Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism
Opportunities in Asia
Ram M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of Technology
Thailand
25th March 2004
AIT
Presentation Outline

Economic Growth, Energy requirement and
CO2 emissions
 Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in Asia
 Types of Energy Related CDM Projects
 Potential CDM projects by sector
 Marginal Abatement Costs of Some Cleaner
Power Projects
 Final Remarks
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions
AIT
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.4
CO2
1.3
TPES
1.2
GDP
1.1
1990 value = 1.0
1990 value = 1
CO2 Emissions, Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP in OECD and
Developing Asia during1990 -1999
1.5
1.4
CO2
1.3
GDP
1.2
TPES
1.1
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
OECD
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Developing Asia
Source: IEA 2001
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CO2 Emissions: Share of Developing
Asia, OECD and other Regions
1981
1999
25%
30%
12%
58%
53%
OECD
OECD
22%
Asia
Asia
30%
Total Co2 emissiions in 1981 = 17815 milliom
tonnes
58%
Total Co2 emissiions in 1999 = 22818 milliom
tonnes
12%
Source: IEA 2001
AIT
30%
OECD
Developing Asia
Other regions
30%
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Supply and CO2
Emission during 1990-2000
GDP
(1995$)
TPES
CO2
2.25
1.65
1.12
1.29
1.82
1.15
Developing Asia
6.68
4.30
3.23
China
9.84
3.60
2.80
India
5.45
4.69
4.57
Thailand
4.36
8.09
7.22
Malaysia
6.56
8.13
6.87
South Korea
6.45
8.02
6.65
OECD
Japan
•TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply
•Growth of energy requirement and CO2 in Asia is way above
that of OECD countries
AIT
Source IEA 2001
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South Asia)
Energy Intensity
CO2 Intensity
30.0
2.50
25.0
20.0
kg CO2/1995 USD
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
35.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1999
0.00
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Srilanka
Pakistan
OECD
Nepal
1992
1993
1994
1995
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Srilanka
Pakistan
1996
1997
India
1998
1999
Nepal
OECD
Fossil fuel dependence
% Fossil fuel in TPER
105.00
• Energy and CO2 intensity in major
countries much higher than OECD
average
95.00
85.00
75.00
65.00
55.00
45.00
35.00
1992
Bangladesh
1993
Bhutan
1994
India
1995
1996
1997
Nepal
Srilanka
1998
Pakistan
1999
OECD
Data source: EIA website, March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South
East Asia)
CO2 Inte ns ity
30.00
25.00
1.80
20.00
1.60
15.00
1.40
10.00
5.00
0.00
1992
1993
Indonesia
1994
Thailand
1995
Laos
1996
Vietnam
1997
Malaysia
1998
1999
Philippines
kg CO2/1995 USD
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
Energy Intensity
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
OECD
0.20
0.00
1992
1993
Indonesia
Thailand
1994
Laos
Viet nam
1995
1996
Malaysia
1997
1998
Philippines
1999
OECD
Fossil fuel dependence
% Fossil fuel in TPER
110.00
100.00
Energy Intensity and CO2 intensity are
not only higher but also increasing in
most countries
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
OECD
1997
1998
1999
Philippines
Data source: EIA website, March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CO2 and Energy intensity and Fossil fuel dependence (Other Asia)
Ene rgy Inte ns ity
10.00
100.00
9.00
80.00
kg CO2/1995 USD
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
CO2 Intensity
120.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1992
South Korea
China
Mongolia
OECD
1993
Sout h Kor ea
1994
1995
China
1996
1997
Mongolia
1998
1999
OECD
Energy and CO2 intensity of China and
Mongolia are very high compared to OECD
average, though show a declining trend
Data source: EIA website, March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Projected CO2 emissions 2000-2025
million tonne CO2
CO2 emission projections
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
2000
2001
Developing countries
2005
2010
2015
Developed Countries
2020
2025
EE/FSU
Data source: EIA website, March 2004
AIT
•Without significant efforts in mitigation, Developing country
contribution to total world emissions will be higher than Developed
countries by 2020.
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Climate change and Sustainability
• Climate Change could adversely affect many
developing countries in the long run
• GHG Mitigation would enhance sustainable
development
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Cereal Production Impact of Climate Change
CGCM1, 2080s
Source: http://www.gfse.at/publ/Powerpoint/18%20Februar/18February_P2_01_IIASA_Shah.ppt
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Fossil fuel consumption increase has both
long and short term implications
On Environment – e.g., increased air
pollution
 On economy – e.g., dependency on imports
of energy

AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
PM10 concentration (1999) in selected cities in the
world
PM10, micrograms per cubic meter
200
160
120
80
40
D
elh
i
Ca
Ca i ro
lc
ul
t ta
T
Ch i anj
on i n
gq
ui
n
K g
an
p
Lu ur
ck
n
Sh ow
en
y
Zh ang
en
gz
ho
u
Jin
La an
nz
ho
u
Be
ji
Ta ng
i
A yua
hm
n
ed
ab
ad
Ja
ka
r
Ch t a
en
gd
u
0
Source: World Development Indicators 2003
Out of 16 cities in the world with PM10 concentration > 100 micrograms/m3, 15
cities are in Asia and 14 of them are in China and India.
AIT
SO2 concentration (1990-98) in the selected cities in the world
SO 2, micrograms per cubic meter
450
400
350
300
250
WHO guideline = 5 0 micrograms per cubic meter
200
150
100
50
i
oh
a
Sh ma
en
ya
ng
Be
i ji
ng
hu
Y
ok
u
pa
ns
zh
o
Li
u
La
n
w
n
os
co
M
ns
ha
ul
A
tan
b
Is
er
io
an
Ja
n
de
Jin
Ri
o
da
o
o
ui
ng
Zi
b
Q
G
ui
Ch yan
g
on
gq
ui
n
Ta g
iy
ua
n
Te
hr
an
0
Source: World Development Indicators 2003
Out of 30 cities exceeding WHO guideline in the world, 23 cities are in Asia
and 20 cities are only in China.
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy and Urban Air pollution
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Implications of growth on Development
Energy import dependency, %
Country/Region
China
India
Other South Asia
South East Asia
Developing Asia
OECD
1990
-3.4
16.1
40.2
-37.7
1.1
28.0
2000
5.9
27.1
45.5
-4.0
11.6
29.8
Import dependency is
increasing
Higher important
dependency can make
economies vulnerable to
fluctuations in energy
prices
This introduces long term
growth uncertainties
Data source: IEA (2002b)
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy Import Dependency (%)
Fuel Import Dependency of Thailand
under CO2 reduction targets
85
ER5
ER10
ER15
75
65
55
45
2000
AIT
Base case
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Primary Energy Mix under CO2 Emission Reduction Targets (1)

Coal
60
Mtoe
40
30
70
60
20
10
20
use
ER5
ER15
at all ER target
Coal use
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oil

Biom ass
60
Noticeable
Base
ER10
ER5
ER15
40
35
15
10
5
30
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
use under ER15.
20
Mtoe
45
Base
ER5
ER10
ER15

Natural gas share
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Prim ary Electricity
16
AIT
in Oil
25
50
14
12
under
ER15
10
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtoe
Base
ER10
50
40
30
55
Biomass
80
ER5
ER15
Mtoe
50
Base
ER10
Significant
Natural Gas
Base
ER5
ER10
ER15
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
What does Renewable Energy imply for
Sustainable Development?
Biomass – example of sustainable energy resource
 Biomass resource development helps mitigate
GHG emissions and provides sustainable
development benefits through rural employment
generation
 RETs like wind, solar, hydro also improve the
local environment
 CDM+Sustainable Development?

AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
NO2, SO2 Emissions in Thailand under CO2 Reduction Targets
Total NOx Emission
Total SO2 Emission
1,100
1,400
Base case
ER5
ER10
ER15
Thousand tons
900
800
1,200
Thousand tons
1,000
700
600
500
Base case
ER5
1,000
ER10
800
ER15
600
400
400
200
300
200
2000

0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2000
2030
Total cumulative NO2 emission in
ER15 8.6% less than in Base case
during 2000-2030


AIT
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total cumulative SO2 emission in
ER15 35.4% less than in Base case
during 2000-2030
SO2 reduction higher than NO2
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
The Factors for high CO2 growth in
developing countries

High growth in GDP
 High dependence on fossil fuel
 Inefficient use of energy resources
 What prospects for CDM?
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in
Asian Countries
AIT
Sectoral contribution to National CO2 eq. emissions
What are the sources of GHG emissions? And how big?
AZERBAIJAN
BANGLADESH
BHUTAN
CAMBODIA
INDONESIA
PAKISTAN
59886
76419
632
59445
883198
155287
Energy (%)
87.91
25.93
15.00
2.99
20.10
53.50
Fugitive emissions (%
of energy emissions)
17.68
0.74
0.00
0.00
10.77
7.01
Industrial Process (%)
2.41
1.95
21.16
0.08
0.00
7.26
Manure Management
(%)
1.05
2.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.59
Forest and Grassland
conversion (Gg)
-5.86
2.32
0.00
76.06
34.33
0.00
Solid Waste (%)
2.24
1.21
0.00
0.01
0.00
1.24
Wastewater treatment
1.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
Total Emissions and
Removals (Gg)
GHG emissions from National Communications ( year 1994)
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Contribution to country CO2 eq emissions
MALAYSIA
PHILIPPINES
144193
154812
56696
58.54
31.86
14.76
Industrial Process (%)
THAILAND
VIETNAM
285115
307621
29185
43.97
85.77
42.13
85.96
0.46
0.01
2.11
3.14
3.91
3.45
6.84
0.53
6.18
5.19
13.04
Manure Management
(%)
1.09
0.00
1.74
0.03
0.95
0.01
Forest and Grassland
conversion (Gg)
5.30
42.34
6.61
0.00
19.72
0.19
15.19
2.75
17.41
0.00
0.13
4.77
3.20
1.22
0.02
2.17
0.11
0.13
Total Emissions and
Removals (Gg)
Energy (%)
SRI LANKA
SOUTH
KOREA
Fugitive emissions (% of
energy)
Solid Waste (%)
Wastewater treatment
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sectoral Share in CO2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000
Elec. & Heat
Unalocated. autoproducers
Other Energy industries
Manu. & Ind.
Transport
Other
100
Sectoral share of CO2, %
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: World energy Council
• Electricity, Manufacturing & Industry and Transport are the main source of
energy related emissions
• In Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China and Thailand electricity sector
contributes 30-50% of energy related CO2 emissions
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sectoral Share in CO2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000
Elec. And Heat
Unallocated Autoproducers
Other Energy Industries
Manuf. & Ind
Transport
Other Sectors
Sectoral share of CO2 (%)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
M
A
TN
VI
E
TH
AI
LA
ND
ES
IL
IP
PI
N
PH
IA
LA
YS
M
A
KY
R
KO
YG
ZT
R
AN
EA
SI
A
NE
O
D
IN
B
AZ
ER
AR
M
E
N
AI
JA
N
IA
0%
Transport sector contributes around 30% in Srilanka, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
AIT
Manufacturing accounts for over 30% in China, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Vietnam
th
th
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24 – 26 March, 2004
Types of Energy Related CDM projects
– Energy efficiency improvement projects
– Fuel switching to cleaner fossil fuels
– Renewables projects
– Cogeneration
– Other projects
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
What are the prospects for energy
efficiency related CDM projects?

AIT
Gaps in energy efficiency can provide the
answer
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Efficiency gaps in Power

sector (1)
Supply Side
– Generation efficiency gap
– T & D efficiency gap

Demand side
– End use energy efficiency gap
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in Power sector (2)
Efficiency Gaps in Power Sector
Generation Efficiency Gaps

Large gap in generation efficiency of coal fired plants between most
Asian countries and the best practice country (BPC) in the world. Coal
fired power generation in Asia are approximately 9% less efficient as
compared to that in OECD.

