OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN
AMERICA?
THE WAR ON TERROR
 U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game
 Co-existence with geo-economic game
 Latin America:
 “spectator” role in geopolitics
 active participation in geo-economic game
PREVAILING CONDITIONS
 Ideological divisions: left, right, center
 Prevalence of democratic discourse
 Focus on “strategic options”
 Unavailable alternatives:
 Bolivarian dream of collective unity
 Rule of international law, organizations
 Social revolution
 Thus: geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on
geopolitics)
GE0-ECONOMICS
1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
 Vicente Fox (Mexico)
 Hopes for immigration reform
 NAFTA constraints
 Opposition throughout Latin America
 Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too)
 Colombia
 Guatemala
 The FTA Club
 Chile [special case]
 Central America + DR
 Peru
 Colombia
 Panama
GEO-ECONOMICS
2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY
 Brazil (Lula + Dilma)
 Grandeza brasileira
 Role in Haiti
 Resistance to FTAA
 Venezuela (Chávez)
 ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)
 International assistance programs
 Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries
 Denunciations of Bush and USA
 Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)
GEO-ECONOMICS
3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY
 Brazil (Lula)
 WTO
 Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21)
 G3, G5
 Venezuela (Chávez)
 Non-Aligned Movement
 UN Security Council
 Petroleum exporters (including Iran)
GEO-ECONOMICS
4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE
 Europe
 Divisions over Iraq
 Concern about EU future
 FTAs with Mexico, Chile
 Distancing from/by Spain
 Asia
 Withdrawal of Japan
 Eruption of “China fever”
 PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina,
Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and
cooperative relations” with Cuba
 Iran?
 Really?
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
 Exports to China, 2008:
 Argentina
9.0%
 Brazil
12.4%
 Chile
4.8%
 Mexico
0.7%
 Cuba
18.4%
 Liberation from IMF:
 Argentina
2005 ($9.8 bn)
 Brazil
2005 ($15.5 bn)
 IMF “relegated to sidelines”
U.S. SHARES OF TRADE, 2000-2010
 Imports
 Argentina
 Brazil
 Chile
 Mexico
 Venezuela
__2000__
 Exports
 Argentina
 Brazil
 Chile
 Mexico
 Venezuela
__2000__
19.1
23.1
17.8
72.0
33.5
12.0
22.4
16.8
88.7
51.9
___2010___
13.8
15.0
17.0
60.6
26.6
___2010___
5.4
9.6
10.4
73.5
38.7
POLITICAL DIMENSIONS
 Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies
 Resuscitation of Cuba
 Regional organizations w/o USA:






Rio Group (1986, 23 members)
Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008,
33 members)
CELAC (2010, 33 members)
Ibero-American Summits (1991)
MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)
UNASUR (2005)
BILATERAL DIMENSIONS
 Argentina: “a distant relationship”
 Brazil: “getting better all the time”
 Chile: “cooperative friendship”
 Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”
THE BENEFITS OF
INATTENTION?