Trevor Ahbleza Crazy Horse Stanley
Bachelors of Arts, Economics
Advisor: Dr. Julianne Treme, PH.D.
Department of
Economics
Introduction
Offensive strategies of the National Football League have
seemingly shifted towards a “West Coast” style offense, relying
more heavily on passing as a means of scoring touchdowns than the
more conventional rushing approach. I examine the question of
whether adopting the strategy of passing more frequently than
rushing resulted in a statistically significant increase in games won
from 2006 to 2008.
I used Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis to generate an
equation estimating the determinants of current regular season
wins. Since the Media Exposure variable was not normally
distributed, I used a log transformation to normalize the data.
Potential determinants of current year wins include team strategy,
media exposure, previous year playoff experience and regular
season wins, average points per game, conference dummy
variables, and variables that reflect whether or not a team has a
new coach and stadium.
Variables
Equation
Wins=ƒ(Media, Prior Playoffs,
Rushing %, Points, Prior Wins,
Conference, New Stadium)
Variables
Description
Mean
Standard
Deviation
Regression
Model A
Regression
Model B
Regression
Model C
LOG Media
Number of
times top four
players
appeared in
media.
Dummy
variable
indicating
previous year
playoff
appearance
Average points
per gamein the
current season
2.839
.963
.60025
(.20348)***
.55704
(.20181)***
.62631
(.21087)***
.375
.487
2.5114
(.4616)****
2.60173
(.45507)****
2.50294
(.48076)****
21.45
8
4.489
.31949
(.05064)****
.24650
(.04918)****
.38458
(.0669)****
rushing yards
as a
percentage of
total offense
Number of
rushing yards
.355
.065
9.72321
(2.87889)***
-
-
Playoffs
Points
Percent
rushing
Rushing yards
Dependent Variable
Current regular season wins over three seasons: 2006-2007, 20072008, and 2008-2009.
Independent Variables
Wins: Number of regular season wins
Log Media: Number of times the top four offensive and defensive
players were mentioned with first and last name in both Sports
Illustrated and Sporting News.
Playoffs: Dummy variable indicating whether the team earned a
playoff berth the previous season
Points: Average points per game in the current season
Percent Rushing: Rushing yards divided by the sum of rushing and
passing yards.
Rushing : Number of rushing yards in current season.
Passing: Number of passing yards in current season.
AFC: Dummy variable indicating whether the team was in the AFC.
Stadium: Dummy variable indicating whether the team is playing in
a new stadium in the current season.
Previous year wins: Number of regular season wins in the previous
season
Conclusion
1,835
346
-
.00190
(.000539)****
-
Passing yards
Number of
passing yards
3,362
590
-
-
-.00109
(.00043)**
AFC
conference
Dummy
AFC or NFC
conference
Dummy
variable
If a new
stadium was
built within
the last year
Number of
wins in the
previous year
.5
.5
-.37840
(.34918)
-.40477
(.34666)
-.42788
(.35799)
.03
.175
1.27548
(1.03494)
1.25744
(1.02631)
.96332
(1.05336)
8
3.176
.04486
(.06298)
.04805
(.06254)
.04338
(.06504)
-
-
-
.712
.715
.696
Number of
observations
per variable
96
96
96
96
96
New
Stadium
Dummy
Previous year
Wins
Adjusted R^2
Observations
Statistical significance denoted on chart as follows:
*= 10%; **= 5%; ***= 1%; ****<.1%.
Consistent with the original hypothesis, the number of current year
wins depends on team strategy. Regression Model A suggests that a ten
percent increase in Percent Rushing, or rushing as a percentage of total
offensive yards, increases current season wins by nearly one game. As
the average team over the three seasons in question dedicated only
35.5% of their offense to rushing, increasing this percentage to 45% was
not unheard of in the league. Similarly, Regression Model B implies that
500 additional rushing yards generates approximately one additional
regular season win. Conversely, Regression Model C indicates that 500
additional passing yards decreases the number of current season wins by
roughly half of a game.
Practical application of these variables seems to be backed by logic
and readily observable patterns. As strong teams finish a winning game,
they tend to rush more in an attempt to burn the clock, while the losing
team tends to toss up long passes in a last ditch effort to salvage the
game. This strategy will inevitably bring more passing yards to a team
even in the event of a loss, while the winning team gains rushing yards
and wins.
Log Media was statistically significant in all regression models,
indicating that the offensive and defensive leaders of a team are turning
in noteworthy performances over the course of the season. If media
exposure increases by 50 percent, current year wins will increase by
approximately 1/3 of a game. Though the coefficients are significant, the
economic effects are small.
Other results suggest that a team will win approximately 3 more
games in the current regular season if the team earned a playoff berth in
the previous season. Similarly, four additional points per regular season
game translates into approximately 1.2 more current season wins.
All regression models indicate that conference affiliation, whether a
team is playing in a new stadium, and previous year wins are not
significant determinants of current regular season wins.
Future studies on this topic should consider expanding the time period
and including defensive variables in an attempt to bring further clarity to
the subject. However, in light of the findings of this study, it seems
entirely plausible to say that a strong running game is essential for most
teams even in today’s passer-friendly era.