International Training Course on Tropical Cyclone
5 – 16 December 2011, WMO RTC Nanjing, China
Tropical Cyclone
Monitoring And Forecasting
In Malaysia
by:
Mohd Khairudin Shaari
Malaysian Meteorological Department
SCOPE
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Introduction: Malaysia
Malaysian Meteorological Department
General Climate of Malaysia
The Effect of Tropical Cyclone Towards
Malaysia Weather
• Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting
In Malaysia
• MMD Early Warning System
INTRODUCTION: MALAYSIA
LOCATION OF MALAYSIA
Region: Southeast Asia
Coordinates: 2°30'N 112°30'E
Area: 329,847 km²
Population: 27,730,000 people
MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL
DEPARTMENT
MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL
DEPARTMENT (MMD)
http://www.met.gov.my
MMD Main Services
Weather Forecast
Seasonal and Long-Range Weather Outlook
Weather Warning
Marine Meteorological Forecast
Aviation Meteorology
Meteorological Observations
Earthquake & Tsunami
Weather Modification
Environmental Studies
Climate
Agromet
Central Forecast Office Division
Central Forecast Office is responsible for weather monitoring
and issuing the sea condition, weather forecast and
warning to general public, mass media and private agencies
GENERAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIA
Severe Weather in Malaysia
Inter-Monsoon
(Apr-Mei & Sep-Okt)
Nort-East Monsoon (Nov – Mac)
Monsson Flood
Flash Flood
South West Monsoon
(June–August)
Haze
Tropical Cyclone
(May – Nov)
Strong Winds and
Rough Seas
Three Types of Monsoon (based on
the wind flow patterns) :
1.
North East monsoon (Nov-March):

steady easterly or northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 knots
prevail

surges of cold air from the north (cold surges) bring heavy
rainfall to Malaysia

Malaysia experience more rainfall (east coast states of Peninsular
Malaysia are mostly affected)
Mean Streamline for November (NE Monsoon)
850hPa
Mean Streamline for December (NE Monsoon)
850hPa
2. South West monsoon (May-Sept):
 the prevailing wind flow is generally southwesterly
and light, below 15 knots
•
During the months of May to November, when TC
frequently develop over the west Pacific and move
westwards across the Philippines, southwesterly winds over
the northwest coast of Sabah and Sarawak region may
strengthen reaching 20 knots or more
– tail effect of TC over Malaysia (especially over Sabah)
Mean Streamline for July (SW Monsoon)
850hPa
Mean Streamline for August (SW Monsoon)
850hPa
3.
Inter monsoon (Apr & Oct):
 winds are generally light and variable
 the equatorial trough lies over Malaysia
Mean Streamline for April and October (Inter Monsoon)
850hPa
THE EFFECT OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARDS MALAYSIA
WEATHER
• During SW monsoon in Malaysia (May-Sept) or Northern
Hemisphere Summer :
– Western North Pacific is favorable for TC formation
– The normal passage of TC is westwards across the
Philippines, recurring northeastwards as they approach
the Asiatic land mass
– Malaysia may experience tail effect of TC
• During NE monsoon (Nov-Mar) :
– TC formation in Western North Pacific is rare
– Based on past records, Malaysia suffered direct strikes
from TC mainly during this period
– In associated to Borneo Vortex embedded in the equatorial
trough
– A vortex can develop to a TC
Tropical Cyclone Common Path
Malaysia
Past Tropical Cyclone Events In
Malaysia
 Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996)
 Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999)
 Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001)
Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996)
 Formed in the South China Sea as
TD on Dec 21
 Headed east-southeastward,
strengthened into the final TS on the
24th
 After reaching a peak of 45 knots
winds it crossed the northern part of
Borneo on the 25th.
 Continued east-southeastward until
dissipation on the 27th, south of the
Philippines
• Caused flooding and severe
mudslides in Sabah
• Leaved more than 4,000 people
homeless
• Destruction of coral reefs
• Fatalities : 238 people
• Damage : $52 million USD
Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999)
 Stretched out from the northwest
Borneo coast early on Jan 4
 Developed into a TD and moved
slowly to the north away from the
Borneo coast, becoming TS Hilda
early on Jan 6
• Caused flooding and landslides
in Sabah
• Fatalities : 6 people
• Damage : $1.3 million USD
Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001)
 Developed on Dec 26 at 1.4°N in the
South China Sea
 Strengthened quickly and made
landfall along extreme southeastern
Malaysia
 Rapidly dissipated over Sumatra on
Dec 28, and the remnants eventually
re-organized in the North Indian
Ocean
• Brought flooding and landslides to
eastern Malaysia
• Fatalities : 5 people
• Damage : $4.2 million USD
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONITORING
AND FORECASTING IN MALAYSIA
• TC monitoring and forecasting tools:
 JMA Typhoon Track
 JTWC Typhoon Center
 NWP products (MMD-WRF, GFS and NOGAPS)
 Satellite image :
• MTSAT
• FY-2E
 Radar echo
UpperStesen
Air and
Surface
Rangkaian
Radar,Synop
Satelit, Udara
Atas
Observation
Principal
Station Network
Dan Pencemaran
Udara
Upper Air
Station (8)
Principal Synop Surface
Observation Station (22)
Satellite
and Udara Atas
Rangkaian Stesen
Radar, Satelit,
Dan Pencemaran Udara
Radar Network
(Doppler)
Satellite Satation (1)
Radar Station (12)
JTWC Typhoon Center
JMA Typhoon Track
FY-2E
EC Wind Chart
Wind chart (850 hPa) – useful to
detect areas of strong winds over
Malaysia waters
JMA Wind Chart
MET Malaysia 6Panel Wind Chart
MTSAT
MMD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM
Radar
Observation
Surface
Observation
Marine
Observation
Aircraft
Observation
Weather
Camera
Upper Air
Observation
Data Collection and Analysis
Weather Forecast Centre
Warning Dissemination
Public
Satellite
Observation
Dissemination of Sea Condition, Weather
Forecast and Warning
MMD WEBSITE
MASS MEDIA – TV , RADIO & NEWSPAPER
WEB SITE : www.met.gov.my
MMD SMS INFORMATION SYSTEM
SMS
CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING
Warning
Stage
Yellow
Orange
Criteria
Possible Impact
Possibility of a monsoonal surge in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Moderate monsoon rain is currently occurring or expected to
occur in the next 24 hours.