The efficiency gaps are obviously much larger when they are measured
with reference to the efficiency of the best available technology (BAT).

There exists a large potential for the reduction of coal consumption and
CO2 emission if the electricity generation is based on BAT or best
practiced technology (BPT) instead of the existing inefficient
technologies.
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps – Coal
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Best Practice efficiency
na
ip
pi
ne
Th s
ai
la
nd
O
E
C
D
M
al
ay
si
a
Ja
pa
n
hi
ll
C
hi
si
a
A
P
V
ak
is
P
In
In dia
do
ne
si
a
ie
tn
am
Eff. gap
ta
n
%
Electricity generation efficiency for Coal in 1999
Data source: IEA, 2002
Efficiency gain by 1% in China and India would reduce CO2 by 24 and 11.6
million tonne respectively in 2000
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - Gas
Best Practice efficiency
Ch
in
a
M
al
ay
s ia
O
EC
D
In
do
ne
si a
Ja
pa
n
Th
ail
an
d
Vi
et
na
m
Eff. gap
As
ia
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
In
di
Ba
a
ng
lad
es
h
Pa
k is
ta
n
%
Electricity generation efficiency gap for Gas in 1999
Data source: IEA, 2002
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses

Large transmission and distribution efficiency gaps
0
5
10
Percent (%)
15
20
25
30
35
OECD
China
Thailand
Malaysia
World
Indonesia
Asia
Vietnam
Phillipines
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
India
Cambodia
Myanmar
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in Power sector (5)
Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses (contd..)

T&D losses as a percentage of total generation in some Asian
countries range from 14 % in Vietnam to as high as 32 % in
Myanmar.

T&D losses in a well designed system can normally be within 10%,
reducing technical losses appears to be a promising option for
reducing the generation requirements as well as reductions CO2
emissions.

1% of T&D loss reduction in Pakistan from 1995 to 2018 would
result in cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 24 to 26 million
tons.

