cities of Lakeport
and Willits. The Point Arena Field Station, on the Mendocino Coast near the city of Point Arena
outside the college district, consists of basic scientific lab facilities in a former Coast Guard
Loran Station and a magnificent coastal natural cliff and tidepool environment for scientific field
study. Additional classroom facilities are rented or leased in various district locations as needed
each semester.
Student-centered learning facilities projected to be developed at Mendocino
College from 2010-18:
MAIN CAMPUS, UKIAH:

2010: The existing agricultural and new solar field areas at the campus entrance along
Hensley Creek Road adjacent to the site of the new "east campus village" and existing
Grove offer facilities for teaching, learning, and social events emphasizing
sustainability, green technology, and other current community topics. These spaces
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offer an opportunity for more casual yet socially meaningful campus-life activities to
occur.

2010-2011: The new Ukiah campus "east campus village” classrooms, offices, parking
lot and accompanying exterior public spaces will provide a cohesive setting for
collaboration among career and technical education programs housed there. It will
initially provide locations for programs in transition from one facility to another (the
student union, cafeteria and bookstore) during the building phase of the Student
Services Building. The area will also support opportunities for emerging programs with
basic facilities while they are in their development phase.

2011: The new Maintenance Warehouse will provide a permanent home for all college
maintenance and facility management operations and free other spaces for new uses.

2012: The new Library and Learning Resource Center (LLRC) will offer comprehensive
student-centered learning resources and support services as well as home-away-fromhome study areas for students, especially those who may not have access to adequate
study environments elsewhere. Expanded library collections, Learning Resource Center
services and resources, a Disability Resource Center, new distance education facilities,
classrooms, meeting areas, and faculty offices will also support student learning in new
ways. The LLRC is the heart of the academic environment within the higher education
community, providing the necessary resources and support to foster student learning.

2015: New Student Center and Plaza “Heart of the Ukiah Campus” support student and
staff interaction and activities outside the classroom. Campus life requires that a
student feels that there is a place that enhances their sense of belonging. A new
student center, food service and bookstore facilities, and both indoor and outdoor
public meeting spaces associated with the new student center and plaza between the
student center and library will enhance campus life.

Dates to be determined: Other new concepts for new educational facilities or the
re-use of existing facilities in Ukiah include the potential for an event center in a
remodeled and restored Yokayo Ranch barn; Foundation office; reconfigured Grove for
campus use and public fundraising events.
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY

2009-12: Acquisition of real estate and architectural plan development for new center
in the City of Willits.

2014-15: A new college-owned Willits Center will offer first access to the California
Community College System in northern Mendocino County, providing communitybased education meeting ongoing and emerging needs in Mendocino’s inland north
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county region. The North County program is unique in that multiple communities in
Willits, Round Valley and Laytonville must be served through innovative and
responsive program development and management. Utilization of emerging
technologies to enhance learning in remote areas may allow educational programs to
be accessible to all district residents. Specific programs developed in northern
Mendocino will be responsive to community needs that emerge from demographic
analysis and active community input through outreach and academic program
planning, and new facility and site development on college property in
Willits.(Tentative areas of emphasis for further review in northern Mendocino include
basic skills; small business development; green technology; hospitality and tourism;
Native American community studies.)
LAKE COUNTY

2009-12: Acquisition of real estate and architectural plan development for new center
in the community of Lakeport.

