FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS
THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES
Washington / USA - October, 28th 2008 - OAS
Roberto Rodrigues
The ten biggest problems for the
humanity in the next 50 years
AGRICULTURE
Energy
Education
Water
Democracy
Food
Population
Environment
Disease
Poverty
Terrorism & war
Source: Alan MacDiarmid, em São Carlos – SP
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Trends
Changes in the demand:
Sustainability:
Economical, social and environmental
-
flavor
quality
traceability
health
environment
organic products
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Trends
Demographic trends:
Increase.%
2000-2025
Part.%
2025
China
13.2%
17.4%
India
36.6%
16.8%
Africa
68.9%
15.4%
World
33.9%
100%
Food Demand
(2000 – 2025)
Source: Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol. 27, nº 03 (março/2007)
Elaboration: GV Agro
+ 62.0%
Trends
billion of people
Projection of the urban and rural population in the world
Rural
Urban
Source: ONU
Elaboration: GV Agro
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Trends
Evolution of GDP (2006-2013)
- World: 4.6% a.a
- Countries of G-7: 2.2% a.a
- Developing countries: 7.1% a.a
Participation in the world GDP
2006
2013
Countries of G-7
Países do G-7
59.5%
53.6%
Others devoloped
15.8%
15.6%
Developing countries
24.7%
Source: FMI
Nota: PIB a preços de 2005
30.8%
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World: offer and estimated demand for food
(in million tons)
Source: FAO (2003)
Elaboration: AGE – MAPA
¹ all of consumed meats
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Global stockpiles
Source: USDA (out/08)
Elaboration GV Agro
Global stocks of grains
Production x Consumption*: total in the period (2000/01-2007/08)
Brazil produces surpluses to supply the world stocks
Source: USDA
Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat and Barley. In thousand tons
Elaboração: GV Agro
Brazilian agribusiness exports
Main products (by value) - 1965
Source: UN COMTRADE
Elaboration: GV Agro
Agribusiness Exports:
Total Brazilian Exports:
US$ 1.35 billion (84.4%)
US$ 1.59 billion
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Brazilian agribusiness exports
Main products (by value)
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Brazilian Agribusiness Exports
US$ 20.5 bi
US$ 63.9 bi
Developing Countries
from US$ 6.2 bi to US$ 29.1 bi
Variation (2000-2008*): +21.3% a.a.
Developed Countries
from US$ 14.4 bi to US$ 34.8 bi
Variation (2000-2008*): +11.7% a.a.
Source: Aliceweb-MDIC.
Nota: * from jun/07toa mai/08
Elaboration: GV Agro
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Brazilian production of grain
- 27.2 million tons
The use of high technology resulted on an increase of 99% in
productivity at the period from 1990/1991 to 2007/08.
Source: CONAB
Elaboration: GV Agro
* 1ª Estimate (october/2008)
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Brazil: meat production
Broiler +200%
Beef +77%
Pork +130%
Sources: ABIEC, ABEF e ABIPECS
Notes: *Estimative
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21st Century: the beginning of a New Era
%
Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCES
Up to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%.
Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MaConald, 1998 and Energy Information Administration - EIA/USA
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Why biofuels?
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Organization of the market
• More countries producing
• Elimination of myths
• Global strategy
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More countries producing
Energetic matrix – Brazil and World
World
Brazil
Participation in the total consumption
Renewable sources:
45.8%
2.1%
48.5%
100%
World total: 11,434 Mtep
Source: MME/BEN (2007)
Elaboration: GV Agro
In 2007, sugarcane became the second
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main source of energy in Brazil.
More countries producing
Energy: consumption per capita (2006)
Tropical region: favourable to
the sugarcane production
100 countries could supply biofuels to 200 nations, while currently
20 oil producers provide fossil fuels to the rest of the World.
19
Tons oil equivalent
Source: BPStatistical Review of World Energy
Elaboration:21/03/2016
GV Agro
Market potential for ethanol
Substitution of part of the gasoline 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 and E-20
World: potential demand for ethanol (billion liters / year)
Demand for planted area
34,4 million ha
(using E-20)
Worldwide demand for ethanol in the 3 cenarios (billion liters / year): 60.1
Sources: IEA, CONAB e IBGE
Notas: para o cálculo da área, considerou-se um rendimento de 7.000 litros/ha.
120.2 and 240.5
Elaboration: GV Agro
There is still a lot of arable land worldwilde
“Taking these data at face value, and in relative terms, there is greatest potential for
agricultural expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South and Central America, which
together form over 70% of the global potential increase.”