Gross savings per kW of power demand avoided due to T&D loss
reduction could be in the range of $ 1372 to 1770, which are
significantly higher than the new T&D capacity cost per kW.
(Shrestha and Azhar, 1998)
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
End-use Device Efficiency Gaps
– Lamps: Lighting accounts for a large share in residential sectoral
electricity consumption (e.g., 28% in India, 32.8% in Pakistan, 32%
in Sri Lanka). Incandescent lamps, which use 3 to 4 times more
electrical energy than compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) are most
widely used in many Asian developing countries, e. g. India,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
– Air conditioners (ACs): Air conditioning accounts for a major share
of electricity consumption in the commercial sector. Its share varies
from 20% in Pakistan to 70% in Thailand. However, the widely
used ACs in Thailand till few years ago used about 45% more
electrical power than the efficient ones.
– Electric motors: Mostly, standard motors are used as industrial
drives in India, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Sri
Lanka. They are also used for agricultural water pumping in India.
The efficiency of these motors is, however 3 to 7% less than that of
energy efficient motors.
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
What environmental Benefits from improved energy
efficiency in the power sector?
Country
Planning
Period
CO2 (106 tons)
Emission reduction
SO2 (103 tons)
Emission reduction
NOx (103 tons)
Emission reduction
NREB, India
2003-17
538
1,744
965
Pakistan
2000-14
92
206.
313
Sri Lanka
2000-17
22
48
32
Thailand
2003-17
62
651
134
Vietnam
2003-17
115
123
391
Source: Shrestha and Bhattacharya (1998) and Shrestha and Bhattacharya (2002)
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Cleaner Thermal CDM Projects in
Selected Asian Countries
Candidate
CDM Project
Country
Capacity (MW)
IGCC
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Yunnan-China
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Yunnan-China
Sri Lanka
300
500
300
300
500
300
500
PFBC
CFBC
CC-LNG
Marginal
abatement cost
($/tonne CO2)
83
12
16
115
100
16
31
CO2 emission
reductions (106
tonnes)
2.0
10.0
9.2
0.8
4.0
9.2
15.3
Source: ARRPEEC (2003)
Wide variations in MAC for CTTs:
 IGCC:
12 $/tonne (Thailand) to 83 $/tonne of CO2(Sri Lanka)
 PFBC:
100 $/tonne (Thailand) to 115 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka)
 CC-LNG: 31 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka)
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Incremental cost of CO2 Abatement ($/ton CO2) in Thailand during
2000 – 2030
• At IAC of 28 $/tCO2, about 142
million tons of CO2 could be
mitigated (cumulative) during
2010-2030.
120
100
80
60
40
20
• At IAC of $46/ tCO2 and
$111/tCO2, 468 and 978 million
tons of CO2 (cumulative) could be
reduced respectively.
AIT
Total CO2 emission reduction (Million tons)
Incremental cost ($/tons)
• The average incremental cost of
CO2 abatement (IAC) would
increase from $28 per ton of CO2
in ER5 case to $111 per ton of
CO2 in ER15 case.
100
300
500
700
900
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
1,100
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Renewable CDM
Projects in Selected Asian Countries
In a study of selected RETs based CDM projects in Yunnan- China,
NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet nam by ARRPEEC (2003)
wide variations in MAC are observed:
Solar
PV: 12 $/tonne to 364 $/tonne of CO2
Wind:11 $/tonne to 36 $/tonne of CO2
Geothermal: 5 $/tonne to 73 $/tonne of CO2
BIGCC: 3 $/tonne to 94 $/tonne of CO2
Mini-Hydro: 2.2 $/tonne of CO2 (Thailand)
Limited prospect under presently relatively low CER price.
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy efficiency gap in steel making
Bars for each country / region refers to years 1980, 1990, and 2000 in that order
Source: www.worldenergy.org/ date 20th March 2004
Efficiency gap between Asian developing countries and Japan 0.4 toe/ton
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IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy efficiency gap in cement production
Source: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ies/iespubs/45292.pdf
•Emissions reduction of 29.7 Million tonne of CO2 in India and 260 million
tonne of CO2 in China if both countries can achieve best practice efficiency
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential for Cogeneration in ASEAN
Source: www.cogen2.net
Date: 16th March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sugar industries:
Fuel availability and cogeneration potential
Country
Sugar cane
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Bagasse
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Max. Power
Generation
Potential
(GWh/year)
Indonesia
31,000
8,990
2,997
Philippines
21,000
6,090
2,030
Thailand
54,000
15,660
5,220
Vietnam
12,000
3,480
1,160
118,000
34,220
11,407
Total
Bagasse = Sugar cane * 0.29; 1 kWh = 3 kg of bagasse (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net (Date: 16th March 2004)
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Palm oil industries:
Fuel availability and cogeneration potential
Country
FFB
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Residue
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Max.Power
Generation
Potential
(GWh/year)
Indonesia
25,000
10,500
4,200
Malaysia
42,000
17,640
7,056
300
126
50
2,300
966
386
69,600
29,232
11,693
Philippines
Thailand
Total
Residue = Fresh Fruit Bunch * 0.42; 1 kWh = 2.5 kg of residues (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Rice industries:
Fuel availability and cogeneration potential
Country
Indonesia
Paddy
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Rice husk
production
(1,000 tonnes)
Max. Power
Generation
Potential
(GWh/year)
51,000
11,220
7,480
2,000
440
293
Philippines
11,000
2,420
1,613
Thailand
22,000
4,840
3,227
Vietnam
28,000
6,160
4,107
114,000
25,080
16,720
Malaysia
Total
Rice husk = Paddy * 0.22; 1 kWh = 1.5 kg of rice husk (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Final Remarks
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AIT
Energy efficiency gaps and high dependence on fossil fuel present
challenges as well as opportunity: CDM as vehicle for Sustainable
Development
Not all energy efficient and renewable technologies necessarily meet
the economic criterion for CDM projects.
Economic viability also depends upon the market for Certified
Emission Reductions (CERs). Presently, demand for CER is low hence
the low price for CER (2 to 3 $/t CO2).
Several energy efficient technologies (EET) and RET projects may
appear economically unattractive as CDM projects at present due to
low market demand and price for CER.
However if countries like U.S. and Russia are to ratify the Kyoto
protocol, market for CDM will grow significantly, resulting in higher
CER prices and more CDM projects would than be economically
attractive.
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Final Remarks (2)

