liquidity risk - State Bank of Pakistan

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LIQUIDITY RISK &

LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT

in Islamic Banks

Salman Syed Ali

Current Issues in Islamic Finance Lecture 6

1

Lecture Plan

Part-I

LIQUIDITY

SHORTAGE (Risk)

Sources of risk

Implications for Bank and the System

Current practices of mitigation

Recommendations and the Future

Part-II

EXCESS LIQUIDITY

(Low ret.)

Causes

Implications for Bank and the System

Current practices of its management

Recommendations and Future

2

Key References

Abdul Majid, Abdul Rais. 2003. “Development Of Liquidity

Management Instruments: Challenges And Opportunities”, paper presented in International Conference on Islamic

Banking: Risk Management, Regulation and Supervision,

Jakarta –Indonesia, Sept 30- to October 3, 2003.

Ali, Salman Syed. 2004. “Islamic Modes of Finance and

Associated Liquidity Risks” presented in Conference on

Monetary Sector in Iran: Structure, Performance and

Challenging Issues”, Tehran, February 2004.

Shihadeh, Musa A. 2003. “Loss Provisioning in Islamic Banks:

Jordan Islamic Bank Case Study”, paper presented in

International Conference on Islamic Banking: Risk

Management, Regulation and Supervision held in Jakarta-

Indonesia. Jointly organized by Bank Indonesia and IRTI,

October 2003.

3

Dry Climate

Liquidity Shortage

Assassin of banks

4

Flood

 Excess Liquidity: A drag on competition

5

Stability and Solvency of IBs

In theory, Islamic banks are likely to be more stable

They have profit sharing on both the liability side and asset side

6

In practice, Islamic

Banks have fixed income assets but have profit sharing on liability side.

The IBs therefore, are still more stable than conventional banks.

Solvent

Asset tied finance

7

While a majority of Islamic banks have excess liquidity

Some Islamic banks have faced liquidity crisis

Many different risks culminate in liquidity risk

8

Liquidity crunch can be a real problem

Example of Financial Crisis in Turkey

2000-2001

Islamic financial institutions there faced sever liquidity problems

One Islamic institution Ihlas Finans was closed during the crisis

9

LIQUIDITY RISK: Definition

 Risk of Funding [at appropriate maturities and rates]

 Risk of Liquidating Assets [in time at reasonable prices]

10

Investment Firm’s Definition

“liquidity risk includes both the risk of being unable to fund [its] portfolio of assets at appropriate maturities and rates and the risk of being unable to liquidate a position in a timely manner at reasonable prices.” *

* J.P. Morgan Chase (2000).

11

Regulators Definition

“risk to a bank’s earnings and capital arising from its inability to timely meet obligations when they come due without incurring unacceptable losses.”*

* Office of the Comptroller (2000)

12

Analysis and Diagnosis of

Causes

13

LIQUIDITY RISK: Sources

1. Incorrect judgment and complacency

2. Unanticipated change in cost of capital

3. Abnormal behavior of financial markets

4. Range of assumptions used

5. Risk activation by secondary sources

6. Break down of payments system

7. Macroeconomic imbalances

8. Contractual forms

9. Financial Infrastructure deficiency

14

Liquidity Risk & Contractual

Forms

Profit Sharing Contracts

Murabaha

Salam

Istisna

Ijarah

15

Resale not permitted

Resale permitted but non-existent market

Market exists but not active

16

Example of LR in Murabaha

Primary LR

Receivables are debt cannot be sold

Secondary LR

Involves buying of commodity then selling on deferred payment

This brings in many operational, credit, dispute, and legal risks that can affect realization of receivables 17

LR:Current Practices of control

Deposit Management

Choice of Mode of Finance

Maturity Matching and Gap Analysis

Mixing of Deposits

Reserves and Provisions

Deposit Insurance

Interbank Dealings

Ijarah and Salam Sukuks

18

(a) Reserves and Provisions:

Provisions

Specific

General

Reserves

Profit Equalization

Reserve

Investment Risk

Reserve

19

(b) Problems:

Fiqh issue of justice: inter-temporal

/interpersonal transfers

Breaks the link between bank performance and its reflection in profits

Possibility of manipulation to hide losses

Transfer of resources from shareholders to investment account holders (displaced commercial risk)

Loosen the asset and liability tie in IBs.

20

(c) Remedies for Transparency:

Well defined, consistent and transparent method of provision and reserve calculation

Improved corporate governance

Reveal ex-ante estimates and ex-post actual losses

Reveal the position and changes in the

PE Reserve and IR Reserve

21

Conclusions

What is needed

What can be done

22

Conclusions (contd.)

