Megatrends and Tasks of the Researcher
Real Estate Market Analyst
„An Appeal for an Europe-wide Standardized Job Profile“
ERES 2010 Milano
June 24th 2010
Dr. Thomas Beyerle
Head of Global Research
Contents
•
Determining Factors – Megatrends
•
Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market
•
Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment
•
Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
1
Real Estate Research – behind the trend?
Mega-Issues since 1997
Real Estate Appraisal
Project Development
Facility Management
CREM/FM
Securitization, Mortgaging
Real Estate Banking/Financing - REITs
Investment Appraisal (DCF); Non-normed Appraisal Methods – Structured
Finance – NPL-Emerging Markets
Asset, Portfolio and Risk Management
Credit Derivatives – Core, Core+ Value added
Opportunity
Every 6 months
on average a
„new“ issue is
being introduced
Crisis Management,
Refurbishment– Green Building
– Property Management
Demographic
Change
Financial Crisis
Debt
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2
Formation and Development of Megatrends
4 Dimensions of the Crystal ball
Current
Developments/
Trends
Megatrends/
Assumptions
Future
Strategies
„Coincidences“
3
Megatrends and the Real Estate Markets
Overview: Factors of Influence
At present
In the future
Effects
Megatrends in relation to…
Political and economic structural
change: dynamic
Social change: complexity
Ecological and technological
change: efficiency
Commercial Properties
Residential, retail, and leisure
properties
All property segments
4
What will be forthcoming in the near future?
Megatrends and their impact on the Real Estate Industry
We know this already
5
Contents
•
Determining Factors – Megatrends
•
Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market
•
Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment
•
Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
6
Overview Impact of Global Trends on Employees
In the Real Estate Business
Globalisation
Knowledge-based
Tertiarisation of Jobs
Economy
Economy /
Labour
Market
Information Society
Demographic Change
7
Global Trends
Globalisation
• Shift of activity between and within regions
• Growing number of consumers in emerging economies/changing consumer
tastes
• Increasingly global labour and talent markets
• Increasing constraints on the supply and usage of natural resources
• Shifting industry structures / emerging forms of corporate organization
• Geopolitical instability
• Increasing sophistication of capital markets
• But also increasing Hysteria!
• SARS,
• Terrorism
• Swine flu
• Ash cloud…..
8
Global Trends
Tertiarisation of Jobs
• Growth of public sector - decrease of jobs in primary sector and on traditional
industries, increase in the service sector and also in sectors related to the
knowledge economy
Employment trends
• In 2015 around 30% of all jobs need high skills and 50% medium qualifications.
The demand for low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%.
• Skill needs will grow in every occupation
• Sectors identified as potential creators of work in the future are: aerospace,
audiovisual industry, aviation, banks and insurance companies, defence,
ecological economy, information technology, pharmaceutical, safety, media,
transports, tourism and travels.
• And Real Estate?
9
Global Trends
Demographics
• World population in 2015 will be 7.2 billion, up from 6.1 billion in the year 2000
• 2007: more then 50% of global population are city dweller
• Combination of population growth, migration and urbanisation will foster instability
• Declining birth rates and aging in advanced countries will leave significant shortfalls in
the size and capacity of the work force (iPad kills sex)
• Demand for qualified workers (quality vs. quantity)
• Brain drain
• In some developing countries same trends will combine to expand the size of the
working population and reduce the youth bulge – increasing the potential for economic
growth and political stability
• But how to benefit from the best ager?
10
Global Trends
Information Society
• Development of technologies empower
consumers and communities (online
connectivity)
• Adoption of increasingly scientific and
data-driven management techniques
• Increasing availability of knowledge and
the ability to exploit it
• Faster pace of technological innovation
• Dissolution of space or necessity of
centralization, access to IUK
technologies
11
Explosion of Information
Dramatic Reduction of Half-Life
“The limits of my language mean
the limits of my world”
Ludwig Wittgenstein, Engineer and Philosopher
• Between 2000 and 2008 there was more data
produced than it has been in the last 40.000
years
• Quadruplicating of data between 2005 and
2008
Source: UC Berkeley
The weekend edition of the New York Times
contained more information than a human
being has taken in a hundred years ago
during his entire life!