Incremental CO2 abatement cost for a CDM project can
vary across countries.
 Regional level energy development may offer larger
potential for CDM projects in South Asia.
 Careful cost benefit analysis of potential projects necessary
 Capacity building is essential for CDM project preparation
and implementation in the South Asian countries.
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Specific energy consumption of various
types of brick Kilns (tonnes of coal equivalent per
100, 000 bricks)
Clamp Kiln: 30-48
Bull’s Trench Kiln: 20-24
Fixed Chimney: 16-20
Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln: 10-13
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential and installed capacity of selected RETs in selected Asian
Countries
Country
Potential
Solar
Installed Capacity (MW)
Wind
Biomass
Mini
Solar
(MW)
(MW)
Hydro
(PV)
Wind Biomass
Mini
Hydro
(MW)
India
7 kWh/
m 2/day
Sri Lanka
5.4
20,000
200
17,000 10,000
10,000
57
1702
98
217
88
0.360
3
-
12.5
200
0.130
-
-
4.87
kWh/m2/day
Nepal
3-4
200
kWh/m2/day
Source: www. teriin.org; RETs Asia, 2003; Wind Energy Monthly
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Marginal Abatement Costs in the Power sector
$/tonne of CO2 at 1998 prices
Country/Regions
Yunnan-China
CO2 emission reduction targets
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.0
4.3
7.3
7.9
NREB-India
1.8
3.4
5.4
-
-
-
12.5
-
15.5
18.3
Thailand
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.5
4.3
Vietnam
2.4
2.8
3.2
4.1
5.5
Sri Lanka
Source: ARRPEEC (2003)
MAC Ranges from:
 1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 5% reduction target
 2.8 to 12.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 10% reduction target
 3.1 to 7.3 $/tonne of CO2 at 15% reduction target
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
30%
10.6
Average unit consumation of energy for cement
production
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CO2 emission from Cement
–Project by Cement plant in India – increasing flyash content in cement from
AIT
10% to 13% - results in emission reduction from 0.813 tCO2/t cement (process
emission + thermal energy emission + electricity energy emission) – for a
annual production of 1.83 million ton production emission reduction is 22467
tCO2
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy related CO2 emission by region
Developing countries CO2 emission to exceed that of industrialized countries by
2025. Presents challenges and opportunities for mitigation.
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Implications of growth on Development
AIT
•Increased urban pollution – developing country cities are the most
polluted cities today
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Major sources of emission
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AIT
Energy consumption is the major source of GHG
emissions
In some countries Fugitive emissions (Azerbaijan,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan) fugitive emissions from gas
production are significant
Industrial process emissions for almost all some countries
are significant – cement sector primarily
Solid waste and industrial waste related emissions for
Malaysia, Sri lanka, Kyrgyzstan are significant
Forest and Grassland conversions represent deforestation
related emissions – countries like Philippines, Thailand,
Malaysia have very high emissions from this category
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sustainable development

Issues in growth in energy requirement
– Huge investment outlay to meet the growth


Energy production infrastructure ( USD 1000 billion in next 10
years for India to meet just the electricity generation
infrastructure)
Energy distribution infrastructure
– Import dependency can seriously affect economic
stability
– Environmental implications
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AIT
Urban air pollution due to increased fuel use in transportation
Waste generation and disposal (e.g., coal ash)
Indoor health issues in rural areas
Acid rains – SO2 emissions in South Asia and South East Asia
are expected to grow 150% and 200% over 2002 by 2030
under certain growth scenarios
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Sustainable development