Source: LAND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS AT REGIONAL AND COUNTRY LEVELS FAO Rome, 2000
Ethanol world production: projection to 2012
Note: projections 2008/2012 are based on the capacity of production and the target of consumption of the main countries
Source: Fapri, Acti, FO Licht, Unica and Toepfer
Elaboration: UNICA
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Eliminating all myths
Emissions of CO2 in 2005: 20 main polluters
50% of
emissions
Source: Embrapa Monitoramento por Satélite
Elaboration: GV Agro
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Emission of GHG through the replacement
of gasoline by ethanol
Ethanol from corn
(USA)
Ethanol from beet
(E.U)
Ethanol from
sugarcane (Brazil)
Compared to diesel, biodiesel reduces
in about 50% of the CO2 emissions.
The replacement of 1,000 buses (diesel) by buses that use ethanol
would avoid the emission of 96 tons of CO2 per year, equivalent
to emissions of 20,000 cars with gasoline.
Since 1970, is estimated that the use of ethanol in Brazil has avoided emissions 24
of 644 million tons of CO2 and 25.8 million tons last year.
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Eliminating all myths
Production with sustainability
Source: IBGE and CONAB
Eliminating all myths
Sugarcane: evolution of the productivity
7.1 million of ha
were preserved
Production
(million tons)
Preserved Area **
Planted Area
(million ha)
Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário: 1970-1975-1980-1985; PAM (1990 até 2006); e LSPA (2007 e 2008)
Elaboration: GV Agro
Note: * Estimate
**Area calculated by the productivity of 1970
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Eliminating all myths
Balance of energy
Energy contained in the fuel / Used fossil energy to produce fuel
9.3
* Fuel completely not renewable has value lower than 1.
* Values superior to 1 indicate how much renewable is the fuel.
Source: World Watch Institute
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US$/l gasoline equivalent
Biofuels: production costs
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
Energy costs
Processing
costs
Feedstock
costs
Co-product
value
04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07 04 05 06 07
Ethanol
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Ethanol
Ethanol
Sugar cane
Maize
Rape oil
Sugar beet
Wheat
Brazil
USA
EU
EU
EU
Year, fuel type, country
Source: OECD
Net price
gasoline
Net costs, total
million of vehicles
Brazil: Automobiles and light vehicles – fleet
projection (2006 to 2015)
Sources: ANFAVEA, MAPA and ICONE
Soil and climate adapted to the
sugarcane production without irrigation
Eliminating all myths
Excluded the Amazon Region,
Pantanal and declivity
superior to 12%
Source: UNICAMP
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Eliminating all myths
Brazil: herd of cattle x pasture
pasture area
cattle (heads)
More efficient livestock
Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário) e IEA/SP
liberation of land for the agriculture
Elaboration: GV Agro
*lotação média de São Paulo (2006)
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Global strategy
Energy content of the sugarcane
Energy contained in 1,000 tons of sugarcane
(tons in petroleum equivalent )
Total energy: 162.59 tons in petroleum equivalent
Source: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000
Global strategy
Estimates of the potential of bioeletricity in Brazil
The bagasse resulting from the processing of the cane represents 30%
of the total volume. Raw material for the bioeletricity production
Source: Cogen and Unica
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Participation of the products in the income of the sector
Exports
Ethanol
Bioelectricity
- Potential -
Domestic
51%
Exports
Sugar
Domestic
32%
Source: UNICA
Note: For the calculation of the percentile of 2015/16 it was used as base the potential for production and export at constant prices of 2006.
Challenges to the sector
• Commercial limitations?
- protected markets
- internal oil protection
- self-sufficiency (target of the countries)
- low/high prices cycles
• Constant Expansion of the Offer
- offer and demand balance
- investments
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Challenges to the sector
• Sectorial Regulation
• Research and Development
• Planning
• Administration
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The ethanol certifications “Babel”
National Certifications
EU Directives
European Union
Biofuel Certification
Meó Consulting Team
German Government
Sustainable Production of Biomass
Cramer Commission
Dutch Government
ETHANOL
PBCB
Brazilian Biofuel
Program Certification
Brazilian Government
RTFO
Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
UK Government
Institutional Certifications
RTSB
Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels
Based in Switzerland
BSI
Better Sugarcane Initiative
Based in United Kingdom
Deprived certifications
SEKAB, GREENERGY
Sweden, United Kingdom
Certifications
proliferation
schemes is counterproductive:
discourages initiatives and
investments, particularly in
developing countries.
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Thank You!
 gvagro@fgv.br
 +55
(11) 3281-3645
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