2015-16: A new college-owned Lake Center will offer first access to the California
Community College System in western Lake County, providing community-based
education meeting ongoing and emerging needs. Specific programs developed in Lake
will be responsive to community needs that emerge from demographic analysis and
active community input through outreach and academic program planning, and new
facility and site development on college property in Lake County. (Tentative areas of
emphasis for further review in Lake include small business development; agriculture
including introductory studies in viticulture and enology, organic farming, ranching, and
agricultural marketing and tourism; public safety; environmental studies.)
POINT ARENA FIELD STATION
 2009-10: The facilities at the Point Arena Field Station (PAFS) will be refurbished
through Measure W Bond funds. PAFS continues to be a unique property in the
California Community College system and is a college gem. The site allows the College
the ability for unique offerings of courses and field trips for science students and should
be considered in future development plans.
Literacy Hub
With the completion of the new Library / Learning Center at the Ukiah campus in 2012, the
College anticipates it will become the primary literacy resource for both students and
community members. As planning documents for this project indicate, the primary purpose of
the new Mendocino College Library and Learning Resource Center (LLRC) is to create an
environment that promotes intellectual growth. The architecture is designed to express this
purpose and the space of the building is envisioned as one which will promote the expansion of
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knowledge and incubation of ideas and innovation. From an architectural standpoint, “the
physical presence of the building in its context is a beacon for learning and signals the progress
and commitment of Mendocino College.” (Schematic Design Document, TLCD Architecture,
May 2008)
It is envisioned that this easily accessible location of the LLRC will attract students and change
some of the “commuter campus” dynamics which the College currently experiences to a more
stable literacy hub. This literacy hub will include the LLRC as well as the Lowery Student Center
complex and the College Plaza, creating an environment in which students will remain on
campus after classes to continue their class work as well as to connect with students, faculty
and tutors in a variety of settings.
It is also envisioned that the accessible location of the LLRC will make it a resource for
community members as well. As a two-story, 47,998 square foot building, the LLRC will be one
of the largest buildings in the county. Additionally, with over 30,000 in holdings and special
collections, the LLRC will likely become a significant spot for research and exploration for both
students and non-students.
With ten group study rooms available for small group interaction, the Library will become a
place where collaborative learning, will be fostered on the campus. Students will gather to work
on projects, discuss ideas, and help each other learn, extending learning beyond the walls of
the classroom. Likewise, the Library will also serve as place for community events (such as
author readings and lectures) that will enhance student learning and enhance the communities
that we serve.
Beyond the walls of the LLRC, the Library’s electronic resources will assist students, faculty and
the community to have access to information on a 24/7 basis, providing the latest access to
over 37,000 eBooks, millions of full-text electronic articles from journals, magazines and
newspapers, and other resources to support students, faculty and staff on the main campus, at
the centers, and those learning through distance education.
The new Learning Resource Center (LRC) will serve as a hub for student learning outside the
class room. Students, through the use of the center, will be able to work individually or in small
groups to take ownership of their own learning. The LRC will house a large room with work
tables that are located next to very large white boards (with over 320 square feet of writing
space) that are incorporated into the walls of the center which will allow for active student
engagement in coursework. For instance, students will be able to problem in areas such as
solve sentence structure, paragraph structure, math, chemistry and physics. The organization of
the learning center will allow for student collaboration in small group break out rooms.
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Specifically the LRC will offer the following student support programs:
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Special Topic Workshops – These workshops will be for special topics in English writing,
specifically sentence structure, paragraph structure and essay structure. Students may
also attend workshops in citation methods.
Academic Excellence Workshops – These workshops will be specifically for problembased classes such as math and science. They allow students to develop a learning base
that will allow them to succeed in successive courses.
Student-led study groups
Group tutorials for computer programming – The new Learning Resource Center will
allow for many student to give input during a computer programming tutorial.
Group writing projects
Online course projects
Intercombios- These language exchanges between two people who are proficient in
different languages may take place both in the LRC as well as in the adjacent Language
Lab.
Additionally, the Library / Learning Resource Center will house expanded and updated facilities
for the Disability Resource Center. Areas will include a testing office as well as an upgraded
technology center. The DRC is adjacent to the LRC testing area to provide testing
accommodations for DRC students. The Resource Center also constitutes a classroom in which
DRC students receive group instruction on classroom and study strategies.
Financial Need
The current economic crisis has already resulted in large increases of applications for financial
aid. Mendocino College now has more students who need financial assistance and the overall
student population is more desperate for help than ever before. Over the next five years the
demand for aid will increase. Mendocino College must prepare to disseminate information
about the aid available and the process required to obtain the aid.
Community colleges are usually considered a low-cost college option, but the enrollment fees
are only part of the real cost. The increased cost of textbooks has put a college education
further out of reach for at-risk under-represented students. Students often struggle to cover
child care costs, transportation and living expenses. Financial aid can be a big help, but many