Waste management
– MSW in South Asia and South East Asia 150% and 100% (200
–
–
–
–

million ton and 100 million ton respectively) by 2030
Air and water pollution from disposal of solid waste in urban areas
Water pollution from industrial waste
Opportunity cost of Land for disposal of waste is high – a serious
problem
Agriculture residue and animal waste in rural area - air pollution
as well as loss of resource
Forests
– Ecological impacts of forest degradation and deforestation
– Loss of livelihoods for population dependent on forest in
developing countries
– Climatic impacts on forest will be enhanced
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Types of CDM projects & SD

Energy sector – key to sustainable economic
development
– Reducing costs of energy infrastructure

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Efficiency in supply (better technologies; cogeneration)
Efficiency in use (steel, cement, waste heat recovery,
residential, etc. )
– Environmental benefits
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AIT
Fuel options (coal to oil/gas; oil to gas; fossil fuel to renewable
energy)
Use of agri waste and renewable to meet rural energy demand
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Types of CDM projects & SD

Waste management
– Urban solid waste – methane capture and use

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Reduce air pollution
Reduce water pollution
Reduce requirement for land
Provides alternative energy resources lower dependence on
fossil fuel
– Agriculture residue and animal waste
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AIT
Indoor health using biogas
Rural electricity – residential and for economic growth
Forests – ecological protection
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Submitted W-t-E projects
Project
Title
Waste
Annual
handled per Electricity
day (tonne) produced
(MWh)
Emission
reduction
(methane
capture) (T
CO2 eq)
Emission
reduction
(fossil fuel
displaced)
(T CO2 eq
Salvador
Landfill
capture
3150
315000
904942
157500
Biomethana 300
tion,
Lucknow
40000
101848
30000
Landfill gas 2000
capture,
Brazil
288
51000
Durban
landfill
67800
384512
AIT
Other
benefits
75 tpd of
organic
manure
56960
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CDM – SD in developing countries
Development
Climate
CDM and SD spac
Energy (supply an
demand)
Waste
management
(urban and
agriculture)
Forestry
Environment
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Share of Energy Sector GHG Emissions

IEA estimates that at the global level, carbon emissions from
energy related activities represent about 70% of all GHG
emissions. Non-carbon energy-related emissions represent
another 10-15%.
Source: World Energy Council (http://www.worldenergy.org/ accessed on 3
March 2004 )

AIT
The U.S. energy sector CO2 emission in 1997 accounted for 86% of
total GHG emissions of the country (Toman, 2001).
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South Asian Countries,
2000
Commercial Energy Consumption1
Total
(Quadrillion
Natural
Btu)
Petroleum Gas
Coal Nuclear Hydroelectric Other
Carbon
Dioxide
Emissions3
(Million
metric tons
of carbon)
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
0.50
0.01
12.67
0.004
0.06
1.91
0.18
30%
24%
32%
100%
57%
41%
78%
68%
0%
7%
0%
0%
42%
0%
1%
21%
53%
0%
14%
5%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
55%
6%
0%
24%
12%
22%
0%
0%
0.2%
0%
5%
0%
0%
7.7
0.1
253.3
0.1
0.8
29.5
2.6
Total
15.28
34%
13%
44%
1%
7%
0.2%
294.1
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, May 2002
Share of fossil fuels ranges from 45% (Bhutan) to 99% (Bangladesh). Coal
share highest in India (53%).
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South-east Asian
Countries, 2000
Total
(Quad
BTU)
Cambodia
Petrole
um
Natural
Gas
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Geotherm
al etc.
CO2
0.01
94.63
0.00
0.00
5.37
0.00
0.00
0.15
39.67
25.77
3.13
63.95
6.91
0.43
0.03
831.74
Indonesia
4.63
46.94
27.84
19.59
2.26
0.00
1.11
87.13
Korea, North
2.84
6.16
0.00
86.04
7.80
0.00
0.00
67.19
Korea, South
8.06
55.06
10.24
21.04
0.30
13.28
0.06
120.80
Laos
0.01
36.73
0.00
0.18
91.15
0.00
0.00
0.10
Malaysia
2.27
42.06
42.12
3.62
3.27
0.00
0.00
36.15
Mongolia
0.07
26.53
0.00
71.52
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.59
Philippines
1.25
56.74
0.55
16.32
6.55
0.00
20.36
18.62
Thailand
2.90
55.78
28.17
12.68
2.22
0.00
0.83
48.49
Vietnam
0.76
50.54
6.26
20.26
22.94
0.00
0.00
12.56
China
CO2emission are in million metric ton of CO2 equivalent;
Energy consumption by fuel source is in %age
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Technical Potential for Primary Energy Savings in Steel making in 1995
If India reduces energy intensity of steel production by 10% (3.7 GJ/tonne) –
total energy saved will be 88 million GJ (4.6 million tonnes of Coal equivalent)
per year in 1995
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in industrial sector

