Structural changes of global poultry
production and the impact on the
environment, including on poultry
genetic resources
Irene Hoffmann and Pierre Gerber, Animal Production and Health
Division, FAO
Guidance for the poultry sector – issues and options
Joint FAO-WPSA Symposium at EPC, Tours, France, 24 August 2010
Contents
• Poultry production and
consumption
• Structural change
• Environmental impact
• Poultry genetic diversity
• Conclusions
Poultry production and consumption
100
200
300
400
500
Consumption of livestock products is growing rapidly
1960
1970
1980
Roots and tubers
Meat
Eggs
1990
2000
2010
Cereals
Milk
Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)
Calorie and protein consumption from poultry
• 90 mill t meat, 63 mill t eggs (2007)
• 28% of world meat production
• 2.5% consumption increase globally, 3.4% in
LDC to 2030
• low consumer price
Growth in production: animal numbers and yields
10.0
Average annual growth (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Numbers
Yield
Pig
Numbers
Yield
Numbers
Poultry
Yield
Cattle
Numbers
Yield
Milk
Numbers
Yield
Eggs
-2.0
East and Southeast Asia
(1980-2007)
Latin America and the Caribbean
South Asia
Near East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Structural change
Contribution of livestock production systems to food production
Global
Developing countries
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
industrial
mixed irrigated
40%
60%
industrial
mixed irrigated
40%
mixed rainfed
mixed rainfed
grazing
20%
grazing
20%
0%
0%
beef mutton pork poultry milk
meat
eggs
beef mutton pork poultry milk
meat
data: 2001-2003, Steinfeld et al 2006
68% of eggs and
74% of poultry
meat globally from
industrial systems
eggs
Estimated global distribution of poultry
Estimated distribution of industrially produced poultry
populations
Geographical concentration of poultry production
Three types of clusters
• Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)
• Close to feed resources (well developed transport
infrastructure)
• In areas characterized by low human population density
(environmental regulations)
Changes in geographic concentration of hens in Brazil
from 1992 - 2001
Spatial distribution around Bangkok
40
140
human pop (p/km2/10)
Human / animal density
Humans,
livestock
and feedcrops, 2001
chicken (nb/km2/10)
maize (tons/km2)
100
30
soybean (10*tons/km2)
cassava (tons/km2/2)
80
20
60
40
10
20
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Distance to Bangkok (km)
400
450
500
Mean normalised crop production
pigs (nb/km2)
120
Feed
Growing intensities: based on expanding concentrate use
feed concentrate use in 2002, million tons
700
600
fish meal
roots/tubers
oilcakes
oilseeds
brans
grains
500
400
300
200
100
0
developing
developed
Increasing trade of feedstuff
Soybean imports (tons)
Maize imports (tons)
45,000,000
90,000,000
40,000,000
80,000,000
35,000,000
70,000,000
30,000,000
60,000,000
China
25,000,000
China
50,000,000
Asia
20,000,000
World
Asia
40,000,000
15,000,000
30,000,000
10,000,000
20,000,000
5,000,000
10,000,000
0
World
0
1973
1983
1993
2003
1973
1983
1993
2003
developing countries: trade deficit in coarse grain
Livestock production and ecosystems
Livestock production and ecosystems
• Land
– 26% of emerged land used as pasture/rangeland
– 33% of crop land dedicated to feed production
• Water
– 8% of water use mostly for feed
– alters the status of the resource (quality and quantity)
• Biodiversity
– wildlife: follow on effects of habitat degradation and
destruction
– narrowing agricultural biodiversity
• Climate
– 18% of anthropogenic emissions when taking a food chain
approach
– main causes: deforestation, manure management and
enteric fermentation
Projected poultry manure production in Vietnam
1,800,000
Manure production 2003
in tons
Manure production 2015
in tons
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Total
Backyard and
small scale
Medium scale
Large scale
industrial
Ducks
Nutrient overload
Estimated
contribution of
livestock to total
P2O5 supply on
agricultural land,
in areas
presenting a
P2O5 mass
balance of more
than 10 kg per
hectare (1998 to
2000).