Development of liquidity management instruments

Development of Infrastructure institutions (LMC, IIFM)

Rethinking and development of new structure of Islamic banks (Separate treatment of Cur. and Inv. accounts)

23

Smooth Sailing

24

Excess Liquidity

State, Causes and

Management

25

Current state of liquidity in Islamic

Banks

 Excess Liquidity in the Market, resulting in serious business risk and affects the competitiveness of

IFIs due to no return or a very low returns.

 In a recent study it was discovered that Islamic financial institutions are almost 50% more liquid as compared to conventional financial institutions.

 Out of US$ 13.6 billion total assets of Islamic banks in the study US$ 6.3 billion were found to be in liquid assets.

26

Causes of Excess Liquidity

Factors internal to the bank

Factors external to the bank

27

Islamic Banks’ Asset Portfolio

5%

Mudharba

Shirakah Murabaha

67%

IB

Portfolio

Istisna’

Ijarah

Salam

28

Islamic Banks’ Assets Portfolio

15% murabahah musharakah mudarabah ijara others

7%

5%

6%

67%

Source: Iqbal Munawar, Ausaf Ahmad and Tariqullah Khan (1998), Challenges Facing Islamic

Banking , Jeddah: IRTI

29

Key Issues in Liquidity Management

Small No. of participants

No Lender of Last

Resort

Different Shari’a interpretation

Key Issues in

Liquidity

Management

No Islamic Interbank Market

Slow

Development

In

Islamic financial

Instruments

Absence of

Islamic Secondary market

Credit for this diagram: IIFM

30

Implications for Islamic Banks

Underutilization of financial resources

Lower income and higher cost

Loss of competitiveness

31

Current Practices in Managing

Excess Liquidity

Deposit Management

Secured Commodity Murabaha

Mudaraba Sukuk

Salam Sukuk

Leasing Sukuk

Musharakah Sukuk

Infrastructure Institutions

 Liquidity Management Center

 IIFM

32

How a Secured Commodity Murabaha Works:

Broke r

‘B’

Sell

(at a profit & deferred payment) Buy

Conventional

Bank

(Agent)

Pay (Spot)

Receive

( Sales proceeds at maturity)

Receive funds from Investor

(to pay Broker ‘A’)

Broker

‘A’

Settle Investor

(Sales proceeds less Agents fees)

Funds Flow

Commodity Flow

Islamic Bank / Investor

(Principal)

Credit for the diagram: IIFM

33

Advantage of SCM

Short-term therefore liquid

Buying and selling in same currency

(usually US$) therefore no FX risk

34

Problems with SCM

Flow of funds away from Muslim economies

Not contributing in any growth or development oriented economic activity

Limited scope for liquidity management: since transactions are mostly bilateral therefore counterparty limits apply

Always back to back murabaha is needed for maintaining liquidity

35

Salam Sukuk (Ex. of Bahrain)

Gov of Bahrain (GoB) undertakes to sell

Aluminum (deferred) for advance payment

BMA securitizes it by issuing salam sukuk

Individual IBs buy these to park their excess liquidity

IBs appoint GoB as their agent to receive delivery of commodity and sell it through its distribution channels

36

Salam Sukuk (contd.)

Similar to SCM but securitized

Advantages:

 Cost price need not be declared

Lower credit risk to bank due to sovereign counter-party

Lower cost (or higher return) to bank than in

SCM due to securitization

Funds utilized in the local economy until very near to delivery date

Disadvantage:

 Not trade-able therefore high liquidity risk

37

Bahrain Salam Sukuk (contd.)

Countr y

Issuer Type

Bahrain Bahrain

Monetary

Agency

Sukuk

Al Salam

(23 issues up to

April

2003)

Value

US$ 625

Million

(cumulat ive)*

Maturity

91 days for each issue

38

Structure of Malaysian Sukuk

Credit for this slide: BMA presentation, Feb., 2004.

39

Other sukuk and trade-able securities useful for liquidity management

Gov. Participation Certificates (Sudan)

Central Bank Participation Certificates

(Sudan)

Malaysian Global Ijarah Sukuk [US$500M]

First Global Sukuk Malaysia [US$150M]

Qatar Global Ijarah Sukuk [US$700M]

IDB Sukuk [US$400M]

Tabreed Global Ijarah Sukuk (Corporate)

[US$150M]

40

LM Infrastructure Institutions

IIFM

LMC

IsDB

Output

Country

Membership

 Facilitation in issuance of sukuk of

Bahrain and Malaysia 6 founding members

 Part of IIFM efforts.

 Facilitated cross listing of Bahrain and Malaysian sukuk

6 members

 Mother/Umbrella organization

 Development finance

 Research

54 countries

41

New Ideas: Good & Bad

42

Thank you

43

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