AP Statistics Syllabus College Board Course Description The purpose of the AP course in statistics is to introduce students to the major concept tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns 2. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study 3. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation 4. Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses According to the College Board, upon entering this course students are expected to have mathematical maturity and quantitative reasoning ability. Mathematical maturity could be defined as a complete working knowledge of the graphical and algebraic concepts. In contrast to many math classes, this course will require reading of the text. This AP Statistics course is taught as an activity-based course in which students actively construct their own understanding of the concepts and techniques of statistics. Technology All students have access to TI-84 graphing calculators for use in class. Students will use graphing calculators extensively throughout the course. Each chapter of the text devotes one or more sections to the use of technology including calculators. Various applets on the Internet as well as the ActivStats CD will be utilized to enhance understanding. Course Text and Supplements Bock, David E., Paul F. Velleman and Richard D. De Veaux. Stats: Modeling the World, third edition, AP edition. Boston, MA: Pearson/Addison-Wesley, 2010. Supplements Yates, Daniel S., David S. Moore, Darren S. Starnes. The Practice of Statistics, third edition., New York, NY: WH Freeman and Company, 2008. Course Outline 1. Exploring Data (Approximately 45 days) a. Constructing and interpreting graphical displays of distributions of univariate data (dotplot, stemplot, histogram, cumulative frequency plot) i. Center and spread ii. Clusters and gaps iii. Outliers and other unusual features iv. Shape Chapters: 1 – 4 Activity: M&M Data Collection Technology: Enter data in lists, create histograms, and explore effect of class width on histogram shape b. Summarizing distributions of univariate data i. Measuring center: median, mean ii. Measuring spread: range, interquartile range, standard deviation iii. Measuring position: quartiles, percentiles, standardized scores (z-scores) iv. Using boxplots v. The effect of changing units on summary measures Chapters: 4, 6 Activity: M&M Mean and Standard Deviation Technology: Calculate 1-variable statistics, use normal cdf and invnorm commands c. Comparing distributions of univariate data (dotplots, back-to-back stemplots, parallel boxplots) i. Comparing center and spread: within group, between group variation ii. Comparing clusters and gaps iii. Comparing outliers and other unusual features iv. Comparing shapes Chapter: 5 Activity: Auto Safety Boxplots d. Exploring bivariate data i. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots ii. Correlation and linearity iii. Least-squares regression line iv. Residual plots, outliers, and influential points v. Transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic and power transformations Chapters: 7 – 10 Activity: Sibling scatterplots, How many licks to the center of the tootsie pop?,Decay of skittleium Technology: Display scatterplots, perform regression, calculate residuals, create residual plots, perform transformations using lists e. Exploring categorical data i. Frequency tables and bar charts ii. Marginal and joint frequencies for two way tables iii. Conditional relative frequencies and association iv. Comparing distributions using bar charts Chapters: 3, 4 Activity: Students will analyze and interpret statistical information about race and the death penalty. They will write a newspaper article discussing the association between race and death sentences in the United States. The writing will include visual, numerical, and verbal support for their position. 2. Sampling and Experimentation (Approximately 25 days) a. Overview of methods of data collection i. Census ii. Sample Survey iii. Experiment iv. Observational study Chapters: 11 – 13 b. Planning and conducting surveys i. Characteristics of well-designed and well-conducted survey ii. Populations, samples, and random selection iii. Sources of bias in sampling and surveys iv. Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling Chapter: 11 Activity: Why Randomize?, Methods of Sampling c. Planning and conducting experiments i. Characteristics of well-designed and well-conducted experiment ii. Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignments, and replication iii. Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding iv. Completely randomized design v. Randomized block design, including matched pairs design Chapter: 13 Activity: Bean Bull’s Eye Activity d. Generalizability of results and types of conclusion that can be drawn from observational studies experiments, and surveys Activity: M&M Experiment Technology: Generating Random Numbers 3. Anticipating Patterns (Approximately 45 days) a. Probability i. Interpreting probability, including long-run relative frequency interpretation ii. Law of large numbers concept iii. Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability, and independence iv. Discrete random variables and their probability distributions, including binomial and geometric v. Simulation of random behavior and probability distributions vi. Mean (expected value) and standard deviation of a random variable, and linear transformation of a random variable Chapters: 14 – 15 Activity: Rock, Paper, Scissors, Art Technology: Calculate mean and standard deviation of a random variable, geometric probabilities, binomial probabilities b. Combining independent random variables i. Notion of independence versus dependence ii. Mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables Chapter: 16 c. The normal distribution i. Properties of the normal distribution ii. Using tables of the normal distribution iii. The normal distribution as a model for measurements iv. Sampling distributions v. Sampling distribution of a sample proportion vi. Sampling distribution of a sample mean vii. Central limit theorem viii. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample proportions ix. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample means x. Simulation of sampling distributions xi. T-distribution xii. Chi-square distribution Chapters: 17, 18, 23, 26 Technology: t-test, p test, Chi-square 4. Statistical Inference (Approximately 35 days) a. Estimation i. Estimating population parameters and margins of error ii. Properties of point estimators, including unbiasedness and variability iii. Logic of confidence intervals, meaning of confidence level and confidence intervals, and properties of confidence intervals iv. Large sample confidence interval for a proportion v. vi. vii. viii. Large sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions Confidence interval for a mean Confidence interval for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired) Confidence interval for the slope of a least-squares regression line Chapter: 19 Activity: Capture, Recapture Technology: Confidence intervals b. Tests of significance i. Logic and significance testing, null and alternative hypothesis, p-values, oneand two-sided tests, concepts of Type I and Type II errors, concept of power ii. Large sample test for a proportion iii. Large sample test for a difference between two proportions iv. Test for a mean v. Test for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired) vi. Chi-square test for goodness of fit, homogeneity of proportions, and independence (one- and two-way tables) vii. Test for the slope of a least-squares regression line Chapters 21,22,24,27 Activity: M&Ms Goodness of Fit Activity, Global Toss Activity Technology: Testing a hypothesis, Creating confidence interval 5. Review for AP Exam, Presentation of Culminating Project, AP Exam (Approximately 25 days) AP Statistics Culminating Project Students will conduct an observational study of their choosing. (Topic must be approved by instructor). Data will be collected either by survey or Internet research. The project will be done individually – a written report and presentation are required. Written Report Students will pose a question, and, before conducting their study, they will make a conjecture about the conclusion. A brief introduction describing why that question was chosen and the manner in which they will form a statistical conclusion. Next, using a survey or Internet research, students will collect their data (with a minimum sample size of 30). The students will define how their data was collected and if there are any confounding factors to worry about. Once the data is collected, an appropriate graphical display should be constructed and any observations documented about the data distribution. Next, the proper test should be conducted (making sure to verify any assumptions). Once the test has been conducted, the student should use the test results to form a statistically sound conclusion (making sure the conclusion is worded properly and in context of the study). Finally, the students will reflect on the study and the conclusion and state any bias, confounding, or problems with design. Oral Presentation The individual students will briefly present their study and conclusion to the class using audio/visual aids such as posters, PowerPoint, document camera, smartboard, etc. Following the presentation, the students will field questions from class. AP Credit UK 3 4 5 SPA 202 SPA 320 SPA 320 or 322 Morehead 3, 4 or 5 MAT 123 EKU 3 4 or 5 STA 215 STA 270 BSCTC 3, 4 or 5 STA 220