Trouble at the mouth of the Mississippi
http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/docs/hypoxia/satimgMorePic.asp?pic=HypoWebTrueColor.jpg
GHG emissions from livestock: a food chain approach
STEP IN FOOD
CHAIN
ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS
ESTIMATED CONTRIBUTION
BY SPECIES
Cattle
Pigs
Poultry
Small
rum’ts
(gigatonnes)
(percent of
sector)
LULUC
2.50
36
***
*
*
ns
Feed production
0.40
7
*
**
**
ns
Animal production
1.90
25
***
*
*
*
**
Manure mgmt
2.20
31
**
***
ns
ns
Processing and
transport
0.03
1
*
*
***
ns
LCA for 1 MT of broiler
Pelletier, 2008
Livestock related LUC: Deforestation in the Neotropics
Main direct
drivers of
change of
biodiversity in
ecosystems
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/
GraphicResources.aspx
Poultry genetic diversity
Local and transboundary avian breeds
10%
9%
Regional
80
4%
International
89%
Local
7%
8%
7%
160
1 946
66%
Ce
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Af
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Ea
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Af
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Ea
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No
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Origin of chicken breeds, by subregion
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
international
regional
local
Trends within breeding industry
• higher capital investment - vulnerability
– high cost for Genomic selection
– regulation/standards: biosecurity, welfare etc
• merger and concentration – economies of scale
– implications for genetic diversity?
• vertical integration, spread risk downstream
• strategic research partnerships with (public)
universities, access to public R&D funds
Productivity differential (production/head)
1961
1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Eggs,
primary
117
95
63
47
45
53
Poultry
meat
24
19
20
27
29
31
Partial factor productivity differential between selected developed
countries with commercial breeding programmes in all species, and
the rest of the world (Production/head)
selected developed countries: European Union, USA, Canada,
Australia, New Zealand.
data: FAO STAT, 2009
Implications for developing countries
• < 3 % of total global livestock R&D investment to
poultry
• increasing divide between scientific haves and nonhaves
– high market access barriers
• import of GP/PS stock or day-old chickens
– low incentives to build own breeding programmes;
• little characterization, conservation
Countries reporting breeding programmes
Structured breeding programmes
Chicken
20
Turkey
5
Ducks
8
Geese
4
FAO, 2007
Status of poultry GR conservation
• 26 countries with in situ /
ex situ poultry conservation
programmes
–
–
–
–
24 chicken
7 duck
2 geese
2 turkey
• 11 cryo-conservation
programmes for semen,
tissue or DNA
• 50% run by government
FAO, 2007
Proportion of the world’s breeds by risk status
All species
7%
9 % extinct
20 % at risk
36 % unknown
critical
1%
critical-maintained
10%
endangered
36%
endangered-maintained
3%
extinct
9%
not at risk
unknown
Avian
Mammalian
5%
12%
34%
1%
1%
8%
2%
35%
11%
38%
40%
16%
2% extinct
31% at risk
40% unknown
FAO, 2009
4%
2%
25%
Ce
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As
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N
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&
W
Af
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Ea
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Af
So
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Af
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Ea
Eu
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Eu
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&
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No
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Am
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SW ica
Pa
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fic
Risk status of chicken breeds, by subregion
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
unknown
extinct
at risk
not at risk
Threats to poultry genetic resources
Status of animal health
100%
Poor conservation strategies
90%
80%
Lack of functional institutional
frameworks
70%
Weak livestock sector policies
and strategies
60%
50%
Socio-political changes and
instabilities
40%
Loss of human resources
30%
20%
Replacement of breed functions
10%
Economic and market drivers
0%
Developed
Developing
310 responses, first threat for breeds being at-risk
Conclusions
Environment
• Protein-energy return on investment 18% for broiler, 7% for
eggs (Pelletier, 2008)
• In most cases, farm level environmental issues are limited
• FCR reduction = reduced land used to grow feed + GHG
emission/output
• Most of the poultry sector’s environmental impacts are
associated with the feed base : deforestation, intensive
agriculture, nutrient and water cycles, esp. in regions
characterised by high animal concentration
Genetic diversity
• High share of transboundary breeds
• Intensification and commercialization lead to loss of diversity
• Conservation supported by hobby breeders and sociocultural functions
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/A5.html