Overview of Databases
(TRAINS, IDB, CTS,COMTRADE)
operated by
UNCTAD-World Bank
World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
Lucian Cernat
International Trade Division
WITS vs Databases
WITS is a software which is designed to
integrate several trade-related databases
and provide easy access
Four major databases are currently
accessible through WITS
Databases of WITS
•
•
•
•
TRAINS (UNCTAD)
COMTRADE (UN Statistics Division)
Integrated Database (IDB-WTO)
Consolidated Tariff Schedule (CTSWTO)
Data Accessibility
• COMTRADE: Free access to International
Organizations, others against a fee
• TRAINS: Access to governments and
international and regional organizations, as well
as to donors to TRAINS Trust Fund
• WTO: Access to WTO member governments and
selected international organizations
Data contents of TRAINS
(as of 1 April 2007)
• Tariff measures at national tariff line level for 161
countries (956 country/years since 1988),
including preferential rates such as RTA and GSP
in many cases
Primary data are drawn from
UN TARMAC
UN Tariff and Market Access Database
A joint effort with the
International Trade Centre (ITC)
Data contents of TRAINS (continued)
• Import statistics by origin at Harmonized
System (HS) 6-digit level for every countryyear by constructing mirror imports where
necessary
• Non-Tariff Measures classified according to
UNCTAD Coding System of Trade Control
Measures (97 countries, 150 country/years)
WITS Functionality
• Data retrieval and analysis
• Quick query
• Advanced query
• Tariff Change Simulations
• Other options
Quick Query
Direct access to the Database
– By country and/or by product
– Export raw data
– Extraction by criteria
Advanced Query
Users construct queries comprising of:
–
–
–
–
Reporter countries
Products
Partner countries
Years
Custom Query – Parameters
Reporter Countries
– Individual countries or user-defined
groups of countries
Products
– Individual products or user-defined
aggregates of products in various
product classifications (HS, SITC,ISIC,
etc)
Custom Query – Parameters
Partner Countries
– Same as Reporter Countries. “World” is
treated as an individual country
Years
– From 1988
Custom Query – submission
Further options before submitting
• MFN rates (default) , Bound Rates and/or
Effectively Applied (preferential) rates
• Latest available year for each reporter
country
• Substitution of unavailable year with the
nearest available year
• Breakdown of country groups
Custom Query – results
Main indicators
• Simple and trade weighted tariff
averages
• Value of imports
– Duty free
– Dutiable
– Non-ad valorem rates
• Distribution of tariff rates
TRADE : ADVANCED QUERIES
• The Advanced Query is a more complex but more powerful
and flexible tool for sophisticated queries :
– Can retrieve trade for several years, partners and products with a
single query;
– Can retrieve aggregated trade for groups of countries or products;
• The process goes through two steps :
– The user defines, saves and submits his query
– The server runs the query and notifies when results are ready.
Once the Data Source has been
selected, a set of folders appears
on the top left side of the Query
Definition window.
Those folders may vary
depending on the chosen data
source.
Selecting Reporters
Click on the Reporters
folder. A selection box
appears on the right.
Now, click on the Products folder.
The product selection panel
appears.
Advanced Query offers many
possibilities for selecting Products.
To get results, you have to use
nomenclatures available for the
selected reporter(s).
Selecting Partners
Now, click on the Partner Countries
folder. The selection panel appears. It
is the same as the one we’ve seen for
selecting Reporters.