12
Global Trends
Knowledge-based Economy
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Education and training as a fundament for sustainable success
Innovation as a central factor for competition in real estate
Rise of the Creative Class
Open business / innovation systems & networks and business mash-ups
More diverse work structures, patch work biographies
New values added networks
Platform-based economy
13
Contents
•
Determining Factors – Megatrends
•
Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market
•
Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment
•
Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
14
Corporate Organisation in Real Estate
Shifting Forms of co-operation
•
•
•
•
•
Project work
Interdisciplinary teams
Demystification of hierarchy:
Partner instead of superior
Flexible work schedule individualized
according to the employees needs
Corporate attitude to elderly employees on an
individual approach to be managed, trained
and remunerated
15
Challenged Employees
Engaging Masterminds
Increasing importance of extra functional qualifications
•
•
•
•
Social skills
Communication / elocution
Presentation method
Personality vs. technocrat
16
Working Environment
Challenges for Employees
Increase of Knowledge
Work-Life-Balance
Increase of mental activities
Mix of work, private life,
flexibilisation
Necessity of more specific
/professional knowledge
Competence-Management:
Responsibility for own
qualification
Necessity of integrated
knowledge from
increasingly more areas
More responsibilities, which
demand skills of creativity
and improvisation
Overstraining and Burn-out
suffering
Employee
Lower influence on schedule of
job history
• The working environment is getting more complex. Employees have to manage their career much
more on their own initiative than before.
• A fluid and rapidly changing business market means that employees need regular training: soft
skills like adaptability, communication, and emotional intelligence are becoming more important,
particularly when working across cultures.
17
Lifelong Learning
Professional Life Cycle (BCG-Matrix)
Maslow Pyramid – Up-date: „Trophy Generation“
Everyone gets a "Thanks for Participating” trophy,
symbolizing a perceived sense of entitlement.
Cash Cow
Star
Poor dog
?
Age of 0-27
Establishment
of basis!
Age of 28-49
Investment
Further training
Age of 50-65
Hold and skim
Age over 65
Deinvest
Harley Davidson
18
Lifelong Learning
Reason for advanced vocational training
Advanced vocational training – most important
reasons
in % of the respondents:
Adaption to new developments
55
Prevention of career decline
54
Prospects of career advancement
53
Deepening of professional knowledge
45
Improvement of professional knowledge
33
Source: BMBF
19
Contents
•
Determining Factors – Megatrends
•
Megatrends and its Impact on the Labour Market
•
Corporate Government and a Changing Working Environment
•
Job Profile - Real Estate Market Analyst
20
Real Estate Market Research
Definition and General Objective
• Real Estate Market Research is
defined to be the systematic and
efficient surveying and analyses of
real estate and property markets (of
all kind of property) plus their
conditions and factors of influence.
This includes i.a. the collection,
weighting and valuation of information
about the real estate market (letting
and investment market), which are
directly or indirectly related to the
property by applying scientific
methods.
• Aim is security of capital investment,
plans or visions by figures
respectively forecasts.
21
Real Estate Research – the eternal data provider?
Quantity = Quality ?
• Nowadays a dozen companies report more or less often about the real estate
markets of an international city
• Increasing relevance of research as a strategic competitive factor – not solely a
vehicle for PR, but also in particular as a consulting tool
• But: Has the quality increased by broadening the basis?