Iron and Steel industry

Cement industry

Co-generation: Co - generation efficiency = upto 90%
Conventional power efficiency = about 35%
– Sugar Industry
– Pulp and Paper Industry

Efficient brick kilns

Electricity DSM programs in industry
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel
dependence
CO2 intensity
Energy Intensity
2
35.00
1.5
OECD
Non-OECD
1
0.5
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
kg CO2/ 1995 USD
2.5
30.00
25.00
20.00
OECD
15.00
Non-OECD
10.00
5.00
0.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Fossil Fuel Dependence
% Fossil fuel in TPER
92.00
Higher growth rates of non-OECD energy
and CO2 emissions due to :
90.00
88.00
86.00
OECD
84.00
Non-OECD
82.00
80.00
78.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Data source: EIA website, March 2004
AIT
•Significantly higher energy and CO2
emission intensities
•Higher dependence on fossil fuels
•Higher GDP growth rates
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Natural Gas Reserves in Selected Asian Countries
800
billion cu m
600
400
200
0
Myanmar
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Source:http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/bm.html
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
CDM projects through regional energy trade/development in
South Asia

Hydropower development (e.g. in Nepal and Bhutan)
– Displacement of thermal in India and other countries

Natural gas based electricity generation
- Exploration and regional development of gas pipeline in Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh
Fuel switching:
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AIT
oil to gas in transport sector
coal/oil to gas in industrial boilers
coal/oil to gas for cooking
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in Transport sector

Electric vehicles (with Non thermal power
supply)
 Electric rope - ways (with Non thermal
power supply)
 Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) (with Non
thermal power supply)
 Use of Bio-diesel/ethanol/methanol etc.
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in Residential sector

Cooking
– Use of biogas as a cooking fuel
– Improved cook stoves
– Biomass plantation for fuelwood

Lighting
– CFL, Slim tubes, electronic ballast

Water heating
– Solar Water heater
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Potential CDM projects in Commercial sector

DSM programs
– Efficient A/Cs, Refrigerators, Lamps
AIT
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Types of steel projects

pulverized coal injection up to 40% in the blast
furnace (primary steel)
 Heat recovery from sinter plants and coke ovens
(primary steel)
 Recovery of process gas from coke ovens, blast
furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces
– Steel plant in India, producing 1.6 million ton steel has
submitted CDM project for recovery of BOF gas (80
NM3 per ton of steel with calorific value 2000
kcal/NM3) – will result in 94.84 GWh of electricity and
resultant emission reduction of 87895 tCO2.(15 MWh
coal power plant)

AIT
Power recovery from blast furnace offgases
(primary steel)
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Types of steel projects

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AIT
Replacement of open-hearth furnaces by basic
oxygen furnaces (primary steel);
Application of continuous casting and thin slab
casting;
Scrap preheating in electric arc furnaces
(secondary steel);
Oxygen and fuel injection in electric arc furnaces
(secondary steel);
Efficient ladle preheating;
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004