Open access resource economics Why the free market fails to protect resources 1 Motivation • Group Project: Otters eating lots of shellfish, south of Pt. Conception. Marine Fisheries Service considering removing otters, and you are doing a CBA on the policy. What is the damage the otters are causing and thus the value of restricting them to the north of Pt. Conception? – See http://www.bren.ucsb.edu/research/2001Group_Projects/Final _Docs/otters_final.pdf • Value of reforming management of spiny lobster fishery? Abalone fishery? • Value of “rationalizing” open access fisheries in Mexico? 2 Examples • Worm et al, Science, 2006: All fisheries could collapse by 2048 • Costello et al, Science, 2008: Fisheries that use market-based regulation don’t collapse 3 Some terms we will use • Stock – total amount of critters -- biomass • Intrinsic growth rate (recruitment) – biologic term • Harvest – how many are extracted (flow) • Effort – how hard fisherman try to harvest (economic term) 4 Simple Model of Fish Biology • Exponential growth Stock, x – With constant growth rate, r: – = rx x=aert t • Crowding/congestion/food limits (drag) – Carrying capacity: point, k, where stock cannot grow anymore: x ≤ k – As we approach k, “drag” on system keeps us from going further – Resource limitations, spawning location limitations k x t 5 Put growth and drag together Biomass (x) Growth Rate time x 6 Put growth and drag together Biomass (x) Growth Rate time “Carrying Capacity” (k) x 7 Put growth and drag together Biomass (x) Growth Rate time xMSY Stock that gives “maximum sustainable yield” x 8 Put growth and drag together Should we want MSY? Biomass (x) Growth Rate time xMSY Stock that gives “maximum sustainable yield” x 9 Interpreting the growth-stock curve AKA: recruitment-stock; yield-biomass curves GR Growth rate of population depends on stock size low stock slow growth high stock slow growth dx/dt = g(x) x 10 Introduce harvesting H1 GR H2 H3 xc xb xa x H1: nonsustainable extinction H2: MSY – consistent with stock size Xb H3: consistent with two stock sizes, xa and xc xa is stable equilibrium; xc is unstable. Why?? 11 Introduce humans • Harvest depends on – How hard you try (“effort”); stock size; technology – H = E*x*k H k = technology “catchability” E = effort (e.g. fishing days) x = biomass or stock Harvest for high effort kEHx kELx Harvest for low effort x 12 Will stock grow or shrink with harvest? • If more fish are harvested than grow, population shrinks. • If more fish grow than are harvested, population grows. • For any given E and k, what harvest level is just sustainable? k*E*x = g(x) H(E) = g(x) (1) (2) • This can be solved for the sustainable harvest level as a function of E: H(E) – Solve (1) first for x(E) – Substitute into (2) to get H(E) 13 “Yield-effort curve” H(E) Gives sustainable harvest as a function of effort level Notice that this looks like recruitment-stock graph. This is different though it comes from recruitment-stock relation. E 14 Introduce economics • Costs of harvesting effort – TC = w•E • w is the cost per unit effort • Revenues from harvesting – TR = p•H(E) • p is the price per unit harvest • Draw the picture 15 Two outcomes: Open Access vs. Efficient TC=w*E $ TR=p*H(E) E $/E MR AR w MC=AC EMSY EOA E 16 Two outcomes: Open Access vs. Efficient Rents to the fishery TC=w*E $ TR=p*H(E) E $/E MR AR w MC=AC E* EMSY E 17 Two outcomes: Open Access vs. Efficient Rents to the fishery TC=w*E $ TR=p*H(E) E $/E Value of fishery maximized at E*. Profits attract entry to EOA (open access) MR w AR MC=AC E* EMSY EOA E 18 Open access resource • Economic profit: when revenues exceed costs (not accounting profit) • Open access creates externality of entry. – I’m making profit, that attracts you, you harvest fish, stock declines, profits decline. • Entrants pay AC, get AR (should get MR<AR) – So fishers enter until AR = AC ( TR = TC) • But even open access is sustainable – Though not socially desirable • What is social value of fish caught in open access fishery? – Zero: total value of fish = total cost of catching them 19 Illustration of steady state outcomes Maximum Sustainable Yield (Effort EMSY) Sustainable Catch ○ ○ ○ Open Access Catch (Effort EOA) Efficient Catch (Effort E*) Note: efficient catch lets biology (stock) do some of the work! X 20 Mechanics of solving fishery pblms (with solutions for specific functions) • Start with biological mechanics: – G(X) = aX – bX2 [G, growth; X stock] • Harvest depends on effort: H=qEX • Sustainable harvest when G(X) = H – First compute X as a function of E – Then substitute for X in harvest equation to yield H(E) which will depend on E only • Costs: TC = c E • Total Revenue TR=p*H(E) where p is price of fish • Open access: find E where TC=TR • Efficient access: find E where – Marginal revenue from effort (dTR/dE) equals – Marginal cost (cost per unit of effort) 21 Example: NE Lobster Fishery • Bell (1972) used data to determine catch (lb. lobsters) per unit of effort (# traps), using 1966 data – H(E) = 49.4 E - 0.000024E2 • Price is perfectly elastic at $0.762/lb. • Average cost of effort: $21.43 per trap • Open access equilibrium: TC = TR – E=891,000 traps; H=25 million lbs. – Compare to actual data: E=947,000;H=25.6 million lbs. • Maximum Sustainable Yield – E=1,000,000 traps; H=25.5 million lbs. • Efficient equilibrium – E=443,000 traps; H=17.2 million lbs. 22