community college students have a harder time paying for college than their peers at four-year
schools. Community college students are in the best position to receive financial aid, yet they
still face economic challenges that can put their educational goals out of reach.
Many students are eligible for a Board of Governor’s (BOG) Fee Waiver, but many never apply.
An even larger percentage of students who appear to be eligible for a Pell grant, never
complete the process to receive grant aid.
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In 2007-08 Mendocino College awarded 2489 BOG Waivers. 840 of these were BOG-C which is
the result of a student completing a FAFSA and having $1 of need. The other 1649 BOG
Waivers were students who by definition should have met the federal guidelines for simpleneeds test or auto-zero EFC. Mendocino College awarded 859 Pell Grants in 2007-08. Even
allowing for students who fudged their income figures, defaulted on loans, or were only taking
a personal enrichment class, realistically another one-thousand students should have applied
for and received a Pell Grant.
In the Advisory Committee on Student Financial Aid Assistance’s September, 2008 report Apply
to Succeed: Ensuring Community College Students Benefit from Need-Based Financial Aid, they
surveyed community college students who appeared to be eligible for financial aid, but did not
apply. They obtained the following surprising results:
• [Students] thought they were not eligible for financial aid (39 percent).
• [Students] had sufficient funds to pay for college expenses (35 percent).
• [Students] found the financial aid application form too complex (6 percent).
There is considerable literature about the fact that students who receive assistance and are
able to reduce the number of hours they must work are more academically successful.
There are three areas Mendocino College must strive to improve if we hope to meet the
increased financial needs of our students:
1. Commit real dollars and real positions to its Maintenance of Effort match for the
State Financial Aid Administration funds. The match is currently met with too many indirect costs.
2. Increase the ability of financial aid and outreach offices to improve the message to
students and speed up the processing. Outreach should be done as early as middle
school so parents and students understand the availability of aid AND the connection
between taking A-G and academic success in college.
3. Develop college-wide buy-in that applying for aid and completing the financial aid
process is only one part of the formula for success. Students must take placement
tests, see a counselor to get help making program/certificate choices, follow their
education plan, attend classes and complete the classes. Students should not get
repeated waivers for sub-standard performance.
Career and Technical Education
Career and Technical Education programs have multiple goals for the future. The College will
become highly responsive to employer needs and will have established strong partnerships and
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tech prep / collaboration models with the two counties it serves. Career paths for all CTE
programs will be completely fleshed out and marketed. Technology will need to be current and
CTE faculty will also need to be current with their understanding of its use and application in
industry. Student learning outcomes are assessed in alignment with industry standards
whenever possible. The CTE faculty will be highly engaged with their advisory committees,
receiving constructive feedback that is used to improve programs. Students who graduate from
CTE programs at Mendocino College will be employable. Additionally, employers will be
satisfied with the job preparation that the College provides.
Information Technology and Mendocino College
In the future of Mendocino College, information technology will become more enmeshed in the
daily lives of faculty, staff and students. The full implementation of Datatel, including the
student portal will be a major force in this direction. With the portal, students will have greater
access to the services they require (admission and records, financial aid, etc.) as well as
asynchronous access to faculty through synchronous chat rooms, email (extension of
Mendocino College email accounts to students), blogs and other technologies.
Learning in general, even in traditional “on-ground” courses will incorporate many of the 24/7
features of distance learning. Student-faculty interaction will move beyond the confines of the
classroom and the office. This will expand Mendocino College’s educational opportunities to
more populations within the community, especially as broadband is extended into more rural
areas of the district.
For faculty members, the combination of focused professional development programs and
generational replacement of faculty will result in a more tech-savvy faculty willing to explore
new uses and adaptations of the world-wide web to better serve students. For current faculty,
professional development which focuses upon the uses of information technology, the socalled “Web 2.0” elements will enhance and expand the educational experience for “onground” students. New faculty, many of whom will have grown up enmeshed in Web 2.0
technologies, such as social networking, blogging, etc., will be likely to extend this familiarity to
the classroom.
One can foresee the use of both asynchronous technologies (chat rooms, social networking,
blogging, podcasting, webcasting), and synchronous technologies (live chat, video conferencing)
employed by faculty to make learning more active and alive for students. One small example of
the changes might be the use of webcasting courses to various campus and center sites using
synchronous technology, to make better use of faculty expertise and improve facility use
efficiency.
Distance learning will continue to expand and serve more students, in essence becoming a
“virtual campus” alongside the current Ukiah campus and Lake and Willits centers. It is likely
that the line between “traditional” students and “on-line” students will continue to blur as
students enroll in a greater mix of on-line and on-ground courses.
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With the growth of broadband and greater use of Web 2.0 technologies, even greater
opportunities will be explored through distance education. These opportunities range from the
delivery of targeted continuing education opportunities for adults, either as individuals or
contracted by their employer or professional organization, to offering specific programs of
study only through the on-line venue. By 2018, it is likely that Certificate programs, especially
in areas dealing with informational technology, will be offered only as on-line courses to free