Flooding over low-lying areas
and areas by river banks.
Low-pressure system/tropical depression with sustained wind
speed of 50 - 60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.

Red

Strong wind with sustained wind speed of 50-60 kmph (whole
tree in motion; inconvenience felt when walking against wind)
with slight to moderate rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.
Thatched/zinc roofs can be
blown off by the wind.

Heavy widespread monsoon rain is currently occurring or
expected to occur in the next few hours.
Flooding over low-lying areas
and areas by the river banks.

Tropical storm/typhoon with sustained wind speed of at least
60 kmph accompanied by moderate to heavy rain.
Swift water currents can be
dangerous to children playing
besides monsoon drains and
river banks.
Strong wind with sustained wind speed of at least 60 kmph
(breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress when walking
against wind; structure damage occurs) with moderate to heavy
rain and has lasted for the last 2 hours.
Thatched/zinc roofs can be
blown off by the wind.

CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WARNING
Warning Stage
Criteria
First Category

Possible Impact
Strong wind with speed Dangerous to small
from 40-50 kmph and
crafts.
rough sea with wave
height up to 3.5 meter.
Tropical Depression /
Tropical Storm detected
over the high seas (more
than 400 km or 200
nautical miles from the
coast bringing strong
winds and rough seas as
described above).

Dangerous to
recreational sea
activities and sea
sports.
CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WARNING
Warning Stage
Criteria
Possible Impact
Second
Category

Strong wind with speed
from 50-60 kmph and
rough sea with wave
height up to 4.5 meter.
Dangerous to all shipping
activities including fishing
and ferry services.
Tropical Depression /
Tropical Storm detected
in the high seas or the
EEZ Malaysia and
increasing in intensity.

Dangerous to all coastal
activities.
CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WARNING
Warning Stage
Criteria
Third
Category

Possible Impact
Strong wind with speed Dangerous to all
from 60 kmph and rough shipping activities.
sea with wave height up
to 5.5 meter.
Dangerous to all
workers on oil
platform.
 Tropical storm/typhoon
heading towards the
Dangerous to all
coastal areas of
coastal activities.
Malaysia.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Strong Wind And Rough Seas Warning
Thank You