Hypothetical Example: Tariff peaks and escalation
• Question:
– Investigate the existence of tariff peaks and tariff escalation in
country group A (USA, Canada, EU and Japan) on silk products
originating in developing countries
• Steps:
– Create country aggregates (group A, developing countries)
– Create product aggregates (raw, semi finished, finished silk)
Go to WITS
Tariff peaks
Tariff escalation
International peaks
Domestic peaks
International peaks
Domestic peaks
International peaks
Domestic peaks
International peaks
Domestic peaks
Pr
ef
er
en
Pr
ef M tia
er F l 1
en N 99
Pr
ef M tial 19 6
er F 1 96
en N 99
Pr
ef M tial 199 7
er F 1 7
en N 99
Pr
ef M tial 199 8
er F 1 8
en N 99
t 1 9
M ial 2 999
FN 0
20 00
00
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Number of tariff peaks
Incidence of Tariff Peaks
20
18
16
Silk Escalation (Weighted Average Tariffs)
Raw silk - Pref
Raw silk - MFN
Silk Yarn - Pref
Silk yarn - MFN
Woven silk - Pref
Woven silk - MFN
Finished Silk - Pref
Finished Silk - MFN
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1996
2000
Raw silk
Silk yarn
Woven silk
Finished
silk
Contents
• Part I : Trade statistics
– Data extraction tools
– Example: tariff peaks and escalation
•Part II: Trade liberalization simulations
– The model: assumptions, parameters, results
– Example
Tariff Change Simulation
(Single market simulation model)
-
Trade Creation and Diversion effects
Tariff revenue effect
Welfare effect
Importer and Exporter Views
Tariff Change Simulation
(Single market simulation model)
Assumptions:
– Each product is independent
– A same product from different supplier is an
imperfect substitute
– Three sets of elasticties (Demand, Supply and
Substitution between two suppliers)
Tariff Change Simulation
Results of Simulation
- First round effect of tariff reduction
- No time horizon
- No cost of structural adjustment
Main Assumptions and Parameters
Assumptions
– Changes in the demand for imports, as a result of tariff changes
– Changes in relative prices among exporters and a change in market shares
– Changes in the export supply as a result of tariff/price changes
Parameters
– Import demand elasticities – literature review
– Export supply elasticities – infinite, but this can be changed
– Elasticities of substitution - Armington
For a detailed description of the SMART model:
Laird and Yeats (1986), Karsenty and Vossenaar (1989)
Main Results
• Trade creation (TC)
– Increased exports as a results of changes in demand and
prices
• Trade diversion (TD)
– Substitution of goods from different exporters(changes in
market shares), due to changes in relative prices
• Total trade effect = TC + TD
• Other effects
– Tariff revenue changes, welfare effects, consumer surplus,
price effects (if any)
Go to WITS
Simulations
• Changes in bound tariffs take effect only when the new
bound rate is lower than the old applied rate
• Tariff cutting options
• Maximum rate
• Linear cut
• Swiss formula
• Canadian formula
• User-defined formula
Other options
• Modified Swiss formula (Francois and Martin)
• A band approach to maximum rate or linear cut
• An SDT approach
• A sectoral approach
Swiss Formula
New rate = (old rate x p)/(old rate + p)
Swiss formula (p=16)
14
New Rate (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
Old Rate (%)
40
50
60
User defined
modalities
if (r0<=5) Then
r1=0
if (r0>100) then
r1=100
if (r0>5 and
r0<100) Then r1
= (r0*25)/(r0+25)
Economist Toolkit Example
• Example: 20% MFN bound tariff reduction
in the US
• Total trade effect: market share analysis
0
Albania
Antigua and Barbuda
Australia
Bahrain
Belarus
Benin
Bolivia
Brazil
Brunei
Burundi
Canada
Central African
Christmas Island
Cook Islands
Croatia
Denmark
Ecuador
Eritrea
Faeroe Islands
France
Georgia
Gibraltar
Guinea
Honduras
India
Israel
Japan
Kenya
Latvia
Liberia
Macao
Malaysia
Malta
Mexico
Montserrat
Myanmar
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
Oman
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Qatar
Rwanda
Saudi Arabia
Sierra Leone
Slovenia
South Africa
St. Kitts and Nevis
Sudan
Sweden
Taiwan
Thailand
Tonga
Turkey
Uganda
United Kingdom
Venezuela
Zimbabwe
Number of HS-6 lines
Exporter Analysis
Market share analysis
market share erosion
market share expansion
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
HS-6 code
940390
902990
871680
854330
851822
850152
846510
844340
840120
810419
741819
731589
722592
721070
701951
681250
630533
620811
611511
610312
580134
551591
550520
540110
520841
510610
480540
420211
392119
390450
370242
320417
292144
291250
290329
283190
240399
160590
080300
010120
Countries
Product Analysis
Positive trade effects, by product and number of countries
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Doha Proposals in WITS
• WTO Doha Proposals” simulates the tariff
reduction proposals submitted to the WTO’s
Negotiating Group on Market Access.
More flexible, user-defined tariff change formula
option is under development
Improvement for immediate future
• Multi-market Simulation Model
– Incorporation of GSIM model in WITS/TRAINS
Computer Requirement
– PC of reasonable speed (minimum 200MHZ)
– Windows 98, 2000 or XP
– Internet Explorer version 5.0 or higher
– Internet Access with 50mb of disk space
How to Install WITS
Register at http://wits.worldbank.org/witsweb
Receive userid and password via e-mail
Download installation file from
http://wits.worldbank.org/install.htm
Install
CONTACT
Trade Information Section
UNCTAD/DITC/TAB
Palais des Nations
1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
E-mail: wits@unctad-trains.org
Fax: +41 22 917 0044