valuable classroom space for other instructional activity.
Demographic Change and Responses
In 2018, Mendocino College will look somewhat different from the Mendocino College of 2008,
in terms of its students, faculty and staff. For students, the continued demographic shifts in the
population, especially in Mendocino County, will become more evident.
The proportion of Hispanic students, especially traditional college-age students, will continue to
grow. In Fall 2008, for example, Hispanic students comprised about 14.6% of enrolled
students. Among traditional college-age students, aged 17 – 26, that proportion was slightly
more than 20%. In 2018, one might expect that the proportions may grow to 25% and 30% of
enrolled students, respectively. If the UC and CSU systems continue to restrict enrollments, this
proportion may grow even larger.
At the same time, there will be a larger cohort of “life-long learners” at Mendocino College,
reflecting the impact of external trends. The population of Mendocino County and, to some
extent, Lake County is getting older. Higher proportions of the population in “adult” age groups
coupled with a concomitant decline in the number of high school graduates will mean that
Mendocino College will also be serving an older pool of potential students.
Moreover, these students will be placing different demands upon the College. Rather than
focusing upon leisure and life-style courses, the demand will continue to grow for job
retraining, in order to move into second and third careers as the economy continues to evolve.
Along with retraining, there will be a stronger demand for “retooling” courses, both credit and
noncredit, to keep currently employed people up to date in their professions, especially in the
public sector and in the health care fields. Some new areas of specialized training supporting
local or regional career and technical needs may also develop in future years.
The net effect is that while Mendocino College will continue to serve the entire community, the
mix of students representing the community and the needed course offerings will have changed
over the past decade.
Faculty will also reflect demographic change. As the faculty employed in 2008 ages and retires,
by 2018, it is likely that Mendocino College may have a significantly younger full-time faculty.
These younger faculty members will bring with them the experiences of growing up in a culture
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linked through the internet and Web 2.0 technologies such as social networking. Culturally,
these new faculty, instructors who are also likely to be more diverse culturally than their
predecessors at Mendocino, will expect that they and their students will connect using multiple
avenues outside the classroom.
A particular challenge in 2018 will be to locate and retain local part-time faculty, especially in
CTE curriculum. Because of the rural nature of the District, and the distance to major
population centers, the pool of available, highly-skilled individuals to fill part-time positions,
especially in specialized technical fields is unlikely to grow.
For management and administrative staff, the prior decade will have been one where the
growth of the technological infrastructure, spurred by the full implementation of Datatel, has
dramatically changed the nature of work and presented new challenges. Part of the challenge
will be dealing with the wealth and accessibility of data that has accompanied the
implementation of an integrated student and financial data system. In other words, part of the
change will be the need to decide which pieces of information truly are key performance
indicators that need to be monitored and examined and which pieces of data are chaff or
“noise.”
With more widespread technology, the other challenge will be the nature of “work” for
administrative staff and managers. The work life of many administrative staff will have shifted
from repetitive, non-people-oriented tasks (i.e. “shuffling paper”) to a greater focus upon
interpersonal contact, service and problem resolution. This means that there will be greater
attention paid to solving the problems of “outliers;” students and faculty who present issues or
problems which fall outside the handling boundaries of information technology.
Professional development will need to focus on the cultivation of people skills (e.g. dealing with
the difficult client) more than the cultivation of task skills (e.g. completion of purchase order
forms). This shift may entail retraining of current employees to fulfill tasks that are more
people-oriented and less task-oriented. In sum, an indirect result of information technology will
be to free staff to more directly serve the members of the College community.
Campus Settings
Sustainability and “green awareness” have been major themes over the past decade at
Mendocino College. Beginning with the installation of a solar array in 2009-10, Mendocino
College has worked toward reducing its carbon footprint. New buildings, including the
Library/Learning Center, have included features that help the building blend with the existing
oak-studded Ukiah campus and use energy more efficiently than some of the older buildings on
campus.
In response to continued climate change and an effort to reduce water consumption, much of
the Ukiah campus has been re-landscaped using drought-resistant, native plants. New buildings
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at the Willits and Lake Centers will include features that reduce energy and water consumption
and support faculty and staff to “practice what they preach about our college's green efforts” in
the classroom and elsewhere.
Conclusion
As the Educational Master Plan indicates, Mendocino College considers a variety of internal and
external factors when planning and is committed to flexibility when responding to the needs of
students and the community as well as to the changing nature of higher education. During the
drafting of the current version of the EMP, the State budget has fluctuated, funding for
categorical programs has been severely impacted and a cap has been placed on growth.
However, the College remains committed to the Planning Assumptions as stated in both this
chapter as well as Chapter 1.
Tough decisions regarding the direction of funding to support specific programs, as well as the
review of programs that the College may not longer be able to offer loom in the near future.
With this in mind, the guidance of the Educational Master Plan, in concert with the campus
Strategic Plan, the Facilities Master Plan and the Technology Master Plan and the work of
committees such as the Educational Action Plan Committee and the Planning and Budget
Committee, will continue to play a crucial role as a primary resource for college-wide
recommendations and decisions.