Current potential reasons for shortness of quality
• Insufficient coverage because of lacking resources or market penetration
• Secrecy, protection of confidence at contract closing
• Information as „good“ – development of strategic value for the one who is
informed
• No global consistent definitions and criteria for data collection
• No global consistent differentiation of market areas
• Pressure-group policy / “improvement of data“
22
Real Estate Corporate Research
• Our survey shows that employees of European Real Estate companies “waste” an
average of 67 minutes a day with searching for information on markets.
• The lack of information might result in wrong decisions in the companies concerned.
• Useful information are the most important competitive factor at the market and thereby
the most valuable asset of a successful company.
• About two thirds employ fewer than 5 researchers per 100 employees. Only
companies that operate in the field of real estate market research have more than
50% of research employees.
• Nearly all surveyed companies are
doing market and location analyses
and data procurement/ analyses.
Almost equally important are market
forecasts - their importance and that of
office market reports will probably grow
in the future.
• It is mainly the quantitative methods
that will gain priority.
23
Current Situation of Real Estate Research Training
Field of Research (case of Germany)
114 real estate study programs (e.g. for real estate management, real estate
economics, facility management, real estate appraisal, urban and regional planning,
real estate and housing industry) are offered at 45 universities and at 22 technical
colleges plus 4 other institutions in Germany
BUT
No Standardised Training for Researchers
• No defined requirements for job access
• Most researchers access companies by internships
• In Germany approx. 2/3 of all researchers are either geographers or business
economists
• Approx. only 10% have participated in further training
• Reason for lacking job profile: fledgling discipline being first introduced by British
companies at the end of the 1980s (U.S. and UK have defined job profile of real estate
analyst resp. property analyst)
24
Long-term Objective
Establishment of an Independent Study Program for Real Estate Market Research
• Research / consulting employment is favoured fourth place by real estate students
after project development, asset and property management and appraisal
• In Germany the position of a real estate researcher is considered to be at entry-level,
most move to another real estate field after 2 or 3 years of professional experience
• Changing market conditions challenge researchers to adapt from a generalist to a
specialist view
Increasing demand of an independent study program
for real estate market research !
25
Real Estate Market Analyst
Dimensions of the Job Profile
Responsibilities
Real Estate
Occupational
Skills
Market
Analyst
Academic
Skills
Personal
Skills
26
Real Estate Market Analyst – Job Requirements
Responsibilities
Basics
Academic Skills
•
Regional, national and/or international market monitoring •
•
Collection of primary and secondary data of real estate
markets/properties/sites
•
Compilation market and location analysis, analysis of
rental and purchase price
•
Development of user concepts
•
Exchange of professional experience with other market
participants
•
Investment/Divestment: Collection of real estate key
numbers in case of acquisition/sale, forecasts,
assessment of (subspace) markets
Company •
Specific •
Compilation of market reports (internal – external)
Compilation project costing
•
Compilation of analysis and presentations for internal and
external addressees
Occupational Skills
Basics
•
Comprehension of relation of economic real estate issues
•
Knowledge of macroeconomic relations/main features of capital
market theory
•
Knowledge of statistics (empirical analysis methods)
•
Knowledge of English Language (written and spoken)
•
Written and oral presentation of results
Support portfolio manager (strategy, monitoring,
identification, selection)
•
•
Personal Skills
Graduation from university in geography, urban
•
development and town planning/architecture, economics
and business studies or comparable
•
•
Company •
Specific
Comprehension of spatial economics
•
Ideally additional qualification/postgraduate study in real •
estate economics
Personal initiative and responsibility (high degree of willingness for
advanced vocational training)
Capacity for strategic-analytic thought/structured approach of tasks
Strong communication skills and expressiveness
Capacity for team work and mediation
Willingness to travel
27
A international network: European Research Organisations
The world of Research - base for a change
Italian Research
Forum
28
The next steps
“I am still learning.”
Michelangelo
Thank you
for your attention!
29
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Telefon:
+49-(0)69 768072-241
E-Mail:
thomas.beyerle@aberdeenpropertyinvestors.com
Internet:
www.aberdeen-immobilien.de
30